LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 16. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tänast makrokalendrit vaadates võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda Inglise keskpanga inflatsiooniraport, millele lisaks avaldatakse veel Suurbritannia tööturu viimased näitajad. USA sessiooni eel avalikustatakse aga jaanuarikuus alustatud elamuehituste arv, välja jagatud ehituslubade number ning tootjahinnaindeksid (kell 15.30). kell 16.15 teatatakse jaanuari tööstustoodangu kasv ning hiljem õhtupoole FOMC möödunud kuu kohtumise protokoll, mis sisaldab värskendatud majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooni prognoose.

    Euro on dollari vastu kauplemas ca 0,5% plussis tasemel $1,3550 ning USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad 0,3% kõrgemal.
  • NYTimes on teinud Madoffiga esimese intervjuu alates tema arreteerimisest 2008. aasta detsembris. Link
  • Siin on Spiegel'i esmaspäeval avaldatud intervjuu hetkel veel ametis oleva Bundesbank'i juhi Axel Weberiga, kes teatas hiljuti ka oma kandidatuuri tagandamisest Euroopa keskpanga juhi kohale.
  • Suurbritannia töötuabiraha taotluste arv kasvas jaanuaris 2400 inimese võrra, kuigi oodati vähenemist 3 tuhande inimese võrra. Claimant töötusmäär jäi püsima vastavalt ootustele 4,5% peale. Naelsterling sattus tulemuste peale surve alla ja on hetkel kauplemas 0,16% kõrgemal $1,6147 taseme juures (päevane tipp $1,6184).
  • Esmane reaktsioon Inglismaa keskpanga infaltsiooniraportile on naelsterlingile negatiivne: GBPUSD vajunud $1,6084 tasemeni (-0,25%).
  • BoE alandas UK majanduskasvu väljavaateid.
  • BoE hinnangul langeb THI 2% sihtmärktasemeni 2012. aasta keskpaigaks. Allapoole sihtmärktaset kahe aastaga.
  • BoE juhi King'i sõnul tõusevad hinnad 2011. aasta esimeses pooles "järsult".
  • Jens Weidmann - Angela Merkeli majandusnõunik - saab Bundesbanki noorimaks presidendiks, kui Axel Weberi ametiaeg lõppeb aprilli lõpus.
  • FT Alphaville'i blogis on ära toodud Inglismaa keskpanga infaltsiooniootuste muutus alates 2009. aasta veebruarist kuni tänase inflatsiooniraportini. Suuremalt näeb siit.

  • Citi analüütikud on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Research In Motion (RIMM) kohta.
    Citi tõstab RIMM-i reitingu „müü“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $80 hinnasihiga.


    Carrier "Promotion Commotion" should start to flip to benefit Research In Motion at the expense of Sell-rated Nokia (CIRA analyst Zahid Hussein). Nokia is completely changing its strategy to now embrace the Microsoft mobile operating system thereby creating a multi quarter gap in Nokia products & carrier promotion support. We met with several international carriers at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona Spain this week who commented on their forthcoming shift to promote other handset OEMs (Android, Apple & RIMM) until Nokia's product strategy is more realizable. Nokia currently has 35% global market share vs. 23% Samsung, 9% LG, 5% Apple, 4% RIMM, 3% Motorola, 3% Sony Ericsson, 3% HTC (4Q'10).

    Citi analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust eelkõige sellega, et nüüd kus Nokia on täielikult muutmas oma strateegiat, siis sellega avaneb uus võimalus RIMM-i jaoks. Nimelt ütlesid mitmed edasimüüjad Barcelonas aset leidnud Mobile World konverentsil, et seniks kuni Nokia tootestrateegia on selgem, soovitavad nad pigem Android, Apple ja RIM tooteid.

    In our view, Western Europe offers the best combination of critical mass and available market share for RIMM to pursue. As seen in the figure below, Nokia still claimed 30% of the region's 30 million units in 4Q10 and 35% of 2010's 86 million smartphone market. While RIMM's market share has seen some pressure over the last two quarters due to Android, we nonetheless believe that RIMM should be able to capitalize on a confusing Nokia strategy.

    Analüütikute sõnul on RIMM-il nüüd väga hea võimalus kasvatada oma turuosa Lääne-Euroopas ning vaatamata asellele, et Android on viimasel kahel kvartalil kärpinud RIMM-i enda tiibu, peaks Nokia „segadus“ RIM-i teed siiski sillutama.

    RIMM oli alles mõned kuud tagasi üsna õnnetus seisus ning mitmed analüütikud olid valmis firma suhtes alla andma. Sealhulgas ka Citi ning tänaseks on näha, et toonane „sell“ reiting polnud just kõige parema ajastusega. Samas tänane upgrade võib töötada just nimelt on ajastuse tõttu, kuna Nokia kaob nii öelda mõneks ajaks pildilt ja see võiks tõepoolest olla RIM-i jaoks hea võimalus.
    Hetkel kaupleb RIMM eelturul juba 3 %plussis, aga arvestada tuleks sellega, et aktsial on tavaks enne avanemist alla tulla.


    %

  • January PPI Y/Y +3.6%; Core PPI +1.6%
    January Core PPI +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.2%
    January PPI +0.8% vs +0.7% Briefing.com consensus
    January Building Permits 562K vs 575K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change -10.4%
    January Housing Starts 596K vs 540K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +14.6%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VCLK +11.5%, AAN +10.5%, ACAS +10.3%, MALL +8.9%, DELL +7%, HWAY +5.9% (light volume), CENX +5.5%, CMCSA +5.5%, PLAB +4.7%, DE +2.3%, ADI +1.2%, .

    M&A news: FDO +27.4% (Trian's Nelson Peltz discloses in filing that the Trian Group or one of its affiliates propose acquisition in range of $55 to $60 per Share in cash), GENZ +1.5% and SNY +0.5% (Sanofi-aventis to acquire GENZ for $74.00 in cash per share plus contingent value right), APD +0.9% (ticking higher; Air Products withdraws offer for Airgas), TNGN (confirms it has been engaged in negotiations with a publicly traded co relating to the acquisition of co through a stock-for-stock merger).

    Select financial related names showing strength: RBS +3.4%, STD +3.3%, IRE +3.1%, DB +3%, CS +2.9%, HBC +1.9%.

    FDO peers lifting following Peltz filing with acquisition proposal: FRED +7.6% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DLTR +6.0%, DG +5.8% (also added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup), NDN +4.7%, BIG +2.3%.

    Other news: CHGS +15.1% (awarded $10.5 mln fracture proppant export contract), OPXT +4.3% (still checking), CERS +3.6% (higher following reports that the co received orphan drug designation), MNTA +2.1% (following positive mention in financial newspaper), AEIS +2.1% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), MDVN +2% (Medivation and Astellas announce positive new, long-term follow-up data from phase 1-2 trial ), SI +1.9% and NOK +1.0% (reports out overnight indicate that TPG and Gores Group are looking to buy stakes in Nokia Siemens jv), CAT +1.2% (in sympathy with DE), NUE +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: RIMM +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup), LVS +1.8% (upgraded to Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), STP +1.7% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord), HST +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OMX -8%, DENN -6.9%, RLOC -6.4% (also acquires DealOn Media, a local deals company, for ~$10 million), LOGM -5.2% (light volume), DF -5.0%, ROVI -3.1%, BHP -2.2%, BOBE -1.8% (ticking lower), MDRX -0.7% (light volume; also downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James ), ING -0.7%, .

    M&A news: ARG -3.4% (Air Products withdraws offer for Airgas).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2.3%, HL -1.5%, RIO -0.9%, VALE -0.5%.

    Other news: BGP -30.4% (confirms filing for reorganization relief under Chapter 11), DSCO -17.7% (announced that it intends to offer shares of its common stock and common stock purchase warrants in an underwritten public offering), PIP -12.1% (seeing some volatile action premarket, still checking), PDLI -8.1% (the co and MedImmune resolve patent disputes; PDL to pay MedImmune $92.5 mln), HAWK -7.4% (discloses notice from NASDAQ that it has determined that co's common stock will be delisted following co's filing of a voluntary petition for relief under Chapter 11), DHX -5.5% (announced a public offering of common stock by certain stockholders), BPI -2.9% (discloses its Ashford University received from the Attorney General of the State of Iowa a Civil Investigative Demand and Notice of Intent), SPLS -2.3% (lower following OMX results), SYT -2.3% (still checking), ARMH -1.9% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: WRES -7.6% (downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), SINA -3% (Hearing downgraded at Goldman), FXCM -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), RF -1.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Rochdale), LLNW -1.6% (hearing downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Dougherty).
  • See tava, kui pikalt sa ajalukku vaatasid?

    Jeffi ug - open 1 punkt kõrgemalt, high veel 3 punkti openist, ja close mingi 2 punkti openist üleval. Citi oli selliga alates 2009-st, nad ise toonitasid seda. See call pole eismapilgul midagi erilist, aga väike loogika NOK negatiivsust täna RIMM positiivsega veel kord mängida.
    MS - see oli ug EW-le,
    Jeffil oli üllatusmoment ja õnn esimene olla, aga Citi on suurem. Näen üle 68 seda täna.
    Hetkel paistab, et tulebki natuke alla enne avanemist :)
    RIMM tänab ug to buy tavaliselt üllatavalt hästi ära.

  • Forget Normal
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/16/2011 8:52 AM EST

    "When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves."

    -- Victor Frankl

    Even though I continue to write about how we shouldn't keep anticipating a change in the market behavior, it is almost impossible to follow that advice. We have been going straight up with just two slight pauses since the end of August, and even the hardcore bulls are growing tired of the lack of variety. By far, the best approach has been to just buy and hold, but it is human nature to keep wondering when a situation that feels so artificial at times will eventual change.

    The key to effectively navigating this market is to have the right mind-set and to forget about what was normal behavior in the past. Even if you don't trust the market at all and fully subscribe to the bearish arguments, you still have to keep reminding yourself that you aren't going to make any money if you insist on fighting the trend.

    It's obviously is preferable to fully embrace the bullish argument for this market, but for many market players, that is simply impossible. They just don't believe that the market is acting normally. And who can blame them when the power of quantitative easing and the computers are so obvious?

    The next best thing to true bullish conviction is to simply hold your nose and act like a bull. You don't have to believe that there are valid reasons for an uptrend in order to respect it. There are few things more dangerous than trying to impose your individual opinion on a market that isn't listening.

    I continue to work hard to suppress my underlying feeling that we have to see a change in market character soon, but it is very tiresome after a while. I have to keep reminding myself to stick with the price action and to not look for any major weakness until we actually see some real selling. It isn't as effective as being a true believer, but it is a whole lot better than being a bear that is combating the trend.

    We have some positive news flow and another gap up this morning. The flat action yesterday helped to alleviate some of the overbought conditions, but we are still overextended. Yesterday was particularly dangerous for some of the highfliers such as JDS Uniphase (JDSU) , which finally saw some profit-taking, but the overall market remains extremely stretched.

    Once again, my approach remains the same. I'll hold my nose and keep looking for some long trades, even though I'm not feeling the love. If and when we finally have some weak action, I'll be well prepared mentally, but in the meantime, I'm going to keep trying to adjust my thinking so that I can profit from the never ending uptrend.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
  • Business Insider annab kiire ülevaate sellest, mida maaklerid täna hommikul oma klientidele räägivad ehk teisisõnu toob välja kokkuvõtliku nimekirja aktsiatest, mida võiks täna radaril hoida.
  • January Industrial Production -0.1% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +1.2% from +0.8%
  • Bank of America analüütikud on väga bullish tehnoloogiasektori suhtes ja soovitavad investoritel osta "tehnoloogiatitaane" nagu Apple (AAPL) Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG) jt.
    Lähemalt saab analüütikute prognoosist lugeda siit.
  • The Fed purchased $1.89 bln of 2021-2027 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $11.19 bln
  • RIMM liikus täna hästi, aga kaubelda oli seda siiski suhteliselt keeruline, sest enne avanemist RIMM olulisel määral madalamale ei tulnud ning aktsia avanes $67,25 peal ehk üle 3% plusspoolel. Korraks tuli aktsia peale avanemist ka $67 taseme alla, aga sealt edasi on RIMM pidevalt üles liikunud ning hetkel kaupleb juba $68,35 kandis ehk ligi 5% plusspoolel.
  • FOMC Minutes from Jan. meeting released; Fed raises economic forecast
  • Fed comments from minutes on inflation

    "Measures of core inflation remained much more subdued, although they also moved up in some countries. In the EMEs, concerns about inflation prompted a number of central banks to tighten policy. Some EMEs reportedly took steps to limit the appreciation of their currencies by intervening in foreign exchange markets, and some acted to discourage capital inflows... The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was in line with what the staff anticipated at the time of the December meeting, and the staff continued to project that increases in core PCE prices would remain subdued in 2011 and 2012. As in previous projections, the persistent wide margin of economic slack in the forecast was expected to maintain downward pressure on inflation, but this influence was anticipated to be counterbalanced by the continued stability of inflation expectations and by increases in the prices of imported goods. The staff anticipated that brisk increases in energy prices would raise total consumer price inflation above core inflation this year, but that upward pressure from energy prices would wane by next year."
  • Additional comments from Fed on inflation outlook

    "Regarding risks to the inflation outlook, some participants noted that increases in energy and other commodity prices as well as in the prices of imported goods from EMEs posed upside risks. Others, however, noted that the pass-through from increases in commodity prices to broad measures of consumer price inflation in the United States had generally been fairly small. Some participants expressed concern that in a situation in which businesses had been unable to raise prices in response to higher costs for some time, firms might increase them substantially once they found themselves with sufficient pricing power. In any case, the factors affecting the ability of businesses to pass through higher prices to consumers were viewed as complex and hard to monitor in real time. Most participants saw the large degree of resource slack in the economy as likely to remain a force restraining inflation, and while the risk of further disinflation had declined, a number of participants cited concerns that inflation was below its mandate-consistent level and was expected to remain so for some time. Finally, some participants noted that if the very large size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet led the public to doubt the Committee's ability to withdraw monetary accommodation when doing so becomes appropriate, the result could be upward pressure on inflation expectations and so on actual inflation. To mitigate such risks, it was noted that the Committee should continue its planning for the eventual exit from the current exceptionally accommodative stance of policy."
  • Summary of FOMC minutes from the Jan 25-26 meeting

    Most participants raised their forecast of real GDP growth in 2011 somewhat and continued to anticipate stronger growth this year than in 2010, with a further gradual acceleration during 2012 and 2013. The unemployment rate was still projected to decline gradually over the forecast period but to remain elevated. Because the incoming data on production and spending were stronger, on balance, than the staff's expectations at the time of the December FOMC meeting, the nearterm forecast for the increase in real GDP was revised up. However, the staff's outlook for the pace of economic growth over the medium term was adjusted only slightly relative to the projection prepared for the December meeting... Total inflation was still expected to remain subdued, and core inflation was projected to trend up slowly over the next few years as economic activity picks up but inflation expectations remain well anchored. Despite further increases in commodity prices, measures of underlying inflation remained subdued and longer-run inflation expectations were stable. The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was in line with what the staff anticipated at the time of the December meeting, and the staff continued to project that increases in core PCE prices would remain subdued in 2011 and 2012. As in previous projections, the persistent wide margin. Measures of underlying consumer price inflation remained low. In December, the core consumer price index (CPI) edged up, as goods prices were unchanged and prices of non-energy services rose slightly.
  • Lausa uskumatu:
    Total inflation was still expected to remain subtued, core inflation was projected to trend up slowly over the next few years as economic activity picks up but inflation expectations remain well anchored

Teemade nimekirja