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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 17. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Hoolimata uuesti kasvavatest geopoliitilistest pingetest Lähis-Idas ja Põhja-Aafrikas, lõpetasid USA turud kolmapäeval kõrgemal ning täna hommikul on plussi näitamas ka Aasia regiooni indeksid. Hetkel liiguvad USA futuurid nulli lähedal.

    Huvitavaimaks makrouudiseks saab täna olema Ühendriikide möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste number (kell 15.30), mis konsensuse arvates kerkis 383 000 pealt 408 000 peale. Kestvate taotluste numbriks prognoositakse aga 3900K (eelneval nädalal 3888K). Samal ajal aga avaldatakse jaanuarikuu tarbijahinnaindeks, mille osas jälgitakse erinevust eile avaldatud tootjahinnaindeksiga. Kell 17.00 teatatakse aga jaanuari juhtivate indikaatorite indeks ja veebruarikuu Philadelphia Fedi indeks.
  • Juba eile õhtul läksid turul liikvele jutud, et Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs, kes jaanuari lõpus ettevõttest haiguslehe läks, käib ühes Kalifornia vähikliinikus ravil.
    Antud väide pole ametlikku kinnitust saanud ning loo allikaks on veebileht thenextweb.com, kus on ära toodud ka paar fotot Jobsist, mis on tehtud 8. veebruaril.
  • Jobsil raviti 2004 kilpnäärme vähki. AppleInsider uudis ja arutelu foorumis. Esimene postitus on oluline
    http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?p=1809978
  • Vigade parandus: pancreatic canceron kõhunäärme vähk. Wikipedia : Pancreatic cancer
    Patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer typically have a poor prognosis, partly because the cancer usually causes no symptoms early on, leading to locally advanced or metastatic disease at time of diagnosis. Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%.[52] With 37,170 cases diagnosed in the United States in 2007, and 33,700 deaths, pancreatic cancer has one of the highest fatality rates of all cancers, and is the fourth-highest cancer killer in the United States among both men and women. Although it accounts for only 2.5% of new cases, pancreatic cancer is responsible for 6% of cancer deaths each year.[53]

    Pancreatic cancer may occasionally result in diabetes. Insulin production is hampered, and it has been suggested the cancer can also prompt the onset of diabetes and vice versa.[54]


    Diabeet omakorda mõjub neerudele.
  • Mul on üks võib olla tobe küsimus optsioonide kohta. Peaagu iga päev tuleb mõni FDA otsus ravimi turule lubamise või mitte lubamise kohta. Sageli liigub aktsia hind selle peale mitukümmend protsenti. Kas siin ei oleks võimalik kasutada Straddle strateegiat? Liikumine peaks ju olema piisavalt suur. Kas siin on mõni muu aspekt, mis muudab sellise tehingu mittekasumlikuks?
  • klmike, pakun, et nende optsioonide hinnad on lihtsalt sellised, mis ei lase sellist straddle't kokku panna, mis laseks lihtsalt kasummi tekitatada. Las mõni targem täiendab...
  • Straddle on siin foorumis väga põhjalikult käsitletud. Otsi foorumi otsingus straddle järgi, Kristjan Lepik ja Riq järgi. Optsioonibuldooser on asi, mida otsida. Ka on siit läbi jooksunu optsiooniraamat DOC versioon, mis on siiani kõige parem digitaalne vahend optsioonide tehnikateks.
  • Karum6mm
    klmike, pakun, et nende optsioonide hinnad on lihtsalt sellised, mis ei lase sellist straddle't kokku panna, mis laseks lihtsalt kasummi tekitatada. Las mõni targem täiendab...


    enamikus nendes FDA otsuse aktsiates on optsioonide open interest ja käive väiksed ning spread lai
    kui osta vahetult enne otsust, siis on volatiilsus kõrge, peale otsust volatiilsus langeb oluliselt ja isegi suur liikumine alusvara hinnas ei pruugi volatiilsuse langusest tingitud kadu tasa teha, lisaks lühikese otsa optsioonidel ajaväärtus kukub ka kiiresti, kui siia kaotus spreadis ja teenustasud juurde panna, siis ... raske, raske :)

  • USA valitsus on võtnud vaatluse alla firmad, kus võidakse kasutada illegaalset tööjõudu ning Wall Street Journal`i andmetel nõutakse tuhandelt ettevõttelt personali värbamisega seotud dokumentatsiooni ette näitamist.
    Taoline audit on suurim alates 2009. aastast ning tõenäoliselt on "saak" suurim põllumajandussektoris, toitlustuses ja majutusasutustes. Näiteks Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) oli sunnitud vallandama sadu illegaalidest töötajaid.
  • Initial Claims 410K vs 408K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 385K from 383K
    Continuing Claims rise to 3.911 mln from 3.910 mln
    January Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.1%
    January CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to % from +0.5%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AVEO +22.5% (also AVEO Pharma and Astellas enter into worldwide agreement to develop and commercialize Tivozanib outside of Asia; co to receive $125 mln upfront and $1.3 bln in potential), RBCN +20.8%, WTW +15.7%, TBL +12.7%, REV +12.6%, ITRI +11.9%, IO +10.4% (also awarded final judgment and permanent injunction against sercel in patent infringement lawsuit), CLF +8.7%, ONP +8.7%, HOLI +7.7%, VDSI +6.5% (ticking higher), ITMN +5.3%, DPS +3.5%, FICO +3.4% (also upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Wedbush), GGC +2.5%, ABX +2%, SNPS +1.1%, CAR +1.1% (light volume).

    M&A news: LAB +10.8% (Labranche agrees to be acquired by Cowen Group a stock-for-stock merger transaction valued at ~$192.8 million).

    Select financial related names showing strength: LYG +3.7%, RBS +3.6%, HBC +2.5%, ING +2.4%, .

    Select rare earth names trading higher: AVL +2.2%, MCP +1.3%, REE +1.1%.

    Other news: WMB +13.3% (to pursue separating into two stand-alone, publicly traded companies; boosts dividend 60%), SSN +7.4% (still checking), NTWK +4.7% (still checking), JOYG +4.3% (will replace Allegheny Energy in the S&P 500), ISPH +4.3% (announces corporate restructuring and strategic focus on eye care business; estimated to save more than $40 million in 2011 ), BGS +3.9% (will replace Compellent Technologies in the S&P SmallCap 600), WPRT +3.5% (still checking), EP +3.3% (early strength attributed to positive mention at tier 1 firm), IHG +2% (hearing positive mention at UBS).

    Analyst comments: AXAS +6.8% (initiated with a Outperform at Robert W. Baird, initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus).
  • Notable Calls on leidnud täna huvitava note`i.
    Global Hunter kinnitab China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME) "osta" soovitust koos $26 hinnasihiga.
    Teatavasti sattus aktsia peale seda, kui Muddy Waters andis CCME "strong sell" ja $5 hinnasihi, tugeva müügisurve alla ja kaotas oma väärtusest ligi poole.

    3.02.11 China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. Boutique research firm Muddy Waters initiates at a Strong Sell (timing uncertain)
    - Says CCME "significantly inflates revenue and profits in order to enrich management through earn-outs and stock sales."


    Aktsia hetkel eelturul juba üle 10% üleval ja kaupleb $14 peal.

  • US futures ticking lower as headlines cross the wires citing an Iran Navy official as confirming that warships are on the way to the Suez canal
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EHTH -11.1%, ANAD -7.5%, SKX -7.1%, NTAP -6.6% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray, downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig Hallum, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity), OII -3.9%, PEET -3%, NVDA -3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), ORLY -2.3%, APA -2.2%, ETP -1.9%, ARIA -1.9%, ESRX -1.8%, ENOC -1.6% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ABB -1.0%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading modestly lower: AEM -2.4%, RIO -1.7%, BBL -1.2%, PAL -1.4%, MT -0.7%, BHP -0.5%.

    Other news: SPB -5.4% (still checking), ST -2.1% (announces proposed secondary offering of 20 mln ordinary shares), FRO -2.1% (still checking), HBAN -1.9% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), AAPL -1.0% (weakness attributed to reports that Jobs was seen leaving cancer treatment center).

    Analyst comments: XEC -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), ECT -0.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), NYX -0.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), CTRN -0.7% (ticking lower, downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna), BCE -0.6% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James).

  • The Thrill Is Gone
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/17/2011 8:48 AM EST

    "It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible."

    -- Mark Twain

    There have been a lot of comparisons made lately between the current action and the Nasdaq bubble in late 1999 and early 2000. During that period, the Nasdaq was up about 88% as it moved from 2730 in October 1999 to a high of 5130 in March 2000. The current run isn't nearly as big, but it is still pretty impressive. The Nasdaq has moved from a low of 2099 in August 2010 to a high yesterday of 2828 for a gain of only 34.7%.

    The biggest similarity between both periods is that both moves were practically straight up. Many market participants, however, including me, have commented lately about how the current action has a much different feel. I keep pondering whether the action really is that much different or is it the perception of the market players who have changed over the past decade.

    I recall the 1999-2000 run as being much more enthusiastic and joyful. Individual investors couldn't get enough of the market, and there was excitement in the air as they bid stocks higher and higher. Stocks were discussed everywhere, and everyone seemed to be joining the party.

    Probably the big difference back then was that the economic backdrop was very different. We weren't recovering from a major economic trauma back then like we are now. We were celebrating the monetization and economic viability of the Internet. It was a major economic shift in the way business was conducted, and market players were recognizing it as a new era. There is no similar innovation occurring now.

    One similarity back then was that we also had the Fed running the printing press. There was great concern about the dangers of Y2K. There were many software programs in use that were likely to read the date '00 as 1900 instead of 2000. There were folks building cabins in the wilderness due to predictions of mass chaos. The Fed flooded us with cash as folks hoarded greenbacks just in case their ATM was a victim of Y2K.

    Y2K turned out to be a bust, but all that cash was sloshing around out there, and much of it was put to work in the market. That is very similar to the quantitative-easing program we are seeing now, but back then, the Fed did a very poor job of removing that excess liquidity, which led to the subsequent market crash and housing bubble.

    The biggest difference between the market back then and now is that the economic backdrop is so different. Many folks have suffered tremendous economic damage the last couple years, and even though the market has roared back, they have not seen their situation improve that much. That disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street is what has caused the lack of real excitement now vs. the bubble of 10 years ago.

    Another factor to consider is that we aren't the same people we were 10 years ago. Since the top in 2000, we have had two major market pullbacks that were much more severe than anything we saw in the 1990s. We learned how quickly and easily we can lose money when the market turns. If you have been active in the market during the past decade, you are probably much more cautious now compared to 1999-2000.

    Also during the bubble days, there were a tremendous number of new market participants jumping in every day as they watched their friends and neighbors make huge profits. In the current market, we still are missing many of the participants from a couple years ago, and it is very unlikely that there are a lot of new investors jumping in these days since there still is so little job security and real economic growth.

    The key lesson we learned back in 2000 is that you can make some great money riding an extended market, but when the turn comes, it can become very ugly, very fast. We still have no signs of a top in this market, but there are many market players who are worried about it, which is probably one of the reasons we keep on going.

    We have some slight weakness this morning. CPI was a bit better than expected, and weekly unemployment was roughly in line. Of course, any early weakness is usual a signal to buy, so a negative start is probably a good thing for the bulls.
  • Ka täna võiks Business Insideri vahendusel üle vaadata selle, mida maaklerid oma klientidele täna hommikul räägivad.
    Peamine tähelepanu on eile õhtul oma kvartalitulemused avaldanud NetApp (NTAP) ja Nvidia (NVDA)-l. Esimese puhul on enamus analüütikuid pigem negatiivselt meelestatud ning viitavad aktsia kõrgele valuatsioonile, samas Deutsche Bank soovitab aktsiat osta. NVDA - l olid väga tugevad tulemused, aga analüütikute arvamused lähevad tuleviku osas lahku.
    NTAP kaupleb eelturul 7% ja NVDA 3% miinuses
  • Soomlased ei esita Liikaneni uueks ECB presidendi kandidaadiks
  • Täpselt nädal tagasi alustas Capstone Investments Yahoo! (YHOO) katmist koos "osta" soovituse ja $24 hinnasihiga. 10. veebruari börsipäevas sai see ka välja toodud ning toona ütlesin, et aktsia võib lähinädalatel sellest call`st tuge saada ning lubasin aktsial silma peal hoida.
    Täna kaupleb YHOO juba $17,75 peal ehk on nädala ajaga tõusnud ligi 9%.


  • February Philadelphia Fed 35.9 vs 21.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 19.3
    January Leading Index +0.1% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.8% from +1.0%
  • Eurotsooni veebruari tarbijausalduse indeks -9,9 vs oodatud -11,0 punkti; jaanuaris oli näit -11,2 punkti. Euro hetkel rallimas ja tegi äsja uue päevasisese tipu $1,3610 juures.
  • Möödunud aasta detsembris andis Merrill Lynch Weight Watchers International (WTW) -le "osta" soovituse koos $48 hinnasihiga. Tõin selle välja ka 7. detsembri börsipäevas.

    Täna kaupleb WTW 36% plusspoolel, $61 kandis, kuna firma teatas täna kvartalitulemustest ning andis käesolevaks aastaks konsensuse ootustest märkimisväärselt parema prognoosi.

    14:01 WTW Reports Q4 $0.64 v $0.56e, R$356.7M v $324Me
    - Guides initial FY11 EPS $3.50-3.85 v $2.78e


    Kas WTW edul võib olla seos kaalualandavate ravimite ebaeduga? :)
  • Tänane Business Insider kirjutab, et Google (GOOG)-i uus lahendus Social Search pakub kasutajatele võimalust otsida üles huvipakkuva isiku kõik sõnavõtud, mis on näiteks tehtud kas läbi Twitteri või Flickr. See kõlab hästi, kuid seal on siiski üks puudus- nimelt ei ole Google`l infot Facebookist, mis on maailma kõige populaarsem sotsiaalvõrgustik. Põhjuseks on väidetavalt info kättesaadavus Facebookist, mida viimane Google`le kõige meelsamini ei jaga, vaid annab selle hoopis Microsoft (MSFT)-le, mis kasutab seda Bingis.
    Artikli autori sõnul on võimalus, et mingil hetkel võib see anda Bingile teatava eelise, aga see on puhtalt oletuslikku laadi.
  • $9 bln 30-yr TIPS Auction Results: 2.190%; Bid/Cover 2.54x; Indirect Bidders 55.2%
  • Calpine (CPN) jumps $0.20 on spike in volume; Hearing move attributed to takeover chatter

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