Börsipäev 18. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänane makrokalender midagi väga olulist ei paku, kui peamise fookuse all võiksid olla arengud Lähis-Idas ja G20 kohtumine Prantsusmaal, kus Ben Bernanke peab täna kella kolme ajal kõne teemal „Globaalsed tasakaalutused“. Siinkohal tuletaks meelde, et esmaspäeval on presidentide päeva tõttu USA turud suletud.
USA futuurid on hetkel indikeerimas jätku eilsele positiivsele sentimendile, kui ES kaupleb 0,1% plussis. -
Saksamaa tootjahinnaindeks tõusis jaanuaris 5,7% (Y/Y), mis on suurim kasv alates 2008. aasta oktoobrist. Euro hetkel kauplemas 0,18% madalamal $1,3581 tasemel.
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Suurbritannia jaemüük kasvas jaanuaris 1,9% vs oodatud 0,5% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 5,3% vs oodatud 4,0%. GBPUSD +0,24% ja kaubeldakse 1,6210 juures.
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Anonüümsete arvamuste põhjal ei tohiks küll mingeid põhjapanevaid järeldusi teha, kuid Reuters tsiteeris eile ühte llikat oma loos, kelle sõnul on Portugal märtsi lõpuks EFSF-i all. Portugali võlakirjaoksjonid on viimasel ajal olnud küll mahu osa edukad, kuid nagu allolevalt graafikult näha, siis näiteks 10a finantseerimiskulud on terve veebruari teinud värskeid tippe, mis näitab turu süvenevat veendumust, et Portugal palub mingis etapis rahvusvahelist finantsabi.
"Portugal is drowning. It's not going to be able to hold on beyond the end of March," the euro zone source said. "That's already understood to be the case in financial markets, but now it's also understood among (EU) finance ministers."
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Euro hetkel tugeva surve all, kukkunund USA dollari vastu 0,44% ja kaupleb $1,3547 juures.
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CNBC vahendab, et Hiina keskpank tõstab kohustuslikku reservimäära 50 baaspunkti võrra
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Currency Commentary: Euro rallies past 1.36 as ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi says the ECB may raise rates to combat inflation
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ZH on teist päeva juhtimas tähelepanu Euroopa keskpanga Marginal Lending Facility viimase kahe päeva laenutegevusele:
The one thing that nobody is conveniently talking about that has suddenly become a big flash red light, the surge in borrowing on the ECB's Marginal Lending Facility which we noted yesterday, continues for the second day in a row, removing all speculation of this being a technical or calendar glitch, and confirming that some financial entity in Europe has entered its death rattle. Today, the ECB announced that after borrowing €15.8 billion in overnight liquidity, the highest since the program's inception in 2009, we got another increase in borrowing, this time at €16 billion in overnight liquidity needs.
Ja joonis ka siia juurde: -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NR +11.5%, SPWRA +11.1% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), ARUN +8.7% (also announces CFO, Steffan Tomlinson, is leaving the company effective March 31, 2011 to take a position in venture capital), RRGB +6.8%, APEI +5.8%, BRCD +5% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich), VMI +4.6%, WOOF +4.4%, AGP +4.0%, CLWR +3.6%, TNH +3.2%, INTU +2.9% (also reports 1% growth in total TurboTax units through Feb. 12), GFI +1.1%%.
Solar related names lifting following SPWRA results: SOL +2.1%, JASO +1.8%, STP +1.7%, FSLR +1.6%, YGE +1.6%, LDK +1.5%, TSL +1.4%.
Other news: MPET +21.5% (enters into an investment agreement with YEP in relation to evans shoal), EXEL +11.2% (reports Cabozantinib Phase 2 data support the findings that cabozantinib reduces or stabilizes metastatic bone lesions in nearly all patients evaluable by bone scan), TAT +10.0% (still checking), KGJI +4.9% (selected by China Merchants Bank to manufacture investment oriented products, including 24-karat gold coins and bars) RBCN +3.9% (continued strength following earnings), AGO +3.2% (strength attributed to positive comments on FastMoney), NVAX +3.0% (presents final results from H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Trial), DNDN +1.8% (announces presentation of PROVENGE data at the Genitourinary Cancers Symposium; exploratory analysis suggest post-progression treatment with investigational apc8015f immunotherapy may have extended survival in control arm), AGN +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DPS +0.4% (ticking higher following positive mention in financial newspaper).
Analyst comments: PWER +1.3% (initiated with Buy at Jefferies) -
Täna on positiivsete kommentaaridega Dendreon (DNDN) kohta väljas RBC Capital Markets ja Roth Capital Partners.
Teatavasti õnnestus DNDN-l saada möödunud aastal ravimiametilt heakskiit tuua turule oma eesnäärmevähi raviks mõeldud Provenge. Paljud on tõenäoliselt Provenge saagaga ka tuttavad ja kes soovib oma mälu värskendada siin. CMS otsuse ootus ning JNJ konkureeriv ravim abiraterone acetate (AA) on DNDN aktsiad ka viimasel ajal surve all hoidnud.
Samas värske uudis Provenge kohta lubab investoritel jälle lootusrikkamalt tulevikku vaadata.
New data from the Phase III poster at ASCO-GU shows that the overall survival benefit of Provenge could theoretically be 10-11 months (vs. Known 4.1-mo benefit), which is 2-3x greater than originally thought.
We believe Q2 and Q3 Provenge estimates are beatable and 2000 total patients could be treated by July. Many investors are skeptical about guidance, perceived steep revenue ramp in 2011-2012, and the EU regulatory process (EU revs are largely not in Street estimates). We think the company has continued to hit on most all metrics, and delivering on execution of sales in 2011 and toward the goal of blockbuster status into 2012 should push the stock higher this year.
Lühidalt öeldes näitasid uuringud, et Provenge võib patsientide eluiga pikendada lausa 10-11 kuu võrra, mis on oluliselt pikem esialgsetest prognoosidest ( v 4 kuud)
RBC analüütikud usuvad, et firma suudab ootusi täita ning juba juuliks võib olla ravil 2000 patsienti. Nende arvates liigub Dendreon õiges suunas ning järgmiseks aastaks saab Provengest müügihitt, mis omakorda peaks panema aktsia sel aastal kõrgemale liikuma.
Ka Roth analüütikud viitavad uuringu tulemuste positiivsele mõjule ning kinnitavad oma „osta“ soovitust koos $55 hinnasihiga. Lisaks sellele usuvad nad, et DNDN on ka atraktiivne ülevõtu kandidaat.
We reiterate our Buy rating and $55/share price target. Our Buy rating is based on 1) our projected sales for Provenge, 2) momentum behind the Provenge story based on what we perceive to be significant patient demand and 3) our perception that Dendreon represents a viable takeout candidate.
Alates sellest ajast saadik, kui DNDN üllatas oma investoreid meeldivalt revolutsioonilise ravimi Provengega, on aktsia olnud mitmesuguste negatiivsete uudiste meelevallas. Kuigi täna pole tegemist upgrade`ga, usun ma ,et antud uudis ei jää tähelepanuta.
Hetkel kaupleb DNDN eelturul $34,65 kandis ehk 2,2% plusspoolel. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BCSI -7.4%, MXWL -5.4% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), LYB -4.8%, CPB -3.4%, JWN -3.2%, MRGE -3% (light volume), CF -1.6%, PDCO -0.7%.
Select mining names trading lower: BBL -2.6%, RIO -2.3%, BHP -1.5%, MT -1.0%.
Other news: CHTP -4.5% (to offer $35 mln in shares of its common stock in a registered public offering pursuant to its existing shelf registration statement), SVVS -2.8% (still checking), VECO -2.3% (lower following BCSI results), TSLA -2.1% (still checking for anything specific), SLF -1.5% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), RCL -1.2% (still checking), CODI -0.9% (Compass Group Chief Executive Officer to take leave of absence, Alan Offenberg will assume the role on an interm basis; downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), CVG -0.6% (following yesterday's late strength as result of takeover rumor).
Analyst comments: AIXG -4.5% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup), JDSU -3.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), ACOR -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray, upgraded to Hold from Sell at Hapoalim Securities ), ERIC -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at WestLB). -
Eurotsoonis rahaturul on keegi koolemas, võlakriis on täies hoos ning ECB onu räägib intresside tõstmisest? Not gonna happen.
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J.P. Morgan on täna väljas üsna huvitava kommentaariga TRW Automotive (TRW) kohta.
JPM kinnitab oma „osta“ soovitust ja tõstab hinnasihi $56 pealt $76 peale aj usub, et 2-3 aasta pärast võiks TRW olla $100 aktsia.
Hidden Value to Hidden Growth; See ~$100 Stock in 2-3 Years.
TRW seems to be entering a critical transition phase from which we think patient investors will be handsomely rewarded even if 2011 earnings momentum is deliberately moderated to fund tangible growth-related investment costs. A supplier long respected by value investors for aggressive cost containment and prudent balance sheet management is seeming more and more like a hidden growth story. Our revised estimates are conservative on revenue outperformance relative to industry production but also on margins. We revise our Dec-2011 price target to $74 (vs. $56 earlier), applying an 11x P/E multiple to our 2012e EPS of $6.75. Yet we see a reasonable upside case to $8-9 of EPS or a ~$100 potential share price within 2-3 years assuming a low-teens P/E. Reiterate Overweight.
Analüütikud usuvad, et TRW on sisenemas kriitilisse üleminekufaasi, millest investorid saavad helde tasu, isegi kui 2011.aastal on tulud mõnevõrra tagasihoidlikumad investeerimiskulude tõttu.Analüütikute arvates on agressiivse kulude kärpimise ja oskusliku bilansi haldamise taga peidus kasvupotentsiaal, mistõttu usuvad analüütikud, et paari-kolme aasta pärast maksab TRW $100.
JPM analüütikud käivad välja väga julge hinnasihi ning just see mu tähelepanu selle call`i juures täna köitiski. Täna ei pruugi küll aktsia sellele kommentaarile reageerida, aga pikemas perspektiivis tasub TRW-l silma peal hoida. -
Jaapani rahandusminister Yoshihiko Noda teatas, et Jaapan kavatseb jätkata Euroopa stabiilsusfondi (EFSF) võlakirjade ostmist.
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DNDN oli täna keeruline. Eelturul osteti aktsia üles ning DNDN avanes $34,94 peal ehk 3% plusspoolel. Peale avanemist müüdi aktsia $34,40 kanti ning seejärel liikus aktsia tagasi oma päevatipu poole. Ilmselt oleks see päevatipp ka uuesti kätte saadud, kui Forbes`i ajakirjanik Matthew Herper poleks Twitteris teada andnud, et kavatseb välja tulla negatiivse looga DNDN kohta . See uudis saatis DNDN uuesti langusesse ning hetkel kaupleb aktsia $33,40 peale ehk 1,5% plusspoolel.
TRW liikus seevastu üllatavalt hästi, sest aktsia avanes sulgumishinnaga ehk $58,82 pealt ning on sealt ülespoole rühkinud ning hetkel kaupleb $60,50 kandis ehk 2,7% plusspoolel. -
FT kirjutab, et Euroopa keskpanga Marginal Lending Facility viimaste päevade kasvanud laenutegevuse taga on kaks Iirimaa panka: Anglo Irish Bank ja Irish Nationwide Building Society.
Anglo Irish Bank and the Irish Nationwide Building Society, Ireland’s two most troubled lenders, were behind a spike in overnight borrowings this week from the European Central Bank, according to people familiar with the transactions.
The use of ECB emergency overnight funding jumped to €16bn ($21.9bn) on Thursday far above recent levels, causing commotion in money markets. A person involved in the transaction said the banks were required to swap amounts borrowed under the normal liquidity facility provided by the ECB for more expensive overnight money as a consequence of the preparations for the orderly wind down of the two institutions, which is being overseen by Ireland’s Central Bank.
Both banks have become heavily reliant on the ECB’s liquidity funding over the past 2 years, as they have been unable to roll over maturing bond debt and have seen an outflow of deposits.
