Börsipäev 22. veebruar
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Turud on Põhja-Aafrika ja lähis-Ida rahutusi võtmas juba märksa tõsisema noodiga, kui naftaettevõtted peatavad Liibüas oma tootmist, kergitades WTI-d öösel veel 5 dollari võrra (üleminek märtsi futuuridelt aprilli futuuridele) 97,9 dollarile. Viimati kauples must kuld nõnda kõrgel 2008. aasta esimeses pooles, kui suvel 140 dollarini ralliti. Nafta kallinemine survestas eile Euroopa aktsiaturge, kus indeksid sulgusid üle protsendises miinuses. Samal ajal allapoole tulnud võlakirja yieldid võiksid peegeldada investorite soovi otsida kaitset, kuna nagu Kristjan eilses börsipäeva foorumis tõi välja, siis nafta jõudmine 100 dollari lähedale paneb muretsema, kui tugevat negatiivset mõju see globaalsele majandusele avaldab.
Tänase makrokalendri keskpunktis on USA, kus avaldamisele tuleb detsembrikuu Case-Shilleri majade indeks (kell 16.00), veebruarikuu tarbijausalduse indeks ja Richmondi töötleva tööstuse indeks (kell 17.00).
USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel 0,8-1,4% punases. -
BofA ML, kes prognoosib Brenti tänavuseks keskmiseks hinnaks 115 dollarit ja järgmise aasta keskmiseks hinnaks 130 dollarit barreli kohta, leiab et nafta hinna liikumine üle 115 dollari võib globaalse majanduse ohtu seada. Suuremat mõju tunneksid arenevad riigid, väiksemad oleksid tagajärjed arenenud lääneriikidele. Via Businessinsider
The US seems less vulnerable to oil, thanks to low nat gas
If oil instead broke unexpectedly to a $120-130/bbl range, pretty much every net energy importer, including Germany, Japan, China and other parts of Asia, would be hurt, in our view. The simple quantitative analysis shown below roughly coincides with the qualitative assessment from a poll of our economists. Perhaps surprisingly, the US is somewhat less vulnerable. We estimate that the energy sector now represents 5.4% of the US economy, relative to 7.6% in 2008 and 10.6% in 1980. The vulnerability of the United States has decreased partly as a result of efficiency improvements but, most critically, due to the substantial decoupling in domestic natural gas and thermal coal prices from the
international markets. -
Suurbritannia jaanuarikuu eelarve tuli £14,4 miljardilise ülejäägiga, ületades tugevalt oodatud £6,0 miljardilist ülejääki. Detsembris oli eelarve puudujäägis £25,5 miljardiga. Naelsterling on vähendamas tänaseid kaotusi, kaubeldes hetkel 0,33% miinuspoolel $1,6170 juures. Päeva põhi tehti $1,6135 juures.
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Traagiline maavärin Uus-Meremaa suuruselt teises linnas ja riigi finantskeskuses Christchurch'is on Uus-Meremaa dollari viinud 2,14% langusse, kaubeldes hetkel $0,7475 juures.
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Euroopa keskpanga liige Yves Mesrch ütles, et ECB võib hoiatada 3. märtsi raportis suurenenud inflatsiooniriski eest. Euro on teinud korraliku kannapöörde ja tõusnud päeva põhjast $1,3525 tasemelt 100 punkti kõrgemale.
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ECB hakkab see aasta intresse tõstma. Ratas on pööranud. Inflatsiooniretoorika on tagasi.
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Kas ikka hakkab? Mis siis nende servast kärssavate põrsastega tehakse, kes vajaks nii pehmet monetaarpoliitikat kui võimalik?
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Midagi ei tehta. ECB mandaat on inflatsioonitapmiseks antud. Kui see mandaat ei meeldi, siis tuleb uus välja mõelda. Aga niikaua kui nad ei ole seda muutnud peavad nad inflatsiooni tapma. Ma ikkagi arvan et vähemalt 2 intressitõusu võib see aasta tulla. Samas kusagilt analüüsist jäi meelde, et eelmine kord kui ECB hakkas inflatsioonist jutlustama läks ka enne tohutult palju kuid mööda enne kui tõstsid. Võib muidugi ka praegu juhtuda nii, et kõigepealt retoorikaga nihestamine ja kui see ei aita, siis intressidega. Igaljuhul kas intressitõusud tulevad või ei, tähelepanu on selgelt keeranud. Õnneks hakkab võlakriisi see faas läbi saama kus EU kurss oli ainult alla. Alla, alla, alla, alla. Nüüd näe otsitakse kursile teed ka üles. Kui ikka headline annab sellise võimaluse, siis üles ta läheb. Nii nagu eelmise nädala Bini Smaghi. Euroopa võlakriisi karmimatel päevadel oli ainult one way quoting. Kedagi ei huvitanud ask, keegi ei soovinud longi minna. Aga nüüd juba soovitakse.
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Kedagi ei huvitanud orderid bidis, kõik olid peamiselt askis. Market orderitega tambiti küll bidi, aga limiitorderid olid ainult askis.
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ECB pole enam ammu sakslaslik tehnokraatlik asutus.
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No ma loodan et on. Igaljuhul ma pigem kardaks praegu intresside tõstmist kui langetamist. Intresside tõusu võimaluse ignoreerimine ei oleks mõistlik.
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Euro on igatahes kogu päevase miinuse tagasi teinud ja kaupleb avanemistaseme $1,3677 juures.
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Täna on USA turg punasem, kui me oleme seda viimasel ajal harjunud nägema.
Doug Kass ütleb täna hommikul, et vaatamata Jim Crameri soovitusele osta nõrkust, kavatseb tema shortida IGA väiksematki tõusu.
Doug Kass
this morning my friend/buddy/pal jim cramer says to pick on weakness, i would short on ANY strength $$ -
Reuters vahendab eilset WSJ artiklit, tuues välja, et USA kinnisvarasektori tõeline langus on jäänud ilustatud andmete varju.
The National Association of Realtors, which issues the monthly existing home sales report that is closely watched by economists and financial markets, may have over-counted home sales dating as far back as 2007, the newspaper said in an article posted to its web site.
NAR's home sales count was at odds with calculations by CoreLogic, a California real estate analysis firm, according to the report. CoreLogic says NAR could have overstated home sales by as much as 20 percent.
An over-count of home sales may mean that there is a bigger backlog of unsold homes and that it will take longer for the U.S. housing sector to climb out of the deep hole it is already in, dragging on the broader economic recovery. -
Nelli Janson
Doug Kass
this morning my friend/buddy/pal jim cramer says to pick on weakness, i would short on ANY strength $$
kas see $$ on emotikon või kavatseb Doug Kass dollarit lühikeseks müüa iga tugevuse korral?
$ - short USD
$$ - double short USD
diclaimer :) -
Tegelikult on kõik halvasti! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Oh, wait a minute, mis ma selle müümise eest saan? Dollarit? Kas ma tahan dollarit? EI! Buy, buy, buy!!!!
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FONR +28.8% (light volume), TSL +3%, HD +2.4%.
M&A news: CLDA (Forest Laboratories to acquire Clinical Data for $30.00/share in cash plus contingent consideration of up to $6.00/share that may be paid upon achievement of certain commercial milestones ).
Select gold/metals names trading higher: AUY +4.3%, GG +3.9%, SLW +3.9%, SVM +2.6%, HL +2.5%, ABX +2.2%, NG +2.1%, AEM +1.9%, GRS +1.9%, KGC +1.6%, EGO +1.3%, NEM +1.0%, GLD 0.7%.
Other news: IRDM +10.8% (still checking), CHK +9.1% (Chesapeake Energy sells Fayetteville Shale assets to BHP Billiton for $4.75 bln in cash), SIGA +7.9% (announced that the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority has advised that it is issuing a new Request for Proposal seeking to procure 1.7 mln courses of a smallpox antiviral), GORO +4.8% (announces drilling returns highest grade intercepts to date including 11 meters down hole of 37.48 grams gold per tonne and 2183 grams silver per tonne), JBL +0.7% (acquires 3 of its former divested operations; expects one time charge to GAAP earnings of $25-40 mln).
Analyst comments: MCP +4.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), HUM +2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), ELN +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS). -
Täna on Deutsche Banki analüütikud väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Sina Corp (SINA) kohta.
Deutsche Bank alandab SINA reitingut „hoia“ pealt „ müü“ peale koos $58 hinnasihiga.
Run-up on weibo enthusiasm may reverse While we continue to recognize Sina's dominance, innovation and leadership in the portal space, and view its weibo microblog service as a breakthrough in internet-based communications, we do believe that the risks of tightening government regulation around its "Twitter-like" service continue to mount. We believe the occurrence of (admittedly sparse and lightly attended) demonstrations across China over the weekend may move the authorities to disable aspects of microblog services that they view as destabilizing. Further Mideast unest could also lead to tightening.
Summary shutdown unlikely, paring back of service probable We would not expect China's major microblog services to be shut down, but instead "handicapped" in some fashion (eg, inserting 5-7 mins of latency between tweet and receipt, prohibiting extensive "retweeting", etc.)
Analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust eelkõige Hiinas tekkinud rahutuste tõttu. Teatavasti saadeti nädalavahetusel Hiinas SMS-de ja interneti kaudu laiali üleskutseid nõudmaks valitsuselt nii öelda paremat elu. Analüütikute arvates on tõenäoline, et Hiina valitsus võtab kasutusele täiendavaid meetmeid internetis suhtlemise piiramiseks . DB usub , et SINA Twitterilaadsele teenusele võidakse rakendada ka teatavaid kitsendusi, aga sulgemist peetakse siiski vähetõenäoliseks.
Hiina on kuulus oma interneti tsensuuri poolest ja kui tekib vähimgi oht, et rahvas kavatseb Egiptuse ja Liibüa eeskujul protestikogunemisi uuesti organiseerima hakata, siis ilmselt ei kahtle valitsus hetkegi selle ära hoidmiseks internetis suhtlemist veelgi intensiivsemalt piirata. Häirib mind selle call`i juures natuke asjaolu, et DB analüütikud muutusid SINA suhtes negatiivseks juba novembris, mil aktsia kauples $55 juures. Samas andis Goldman Sachs aktsiale 16. veebruaril samuti downgrade`i ning SINA reageeris sellele ligi 4% langusega. Arvestades tänast turu sentimenti võiks eeldada, et ka tänane downgrade ei jäta turuosalisi külmaks.
Hetkel on SINA eelturul juba 4% alla müüdud, ootaks ära avanemise. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DAKT -9%, SWC -5.5% (ticking lower), BKS -5.4% (also does not give guidance; suspends dividend), SCOK -3.7% (light volume), ODP -3.7%, FRO -2.5%, NRG -2.3%, WMT -2.1%, MHS -2% (light volume), CAG -1.6%, PEG -1.4%, JASO -1.2%.
M&A news: HOC -0.8% and FTO -1.5% (Frontier Oil and Holly announce merger of equals; FTO to pay special dividend of $0.28 per share), FRX -6.8% (Forest Laboratories to acquire Clinical Data for $30.00/share in cash plus contingent consideration of up to $6.00/share that may be paid upon achievement of certain commercial milestones).
Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -4.1%, HBC -4%, BCS -2.9%, DB -2.8%, CS -2.1%, BAC -2.1%, C -1.6%, UBS -1.1%.
Select mortgage insurer related names under pressure: PMI -2.6%, RDN -2.5%, AIG -1.6%.
Select mining stocks trading lower: AA -3.6%, RIO -3.1%, MT -3.1%, TCK -2.6%, DNN -1.7%.
Select coal related names showing early weakness: PCX -1.7%, ANR -1.4%, ACI -1.2%, MEE -1.0%, BTU -1.0%.
Other news: RCL -6.7% and CCL -4.6% (hearing weakness related to Middle East concerns), MDSO -3.9% (still checking), NVDA -3.2% (still checking on anything specific), MRVL -3.1% (Hearing downgraded to Neutral from Buy at boutique firm), RDS.A -1.4% (Royal Dutch Shell, Vitol and Helios reach agreement on African downstream businesses), FN -0.8% (light volume, proposes 6 mln share secondary offering by shareholders), GILD -0.8% (to acquire Calistoga Pharmaceuticals for $375 mln).
Analyst comments: PDCO -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), NOK -2.8% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at RBS), ACM -2.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), SE -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), DPL -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird). -
December S&P Case Shiller 20-city Index -2.38% vs -2.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -1.62% from -1.59%
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Oil-Drenched Downside
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/22/2011 8:45 AM EST
The oil can is mightier than the sword.
-- Everett Dirksen
The market barely blinked as the revolution in Egypt took place, but it is very worried this morning over the potential downfall of a brutal dictator in Libya for one main reason: oil. There is concern now that the unrest in the Middle East will disrupt the oil supply, and that is causing some major worries.
It isn't too surprising that the market finally has a good excuse for some selling since it has gone practically straight up since Thanksgiving. We always eventually find a good reason to consolidate when we are technically extended.
So is this just a hiccup and a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a more severe correction? Obviously the smart bet for a very long time has been to expect the market to bounce right back. Since the low in March 2009, all dips have been buying opportunities, but recently we have not even had two substantial down days in a row. If you didn't buy right away, you were left behind very quickly.
The main thing to keep in mind at this point is that market players are still very conditioned to buy weakness. Since the bulls have had such great success for so long, they are going to automatically jump in on weakness. One thing you can count on market players to do is to repeat the same behavior over and over again until it stops producing positive results.
We really have to watch for failed bounces. If the market trend is going to turn, we are going to see a series of failed bounce attempts. Eventually the dip-buyers will give up and then the stuck bulls will look for escape and help downside pressure to build. Tops take some time to play out, so typically it isn't a great move to panic-sell into the first dip off a new high.
Back on Jan. 28 we had some very ugly action all day as the Egyptian issue spooked the market, but we bounced back the next day and completely recouped our losses by the close the day after that. I'm sure many market players are thinking that will happen again, but it is very different when oil is involved. If other oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia start to have problems, it is going to be a major challenge for the market.
Let's see how we act after we open. So many stocks are technically extended, it sure isn't going to be bad if they consolidate. Most have a long way to drop before they challenge support, but it can still be pretty painful if you're holding too much. Many have wanted a buying opportunity; now we will see if they really are willing to buy or are they going to be worried that the problems in the Middle East will spread.
We are already well off the early lows this morning, but it's a long day and there is likely to be some news flow to contend with. Stay on your toes. -
February Consumer Confidence 70.4 vs 67.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 64.8
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Reuters vahendab Yuanta Securities teadet, et Apple on sunnitud tootmisprobleemide tõttu iPad2’e müügitähtaja aprilli pealt juunisse lükkama. Nimelt on komponentide tootjad pidanud uue disaini tõttu tootmisprotsesse muutma ning sellest tulenevad probleemid vajavad lisaaega, et neid lahendada. Yuanta Securities teatas, et kui iPad2 lükatakse kaks kuud edasi, vähendatakse käesoleva aasta müügimahu prognoosi 30.6 miljoni ühiku pealt 23 miljoni ühikuni.
BusinessInsider kirjutab, et ka iPhone5 müügiletulek võib juuni-juuli pealt edasi lükkuda septembrisse. FBR Capital Markets analüütik Craig Berger viitab sellele, et mitmete komponentide tarnijaid pole veel välja valitud. Samas ütleb Berger, et käesoleval aastal plaanib Apple ehitada 100 miljonit iPhone’i vs analüütikute ootus 75 miljonit. -
CNBC, citing Reuters, says Libya has declared force majeure on all oil product exports and imports are also blocked
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$35 bln 2-year Note Auction: Yield 0.745%; Bid/Cover 3.03x (Prior 3.47x, 4-auction avg 3.58x, 12-auction avg 3.36x); Dollar Demand $106.5 bln (Prior $121.5 bln. 4-auction avg $125.2 bln, 12-auction avg $129.2 bln); Indirect Bidders 31.2% (Prior 27.0%, 4-auction avg 32.0%, 12-auction avg 35.5%)
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Paraku alahindasin täna negatiivseid meeleolusid turul ja SINA avanemisel eelturu tasemetest enam ülespoole ei tulnudki. Aktsia avanes $80,06 peal ehk ligi 6,5% miinuses ning seejärel aktsia jätkas langust, käies ära ka $77,50 peal ehk ligi 12,5% miinuspoolel. Hetkel on aktsia oma päeva põhjadest küll taastunud ja kaupleb $78,50 kandis ehk 8% miinuspoolel.
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Bloomberg TV reporting that Germany's Chancellor Merkel said extending the Greek aid program is on the table
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Tänane Wall Street Journal toob välja aktsiate TOP 10, mis riskifondid enda portfellides hoiavad.
Nimekiri on kokku pandud Goldman Sachsi analüütikute poolt.
Ilmselt ei tule üllatusena, et kõige populaarsem aktsia on fondijuhtide seas Apple (AAPL). Ülejäänud nimekiri näeb välja selline:
Citigroup
Microsoft
J.P. Morgan Chase
Google
Pfizer
General Motors Co.
Lyondellbasell Industries
Alcon
CIT Group
Olgu öeldud, et nimekiri on koostatud möödunud aasta kolmanda kvartali seisuga. -
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) prelim $0.70 vs $0.63 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $1.98 bln vs $2.37 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
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Hewlett-Packard prelim $1.36 vs $1.29 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $32.3 bln vs $32.95 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
Hewlett-Packard sees Q2 $1.19-1.21 vs $1.25 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees revs $31.4-31.6 bln vs $32.59 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
HPQ ka tulemustega väljas ning ühtlasi alandab teise kvartali prognoose.
Järelturul kaupleb aktsia selle peale juba 6% miinuspoolel, $45 all.
