Börsipäev 28. veebruar
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Tänane Euroopa sessiooni makrokalender on võrdlemisi hõre: kell 12.00 avaldatakse eurotsooni jaanuari tarbijahinnaindeks, mis langes eelmise kuu suhtes ootuste kohaselt 0,6% ja kasvas aastasel baasil 2,4%.
USA sessioonil ilmuvad Kanada IV kvartali SKT tulemused, millelt oodatakse annualiseeritult 2,9% kasvu vs 1,0% kasv III kvartalis. Kell 15.30 ilmuvad USA erakulutuste andmed ja kell 17.00 lõpetamata kodumüügi näidud.
Euroopa aktsiaindeksid on hetkel kauplemas keskmiselt 0,25% miinuspooolel ja USA aktsiaindeksite futuurid on samuti hetkel punases. Euro kaupleb 0,1% kõrgemal $1,3766 taseme juures. -
FT Alphaville'i blogis juhitakse tähelepanu VoxEu.org portaalis ilmunud analüüsile Overseeing Systemic Risk, kus lahatakse USA finantssüsteemi reforminud Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act'i puuduseid süsteemselt riskantsete finantsasutuste identifitseerimisel. Analüüsiga saab pikemalt tutvuda siin, kuid nad toovad ise välja, et neid ettevõtteid on võimalik identifitseerida ja teinud nimekirja kümnest kõige riskantsemast firmast:
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Euro on hetkel rallimas kõikide peamiste valuutade suhtes: EURAUD +0,61%; EURCAD +0,33%; EURCHF +0,30%; EURGBP +0,09%; EURJPY +0,64%; EURUSD +0,54%. Euro kaupleb madalamal ainult Rootsi krooni suhtes (-0,54%).
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Hinnainfo Balti börsidel on alates 11:45-st seisma jäänud, peaks olema üldisem probleem. Orderid jooksevad turule probleemideta. Täpsem info tulemas.
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Eurotsooni jaanuari tarbijahinnaindeks -0,7% vs oodatud -0,6% (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 2,3% vs oodatud 2,4%.
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Tänane FT artikkel kirjutab, et José Manuel Barroso ja Herman Van Rompuy on arendanud edasi Saksamaa algatud konkurentsivõimelisuse pakti, mille paljud ettepanekud eurotsooni liikmesmaade seas vastumeelsust tekitasid ning ilmselt pannakse see lauale 11 märtsil. Merkeli kuuepunktisest kavast üks olulisemaid - laenamise piirang teatud võlakoorma ületamise korral - on jäänud küll alles, kuid ei kohusta riike vastu võtma Saksamaa seaduse versioon, vaid nõuab igalt liikmelt enda plaanide tegemist.
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Probleemid lahendatud - Balti börside hinnainfo taas reaalajas ja korrektne.
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UBS on langetanud Amazoni (AMZN) ostusoovituse „neutraalse“ peale (koos konsensusest madalamate kasumiprognoosidega). Amazoni hinnasiht langetati $195’lt $180’le. Aktsia on eelturul 2%-i miinuses, kuid võimalik, et see downgrade võib täna suuremat müügisurvet esile tuua – loe pikemalt siit.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MRX +19.7% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein , upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray, upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), JKS +11.1%, HUM +3% (raises FY11 EPS guidance; no longer anticipates incurring $0.25 loss associated with loss of TRICARE contract; also announces south region TRICARE contract from DOD; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), .
M&A news: NHP (Ventas to acquire Nationwide Health Properties in $7.4 bln transaction equivalent to $44.99 of VTR stock for each NHP share; expected to be immediately accretive to FFO).
A few financial related names showing strength: UBS +1.6%, DB +1.2%, JPM +0.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: EXK +2.4%, URZ +2.2%, HL +2.0%, MDW +1.8%, SLW +1.7%, NG +1.5%, IAG +1.3%, GSS +1.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: OAS +6.8%, PDE +4.9%, BEXP +3.6%, ROYL +3.2%, NBR +2.0%, GMXR +1.7%, EGY +1.5%, RIG +1.4% (Hearing positive mention at tier 1 firm), SWN +1.1%, BP +1%.
Select airline related names ticking higher: LUV +7.5%, AMR +3.5%.
Other news: DSCI +14.7% (announced receipt of 510(k) clearance from the FDA for its patent-pending MEDIHONEY Gel Wound and Burn Dressing), LGND +4.2% (FDA Grants Full Approval for PROMACTA for Treatment of Rare Blood Disorder), ICO +3.5% (ticking higher following positive mention in financial newspaper), MYL +2.8% (receives final approval from FDA for its ANDA for Gabapentin Capsules USP, the generic version of Pfizer's Neurontin Capsules), RCL +2% (still checking for anything specific), ARMH +1.3% and HES +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney),.
Analyst comments: POT +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Gleacher). -
January Personal Income +1.0% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.4%
January Personal Spending +0.2% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.5% from +0.7% -
Täna on Jefferies väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Humana (HUM) kohta.
Jefferies tõstab HUM reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $65 pealt $74 peale.
We are upgrading HUM to Buy from Hold as TRICARE contract extension should serve as initial catalyst. Potential guidance raises are probable given initial conservatism, encouraging membership traction and benign cost trend environment. Stock has significantly underperformed peers since October, and we think investors should buy on compelling valuation. Price target of $74 represents 18% upside.
Analüütikud lähtuvad oma reitingumuutuses eelkõige reedel välja tulnud uudisest, mis teatas TRICARE lepingu pikendamisest ehk Humana Military jätkab tervishoiu teenuste osutamist 3 miljonile teenistuses ja erus olevale ajateenijale ning nende perekondadele 10 osariigis.
Humana Inc Awarded the South Region TRICARE contract to Humana’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Humana Military Healthcare Services
Teiseks toovad analüütikud, et aktsia on võrreldes sektoriga esinenud kehvemalt juba alates oktoobrist ning investorid peaksid kasutama võimalust ostmiseks.
What changed? Since initiating, three things have changed: 1) valuation discrepancy mentioned above - HUM has underperformed the group; 2) more confidence in upside - from enrollment and rates against conservative guidance; and 3) a lower risk profile - TRICARE risk removed. In particular, HUM nearly doubled 2011 MA and PDP membership guidance, early read on cost trends show a return to more normal levels (but no spike), 2012 preliminary MA rate increase of 1.6% looks favorable (some were expecting a decline), and TRICARE contract extension adds significant long-term EPS. TRICARE win a big deal. We estimate Street estimates will rise ~$0.20-0.30 for 2012 and $0.30-0.40 annually thereafter on TRICARE South contract extension announcement made after Friday's market close. The contract was set to expire 1Q12, but HUM will likely retin for another 5+ years.
TRICARE leping peaks lõppema 2012. Aastal,aga analüütikud usuvad, et tõenäoliselt pikendatakse lepingut veel viieks aastaks.
TRICARE lepingu pikendamine oli Humana jaoks kahtlemata oluline uudis. Möödunud nädalal andis HUM-le upgrade ka Cowen, kus samuti mainiti nimetatud lepingu jätkumist kui väga positiivset võimalikku katalüsaatorit. Aktsia tõusis too päev ca 5% ja seega võivad ootused osaliselt juba aktsiahinda ka sisse arvestatud olla, kuid sellegipoolest oli möödunud nädalal tegemist ainult võimaluse kui sellise arvestamisega, aga täna on TRICARE leping juba reaalsus. Lisaks sellele on $74 hinnasiht ka new street high ja aktsiale on "osta" soovituse täna andnud ka Stifel Nicolaus analüüsimaja. -
Kanada detsemrbikuu SKT 0,5% vs oodatud 0,3% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 3,2% vs oodatud 2,8%. USDCAD liikumas päeva ja ühtlasi üle kolme aasta põhjas 0,9751 juures.
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Kanada IV kvartali majanduskasv 3,3% vs oodatud 2,9% (Y/Y); IV kvartali jooksevkonto puudujääk C$11,0 mld vs oodatud C$9,7 mld.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HBC -4.5%.
Other news: CPF -25.8% (trading post split), SNTS -10.8% (Santarus and Pharming receives FDA Refusal to File Letter for RHUCIN Biologics License Application), HERO -1.6% (expects to amend credit facility), SD -1.2% (modestly pulling back).
Analyst comments: AMZN -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS - tgt cut to $180 from $195). -
Watch for a Failed Bounce
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/28/2011 8:48 AM EST
What we call chaos is just patterns we haven't recognized. What we call random is just patterns we can't decipher. What we can't understand we call nonsense. What we can't read we call gibberish. There is no free will. There are no variables. There is only the inevitable.
-- Chuck Palahniuk
The most remarkable aspect of this market's behavior since the bottom in March 2009 has been its amazing resilience. We saw dips in early 2010 and during last summer but overall it has been a straight up market. Generally when the market has a few days of weakness, such as we have seen lately, the market quickly regains its footing and goes straight back up without a pause.
Back in early 2009 when the market first started to bounce back from the carnage that had occurred in the fall of 2008, no one thought it would go straight back up. The conventional wisdom from technicians was that there would eventually be some sort of retest of the lows or, at least, another significant dip before we would put in a lasting bottom. Even the fundamental bulls never dreamed we would see the market recover the way that it did.
Obviously, no retest ever happened and, as a result, then there has been a large contingent of folks who have never quite been able to embrace this uptrending market. They keep waiting for that other shoe to drop, and it just never happened despite all sorts of bearish arguments about the artificiality of this market action. It has created a huge "wall of worry" for the market to climb and it has climbed it well.
So here we are again at a very familiar place with a good bounce kicking in just as the market was on the brink of rolling over. This time there is an even better fundamental argument than usual for the downside because the problems in the Middle East that are now spreading to other oil-producing counties such as Oman. Higher oil helped to pressure the market a couple years ago and it definitely not difficult to argue that it is a major headwind right now.
Even with these oil worries in the air, the market bounced back on Friday and ran straight up all day. The obvious risk of holding over the weekend and possibly having some bad news that drove oil up even more was completely ignored. Market players are so conditioned to buy each and every pullback, or risk being left behind again, that they bid the market up right into the close.
So we again have to confront the question of whether this market can pull off another V-shaped move and more straight-back-up action. It is not what chart readers typically expect. Usually after there is a sharp pullback, there are stuck bulls and aggressive bears who are looking to sell into a bounce. That causes another pullback and then the struggle for market direction begins again.
Once this market starts to bounce, you better jump in because it isn't turning back. This creates an environment of chasing by underinvested bulls, which squeezes the bears. Then, as the bounce continues, it becomes self-sustaining as everyone tries to add long exposure once again.
The news flow is definitely different this time and there are some very solid bearish arguments if oil prices start to rise and QE 2 winds down. However, betting against the upside is so tough to do in this market that we have to continually give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.
We are seeing the standard Monday morning strength to kick off the week, which is another amazing aspect of this market's behavior. Strength on the first day of a new month also has been a constant -- and that occurs tomorrow -- so the bulls have some positive to works with.
We have to watch for a failed bounce that traps the bulls and causes a mad scramble for the exits. That has been a rare event but if we are ever going to see a downtrend, that is what has to happen at some point. -
February Chicago PMI 71.2 vs 67.5 Briefing.com consensus; January 68.8
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Constellation Energy (CEG) jumps to HoD; Hearing strength being attributed to takeover chatter
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The Fed purchased $6.69 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $38.87 bln
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HUM-i call täna kahtlemata ka tähelepanu leidis, aga avanes kahjuks natuke liiga kõrgelt, mistõttu peale avanemist jäi aktsias tõusuruum limiteerituks. HUM avane $66,49 pealt ehk ligi 7% plusspoolelt ning päeva tipuks jäi aktsial $66,70. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia 4,6% plusspoolel, $65,50 kandis.
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Headline crossing indicating that the US has approved the first deepwater drilling permit following the BP accident
RIG, DO, ATW, NE, SLB, HOS, RDC, DVR, ESV, ATW, HAWK, DRQ, TDW, NBR -
Tänaseks päevaks on Fed POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) käigus kokku ostnud $380 miljardi väärtuses USA võlakirju ehk ca pool programmist on läbi saanud. Morgan Stanley on selleks puhuks avaldanud analüüsi, milles on hästi välja toodud, mida Fed õieti soetanud on.
Enim raha on USA keskpank kulutanud 7-aastase võlakirja soetamiseks ($128 miljarit ehk 28%) ning kõige vähem on ostetud 2-aastasi võlakirju ($11 miljardi väärtuses ehk 2% kogusummast). -
BofA/Merrill Lynch on täna väljas "julge" analüüsiga, milles kirjutatakse, et "Libya could well be the 8th largest supply shock since 1950" ehk teisisõnu prognoosivad panga analüütikud tugevat toornafta hinnatõusu.
Analüüsis kirjutatakse, et "in our view, the cocktail of further increases in oil consumption and a severe supply shock makes a spike & crash scenario more likely for global oil prices. Simply, if Brent prices hold at $110- 115/bbl in 2011, energy as a % of global GDP would stay close to record levels, suggesting that the point of demand destruction is in short sight. Even when looked at on a quarterly basis, we find that oil prices are already very close to the exceptionally high levels observed in 2008.
The price elasticity of global oil demand is very low. With a negative supply shock coming on top of a positive demand shock and energy prices reaching critically high levels, the price elasticity of global oil demand will ultimately determine how high oil prices go. Broadly, we would argue that a 10% increase in oil prices pushes down global oil demand by about 0.5%. In other words, a 600 thousand b/d production disruption should impact Brent crude oil prices by about 15% or $15/bbl, in our view. This calculation is consistent with the jump observed in recent days in response to Libya’s output disruption. Worryingly, it highlights the risk of further price rises if more production is shut in."
