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Börsipäev 2. märts

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  • Pärast eilset tihedat makronäitajate sadu ja enne homset eurotsooni neljanda kvartali SKT avalikustamist ning Euroopa keskpanga intressimääraotsust jäävad tänast turgude sentimenti määrama arengud MENA riikides, kus kasvanud pinged on tõstnud WTI uuesti 100 dollari lähedale ning tinginud suurenenud riskikartlikkuse. Enne USA turgude avanemist (kl 15.15) avalikustatakse veebruarikuu erasektori ADP tööturu küsitlus, mis võib anda teatud vihjeid reedese non-farm payrolli kohta, kuid arvestades kahe raporti viimase aja kontrasti, siis turuosalised enne reedest näitajat tõenäoliselt väga tugevalt end kõigutada ei lase.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nulli lähedal
  • Väidetavalt plaanib Yahoo! (YHOO) Softbankile maha müüa oma osa Jaapani Yahoost.
    Reuters kirjutab, et osaluse väärtus on ligi $7,5 miljardit, kuid ei Softbank ega ka Yahoo pole võimalikku tehingut kommenteerinud.
  • Suurbritannia veebruari PMI ehitussektori indeks tuli 56,5 vs oodatud 52,8 punkti. Naelsterling käis $1,6300 tasemel. Eile tegi GBPUSD uue 13 kuu tipu $1,6330 juures.
  • Eurotsooni jaanuari tootjahinnaindeksid 1,5% vs oodatud 1,1% (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 6,1% vs oodatud 5,7%. Euro kaupleb hetkel 0,15% plusspoolel $1,3800 piiri peal.
  • Hommikul oli juttu Yahoo! (YHOO) võimalikust Jaapani osaluse müügist ja selle teema jätkuks on täna Evercore Partners analüüsimaja andnud YHOO-le ka "osta" soovituse koos $22 hinnasihiga.

    Our rating upgrade is based on the increased likelihood for a tax-efficient separation of Yahoo! Japan, attractive privately-held off-balance sheet assets in Taobao and Alipay, and a better stock entrypoint, given the unexpected management turnover at Alibaba.com. Tax-efficient Yahoo! Japan separation likely.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et Jaapani Yahoo osaluse müük on vägagi tõenäoline ning saab teoks ning seejuures leitakse ka võimalikult soodne lahendus maksude osas. Kuigi Softbank pole oma ostusoovi kinnitanud, siis vaatamata sellele näevad analüütikud firma jaoks teisigi lahendusi.

    Expect Yahoo! and Softbank to come to agreement over the best course of action to pursue for Yahoo! Japan. Softbank reiterated that it is not seeking to acquire Yahoo!’s stake in Yahoo! Japan. However, we see several divestiture scenarios as being open to Yahoo!, and we believe a solution will be found.

    A few things also make us feel better about the core business, including strong display industry growth, comments from MSFT regarding the search platform integration, and attractive core valuation relative to peers. First, while Yahoo!’s engagement trends remain tenuous, overall industry display growth remains strong. For instance, Google said on two occasions this past week that they expect display growth as an industry to grow four fold over the next several years. Second, while lower search conversion as a result of the transition to the MSFT ad center platform has resulted in lower revenue-per-search (albeit higher click pricing), a recent discussion of ours with MSFT’s search group suggests yield improvement potential for Yahoo! is beyond the mid-single digit levels to which the
    companies originally guided.


    Lisaks sellele on ilmet võtmas ka firma põhitegevus ning Microsofti (MFST) hiljutine avaldus otsingumootori integratsiooni osas annab analüütikutele alust oletada, et olukord võib olla isegi parem, kui välja paistab. Ühtlasi on interneti reklaamiturg ( online display) tõusutrendil, sest näiteks Google ootab tõusu jätku mitmeks järgnevaks aastaks.

    Yahoo! (YHOO)-st olen varemgi foorumis juttu teinud ja näiteks Doug Kass on veendunud, et YHOO ise võetakse käesoleval aastal üle. Igal juhul on aktsia võimalikule Jaapani Yahoo müügile positiivselt reageerinud ning YHOO kaupleb eelturul 2,8% plusspoolel, $16,55 kandis.

  • February ADP Employment Change 217K vs 163K Briefing.com consensus
    January ADP number revised to 189K from 187K
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GAME +10.6% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity), MCOX +9.2% (also SINA and DongXiang enter into agreements to acquire shares of Mecox Lane and Memorandums of Understanding for strategic cooperation), PAY +4.2%, ASNA +3.8%, BGS +1.7% (ticking higher).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: VGZ +7.7% (reports combined mineral resource estimate for the Yellow Pine-Golden Meadows Project; est indicated mineral resources of 1.7 mln oz of gold), NEM +2.8%, EXK +2.4%, AZK +2.0%, PZG +1.9%, CDE +1.7%, AUY +0.8%, IAG +0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: AAV +3.8%, HERO +3.6%, GMXR +3.7%, ROYL +3.6%, BDCO +2.4%, ATPG +2.2%.

    Other news: CYTX +6.9% (new breast reconstruction procedure demonstrates long term success in European Trial; Data reported from Cytori's RESTORE-2 Study of the Celution System), BDSI +6.3% (confirms NDA pathway for BEMA Buprenorphine/Naloxone for opioid dependence following FDA meeting ), FSIN +5.3% (retains financial and legal advisors to consider proposal by a group headed by co's Chairman and Co-CEO, Li Fu, to take co private), YHOO +4.6% (strength attributed to continued speculation the company is planning to sell stake in Japan joint venture), CEDC +3.3% (modestly rebounding), INO +2.5% (provides 'compelling' results in in a study of its DNA vaccine for foot-and-mouth using proprietary delivery system), BBBB +2.2% (approves a share repurchase program that authorizes the co to repurchase up to an aggregate of $100 mln of its common stock), PBH +2.2% (to replace Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates in the S&P SmallCap 600).

    Analyst comments: TXN +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), XLNX +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), CRM +1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity).
  • International Air Transport Association (IATA) langetas 2011. aasta lennundussektori puhaskasumi prognoosi $8.6 miljardini, varasemalt prognoositi kasumiks $9.1 miljardit ning eelmisel aastal oli vastav näitaja $16 miljardit. Põhjuseks toodi just tõusvad naftahinnad. IATA ütles, et kuigi käesoleval aastal oodatakse reisijate arvu kasvuks 5.6% ja kaubamahtude kasvuks 6%, vähendavad kõrged naftahinnad lennufirmade marginaale. IATA sõnul moodustavad kütusekulud ca 40% lennufirmade tegevuskuludest. (link)
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DY -6.2%, SINA -4.9% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity and upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), MBI -3.2%, JOYG -3.2%, TIVO -1.2%.

    A few JOYG peers ticking lower: TEX -0.8%, CAT -0.6%.

    Other news: GTY -10.7% (Lukoil transfers ownership of Getty Petroleum Marketing, downgraded at JPMorgan), DTLK -8.8% (to offer common stock in offering pursuant to effective shelf registration statement for 2.2 mln shares by Datalink and 800K shares by selling shareholders), WFT -7.5% (files to delay its 10-K), WATG -6.5% (announces its financial restatements to FY08 and FY09; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer ), HCBK -3.7% (still checking, co filed its 10-k prior to the close yesterday), MET -3.7% (announces offerings of common stock), CLR -2.9% (announces public offering of 10,000,000 shares of common stock), EOG -1.2% (prices public offering of 11.8 mln shares of common stock at 105.50).

    Analyst comments: ELX -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity), CNP -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank).
  • The Market Is Ripe for Active Traders
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/2/2011 9:02 AM EST

    It all depends on how we look at things, and not on how they are themselves.
    -- Carl Jung

    With two big down days of trading out of the last six, the character of the market is undergoing a change. For more than two months we went almost straight up with only minor pullbacks, but now the sellers are becoming more aggressive and the dip buyers are more cautious. We even had a failed bounce, which is probably the first time that has happened since September.

    The issue to be addressed is whether this is a change in character that we should expect to persist for a while, or just another little bout of weakness that will be overcome and completely forgotten, like all the other pullbacks since March 2009.

    Fundamental factors suggest that this time it may not be so easy for the bulls. The biggest issue is that the unrest in the Middle East is continuing, and there are concerns that it is now spreading to the most important oil producing country of all, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi stock market was down more than 5% last night and is off 20% since the problems began. Crude oil is heading over $100 a barrel, and there are no indications that the resulting uncertainty will change soon.

    In addition to oil, we have had more and more talk lately about the dangers of inflation and the likelihood that the Fed is going to start looking for a way to exit from their Quantitative Easing program. Ben Bernanke did little to comfort the market yesterday, which is a shift, mainly because he was less positive about the prospects for an endless flood of Fed created liquidity.

    There are plenty of good reasons why the market's path going forward is going to be rather bumpy, but the good news is that that it favors the opportunistic and active traders. There is more risk when we don't just go straight up every day, but there is also more opportunity when we can go down just as easily as we can go up.

    What we have to do is make sure we have the right mindset in place. Many traders struggled during the uptrend because they were never able to embrace the one-sided nature of the action, so they were out of tune and always scrambling to catch up. We need to avoid that condition and stay open-minded about the current environment.

    The good news is that this sort of action is a good time to reset and start with a clean slate. If you haven't already cut weak positions and raised cash, it is a good time to do so. A high level of cash is always helpful in gaining a proper market perspective.

    The market is jittery once again this morning, but there are upgrades of stocks like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Salesforce.com (CRM) , so there is some "value" buying interest after some big hits. At this point the market is working on building a trading range, so it is extremely important that we hold above recent lows corresponding with the 50-day simple moving average, around 1292 to 1294 of the S&P 500.

    Now that we have had one good failed bounce, there is greater likelihood that we will see another if we try to come back too fast. Failed bounces create upside resistance as the increase the supply of trapped bulls and help the bears gain confidence.

    It is an active trader's market at this point, so keep an open mind and be ready to move fast.

    No positions.
  • Saudi börs kukkus täna veel -4% (eile -7%). WTI nafta hind püsib hetkel jätkuvalt veel protsent plussis ja see ilmselt ka turule oluline, mis suunas nafta edasi liigub.
    Martin Wolf toob tänases FTs välja, mida nafta hinnatõus majandusele teeb:

    "...at current prices, a jump in prices of $20 a barrel would raise spending on oil by about 1 per cent of world spending on all products. Over the past 10 months, however, prices have risen by $40. That would make the effect close to 2 per cent of world output – enough to trigger a noticeable global slowdown, at least in the short run."(link)

    Artiklis väga oluline rõhuasetus - kui kiiresti probleemid Lähis-Idas lahenevad? Endale tundub, et kiiret lahendust sealsetele probleemidele ei ole ja kõrgem nafta hind survestab veel mõnda aega majandust.
  • Eelmisel nädalal tõusis nafta hind kahe päevaga ca 14%, mis on seitsmes kord alates 1982. aastast, kui kahe päevaga on nafta hind tõusnud 10% või enam. Wall Street Journal toob välja, et sellele järgnenud kuuel kuul on S&P 500 keskmine tootlus olnud -9.3%. (link)
  • Täna tasub radaril hoida Apple'i (AAPL) aktsia, kuna ettevõte tutvustab avalikkusele uut iPadi. Mingid kuulujutud räägivad, et uut tahvelarvutit saab seekord ka kohe osta. Panen siia Briefingust kokkuvõtte, mida iPad2-lt oodatakse (mõne tunni pärast saab näha, kas Apple ka neid ootusi rahuldab või ületab):

    * FaceTime: The integration of FaceTime, a software application that allows video conferencing among AAPL products, has been a big recent push for Apple. FaceTime has been included in the iPhone 4 and the recently refreshed MacBooks. All that said, it's a good bet that FaceTime will be a key feature on display during tomorrow's event. To support FaceTime, the new iPad will have to come equipped with a front-facing camera. In addition, the tablet may come with a camera on the back to function as the product's main camera for users to take pictures (something the original iPad lacks).
    * Network: Another key feature will be the products carrier availability. When the first iPad was launched last April, it was only offered as a WiFi model or an AT&T (T) model. Since then, of course, Verizon (VZ) has jumped on board with Apple and launched the iPad at its stores in a bundle with a MiFi (mobile hotspot from Novatel Wireless (NVTL)) as well as the iPhone 4 on its network. Now with dual carrier support, Apple is rumored to use Qualcomm's (QCOM) new chipset that runs on both the GSM (T operates on this network) and CDMA (VZ operates on this network) wireless spectrums.
    * SD Card Slot: There is chatter that the new iPad may add a dedicated SD slot. This would suggest that the tablet would bypass a USB port alltogether. Of note, SNDK is an SD card maker, while SIMO makes chips used in SD cards.
    * Pricing: There is not expected to be any change in pricing. We'd note the iPad starts at $499 for a WiFi model with 16GB and ranges up to $829 for a 64 GB model with 3G.
    * Miscellaneous: One of the biggest knocks on the iPad has that it's been too heavy. AAPL is almost surely to address that concern tomorrow with a lighter (probably thinner) iPad this time around, although the screen size is no expected to change. Other upgrades will likely include a faster processors -- likely AAPL's own chip that will almost certainly run on ARM (ARMH) architecture. Also, the new iPad's display will likely get a boost in resolution and an increase in memory (remember that AAPL is the largest consumer of Flash memory (SNDK)) and a longer battery life. Finally, the latest rumors suggest that AAPL may launch the iPad 2 in two colors -- Aluminum and White.
  • The Fed purchased $6.69 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $32.15 bln
  • Mela Sciences (MELA) on täna 23% plusspoolel kauplemas, kuna firma teatas, et esitas USA ravimiametile taotluse oma nahavähi avastamiseks mõeldud seadme kasutajate limiteerimiseks. Teisisõnu püüab firma saada heakskiitu kitsamale kasutusringkonnale.

    MELA Sciences, Inc. Files MelaFind PMA amendment with U.S. FDA
    - Filed an amendment to the MelaFindpre-market approval (PMA) application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), limiting the indication for use to dermatologists.


    Aktsia liikumise põhjal võiks järeldada, et turuosalised usuvad, et see asjaolu tõstab heakskiidu saamise võimalust. Teatavasti hääletas USA ravimiameti komisjon (panel) möödunud aasta lõpus üllatuslikult seadmele heakskiidu andmise poolt.

    Adam Feuersteini kommetaar aga uudisele on selline: issue #1 for $MELA they havent proven the device does anything ! < -- a minor inconvenience! Ha!
  • As expected, short term government funding bill gets enough votes to clear Senate
  • American Eagle (AEO) spikes after Najarian, on CNBC, highlights call buying activity in the name
  • Apple spikes 2 points as AAPL event begins with CEO Jobs taking the stage
  • Apple's Jobs, at event, says it recently crossed 200 mln iBooks accounts; just shipped their 100 millionth iPhone
  • Apple's Jobs, at event, says AAPL has over 90% of the tablet mkt share
    Apple's Jobs, at event, says there are 65K apps for the iPad, it's compared with 100 for GOOG's Honeycomb platform
    Apple's Jobs, at event, introduces iPad 2 with new design and faster A5 chip
    Apple's Jobs, at event, notes iPad 2 is 1/3 thinner, front and back-facing cameras with same battery life as original, lighter 1.3 lbs from 1.5 lbs
    Apple's iPad 2 will have both AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) models; comes in black and white; pricing has not changed, begins at $499
    Apple's iPad 2 will ship on March 11th in the US; more countries to follow on 3/25-3/26
  • Silicon Image (SIMG) jumps nearly a point on news that AAPL iPad 2 will have an HDMI accessory -- SIMG holds the license to HDMI technology
  • Apple's unveils new iOS 4.3 software will add wireless hotspot option to all iPhone 4s
    Apple showcases new iPad cover that works with magnets to stick to the cover, comes in poly and leather, 10 colors
  • Siin siis ka kokkuvõte iPad2-st:
    Co confirms its introduced iPad 2. iPad 2 features an entirely new design that is 33 percent thinner and up to 15 percent lighter than the original iPad, while maintaining the same stunning 9.7-inch LED-backlit LCD screen. iPad 2 features Apple's new dual-core A5 processor for blazing fast performance and stunning graphics and now includes two cameras, a front-facing VGA camera for FaceTime and Photo Booth, and a rear-facing camera that captures 720p HD video, bringing the innovative FaceTime feature to iPad users for the first time. Though it is thinner, lighter, faster and packed with new features, iPad 2 still delivers up to 10 hours of battery life that users have come to expect. iPad 2 is available in black or white, features models that run on AT&T's (T) and Verizon's (VZ) 3G networks, and introduces the innovative iPad 2 Smart Cover in a range of vibrant polyurethane and rich leather colors.
  • Fed says labor market strenghtened on manufacturing, retail
    Fed's Beige Book says economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February
  • Alcoa has become a minority investor in Electronic Recyclers International, the largest U.S. recycler of electronics waste

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