Börsipäev 3. märts
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Toornafta hind on viimase tunni jooksul saamas taas müüki (-1%), kui meedias jooksevad läbi pealkirjad Liibüa võimalikust rahuplaanist. USA futuurid on sellest osaliselt tuge saamas ning kauplevad hetkel 0,5% kõrgemal.
Euroopa sessiooni ajal tulevad täna avaldamisele Suurbritannia veebruari PMI teenuste indeks (kl 11.30), eurotsooni neljanda kvartali SKT muutuse esmane hinnang ja jaanuari jaemüük (kl 12.00), kuid tähtsaimaks kujuneb Euroopa keskpanga igakuine kohtumine ja sellele järgnev pressikonverents, kus oodatakse värskeid eurotsooni majanduskasvu ning inflatsiooni prognoose. USA poolel avalikustatakse iganädalane töötuabiraha taotluste number (kl 15.30), mille suurusjärguks prognoosib konsensus 400K vs 391K eelneval nädalal. Kestvate taotluste suurusjärguks prognoositakse 3800K ehk tõusu 10K võrra. Kell 17.00 raporteeritakse veebruari ISM teenuste indeks. -
Suurbritannia teenustesektori PMI tuli oodatust veidi madalam: 52,6 vs prognoositud 53,7. jaanuaris oli see 54,5.
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Kui see tänane Itaalia uudis nüüd tõele vastab, siis peaks solar sektor täna küll kergendusralli saama. Ehk ei kukugi Itaalia turg päris kokku, nagu juba kardeti:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFWEB325620110303
Siin vastukaaluks ka üks pessimistlik arvamus Axiom Capitalilt, eilse kuupäevaga:
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/03/898953/exclusive-axiom-capital-versus-jefferies-on-italys-solar-
Tänane artikkel Itaalia ajakirjandusest google-translate kaasabil:
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&sl=it&u=http://www.repubblica.it/ambiente/2011/03/03/news/ok_decreto_romani-13120606 -
Jim Cramer on välja tulnud väga julge avaldusega maailma üheks edukaimaks investoriks tituleeritud Warren Buffetti kohta. Nimelt toob Cramer Mad Money`s välja viis põhjust, miks Buffett rumal on, viidates siis tema eilsele teleesinemisele, kus legendaarne investor rääkis pikemalt oma nägemusest nii majanduse kui ka aktsiaturgude osas.
Muu hulgas laidab Cramer täiesti maha Buffetti idee investeerida Ameerikasse, sest esimese arvates ei toimu seal juba ammu midagi ning kogu tootmine on kolinud Hiinasse.
Teisi põhjuseid, miks Crameri arvates Buffett kõige rumalam mees maailmas on, saab lugeda siit. -
Euroopa keskpank üllatusi ei paku ja jättis intressimäära muutmata 1% peale. Euro kaupleb 0,09% madalamal $1,3854 juures.
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C'mon, see on ju iroonilises võtmes kirjutatud, nagu viimasest lausest välja tuleb. :D
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Ma arvan, et Crameri taolise avalduse eesmärk ongi ainult tähelepanu võitmine kui midagi enamat, sest sisulisi argumente sellele avaldusele just ei järgne.
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Initial Jobless Claims 368K vs 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 388K from 391K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.774 mln from 3.833 mln -
BMO Capital Markets on täna väljas positiivsete kommentaaridega Research In Motion (RIMM) kohta.
BMO kinnitab oma „osta“ soovitust, nimetavad RIMM-i oma parimaks valikuks ( Top pick) ning tõstavad hinnasihi $92 pealt $100 peale.
RIMM is expected to report earnings on March 24 after the close. We expect another very solid quarter, with guidance that is much higher than Street estimates. Our checks indicate that RIMM is seeing strength in all regions outside North America, despite a lack of new products in the quarter. We believe the Torch, 9300, 8520, and rollout of BB 6.0 are all leading to upside. We expect a better product cycle in the second half, and string Playbook demand. We are raising estimates, and believe consensus will once again move meaningfully higher after the report. RIMM is now our top pick.
Analüütikud usuvad, et firma teatab 24. Märtsil järjekordsest heast kvartalist. Nende uuringute põhjal on RIMM kõigis regioonides väljaspool Põhja-Ameerikas näitamas tugevust, vaatamata uute toodete vähesusele antud kvartalis. Ühtlasi usuvad nad ka, et konsensus tõstab oma prognoose peale firma tulemuste teatamist.
Eile esitles Apple (AAPL) oma uut iPadi, mis tõenäoliselt vähendab tänase BMO kommentaari mõju. Teisest küljest on aga BMO näol tegemist Kanada analüüsimajaga, kes peaks RIMM-i tegemistega ehk teistest rohkem kursis olema. $100 hinnasiht on vägagi atraktiivne ning tänase positiivse turu taustal võiks eeldada, et BMO call äratab siiski turuosaliste huvi. Kuid tuletan ka meelde, et tegemist pole reitingumuutusega ning turu vastu see ilmselt ei tööta.
Hetkel kaupleb RIMM $66,60 peal ehk 1,1% plusspoolel. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: DUSA +18.9%, SHS +18.8%, WEBM +13%, CMFO +8.1%, GPRE +7.7%, ZUMZ +5.8%, BIG +5.8%, MMLP +3.3% (light volume), EGLE +2.5%, VLO +1.9%.
M&A news: GTEC +50.8% (to be acquired by Ares Management for $24.25 per share in cash), ALU +3.8% (trading higher following M&A speculation), .
Select financial related names showing strength: PMI +5.1%, KEY +2.4% (continued momentum from yesterday's late pop), DB +2%, PRU +1.6%, UBS +1.3%, MET +1.1% and AIG +0.8% (MetLife and AIG unit prices common stock and common equity unit offerings), BAC +1.1%, C +1.1% (reports of bid for its consumer lending unit).
A few rare earth names ticking higher following reports that companies are buying stake in Brazilian rare metal miner: REE +2.1%, MCP +1.5%, SHZ +1.5%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: CFW +13.5%, SUF +11.8%, HERO +3.3%, TIV +2.7%, SD +2.4%, ATPG +1.9%, WFT +1.8%, CHK +1.0%, EOG +0.8%, XOM +0.7%, SLB +0.7%.
Other news: EPCT +20.8% (EpiCept identifies Ceplene survival benefit in key AML subgroup), BPAX +20.7% (pancreas cancer vaccine shows survival increase in newly published study), TASR +6.7% (to purchase up to $12.5 million of the Company's common stock), NVMI +5.7% (receives $12 mln orders from 3 major foundries), CLWR +4.6% (reports that the co is nearing resolution with Sprint), RCL +3.6% and CCL +2.0% (checking for anything specific), ITMN +2.2% (receives European Union approval for Esbriet), DB +2% (still checking), CCL +2% (still checking), SHPGY +1.5% (European Commission approves self-administration label for FIRAZYR for the Symptomatic Treatment of Acute Hereditary Angioedema Attacks).
Analyst comments: ERIC +3.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), ASML +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Societe Generale), HCN +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS). -
ECB President Jean Claude Trichet Press Conference- says risk to the outlook for price is to the upside
EUR/USD juba ~0.5% üleval -
Trichet pressikonverentsi saab jälgida otsepildis siit.
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angelp on täna juba juhtinud tähelepanu solaritele, lisan siia tänase Notable Callsi http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/
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ECB inflatsiooniprognoos 2011. aastaks on 2,0-2,6% ja 2012. aastaks 1,0-2,4% ehk veidi kõrgemad kui detsembris. Euro on pressikonverentsi ajal kallinenud dollari suhtes 0,55% tasemele 1,3940
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Trichet says recovery activity will be dampened by balance sheet adjustment in various sectors... see GDP 1.3-2.1% in 2011; 0.8-2.8% in 2012; lower end of December projections were shifted higher; March 2011 are broadly in line with forecasts from international organizations
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ECB President Jean Claude Trichet Press Conference: Says change of rate in the next meeting 'is possible'
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: FSYS -14%, GSX -11.7%, SIGM -8.7%, ROIAK -7%, GEF -5.9%, DDS -4.8%, CBEY -3.1% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), CQB -2.1%, TGT -1%, .
M&A news: FDO -2.4% (Family Dollar's board unanimously affirms commitment to strategic plan; says unsolicited, conditional proposal from Trian Group to acquire co substantially undervalues the co).
Select gold/silver related stocks trading lower: GSS -3.0%, HL -2.3%, PZG -2.2%, GRS -2.1%, EGO -2.1%, EXK -2.0%, CDE -1.8%, NG -1.7%, GG -1.5%, SSRI -1.5%, ABX -1.4%, IAG -1.4%, KGC -1.3%, AEM -1.3%, AUY -1.3%, PAAS -1.1%.
Other news: AMLN -26.7%, ALKS -15.6% and LLY -1.5% (provide top-line results from DURATION-6; patients receiving BYDUREON experienced a reduction in A1C of 1.3 percentage points from baseline, compared to a reduction of 1.5 percentage points for Victoza), OPK -8.7% (intends to offer and sell $100 million of its common stock), MGN -6.4% (prices offering of 4,800,000 shares of common stock at $3.15/share), MMYT -4.7% (files for a 6 mln ordinary share offering; 1.6 mln shares are being offered by the co and the remaining 4.4 mln shares are being offered by selling shareholders). -
A Return of Logic
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/3/2011 8:48 AM EST
Life is 10% of what happens to me and 90% of how I react to it.
-- John Maxwell
Doug Kass wrote a piece yesterday morning about how he has been too negative about the market over the past year. My first reaction to his comments was that he sure wasn't alone. It has been almost impossible to consider the macroeconomic picture, with its high unemployment rate and weak housing, and believe that the market would go up in a straight line for many, many months.
What so many market players, including me, failed to appreciate was the power of quantitative easing. Good earnings helped as well, but it was the Fed's printing press that created an amazingly one-sided market like few market players have ever seen. Adding to the manipulated feel of the market action was how different it felt from the prevailing sentiment on Main Street. You would be hard-pressed to find much optimism from the folks you encountered on a daily basis, but the market has acted like we are in one of the greatest economies ever.
I've discussed this disconnect in sentiment between Main Street and Wall Street many times and have also written at length about how QE2 has helped to create a lopsided market that hasn't felt normal for quite some time. Even if you recognized all these factors that have served to drive the market so steadily, it has still been extremely difficult to be a fully committed bull. How could you not have some doubts in the back of your mind about this market when the economic headlines have been so weak for so long?
My advice about the market has been to try to embrace the action that is in front of you and to stay with the trend. Don't try to anticipate tops and don't use fundamental arguments to justify a bearish stance. It is quite easy for me to write that advice, but so difficult to do when there is a very smart and persuasive bear sitting on your shoulder, constantly whispering in your ear about how this economy is a train wreck.
As the unrest in the Middle East has boiled over, there has been a definite change in the feel of the action. We suddenly have some negative news -- in the form of higher oil prices -- that the market is actually worried about. The market has ignored anything negative for so long that the action suddenly feels more logical when we start to move in both directions for a change.
I have to admit I feel greatly refreshed now that we finally have some downside. I feel that it is finally a good opportunity to gain a better feel for the mood of the market.
If you have been fighting the unending uptrend or just had some doubts about it, you now have an opportunity to reset and regain your objectivity. We have a chance now to catch our breath and, hopefully, will now be able to trade in a more logical fashion. I don't know if this more normal action is going to last for long, but at least we will have an opportunity to be more aggressive if we return to the sort of artificial-feeling market action we had from September to mid-February.
Despite the uptrend we enjoyed for so long, this market has been a lot tougher to trade than it looks. At long last we are finally having a good opportunity to position ourselves more effectively both mentally and financially.
Use this choppy market action to adjust your thinking and to stay in tune with the action that is in front of you. The market always eventually produces a new set of opportunities for traders who stay focused, and that is what is happening now.
We have a fairly strong open on the way as oil is pulling back on some talk about peace efforts in the Middle East. I suspect that oil isn't done yet and that the market will remain volatile as the news headlines roll out. -
Võiks keegi täpsemalt teada anda, mis juhtus AMLN-ga?
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Sarnaselt tööstussektorile viitab ka veebruarikuu teenuste ISM indeks hoogustuvale kasvule sektoris:
February ISM Services 59.7 vs 59.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 59. -
Wynn Resorts: Wynn Macau traded 3.0% lower in Hong Kong after Macau Daily Times reported language in 10-K suggests increased junket competition could result in WYNN paying higher commissions
US WYNN $127.27 tasemel ~1% tõusus -
Marek9, siin põhjus:
A long-awaited experimental diabetes medicine from Eli Lilly & Co (LLY.N) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMLN.O) that patients need to inject only once a week failed to match up to a rival treatment taken daily, sending Amylin shares tumbling 25 percent. (link) -
RIMM-l võttis täna liikuma saamine aega. Aktsia avanes $66,84 pealt ehk 1,6% plusspoolel ning jäi ca tunniks liikuma $66,70-$67,20 vahemikku, siis aga tegi järsu liikumise üles, käies ära ka üle $68 taseme. Hetkel kaupleb RIMM $67,80 kandis ehk 3% plusspoolel.
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The Fed purchased $7.24 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $21.66 bln
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President Obama makes statment on Libya; says time for Gaddafi to leave
