Börsipäev 7. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuu algus kipub olema makro osas suhteliselt rahulik ning sestap kujuneb käesoleva nädala graafik pärast möödunud nädala avaldamisi võrdlemisi tagasihoidlikuks. Olulisemateks sündmusteks võiks USA-s olla töötuabiraha taotlused (neljap) ja veebruari jaemüük (reede) ning Euroopas Eurogroup’i ja Ecofini kohtumine (reede), kus enne 24-25 märtsi miitingut tõenäoliselt midagi konkreetset siiski välja ei kuulutata. Neljapäeval peab oma märtsikuu kohtumise Inglise keskpank.
WTI aprilli futuur jätkab reedest tõusu kaubeldes ägenenud rahutuste tõttu Liibüas 1,8% kõrgemal 106,3 dollaril, surudes Aasia indeksid ja USA futuurid miinusesse (hetkel +0,4%). Olulisi makrouudiseid täna oodata ei ole. -
Eurotsooni jaoks on uus nädal algamas negatiivselt: Iirimaa 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus tegi euroala rekordi 9,477% juures.
Ja Moody's alandas Kreeka reitingu Ba1 pealt B1 peale; väljavaated negatiivsed. -
Euro on saanud uue hoo sisse ning hetkeseisuga on uueks nelja kuu tipuks tehtud $1,4016.
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Jaapani reitinguagentuur R&I on väljastanud hoiatuse, mille kohaselt võidakse alandada Jaapani reitingut enne aprillis toimuvaid valimisi.
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Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et analüütikud on Venemaa suhtes aina positiivsemaks muutunud ning nüüd on selles leeris ka Credit Suisse analüütikud, kes ütlevad, et nii naftahind kui ka rahvusvahelised intressimäärad on Venemaa majandust toetamas ning vähemalt lühiajaliselt prognoosivad nad Vene turu tõusu.
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Venemaa - einoh, tõesti - nüüd, kui ollakse alates 2009ndast veidi juba tõustud, on tõesti kõige õigem aeg öelda, et mnjaa, me arvame, et läheb ka edaspidi hästi. Tegemist on protsentuaalse tõusu graafikuga USD ja EUR.
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Karum6mm, millal siis Silvanot kokku kühveldama hakkad. Oled mees või ei ole?
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Business Insider'lt äärmiselt iroonilise pealkirjaga uudis: Moody's Downgrades Greece, And Portuguese Yields Are Surging, So Of Course The Euro Is Rallying.
Kulla aprilli futuur tegi uue kõikide aegade tipu $1443,30 juures. -
TaivoS, Silvano peab selleks veel 217% tõusma. ;)
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Olen nõus börsivälise tehinguga!
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TaivoS, FI vaatab, ma ei saa! :-D
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Ma Nipuleerin
Sa Nipuleerd
Ta Nipuleerib
Nemad Nipuleerivad
Meie Nipuleerime
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Karumõmm, ära muretse, FI vaatab ainult ajareas odavamalt müüdud tehinguid, sind see antud juhul ei ohusta
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arvon, goodone! ;)
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CIEN -6.6%, KCAP -4.6% (light volume).
Other news: RGEN -22.6% (reports Phase 2b Results for RG2417 for bipolar depression; did not demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in the symptoms), OCZ -5.7% (files for $100 mln stock offering), JOE -2.4% (pulling back following Friday's late pop; disclosed after the close that it has authorized and adopted Amendment No. 1 to the shareholder protection rights agreement).
Analyst comments: WMS -3.3% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), BYD -3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), TAP -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), REN -0.6% ( downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JRCC +4.7% (also acquires International Resource Partners and Logan & Kanawha Coal in all cash transaction for $475 mln), HOGS +2.1% (also announces follow-on common stock offering).
M&A news: CFSG +23% (China Fire & Sec Grp announces receipt of 'Going Private' proposal), TOMO +27.0% ARAY +5% (Accuray to Acquire TOMO for $4.80 per share; ~$277 mln in Cash and Stock).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MMG +10.5%, EXK +6.8% (announced that it has received approval to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange), MDW +6.1%, XRA +5.5%, PZG +4.8% (announces "more positive" results from nevada project: new resource estimate in progress ), NGD +3.5%, SVM +3.3%, CDE +2.9%, GG +2.9%, SLW +2.8%, HL +2.8%, SSRI +2.8%, PAAS +2.8%, UXG +1.9%, ABX +1.8%, GLD +1.1%.
Rare earth names seeing notable strength following China Commerce Minister comments: AVL +6.1%, REE +4.5%, MCP +3.3% (initiated with an Outperform at CIBC).
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: GMET +18.9%, TIV +9.6%, DEJ +8.6%, SUF +7.3%, TGC +7.2%, RAME +6.4%, IOSP +6.3% (fuel additives), LEI +4.7%, WFT +2.9%, BP +1.5%.
Other news: MEDW +10.5% (thinly traded, still checking), WDC +6.7% (Western Digital to acquire Hitachi Global Storage Technologies in transaction valued at ~$4.3 bln ), SYMX +6.6% (still checking), TTI +2.8% (explores strategic alternatives for its E&P business), JASO +2.3% (JA Solar and MEMC announce solar cell production joint venture), PNC +1.7% (ticking higher; strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper), MET +1.2% (following positive mention in financial newspaper).
Analyst comments: FMER +2.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), SBUX +1.4% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade). -
TaivoS, minagi ostaks Silvanot, aga arvan, et meie börsil algab hooajaline langus. Ostan suvel, kui on jälle alla 3-e.
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Market Faces Many Headwinds
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/7/2011 8:42 AM EST
"Indecision is the seedling of fear."
--Napoleon Hill
Some market participants may question the market's correlation with oil prices in the long run, but recently we have been highly sensitive to the movements in crude. The problem is that we just don't know how long the problems in the Middle East will last and how far they are going to drive up the price of crude. One thing we can agree on is that high oil is a negative for most stocks, especially if it is being driven by a contraction in supply rather than an expansion in demand.
Despite the obvious negative of higher oil, we are ignoring fresh record high crude prices in the early indications this morning. Futures were down all night but have moved into positive territory as European markets experience mostly benign action.
In view of how often we have had strong Monday morning opens since the lows in March 2009, it feels like it is just reflexive behavior, so we obviously will need to be careful. The likelihood is that a strong open will attract sellers looking to fade the strength, so the real test will be to see how well we hold up on the first dip after the open.
There is no question that the market has become more volatile lately. We had a real roller coaster ride since breaking down on Feb. 22. Since then, we have had two very strong bounces and two pullbacks. The bulls, who have had endless V-shaped bounces for a long time, suddenly had to deal with the phenomena of a failed bounce.
This back-and-forth action is helping to create a trading range with the highs around 1,332 and the lows around 1,295, which also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. The 50-day moving average is going to be a very important level on the downside. We have not had a close below that level since September 2010. It is likely to be a level that is defended by dip-buyers, but if it is breached, the market trend will definitely be turning to the downside.
A trading-range market with the danger of a possible change in the intermediate trend is a market that favors active trading. The buy-and-holders have enjoyed a great run, but now the risks of just holding on and waiting for stocks to keep on trending upward is much more dangerous. It is possible that we are just undergoing some consolidation that will set the stage for another leg up, but the market action suggests we better not be too sanguine.
There is no big mystery about what is happening. The market does not like the uncertainty of higher oil and is struggling to price in its impact. Since we have no idea how long this will persist, we can't do it with any degree of precision, and that is causing the increased volatility.
Aside from oil, we have also had more talk about the issue of inflation, and there continues to be only minor improvement in employment and housing. There are plenty of headwinds with which this market must deal, and the fact that we are entering a slower time of the year seasonally doesn't help.
The good news is that the increased volatility is providing some good trading if you are aggressive, flexible and stay very short term. I'm a bit perplexed with the strength in the market this morning with oil so strong, so we'll have to see what happens once we start to trade. Small oils are flying in the early going, so that is going to be the key sector to watch once again. -
Täna on Oppenheimer väljas positiivsete kommentaaridega OmniVision Technologies (OVTI) kohta.
Oppenheimer kinnitab oma „osta“ soovitust ja tõstab OVTI hinnasihi $40 pealt $50 peale.
Our channel checks on OVTI indicate that recent chatter about competitive share losses and BSI2 yield problems are a lot of hooey. It's true (as we've previously reported) that a surge in demand has left OVTI capacity constrained, and that this has made it difficult to fully support lower priority customers and markets. But according to our checks OmniVision is winning the business it wants to win and retaining the customers that have been the cornerstone of its success in recent years. We're increasingly confident that the strong underlying growth trends and design win momentum will translate into another step-function revenue increase in late F1Q12, as incremental capacity (all BSI2) ramps.
Analüütikud lükkavad ümber hiljuti tekkinud spekulatsiooni teemal nagu kaotaks OVTI turgu ning oleks probleeme BSI2 tootmise ajakavaga. Oppenhimeri uuringute põhjal on taolised väited täiesti alusetud ja seda vaatamata sellele, et OVTI tootlikkus suure nõudluse tõttu on olnud mõnevõrra piiratud.
Some have speculated that OVTI's BSI2 process is experiencing yield problems. Our inquiries strongly suggest otherwise. With an initial ramp only a few months away, OVTI's supply chain is more sanguine about the BSI2 process than it was a year ago about BSI1. If there's gross margin risk around BSI2, it's likely to the upside.
Our research indicates BSI2 will very likely begin ramping ahead of schedule, in late C2Q11. OVTI announced its 8MP BSI2 on the one-year anniversary of its 5MP BSI announcement. We believe the BSI2 ramp will likewise mirror the BSI1 production timeline to sync with the rollout of key handset launches.
Analüütikud ütlevad, et pigem alustatakse BSI2 tootmist isegi varem ning kokkuvõtteks on firmal tugev kasvupotentsiaal ning on veendunud, et firma tugev kasvupotentsiaal realiseerub.
Üldine hinnang OVTI võimalustele ning hetkevaluatsioonile kõlab analüütikute poeesiahõngulises sõnastuses alljärgnevalt:
Bottom line, OVTI is leading a sensor market that's breaking out in both size and profitability. The gap between that prospect and the abject state of OVTI's valuation (8.5x ex-cash) is comedy, tragedy and opportunity wrapped into one. The drama we find rather tiresome, but the potential upside is handsome recompense.
OVTI pole täna kindlasti kergete killast olukord, sest ühest küljest on aktsia viimase nädalaga tõusnud ligi 10 punkti ning turuosalised võivad tänast Oppenheimeri calli kasutada müügiks, teisest küljest on OPCO analüütikute kommentaarid aktsiat hästi liigutanud ning lisaks sellele on $50 hinnasiht ka new street high. Kuna tegemist pole reitingumuutusega ,siis jälgiks selle calli puhul ka turgu.
Hetkel kaupleb OVTI eelturul 2,2% plusspoolel ,$34,25 kandis. -
Föderaalreservi liige Richard Fisher ütles tänases kõnes, et ta ei toeta stiimulprogrammi laiendamist ja võib hääletada QE2 ennetähtaegse lõpetamise poolt.
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Fedi liige Lockhart ütles aga, et QE3 on võimalik, kui USA majandus peaks suuna uuesti allapoole võtma.
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Good Fortune: Our Sentiment Indicator has a more pronounced down-trend than our Trend Indicator. My outlook is this growing fear component will be result in (at least) one more market upswing ahead. The most useful case will be if it develops into a strong resumption of positive Sentiment and a comparatively weak Trend increase. Such a divergence is a remarkable indicator of a significant market top.
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AlariÜ - selle kommentaari genereeris misasi? Random financial market comment generator? :-D
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Sry, panin siia 2 väljavõtet US traderite foorumist ehk pakub huvi:
McMillan: With the Semiconductor Index and both bank indexes leaning bearish, the caution flag is out. We are particularly concerned about the Bank Index as its chart suggests further downside ahead.There are a number of reasons to believe this rally could continue here, but there are more and more reasons to doubt it. We may be approaching the top we've been predicting for late March. For now, we remain long but that could change shortly.
Ultra.R (Russell) switched from cash to long on 1/10. Ultra.Q (NDX) switched from long to cash on 2/9.
Ultra.500 (SPX) switched from cash to long on 12/8. The Summation Signal reversed from short to long Friday.
ETF Timer Ultra (NDX) increased from 40% short to 60% short on 2/24. The StockBarometer reversed from short to long Friday. Both monthly bullish periods have ended. -
Kreekale igatahes tänane reitingu langetamine ei meeldinud:
RTRS-GREECE SAYS MOODY’S DOWNGRADE COMPLETELY UNJUSTIFIED -FIN MINISTRY
RTRS-GREECE SAYS TIMING, SIZE OF DOWNGRADE ARE INCOMPREHENSIBLE, RAISES QUESTIONS
RTRS-GREECE SAYS MOODY’S DOWNGRADE SHOWS NEED FOR TIGHTER REGULATION OF RATING AGENCIES
Siin on Kreeka rahandusministeeriumi pressiteade. -
The Fed purchased $6.61 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $29.61 bln.
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BT Group PLC: Hearing upgraded at tier 1 firm
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Turg on täna korraliku müügisurve alla sattunud ning ilmselgelt polnud OVTI-l kütust tänasele langusele vastu seista. Nagu hommikul öeldud oli olemas tõenäosus, et turuosalised kasutavad OPCO calli müügipõhjusena ning nagu näha on täna kõik endale müügiks põhjuse leidnud. OVTI leidis mõningast ostuhuvi küll eelturul ja turu esimestel minutitel, sest aktsia avanes $34,47 peal ehk 3% plusspoolelt ning käis kiirelt ära ka $35 all, aga sealt edasi on aktsia allapoole tulnud ning hetkel kaupleb $32,40 kandis, 3,3% miinuspoolel.
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Homme alustatakse USA-s kohtupidamist Raj Rajaratnami üle, kes teatavasti on saanud süüdistuse siseinfo kasutamise eest.
Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et juba praegu hakkab protsess meediatsirkuseks kujunema. Raj advokaadid väidavad, et nende kliendi õigus saada õiglane kohtuprotsess on kahjustatud, kuna SEC otsustas möödunud nädalal juba trahvida Raj sõpra Rajat Guptat.
Seega nüüd on kaitse eesotsas John Dow`ga, tuntud ka kui kohtu pitbull, otsustanud võtta vandekohtu valimisel tarvitusele spetsiaalsed meetmed. Nimelt on saadud valmis küsitlusega, mille alusel vandekohtu liikmed välja valitakse ja küsitluse eesmärk on muu hulgas välja selgitada, mida arvab potentsiaalne vandekohtu liige riskifondidest ja Wall Street`i aususest. Küsimustikku kogumahus saab lugeda siin. -
Bespoke on välja toonud joonise korrelatsioonist S&P 500 ja nafta hinna vahel alates aktsiaturgude põhja moodustamisest 2009. aasta 9. märtsist. Nagu näha, siis aktsiaturu ja nafta hinna vahel valitses kuni viimase ajani valdavalt keskmine või tugev positiivne korrelatsioon ehk nafta hindade tõustes tõusid ka aktsiahinnad. Praegu on seos aga vastupidine ehk tugevalt negatiivne, korrelatsioonikordaja on -0.7. Seega hakkas aktsiaturgudele nafta hind muret valmistama $90 juures.
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January Consumer Credit +$5.01 bln vs +$3.3 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to $4.09 bln from +$6.6 bln
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Verisk Analytics- VRSK volume alert with +500K trading in the last 10 min. on the move to new session highs
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BP kohta jäi silma üks tehniline analüüs: http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
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American Eagle: CNBC, citing the WSJ, says American Eagle looking for new CEO
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Urban Outfitters prelim $0.45 vs $0.52 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $668.4 mln vs $674.92 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
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USA valitsuse veebruarikuu eelarve defitsiit ulatub esialgsete andmete kohaselt $223 miljardini - suurim ühe kuu puudujääk USA ajaloos.
