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Börsipäev 8. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pärast eilset müügisurvet Euroopa ja USA börsidel on Aasias sentiment pisut paranenud, kui indeksid kauplevad valdavalt kerges plussis (Nikkei +0,19%, Hang Seng +1,22%, Shanghai Composite -0,19%). USA indeksite futuuridki on praeguseks korralikult taastunud (+0,45-0,6%), ent nagu viimased nädalad on näidanud, siis sõltuvalt arengutest MENA riikides ja nafta hinnast võib õhtupoolikuks sentiment juba hoopis teine olla.

    Tänane makrokalender on jätkuvalt väga õhuke ning suurimat tähelepanu võiks pälvida Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse tellimuste muutus jaanuaris (kl 13.00), mille puhul oodatakse paranemist võrreldes nõrgapoolse detsembriga.
  • Eile 107 dorrali juurde jõudnud WTI aprillikuu futuur on täna liikunud tagasi 103,4 dollarile (-1,9%) ja Brent 118,5 dollarilt 113,3 dollarile, kuna Al Jazeera kohaselt on Gaddafi nõus võimust loobuma, kui talle tagatakse turvaline väljapääs riigist. Lisaks peab OPEC läbirääkimisi naftatootmise võimaliku suurendamise osas.

  • Eile sai mainitud, et Atlanta Fedi president Dennis Lockhart ei välista QE3 käivitamist, kui USA majandus peaks uuesti langusse vajuma. CNNi vahendusel veel mõned mõtted Lockhartilt nafta hinnast ja stiimulprogrammist:
    If oil prices continue to climb, it could force the Federal Reserve to make a new round of asset purchases, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart.

    Appearing at the National Association of Business Economics in Arlington, Va., Lockhart said that while he doesn't think additional purchases are currently warranted, more stimulus could be needed if oil prices continue to climb.

    "If [the rising price of oil] plays through to the broad economy in a way that portends a recession, I would take a position we would respond with more accommodation," Lockhart said at the conference.

    Though he doesn't think current oil prices around $106 a barrel are a problem, he said the evidence is clear that oil spikes can bring about a recession.

    "I think at the $120 range ... it's a manageable level," he said. "Around $150 it becomes a much more serious concern."
  • Euro on pärast eile tehtud 4 kuu tippu $1,4035 tasemel taandumas ja kaupleb täna 0,35% madalamal $1,3920 juures.
  • If oil prices continue to climb, it could force the Federal Reserve to make a new round of asset purchases, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart.

    Ei tea mis põhjusel? Üldiselt inflatsiooni vastu võiks võidelda intresside tõstmise mitte täiendava stimuleerimisega. Kas USA ja FED ei saa enam üldse nõela otsast maha või? Põhjendatud ja vajaliku stimuleerimise ajad on ammu ammu läbi. Keskpanga eesmärk olgu peatada tugev kukkumise faas. Kui ärisektor ei suuda kohe august rakettmootoritega välja lennata, siis nii olgugi. See tähendab et tuleb aeglane rahulik taastumine. Mis neutraalsele keskpangale ei tohiks häiriv olla. Millegipärast FED aga on ülimalt sekkuv ja majanduskasvu rada täpselt ette joonistav. Tegemist on plaanimajandusega. Ajalugu tõestab, et ECB mis reaktsiooniliselt inflatsioonile reageerib on adekvaatsem kui FED. Tõenäoliselt just seetõttu on ka FEDi kekspankurid üsna viimasel ajal rääkinud inflatsiooniohjamisest ja oma mandaadist ja oma dual mandaadist ja oma mandaadi järgsest tegutsemisest. Mis muidugi on naeruväärne kuna kriitikameel paistab ameeriklasi üha rohkem maha jätvat.
  • USA kõrge eelarve defitsiit on kahtlemata ka tingitud suurtest kuludest tervishoiule ning sellele tõigale lisab värvi juurde endine Morgan Stanley analüütik Mary Meeker, kes ütleb, et USA võlakoorem on nii kõrge kuna ameeriklased on paksud.
    Business Insideri vahendusel saab lugeda, et CDC (Centers for Disease Control) andmetel olid 2008. aastal 32% ameeriklastest ülekaalulised, mida on võrreldes 1990. aastaga 15% rohkem. Meekeri sõnul oli ca 7% 2008. aastal tervishoiule kulutatud $2,1 triljonist seotud rasvumisest tingitud haigustega ja toob võrdluseks, et antud summa on suurem kui ettevõtete tulumaksu laekumine sel aastal.
  • Mary Meeker - tädi, kelle kopsudest tuli kunagi päris palju õhku tehnoloogiamulli ;)
  • ComScore andmetel sai Google'i Androidist jaanuaris USA populaarseim nutitelefonide operatsioonisüsteem edestades RIM’i BlackBerry’t. Androidi turuosa tõusis oktoobri 23.5% pealt 31.2% peale.
  • Inglismaa keskpanga MPCs toimub väike vahetus: Andrew Sentance, kes on olnud pikemat aega intressimäärade tõstmise poolt, vahetatakse välja Goldman Sachsi Euroopa vanemökonomisti Ben Broadbent'i vastu. Sentance lahkub mai lõpus ja Broadbent'i esimene MPC kohtumine saab olema juunis.

    Tundub, et ka Broadbent pooldab monetaarpoliitika normaliseerimist.
  • Saksamaa jaanuari tehastetellimused +2,9% vs oodatud +2,5% (M/M) ja +16% vs oodatud +15,6% (Y/Y). Eeelmise kuu näidud korrigeeriti allapoole.
  • Kreeka 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus tõusis 12,77% peale - kõrgeim alates euro tulekust 1999. aastal.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BSFT +23.2%, SNHY +14.1%, RDNT +8.1%, CCIX +7.5%, CNIT +5.8% (ticking higher), JAZZ +5.5%, CCIH +4.1%, DKS +3.0% (ticking higher), MLNK +3.0% (light volume), OUTD +2.0% (light volume).

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: DEJ +3.3%, MPET +3.2%, SUF +3.1%, RIG +1.6%, E +1.4% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), TIV +1.4%, HERO +1.3%.

    Other news: MGI +12.0% (announces recapitalization agreement), ATRN +12.5% (continued strength from yesterday 80%+ surge higher), SCON +5.4% (continued momentum), GPL +4.8% (continued strength), AEO (ticking higher following late reports that the co is searching for new CEO).

    Analyst comments: EXPE +3.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), MIPS +3.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark), NVDA +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), CIEN +2% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), WFT +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • Jefferies on täna väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) kohta.
    Jefferies alandab CMG reitingu „hoia“ pealt „müü“ peale koos $198 hinnasihiga.


    More Exposed to Food Cost Pressures: Based on its inability to participate in meaningful forward purchase contracts on its produce and naturally-raised proteins, we believe Chipotle could be more negatively impacted from further food cost inflation, on a relative basis. While the company provided guidance last month for mid-single-digit food cost inflation in '11, suggesting about 150bps of COGS margin pressure and 10% of EPS headwind, this was based on the assumption that food cost inflation would not accelerate further beyond the high levels in early February. Unfortunately food costs have continued to move higher since. This outlook does not include the potential 200bps hit from near-term produce spikes.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et toiduainete hinnatõus mõjutab firmat rohkem kui siiani arvatud. CMG ise prognoosis veebruaris toiduainete hinnatõusu 10% mõju EPS-le, siis analüütikud ütlevad, et see prognoos oli antud eeldusel, et toiduainete hinnatõus ei jätku. Kuid paraku on hinnad alates sellest ajast jätkuvalt tõusnud.

    What about pricing flexibility? Although CMG does not have any material “Food with Integrity” news planned for 2011 from which to leverage additional price increases (historically only raised prices in connection with such value-adding menu changes), the company could decide to roll out broader menu pricing later in 2011 to offset some this inflation. However, we believe this could potentially hurt traffic trends down the road, as the company will also lap double-digit traffic growth from the 2H 2010.

    Kuigi firma pole teada andnud plaanist hindu tõsta, siis analüütikud usuvad, et selline otsus võib siiski aasta lõpupoole tulla eesmärgiga kasvõi osaliselt inflatsiooni leevendada, mis omakorda võib negatiivselt mõjutada külastatavust.

    Labor inflation. Although CMG made impressive labor efficiency gains since its IPO in '06 (~400bps since ’05 & ~500bps PF since ’03), we think rising wage inflation, inefficiencies related to retraining hundreds of new employees in MN, and more stringent hiring practices could pressure margins.

    Lisaks eelnevale võib marginaalid surve alla panna ka suurenevad tööjõukulud, mille taga on palgatõus ning koolituskulud.

    CMG aktsia on oma tippudest küll natuke järele andnud, aga on üleüldisele müügisurvele siiski üsna hästi vastu pidanud. Samas tuleb Jefferies analüütikutega selles osas nõustuda, et jätkuvalt kallinevad toiduainete hinnad ei saa CMG äritegevust mingil moel mõjutamata jätta. Kauplemise seisukohast on CMG aktsial kalduvus avaneda üsna madalalt ning peale avanemist teha läbi korralik spike. Minu arvates võib CMG täna müüki näha küll.


    Eelturul kaupleb CMG 2,8% miinuspoolel ehk $245,50 kandis

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: URBN -13.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), CASY -6% (also downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Feltl), AMCN -4.9%.

    Other news: HTCH -11.3% (announces manufacturing consolidation & restructuring plan; actions expected to lower annual costs by $45-60 mln), TIVO -5.5% (announced a $120 mln convertible sr notes private offering), EXEL -4.5% (announces proposed public offering of 12.5 mln shares of its common stock), FISI -4.4% (announced the commencement of an underwritten public offering of ~$40 mln of its common stock), NFLX -3.1% (Reports out that Warner Bros. Entertainment will begin offering movies for purchase or rent on Facebook), MFA -2.8% (announces offering of 60 mln shares of common stock), PAA -2.6% (commences an underwritten public offering of 6.4 mln shares of common units representing limited partner interests).

    Analyst comments: LDK -3.0% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Collins Stewart), HK -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CMG -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), NSM -2.4% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), XRTX -2.3% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), QCOM -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets).
  • CNBC reporting OPEC has no current plans for an extraordinary meeting
  • Biodel (BIOD): Hearing initiated with Buy at boutique firm
  • China Security and Surveillance (CSR) jumps 20% following receipt of non-binding 'going private' proposal at $6.50 per share
    Hetkel kauplemas $5.07 23.66% kõrgemal
  • It's About the Oil, Stupid
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/8/2011 9:04 AM EST

    "It is clear our nation is reliant upon big foreign oil. More and more of our imports come from overseas."

    --George W. Bush

    There is only one thing that matters to this market right now and that is the price of crude oil. Unfortunately, there just isn't any clarity about where it is heading with the situation in Libya still in flux and the start of protests in Kuwait against that country's prime minister.

    Oil is down slightly overnight as OPEC talks about increasing production, but given OPEC's track history, it's extremely difficult to have any confidence in their promises. There is also talk that Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi is trying to negotiate a deal, but that is being denied officially. We've lost our early strength as concerns over oil re-emerge.

    The bottom line is that this market has a big cloud of uncertainty hanging over it, and it is showing signs of breaking down. We have now had two failed bounces since the initial market breakdown on Feb. 22, and we are obviously in danger of testing recent lows again. We are still above the low of Feb. 24 and the S&P500 has yet to breach its 50-day simple moving average, but there is no question that the character of the market has recently shifted. We aren't seeing aggressive dip-buying, and the bulls are obviously feeling less confident than they did just a few weeks ago.

    What makes this environment particularly challenging is that we are so sensitized to the price crude oil. A little pullback in oil immediately attacks buyers, but then any news about the unrest in the Middle East quickly produces selling once again.

    We still haven't really broken down technically. If you step back and look at the bigger picture, we have hardly corrected at all given the size of the move since the end of August. So far this is little more than some healthy consolidation after a giant move, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be on guard for something more severe.

    The key to success in the market is to align your account as close to its highs as possible. That requires some aggressive action when we start to weaken, but if you can avoid taking big losses as we correct, you have a huge advantage. There is nothing more unproductive than having to recoup losses to move your account back to its highs. If you can avoid that, you can be extremely selective and end up outperforming.

    This market is forcing us to be more defensive right now. Our primary goal should be to avoid losses and protect capital. Once we have done that, we can focus on finding trading opportunities to build up our gains.

    After early strength in futures, they have turned back down as worries continue to grow over oil. The bounce buyers have showed up late the last couple days, but they definitely do not have the zeal they exhibited during our endless uptrend.

    The good news is that if you've played strong defense, further weakness is going to produce some good opportunities. We just need to stay vigilant and wait for them to develop.
  • The Fed purchased $7.66 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $29.5 bln
  • Paraku oli CMG täna täielik möödapanek mu poolt, sest aktsia reageeris downgrade`le ainult eelturul ning avanes liiga alt ehk ligi 3% miinusest, $245,42. Oli arvata, et peale avanemist CMG liigub uuesti üles, aga eeldasin, et see müüakse ka uuesti alla, mida aga paraku ei juhtunud. Aktsia kosumisele on muidugi ka turg tuge pakkunud ning CMG kaupleb hetkel 0,4% miinuspoolel ehk $251,50 kandis.
    Fail.



  • Boeing (BA) and ILFC announce order for 33 Next-Generation 737-800s worth more than $2.6 bln
  • $32bln 3-yr Note Auction Results: 1.298% (Expected 1.305%); Bid/Cover 3.22x (Prior 3.01x, 10-auction avg 3.14x); Indirect Bidders 34.4% (Prior 27.6%, 10-auction avg 38.9%)
  • Patriot Coal (PCX) shares spiked after Najarian, on CNBC, highlighted heavy call buying in April 26 and 30 calls
  • Integral Systems (ISYS) sees quick pop as renewed takeover rumor makes the rounds
  • NFLX on täna müügisurve alla sattunud (-5%), kuna hommikul teatas Facebook, et kavatseb samuti tüki Netflixi filminäitamise pirukast hammustada ning on sõlminud Warner Bros. Entertainment`ga lepingu, mille järgi hakkab Facebook välja rentima filme $3 või 30 Facebook`i krediidi eest.
  • Douglas Kass: gun to my head the market has seen the high for the day..
    Kass usub, et tänaseks on turg oma tipud ära teinud.
  • Kes soovib turul ilma reaalset raha kaasamata tegutseda, siis nendele on abiks virtuaalsed aktsiamängud.
    Siit leiab ehk mõni huviline endale sobiva.
  • Naistepäeva puhul oleks paslik lugeda intevjuud, mis on tehtud Nina Godiwallaga, kes hiljuti avaldas raamatu oma kahest aastast, mis ta töötas Wall Street`l ( Morgan Stanley`s nooremanalüütikuna). Tema sõnul nägi selle paar aasta jooksul üsna palju kummalist käitumist ning koges ka mitmeid raskusi firmasse sisse elamisel, mille tingis tema sugu ja taust. Intervjuu ise loetav siin.

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