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Börsipäev 9. märts

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  • Tänane börsipäev on Euroopa turgudel algamas ettevaatliku hoiakuga, kui olulisemate indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel nulli lähedal ning sarnast meeleolu on väljendamas kas USA indeksite futuurid.

    Makrouudistest pälvivad täna ilmselt suurimat tähelepanu Saksamaa tööstustoodangu jaanuarikuu muutus (kell 13.00) ning USA jaanuari hulgimüüginumbrid (kl 17.00). Riskipreemiate suurenemine Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirjaturgudel tõstab rambivalgusesse Portugali tänase võlakirjaoksjoni, kus üritatakse müüa 1 miljardi euro eest 2013. aasta võlakirju.
  • Nafta hind on liikunud sellel nädalal allapoole, kuna Saudid lubasid suurendada nafta pakkumist seoses meeleavalduste eskaleerumisega kodusõjaks Liibüas.
    Samas on nafta hind liikunud vaid paar dollarit allapoole, kuna paljud analüütikud kahtlevad Saudi Araabia võimes nafta pakkumist suurendada. Goldman Sachsi hinnangul vähenes Saudide vaba tootmisvõimsus juba enne Liibüa rahutusi märgatavalt:

    While just three months ago we estimated spare capacity to be around 2.5-3 million b/d, recent developments suggest that OPEC spare capacity could actually have dropped below 2 million b/d already. (link)

    (lisan veel siia juurde, et viimati langesid OPECi vabad tootmismahud 2 miljoni barreli juurde päevas 2008. aastal, kui nafta hind tõusis $147ni).
  • Thomas Lee (aktsiaturgude peastrateeg JPMis) ootab peatsel algaval tulemustehooajal aktsia hindades korrektsiooni. Põhjuseks on kõrgem nafta hind, mis sunnib ettevõtteid prognoose vähendama (hiljutine nafta hinnatõus võib S&P500 ettevõtete EPSi paari dollari võrra vähendada). Lee seisukohti saab kuulata Bloombergile antud intervjuus siin.
  • Kas 11. märtsil ei peaks Saudi Araabias meeleavaldused algama? Käis selline uudis läbi.
  • Suurbritannia jaanuari kaubandusbilansi puudujääk oli oodatud £4 mld asemel £2,95 mld; detsembri puudujääk suurendati £4,83 mld pealt £5,475 mld peale.

    Ilma teenusteta oli puudujääk oodatud £8,5 mld asemel samuti parem ehk £7,057 mld, kuid eelmise kuu puudujääk korrigeeriti samuti suuremaks £9,686 peale.

    Naelsterling on kerget tuge saamas, kaubeldes 0,16% kõrgemal $1,6185 juures.
  • Homme alustab USA turul kauplemist USA suurimat erahaiglate ketti omav HCA Healthcare (HCA).
    Reuters kirjutab, et vaatamata firma tohutule võlakoormale ($26 miljardit) usuvad analüütikud siiski, et investorite huvi saab olema aktsia vastu suur.
  • Saksamaa tööstustoodang kasvas jaanuaris 1,8% võrreldes eelneva kuuga, ületades sellega Bloombergi 1,7%list konsensuse ootust. Aasta baasil ulatus kasv 12,5%-ni (prognoositi 11,1%). Euro selle peale suuremat liikumist ei teinud ning kuapleb dollari suhtes 0,15% madalamal @ 1,3883 USD. USA futuurid aga teevad päeva tippe, kaubeldes 0,05-0,2% plusspoolel.
  • Portugal müüs täna 2013. aasta võlakirju ning märgitud yieldiks kujunes 5,993% vs 4,086% mullu septembris sama tähtajaga võlakirjade oksjonil. Nõudlus ületas pakkumist 1,6x vs 1,9x septembris.
  • Portugali 10-aastae võlakirja tulusus on langenud euroala rekordtasemetelt, tingituna kuuldustest, et Euroopa keskpank on perifeeriariikide võlga ostmas. Euro on kauplemas 0,18% kõrgemal $1,3927 juures (päeva tipp $1,3941).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COOL +44.6%, AVAV +21.2%, CRDN +15.8%, CKEC +11.1% (also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman), HERO +9.4%, FMCN +5.9%, PUK +5.6%, STP +5%, KERX +3.8%, HCII +3.5% (light volume), PGH +1.4% (ticking higher).

    Select metals/mining stocks ticking higher: IAG +2.1%, AUY +1.5%, ABX +1.1%, MDW +0.9%, SLW +0.8%.

    Other news: AEZS +14.5% (Aeterna Zentaris and Yakult Honsha sign a development, commercialization and licensing agreement for lead oncology compound, Perifosine, for the Japanese Market), LNG +5.6% (modestly rebounding), AIS +3.6% (still checking), FRO +2.7% (still checking), NOK +1.6% (Nokia Siemens Networks clarifies status on Motorola transaction; closing will not be completed as previously targeted).

    Analyst comments: TSN +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), RIG +1.2% (initiated with a Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FNSR -37.3%, DMND -9.4%, SAM -9.1%, EM -3.9% (light volume), OAS -2.4%, TXN -0.6%.

    FNSR related names under significant pressure following the co's earnings/guidance/commentary: OCLR -12.8%, JDSU -12.2%, OPLK -10.8%, EMKR -9.4%, CIEN -8.5%, OPXT -7.8%, AFOP -7.1%, INFN -5.4%, AVGO -4.6%, ASIA -3.6%, EXFO -3.5%, APKT -1.5%, RVBD -1.3%, BCSI -1.3%.

    Other news: WG -10% (delays fourth quarter 2010 earnings release and conference call), DYN -9.3% (discloses update in 10-K; projects that it is likely will not be able to comply with certain covenants), SOL -4.5% (announces offering of $175 mln of convertible senior notes ), DTLK -4% (prices follow-on public offering of 3.71 mln shares of common stock at $5.75 ), EPB -3% (plans to sell 12 mln common units in an underwritten public offering), CX -1.6% (to offer U.S. $600 mln aggregate principal amount of convertible subordinated notes due 2016 and U.S. $600 mln aggregate principal amount of convertible subordinated notes due 2018), O -1.6% (commences an underwritten public offering of 6 mln shares of common stock), .

    Analyst comments: POT -2.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citi), XOMA -2.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord), MOS -1.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citi).
  • Täna on Citi väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Mosaic (MOS) ja Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT) kohta.
    Citi alandab POT ja MOS-i reitingu „osta“ pealt „hoia“ peale koos hinnasihiga vastavalt $60 ja $84.


    After a Great Run, a Pause to Refresh – Fertilizer equities have been among the best performing stocks over the past eight months. Stock prices in our fertilizer universe have increased on average more than 100% since last July compared to a gain of ~27% for the S&P 500. We are not turning bearish on the fundamentals of the fertilizer cycle, which remain robust as we confirmed during our recent trip to Brazil. However, we think much of the good news is factored into current equity prices. Realized fertilizer prices will improve as old contracts run off and more product is shipped at newly announced higher prices, boosting earnings. But this trend is reflected in high P/E multiples for the group. Lacking well-defined near-term catalysts, we see growing risk that the stocks could trade sideways into the summer.

    Analüütikute sõnul on väetisetootjate aktsiad olnud turul ühed parimad ning pikemas perspektiivis on nad sektori suhtes endiselt väga positiivsed, aga hetkel usuvad nad, et enamus häid uudiseid on juba aktsiahindadesse sisse arvestatud. Võttes aluseks, et lähiajal katalüsaatoreid tulemas ei ole, usuvad analüütikud, et aktsiad võivad külgsuunas kuni suveni liikuma jääda.

    Clarity Emerging on Potash Price Momentum – Potash price increases appear to be sticking. Based on our conversations with dealers the $560/st price will likely be accepted but we think that this may be the last price hike in North America until the fall. Current prices should prevail through the inter season in Brazil and the summer fill season in North America.

    Potase hinnatõus on analüütikute arvates selleks hetkeks raugenud ning usuvad, et enne sügist enam uut hinnastõusu Põhja-Ameerikas ei näe.

    Antud downgrade puhul pole kindlasti tegemist väga mõjuka calliga, pigem võib seda nimetada natuke üllatavaks, sest sentiment antud sektoris on väga bullish. Nagu analüütikud ka ise ütlevad, siis nad ei tee oma prognoosides olulisi muutusi ehk pigem soovitavad investoritel aeg maha võtta. Ilmselt teatava müügisurve ( kuni 3%) see täna aktsiates ka tekitab, aga suurt langust me täna ei näe.
    Hetkel kaupleb MOS $79,70 juures, 2,3% miinuspoolel ja POT $56,80, 2,5% miinuspoolel.
    Ootaks natuke paremaid hinnatasemeid.




  • Märtsikuu gloomboomdoom raport toob esile, kuidas money market fondidest on raha riskantsematesse varaklassidesse (k.a. aktsiaturud) liikunud:

    Samuti mainib raport, et National Survey of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) viimaste küsitluste järgi on keskmine varahaldur 97% net long.
    Seega meeleolu kahtlemata bullish, mis jätab omakorda ruumi lühiajaliseks korrektsiooniks (märts on turgudel ka närviliselt alanud).
  • Doug Kass ütles aga hetk tagasi, et tema on oma lühikeste postitsioonide osakaalu suurendanud viimaste nädalate kõrgeimale tasemele.
    Doug Kass: i am back to my highest short exposure in several weeks now.
  • Doug Kass: Oops! .. I did it again.


    Ta sirgeldab nii tihedalt, et pole väga mõtet üle reageerida.
  • Back on the Range
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/9/2011 9:11 AM EST

    "A good battle plan that you act on today can be better than a perfect one tomorrow."

    -- General George S. Patton

    One thing that has made trading very difficult over the past couple of years has been the lack of trading ranges. With the exception of the period from late April, 2010, to Sept. 1, 2010, we have generally had a persistent uptrend. Traders who sold into strength constantly found themselves being left behind, as the market kept on running straight up. A buy-and-hold approach worked quite well during that sort of uptrend, but active trading was at a disadvantage.

    In view of the very choppy action we have had for a couple of weeks now, it appears that the tide has shifted and the market is now rewarding a more active trading approach. If you have bought weakness and sold strength recently, you have probably produced favorable results. It actually has paid to not just sit with a bunch of longs and do nothing.

    Trading ranges are a function of market uncertainty. The bulls and bears battle back and forth as they take turns believing that things are finally going to break their way. A high level of conviction one way or the other can be deadly.

    Obviously, it is the Middle East and oil that is producing the uncertainty in the current market. One day it looks like there might be some positive development and oil moves down, but then the next day oil is up on the latest fear and the market is back down. Back and forth we go, reacting as the mood shifts.

    If we are now in a period of a protracted trading range, it is important that we make some mental adjustments. The most important is that we can't count on the market to bail us out of bad trades. When we don't go straight up after every little dip, we have to make sure we don't allow ourselves to be trapped in failed long positions. A related issue is that we need to be more aggressive about taking gains when we have them, as they can quickly slip away as the market bounces around.

    The main adjustment we need to make in trading-range action is to stay open-minded and be more flexible. We can't be dogmatically bullish and blindly ride an unending uptrend; we have to be ready for the market to eventual break out of the range one way or the other.

    The good news is that the back-and-forth action and greater volatility create more opportunities. Many good stocks are punished and can offer opportunities for bargain hunters; also, charts tend to do a better job of separating out the better stocks. We actually see more technical patterns that work the way they should, as market players sort out the stocks that have the best potential.

    It is trading-range market right now, so keep that in the forefront of your mind. If the range persists, then further strength is going to be another selling opportunity. With oil still presenting major uncertainty, that should come as no big surprise.

    We have a little weakness to start the day. A very disappointing report from Finisar (FNSR) is hurting the technology sector. Especially troubling were comments about a slowdown in China business. That could have major repercussions if other companies confirm that they have experienced that as well.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
  • MOS ja POT liikusid täna üsna ootuspäraselt. MOS avanes $79,29 ehk 2,7% miinuses ning liikus peale avanemist $80 alla ja seejärel kukkus kiirelt alla $79. POT avanes $56,81 ehk 2,5% miinuses ning kukkus kohe peale avanemist $56 juurde. Nagu hommikul ka öeldud, polnud tegemist väga mõjuka calliga, kuid oodatud müük 3% ulatuses siiski aset leidis. Hetkel kaupleb POT $56,10 juures ehk 3,8% miinuspoolel ja MOS $79,90 kandis, 2 % miinuspoolel.



  • J.P. Morgani analüütik Mark Moskowitz hoiatab investoreid võimaliku tahvelarvutite mulli eest.
    Marketwatch.com veebilehe vahendusel võib lugeda, et JPM analüütik pelgab, et paljud ettevõtted, kes ruttavad oma tahvelarvutitega Apple iPad´i edust osa saama, võivad enda võimalusi üle hinnata ning ei pruugi loodetud kasu saada.
    Mitmed ettevõtted nagu Motorola Mobility (MMI), Samsung ja ViewSonic on oma uued tooted juba turule toonud, kuid tulemas on veel, nende hulgas ka Research In Motion (RIMM) ja Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).

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