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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 11. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Võlaprobleemid Euroopas, rahutused Lähis-Idas ja Põhja-Aafrikas ning tänane võimas maavärin Jaapani ranniku lähedal on lisamas närvilisust globaalsetel turgudel. Pärast negatiivset sessiooni Aasias on Euroopa indeksid alustanud päeva ligi protsendise langusega ning USA futuurid on küll päeva põhjadest pisut kosunud, kuid kauplevad siiski 0,3% miinuses.

    Põhifookuses saavad täna ilmselgelt olema maavärina järelmõjud ning tagajärjed, millele täiendavalt lisavad pinget rahutused MENA riikides. Makrost tuleb täna avaldamisele USA veebruarikuu jaemüük (kl 15.30), Michigani tarbijasentimendi indeks (kl 16.55) ja jaanuarikuu ärivarud (kl 17.00).
  • DailyFXi andmetel on turgudel liikumas jutud, et Portugal hakkab täna ametlikult päästmist paluma.
  • Suurbritannia veebruari tootjahinnaindeks output +0,5% vs oodatud 0,6% (M/M) ja jaanuari näit korrigeeriti 1,0% pealt 1,1% peale. Tootjahinnaindeksi input tuli 1,1% vs oodatud 1,5% (M/M) ja jaanuari näit korrigeeriti 1,7% pealt 2,3% peale.
    Naelsterling on kukkunud uude 3 nädala põhja $1,6020 juurde.
  • Jeen on Jaapani maavärina peale huvitavalt reageerinud - esialgu odavnemine ja seejärel märgatav kallinemine.

    Sama juhtus ka 1995. aasta maavärina järel. Põhjus ilmselt selles, et katastroofiga seotud kulude katmiseks kasvab jeenide järgi nõudlus:
    "Investors increasingly believe the serious damage to infrastructures will require repatriation of the yen for massive rebuilding efforts," said Uwe Parpart, an economist with Cantor Fitzgerald in Hong Kong. (link)
  • Kanada tööhõive suurenes veebruaris oodatud 25 tuhande asemel 15,1 tuhande inimese võrra (jaanuaris 69,2K); töötusmäär jäi püsima 7,8% peale, kuigi oodati 0,1 protsendipunktist langust.
    Täistööajaga töökohti jäi samas 23,8 tuhande võrra vähemaks (jaanuaris +31,1 tuhat); osalise tööajaga kohti lisandus 38,9 tuhat vs 38 tuhat jaanuaris.
  • Affymax (AFFY) upgraded to Buy at Auriga U.S.A; tgt raised to $10
  • GOOG juba mõnda aega korraliku müügisurve all. Kaufman Bros täna positiivsete kommentaaridega väljas. Kas need positiivsed kommentaarid ka ostuhuvi äratavad, see on hetkel veel suur ?

    Kaufman notes Android is now the #1 mobile platform in the U.S. and Europe with Google having over 60% share of the U.S. mobile advertising market, growing 60% Y/Y in 2011. The firm believe mobile search accounts for 13% of searches, 9% of paid clicks and 4% of search spend, and in the U.S. Google's paid click volume should exceed expectations due to mobile. Firm says the stock is inexpensive at 12x 2012 PF EPS (ex-cash)
  • Thinly traded Taylor Devices (TAYD) surging 40% higher on earthquake news

    Co is engaged in the design, development, manufacture and marketing of shock absorption, rate control, and energy storage devices. Co's products include Seismic Dampers, Fluidicshoks, Crane and Industrial Buffers, Self-Adjusting Shock Absorbers, Liquid Die Springs, and Vibration Dampers.
  • Sutron (STRN) also ticking higher following earthquake and tsunami news

    The co specializes in meteorological and oceanic management of water resources, for early warning of disastrous floods, storms or tsunamis and for the optimization of hydropower plants.
  • AFLAC (AFL) trading 3% lower following earthquake in Japan; Company has exposure in Japan

    Co previously said it is the number one insurance company in Japan in terms of individual policies in force, and Aflac Japan's revenues accounted for 75% of the the company's total revenues in 2010.
  • Feb Retail Sales +1.0% vs. +1.0% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.7% from +0.3%
    Feb Retail Sales ex-auto +0.7% vs. +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.6% from +0.3%

    S&P500 futuur on tänase päeva jooksul esimest korda plussi roninud
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HEV +14.6%, LIME +7.7%, ANN +6.2%, STRI +5.5%, PLL +5.2%, CLNE +4.9%, CMTL +3.2%, ULTA +2.1%.

    M&A news: RCRC +9.0% (RC2 to be acquired by Tomy for $27.90 in cash ).

    Other news: TAYD +41.6% (surging 40% higher on earthquake news, products include Seismic Dampers, Fluidicshoks, Buffers), STRN +11.4% (ticking higher following earthquake and tsunami news; specializes in meteorological and oceanic management ), OPWV +8.5% (ticking higher; Wataniya Telecom selects Openwave Integra, media and web optimizer solutions to manage increasing mobile data demand), VLO +6.4% (Chevron to Sell Pembroke refinery to Valero), ARMH +3.1% (Hearing defended at RBS following yesterday's weakness), HERO +2.9% (still checking), DNDN +1.8% (continued strength following manf facility approval).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ARO -8.4% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Top Pick at RBC), ZUMZ -6.8%, IGOI -6.8% (light volume), JMBA -6.1%, ACAD -4.6%, SWHC -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merriman).

    Select metals/mining stocks under pressure: IVN -4.6%, SLW -4.5%, PAL -4.2%, EXK -3.1%, GPL -2.9%, PAAS -2.7%, FCX -3.1%, AUY -2.6%, SLV -2.5%, SLW -2.4%, PAL -2.4%, AA -1.6%, TCK -1.3%, SVM -1.3%, CDE -1.1%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TGC -9.7%, LEI -7.1%, RAME -4.3%, KOG -3.9%, HK -3.8%, BEXP -3.6%, ROYL -3.4%, ZN -3.2%, SD -2.9%, DPTR -2.5%, GMCR -2.2%, PUDA -1.9%, WFT -1.9%.

    A few Japan ADRs are ticking lower following earthquake: TM -3%, SNE -1.3%, NTT -1%.

    Other news: ENER -25.6% (issues a statement regarding recent events in the European solar market, most notably changes to the solar incentive regime in France and Italy, two of co's key markets), JTX -6.8% (continued weakness), TWO -3.5% (plans to offer 25 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), AN -3.3% (ticking lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), AFL -3.1% (shares -2% in premarket following earthquake in Japan; Company has exposure in Japan), TDSC -1.5% (prices public offering of 2.04 mln shares of common stock at a price to the public of $44.00 per share), BP -1.2% (discloses agreement to acquire majority control of the Brazilian ethanol and sugar producer Companhia Nacional de Acucar e Alcool for ~$680 mln), MGA -1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade).

    Analyst comments: LDK -3.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard Capital), ESLR -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), JASO -2.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard Capital), HANS -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), CSIQ -2% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Lazard Capital).
  • NIC Inc (EGOV) initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James
  • Raymond James on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Ciena Corporation (CIEN) kohta.
    Raymond James tõstab CIEN reitingu „müü“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $32 hinnasihiga.


    Recommendation: We are upgrading Ciena to Strong Buy from Underperform. We view the recent sell-off as a as a buying opportunity as carriers upgrade backbone networks with higher bandwidth optical transport and switching systems. We believe recent concerns (i.e., Finisar) about slowing optical demand will be temporary. A number of carriers are in the early stanges of expanding networks (10G/ 40G systems), and new 100G systems will move to volume deployment in 2012.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et hiljutine müügisurve andis investoritele suurepärase ostukoha, sest nende arvates on paljud edasimüüjad hakkavad oma põhivõrke uuendama ning nõudluse vähenemine on ajutine nähtus. Mitmed edasimüüjad on võrgu laiendamise juures alles algusfaasis, mis lubab eeldada, et nõudluse vähenemist pikemas perspektiivis ei tule.

    Most carriers are turning their attention to core long distance and metro optical networks following the investment in access/wireless backhaul the past few years. Mobile data (Smartphone) has fueled strong traffic growth (>50%/year) and this traffic is now finding its way in core fibre networks that have been under-invested the past five years. We estimate legacy Ciena switching revenues (excluding Nortel) are 50% below levels experienced in late 2007. Management recently indicated the company has four tier-one customer wins for its new 5430 optical switching platform. This platform will upgrade the large installed base Core Director systems to new 40G and 100G OTN switching capacities. Ciena maintains a dominant position in North America (approx. 20% share following acquisition of Nortel’s metro transport business last year).

    Kogu sektor oli suure surve all, kui FNSR alandas oluliselt oma järgmise kvartali prognoose, viidates nõudluse vähenemisele. Ka CIEN aktsia on selle tõttu alla tulnud ning nüüd ütlevad Raymond James analüütikud, et nende arvates on see suurepärane ostukoht ning nõudluse vähenemine on ajutine nähtus. Olgu öeldud, et ka Citi analüütikud ütlesid üleeile, et FNSR prognooside alandamisel on äärmiselt limiteeritud mõju CIEN-le ning nende jaoks on ettevõtte endiselt Top Pick. Turg võib olla täna väga volatiilne, seega ettevaatust
    Hetkel kaupleb aktsia eelturul 1,6 % plussspoolel, $24 kandis.


  • tagantjärgi ka USA tarbijasentimendi indeks
    March Michigan Sentiment 68.2 vs. 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 77.5
  • Medifast (MED) continues to tumble (over 15% lower) following news that it needs additional time to complete its year-end financial statements
  • CIEN on täna turu tugevuse taustal täitsa kenasti liikunud. Aktsia avanes $23,90 peal ehk 1,4% plusspoolel ning peale avanemist liikuse kiiresti $24,40 alla. Vahepeal tuli uuesti avanemistaseme juurde tagasi ning nüüdseks on stabiilselt ülepoole liikunud ning kaupleb $24,50 kandis ehk 3,6% plusspoolel.

  • Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI) trading 5% higher following pickup in volume intraday; Hearing attributed to potential BARDA contract win
  • Following another earth quake, of 6.6 magnitude, hitting Chiba, a brand new tsunami warning has been issued

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