LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 14. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Jaapani aktsiaturud sooritasid pärast nädalavahetuse arenguid ning teadmatust tagajärgede suurusjärgust riigi majandusele kahe aasta suurima kukkumise, kui Nikkei 225 langes -6,18% ja Topix -7,49%. Jaapani keskpank on otsustanud finantsturgudel stabiilsuse tagamiseks pumbata rahaturule 183 miljardit dollarit (15 triljonit jeeni) ning suurendas valitsuse võlakirjade ja ETF-ide ostu programmi 10 triljoni jeeni võrra, mis on aidanud nõrgestada jeeni USA dollari vastu, kuid seda siiski suhteliselt marginaalselt (USDJPY +0,27% @ 82,07)


    Kui mujal Aasias kauplesid indeksid siiski suuresti positiivsel territooriumil, siis USA futuurid on hetkel vajunud 0,5-0,7% punasesse ning madalamal on alustamas ka Euroopa.

    Olulisi makrouudiseid täna oodata ei ole, kui tähelepanu koondub sündmuste arengule Jaapanis ning eeskätt just sellele, kas kahjustada saanud tuumajaamades suudetakse suuremat katastroofi ära hoida.
  • NB! Kuna USA-s mindi eile üle suveajale siis järgmised kaks nädalad on sealsetel börsidel regulaarne kauplemisaeg nihkunud meie aja järgi 15.30-22.00 peale.
  • Palun selgitust sellele: 15,30-22,00?
  • Kuna USA-s keerati pühapäeval kella tunni võrra ettepoole ning Eesti läheb suveajale üle märtsi viimasel pühapäeval siis sellest tingituna nihkub USA regulaarne kauplemisaeg Euroopa investori jaoks tunni võrra varasemaks.
  • Buffetti iching trigger fringer....Lubrizol to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) for $135 in cash (105.44)

    The transaction, which was unanimously approved by the board of directors of each co , is valued at ~$9.7 bln, including ~$0.7 bln in net debt, making it one of the largest acquisitions in Berkshire Hathaway history.
  • USA väikeinvestorid muutusid möödunud nädalal ebakindlamaks aktsiaturgude järgneva kuue kuu väljavaate osas. Enim kasvas nende osakaal, kes omavad neturaalset vaadet (+1,7 pp @ 31% ehk kõrgeim alates 2010. augustist), Samal ajal aga kahanes optimistliku väljavaatega investorite osakaal 0,8 protsendipunkti võrra 36%-ni, mis on madalaim alates 2010. aasta septembrist (ajalooline keskmine 39%) ning täpselt samas ulatuses suurenes pessimistide osakaal (32,3% peale, ajalooline keskmine 30%). Kokkuvõttes omavad suurimat osakaalu jätkuvalt veel pullid, kuid toorainete kiirest hinnatõusust tulenev oht etteõvõtete marginaalidele muudab optimistid oma nägemuses järjest kõhklevamaks.

  • Nagu elus ikka on ühe õnnetus teise õnn ja sama ütlust võib täna kasutada solari sektori kohta. Peale paar nädalat kestnud müügisurvet, mis sai alguse Itaalia valitsuse plaanist vähendada päikeseenergia kasutamist, on täna sektori aktsiad kauplemas rohelisel territooriumil. Põhjuseks on Jaapanis aset leidnud tuumajaama plahvatus, mis on järsult tõstnud Euroopas vastumeelsust tuumajaamade suhtes. Laupäeval kogunes näiteks Saksamaal, Stuttgartis 40 000 inimest, kes protestisid tuumaenergia kasutamise vastu.
    Jefferies analüütikud kirjutavad täna, et tänu sellele on päikesenergia kasutamine kogumas kiiresti poolehoidjaid, sest esiteks on paigaldus kiirem ( tuumajaama ehitus võib aega võtta kuni 10 aastat) ja teiseks muutub uute tuumajaamade ehitamine nüüd oluliselt kallimaks.
    Eelturul YGE +11,40%, FSLR +6,2%, LDK 9,4%, JASO 5,9%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SIHI +11.1%, (light volume), XLNX +2.1% (ticking higher).

    M&A news: LZ +27.1% (to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway for $135 in cash, ~28% premium to Friday's close), AHII +8.4% (Animal Health Intl to merge with privately held Lextron for $4.25 per share, ~11% premium to Friday's close ), KSP (K-Sea Transportation to be acquired by Kirby for $8.15 per share)..

    Select solar related names showing strength (seen as safer alternative to nuclear power in wake of Japan disaster): LDK +6.2%, SOL +6.2%, STP +5.7%, SPWRA +4.9%, JASO +4.6%, WFR +4%, FSLR +3.9%, TAN +3.8%.

    A few LZ related names ticking higher:
    NEU +2.2%, ASH +2.1%, WLK +1.0%

    Other news: CAGC +20.6% (forms special committee to to investigate certain allegations made by third parties with respect to the co and certain related issues; will not meet its 10-K filing deadline), CIGX +18.6% (continued momentum), NBG +11.1% (European bank stocks strong following EU agreement on new bailout terms ), APWR +10.6% (wins $30.5 mln contract to build biomass power plant in China), PWER +7.6% (as commenced shipping inverter products from its Shenzhen, China manufacturing and design facility), MI +1.9% (issues response to letter from Wisconsin Union Group threatening to boycott M&I ), WLK +1.9% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: JDSU +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), LULU +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity).
  • Täna on Citi analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega JDS Uniphase (JDSU) kohta.
    Citi tõstab JDSU reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $27 hinnasihiga.


    Despite FNSR-induced panic, overall constructive checks support our bullish 2011 optical view. Supply chain has had rolling corrections & FNSR is latest victim. Carrier need for greater capacity, simpler & more agile networks, & lower op ex clearly evident and should drive increase in 2011. Upgrade JDSU to Buy — Following FNSR-induced pullback, we upgrade JDSU back to Buy/High risk w/$27 target. We believe JDSU will benefit from its diversified business model & lack of customer concentration. JDSU has declined 20.5% post-Analyst Day (vs -3.4% S&P 500), while we believe therehas been little substantive change in fundamentals.

    Analüütikute sõnul on vaatamata FNSR paanikat külvanud kehvale prognoosile sektor endiselt atraktiivne ning usuvad, et JDSU võidab sellest olukorrast tänu mitmekesisele ärimudelile ja kliendibaasi hajususele. Aktsia on küll 20,5% kukkunud, aga analüütikute arvates pole fundamentaalsetes näitajates olulisi muutusi aset leidnud.

    FNSR's Issues Company Specific & Transitory — Though FNSR guide-down jarring, we think the issues are company-specific due to an overall concentrated customer base (top 3 = 42%) and an even somewhat more concentrated ROADM customer base. Shares increasingly interesting at current levels, but we need higher conviction to get more constructive.

    Analüütikute sõnul on FNSR –i probleem puhtalt ettevõtte põhine- peamiselt tänu sellele, et firma sõltub liigselt väikesest arvust klientidest.

    Möödunud reedel oli Raymond James positiivne CIEN suhtes, mis kuulub JDSU samasse sektorisse. Ka nemad viitasid pigem sellele, et FNSR probleemid on ettevõtte põhised ning nõudluse vähenemine sektoris ajutine nähtus. CIEN liikus reedel üsna hästi, aga arvestada tuleks sellega, et turg tol päeval samuti positiivne. Täna JDSU puhul ootaks ära avanemise, sest tegemist pole ülemäära tugeva calliga ning aktsia liikumine on turu armul.


  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TNDM -10.2%.

    Select uranium related names showing weakness: UEC -20.6%, DNN -19.1%, URRE -18.1%, URG -16.7%, CCJ -12%, .

    Select rare earth stocks trading lower: SHZ -7.3%, MCP -1.8%.

    Select Japan related names under continued pressure: HIT -14.3% (discloses buildings and production facilities have suffered damages, mainly at production bases in Ibaraki prefecture), SNE -8.3% (discloses operations affected by Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, tsunami and related power outages ), PC -7.9%, TM -6.4%, CAJ -6.3%, MFG -5.9%, HMC -5.9%, MTU -5.9%, .

    Other news: SHAW -10.4% (co issued statement saying that at this time, does not believe there will be an impact on Shaw's nuclear projects currently under construction in the United States and China), CBPO -6% (still checking), AFL -4.1% (Aflac Japan corporate offices fully operational; Expected Impact on Japan Sales Minimal; Co affirms 2011 operating EPS Target; at the low end of 8-12% operating earnings growth for 2011), GE -2.3% (releases annual report), MDT -1.8% (Cramer makes cautious comments on MadMoney), PODD -1% (files for $150 mln mixed shelf offering ), BAC -0.6% (under pressure following reports that an anonymous group is planning to release company emails).

    Analyst comments: TOL -2.3% (light volume, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), LVS -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), OPEN -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merriman).
  • Veel solarite jutu jätkuks. PiperJaffray analüütikud näevad olukorda hoopis teistes värvides kui Jefferies ja arvavad, et sündmused Jaapanis on sektorile negatiivse mõjuga. Nende sõnul on maavärina tõttu lähitulevikus häiritud nii varustamine kui ka nõudlus ja sellest tulenevalt alandavad CSIQ ja STP reitingu "hoia" pealt "müü" peale, SPWRA,JASO,TSL,YGE "osta" pealt "hoia" peale ning kinnitavad oma "osta" soovitust FSLR ja SATC-le tulenevalt seotusele USA turuga.
  • Under Pressure
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/14/2011 9:01 AM EDT

    "We learn geology the morning after the earthquake."

    --Ralph Waldo Emerson

    After the initial news of the earthquake in Japan, markets held up fairly well on the Friday after, but they are down big this morning as the scope of the disaster is now being realized. The Nikkei was down over 6% overnight, while losses in other markets are relatively minor so far.

    The biggest market impact is coming in the energy sector as nuclear-related stocks are selling off sharply, while alternative energy, particular solar, is attracting buyers, even though Piper has downgraded a number of stocks in the sector. There is concern that demand for oil will drop as Japan focuses on rebuilding, and that is putting some pressure on crude this morning.

    The market has been struggling for a couple weeks now, so we shouldn't be totally surprised by this poor action if we heeded what the charts have been telling us. As I discussed on Friday, the action had the feel of an oversold bounce and couldn't be trusted very much. Even though the buying was tame, the dip-buyers were still ready to give it a try since we were a bit technically extended to the downside. We were able to recapture key technical support at the 50-day simple moving average at around 1301, but that is being breached again in the early going.

    Monday morning weakness of this type is likely to attract some early dip-buyers, but what we have to watch for is how aggressively strength is sold. The dip-buyers at this stage are likely to be more inclined to be flippers, who will quickly claim their profits. And there are likely to be some stuck bulls who are looking to escape positions, especially if they can cut their losses on a bounce.

    We should have some opportunities as sector rotation plays out but keep in mind that the technical picture has deteriorated quite a bit and we need to be very skeptical about the health of bounces. Overall, the indices are only down a minor amount since this correction began, so there still is plenty of downside potential, especially if we lose those dip-buyers who have been so persistent for so long.

    I'm looking for an early bounce, but I'll be watching for a retest of the opening lows to occur. The key technical level to the downside right now is around 1292, which was Friday's lows. If we can hold that, then we have the chance to consolidate and eventually turn up, but there is plenty of overhead resistance to contend with, especially around 1306 to 1310.

    The most important thing you can do right now is respect the fact that we are under technical pressure and in danger of falling into downtrend. Don't start thinking about bottoms and lasting lows at this point. Be opportunistic, and make sure you keep a very close watch on long positions. If they break down, don't hesitate to take the losses. You can always rebuy when conditions improve.
  • The Fed purchased $7.56 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $24.58 bln
  • Wall Street Journal toob välja, et USA ettevõtete raha ja teiste likviidsete vahendite maht kasvas Fedi andmetel 2010. aasta lõpuks $1.9 triljonile. See moodustab 7% ettevõtete varadest, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 1963. aastast. (link)
  • Landauer (LDR) is nearly +10% today making new multimonth highs; name being picked up as potential radiation detection play

    Tegemist ebalikviidse alusvaraga.
  • Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et Pfizer ja Johnson&Johnsoni ühised pingutused leida ravim Alzheimer tõvele annavad juba tagasihoidlikke kuid lootusrikkaid tulemusi.
    Arenduses oleva ravimi nimi on Bapineuzumab ja selle eesmärgiks on rünnata beeta-amüloid valku, mis põhjustab ohtlikke moodustisi Alzheimeri põdevate patsientide ajus. Eelmisel aastal läbi viidud katsed näitasid, et Bapineuzumab suutis 28 patsiendi ajus beeta-amüloid moodustisi kahandada 25% võrra. Samas on mitmed hiljutised uurimused hiirte ja rottidega näidanud, et märksa väiksemad beeta-amüloid osad, mis on leitud tserebrospinaalvedelikust (selge vedelik, mis ümbritseb aju ja seljaaju) on hoopis tõelised kurjajuured.Järgnevad uuringud näitasid, et ravim mitte ainult ei kahanda beeta-amüloid moodustisi vaid suudab ka neutraliseerida valkude võimet kahjustada ajurakke.
    Alzheimeri tõbi on on aeglaselt süvenev, nõdrameelsust põhjustav närvisüsteemi haigus.
  • Päeva edenedes on turule korralik müügipress peale pandud, millest pole puutumata jäänud ka JDSU. Samas avanemisel töötas call siiski ootuspäraselt. Aktsia avanes $21,70 pealt ning liikus kiirelt $22,10 peale. Seejärel müüdi aktsia korra uuesti alla eelturu tasemele ning peale seda tegi aktsia uued päevatipud, käies ära ka $22,25 peal. Hetkel on JDSU koos turuga alla tulnud, kui kaupleb siiski 1,4% plusspoolel, $21,60 kandis.

  • Japan nuclear disaster risk seen receding fast, according to Reuters report
  • NYSE Euronext: CNBC's Faber says bid from Nasdaq could come as early as tomorrow
  • ... unclear whether or not such a bid will come together. Funny :)

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