LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 23. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • JPMorgani kommentaar, et Portugali valitsus võib uue kärpekava hääletamise pärast laiali minna ning spekulatsioonid, et Iiri valitsus jättis maksmata AIB emiteeritud võlakirja intressimakse, on toonud Euroopa võlakriisi taas fookusesse ning tõstnud perifeeriariikide riskipreemiaid. Kuigi võlakirjaturud on Portugali puhul finantsabi palumisega juba arvestamas, siis tänane hääletamistulemus võib sellegipoolest turgudel volatiilsust lisada.
    Portugali 10a võlakirja tulusus

    Makrouudiste poole pealt võiks suuremat huvi pakkuda Inglise keskpanga möödunud kohtumise protokolli avaldamine kell 11.30 mõistmaks, kuidas võiks keskpank tõlgendada eilset inflatsiooni kiirenemist. Kell 12.00 teatatakse eurotsooni jaanuarikuu tööstussektori tellimuste muutus ja kell 16.00 möödunud kuu uute majade müük USAs.
  • Mõni minut tagasi avati ligi kaks kuud kinni olnud Egitpuse börs, ent pärast 10%list kukkumist tuli kauplemine taas hetkeks peatada.
  • Naelsterling on enne BOE protokollide avaldamist surve all, kaubeldes 0,3% madalamal $1,6313 tasemel. Põhjuseks võib olla protokollide lekkimine, mis on hetkel kinnitamata kuulujutu tasemel.
  • Eelmisel kohtumisel jäi hoiak intressimäärade tõstmise osas suhteliselt vaoshoituks ja GBPUSD kukkus avaldamise järgselt allapoole $1,63 taset. Hääled jagunesid vastavalt 6-3 praeguse monetaarpoliitilise kursi jätkamise kasuks.
  • Iirimaa 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus kerkis esimest korda alates euro tulekust 10% peale:

  • Globaalne autotööstus on olnud Jaapani katastroofi tagajärgede suhtes üks tundlikumaid, kuna peamist määramatust tekitavad üleriigilised voolukatkestused, mis takistavad paljude varustajate tööd ja seetõttu on häiritud autotootjate pakkumisahelad.
    Kuigi määramatus on autotööstuses jätkuvalt kõrge ning nii mõnegi nime puhul pole välistatud kasumihoiatused järgnevateks kvartaliteks, siis Bernstein usub, et BMW aktsia on pärast viimaste kuude langust muutunud odavaks ning analüüsimaja tõstab oma soovituse varasema "market perform" pealt "outperform" peale. Hinnasiht kergitatakse 65 eurolt 70 eurole.
    "We calculate that the stock is discounting margins of just 5% to perpetuity despite delivering near 10% margins," said analysts in a note to investors. "Its phenomenal cashflow in 2010, if sustained, would support a value far in excess of €100 per share." Bernstein gave four main reasons for the upgrade: Less dependence on the Chinese market; strong sales growth, massive cashflow and low earnings valuation; and management alignment with shareholders.
  • MBA kinnisvaralaenude taotlused tõusid eelmisel nädalal 2,7%, olles üleeelmisel nädalal langenud 0,7%.
  • UBS analüütikud on täna positiivse reitingumuutusega väljas AOL inc. (AOL) kohta.
    UBS tõstab AOL reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $25 hinnasihiga.


    We believe upside from traffic stabilization and increased monetization outweighs downside at these levels. Though we expect continued declines in the subscription business, we believe AOL’s strategy around premium content and high quality ads should benefit domestic display growth in 2H11. We expect signs of a turnaround in 1H11 numbers. We are also tweaking our model for the HuffPo acquisition.

    Analüütikud arvavad, et riski/kasumi suhe on antud hinnataseme juurest AOL aktsia puhul muutunud soodsaks ning vaatamata tõenäoliselt jätkuvale uute liitujate vähenemisele usuvad nad, et firma strateegia kõrgema kategooria reklaami puhul peaks kodumaisel turul ettevõtet soosima. Analüütikud prognoosivad, et pööret positiivsuse poole peaks nägema ka numbrites käesoleva aasta esimeseks pooleks.

    Compelling valuation: Subscription dial-up biz alone worth $14/share We believe AOL is attractively valued (3-4x our EBITDA ests); this view is supported by our sum of the parts valuation. Using a DCF (see p. 15), we value the legacy subscription dial-up business at roughly $14 per share. Adding back ~$4 per share of net cash yields a total of $18 per share effectively assigning very litte value to the advertising business.

    Lisaks eelnevale on analüütikute arvates AOL aktsia ka atraktiivne valuatsiooni poolest. Nende arvutuste põhjal on ainuüksi juba dial-up internetiühenduse segment väärt $14 aktsia kohta, kui sinna lisada veel $4 vaba raha, mis firmal on, siis kokku $18 aktsia kohta jätab väga vähe väärtust reklaamiärile.

    AOL pole ilmselt päris pikka aega investorite radaril enam figureerinud, kuna firma on jäänud võrreldes konkurentidega arengus maha ning seetõttu on AOL –i puhul ka ootused üsna olematuks muutunud. Täna ütleb, et UBS, et ettevõtte olukord polegi nii lootusetu ning prognoosib juba aasta keskpaigaks positiivseid muutusi. Usun, et UBS upgrade toob AOL –i täna turuosaliste radarile jälle tagasi, kuid tuleks arvestada, et AOL pole kõige parem liikuja.

    Eelturul kaupleb AOL $19,45 kandis, 2,5% plusspoolel.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TIV +10.7%, JBL +9.6% (also reports update related to Japan operations; may have an impact on the supply of components), CTAS +5.7% (also upgraded to Gradually Accumulate from Hold at Soleil), GIII +4.4%, MILL +2.5%, DFS +2.7%, GRS +2.6%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BBL +2%, SLW +1.9%, BHP +1.8%, RIO +1.6%, SLV +0.6%, GLD +0.5%, .

    A few oil/gas related names showing strength: ROYL +4%, ATPG +1.7%, MPET +1.6%, HERO +1.2%.

    Other news: MOTR +6.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CDII +5.8% (China Vesting upgrades China Direct Industries to the China Dragon Undervalued Index), MOBI +5.5% (Sky-mobi entered into an advertising contract with Sohu), POZN +5.4% (announces licensing deal with Cilag GmbH, a division of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), for MT 400, migraine treatment), FSCI +3.9% (retains financial advisor to explore alternatives for maximizing the value of Fisher Plaza), AOL +2.7% (reports out overnight that the co is planning to consolidate websites), ARMH +1.8% (reports out overnight that the co is working with Microsoft on processor architectures), ASML +1% (still checking), SPWRA +0.9% (ticking higher, Sunpower and Hawaiian Electric sign solar power agreement).

    Analyst comments: PHM +4.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), CSX +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), BG +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ALV +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup).
  • UK rahandusministeeriumi prognooside kohaselt peaks riigi majandus tänavu kasvama 1,7%, mis on 0,4 protsendipunkti võrra madalam võrreldes varasema nägemusega. 2012. aasta kasvuprognoos toodi 2,6% pealt 2,5% peale.
  • Naelsterling on SKT langetusest saamas müügisurvet juurde, kaubeldes hetkel päeva põhjas $1,6233 tasemel ehk 0,78% miinuspoolel.
  • CREE kärbib oma kolmanda kvartali prognoose ja aktsia eelturul juba 8% miinuses ( $45,10).
    VECO -4,7%, RBCN -3,8%

    CREE Cuts Q3 Rev guidance to $215-220M v $255Me (guided $245M-265M on Jan 18th)
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CREE -7.8%, DGW -4% (also included third party review update), GIS -1.7%, ADBE -0.8%.

    M&A news: BKS -2.7% (ticking modestly lower following reports that the co may not find buyer).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -2.3%, DB -1.6%, HBC -1.1%.

    A few CREE peers are under under pressure: RBCN -5.9%, LEDS -4.8%, VECO -3.9%, AIXG -3.6%

    Other news: XOMA -38.2% (announced that its Phase 2b trial of XOMA 052 in Type 2 diabetes patients did not achieve the primary endpoint of reduction in glycosylated hemoglobin), PRAN -20.1% (to sell securities to institutional investors in a private placement for aggregate gross proceeds of ~$6,190,992), NCT -5.4% (plans to make a public offering of 15 mln shares of its common stock), BAC -1.7% (discloses comprehensive capital plan sent to the Federal Reserve; Fed objected to proposed increase in capital distributions for the 2H11), TM -1.3% (under pressure following reports co will delay the Japan launch of the Prius wagon and minivan), BIN -1.2% (announces commencement of public secondary offering of common shares by TC Carting III, L.L.C.), YPF -1.1% (weakness attributed to pricing of offering), GNW -0.9% (prices $400 mln debt offering).

    Analyst comments: CAG -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Davenport).
  • Nelli,
    Saan aru , et teed ise ka kaasa oma postitatud soovitusi?
    Milline % portfellist läheb ühte positsiooni Sinul?
  • The Bounce Hangs in the Balance
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/23/2011 9:02 AM EDT

    I trust everyone. I just don't trust the devil inside them.

    --Troy Kennedy-Martin

    The big question this morning is whether or not we can trust this market to bounce further. Although the S&P 500 has gapped up to start each of the last four days, and we are well off the recent lows, the overall action has lacked vigor. We were oversold and due for some sort of bounce, and that is what we've had, but the danger that it is going to fizzle as we confront obvious overhead resistance at the 1300-1304 level of the S&P 500 is quite high.

    Market players have been conditioned by nearly two years of V-shaped bounces to believe that once we start to recover we will just keep going. That worked quite well and quite often, but the nature of the recent action has a different feel. We don't have aggressive dip buying or chasing of strength and there is little leadership. We have lost some key technology stocks as leaders and the big-cap-momentum names that attracted hot money for so long are struggling.

    We have a number of negatives at work right now that are making it difficult for the market to keep this recovery going. Foremost is crude oil near $105 a barrel and no real clarity about what is going to happen in Libya. The Japanese crisis has calmed, but now the hard work of recovery begins and there still is plenty of fallout, nuclear and otherwise.

    Probably the biggest headwind we face is increased worry about inflation at home. There is no denying that food and energy prices have gone up substantially, and even though core inflation is still very low, there is no doubt that inflation worries are growing, especially since housing and unemployment remain such stubborn problems.

    The important thing right now is that we stay very aware of the possibility that we have another failed bounce attempt taking place. Since the top about a month ago we have had two or three bounce attempts that have failed. The most recent breakdown and bounce have been of much greater magnitude, and the character of the action has shifted.

    We need to make sure the bulls prove themselves before we become more aggressive at building long positions. We are still in a downtrend and are clearly struggling with overhead resistance. It is not the time to have blind faith in the ability of the market to recover.

    What has bothered me more than anything about the market action is the lack of momentum. Many stocks have bounced, but they have done so on light volume and in an unconvincing manner. We aren't seeing any new leaders emerge, and the hot-money traders are focused on small niches like rare earth and small-cap oils.

    The bottom line is that the character of the market is not very bullish and we have to respect that. Although the action has been quite dead there are trades to be had, but we need to be selective and manage them tightly.

    We'll see if the dip buyers do much on this early weakness, but we definitely need to proceed with caution. The chances of another failed bounce are high.
  • to krookus: võimaluse korral ikka püüan teha, aga konkreetselt protsentuaalset osakaalu ei jälgi, positsiooni suurus sõltub pigem sellest, millise aktsia/calliga tegemist on. Aga pean ütlema, et nö all in tehinguid pole kunagi teinud.
  • February New Home Sales 250K vs 288K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 301K from 284K
  • Portugal's Paliament may delay vote on budget, according to local press - CNBC
  • Pier 1 Imports (PIR) pops ~$0.20 following takeover rumors
  • The Fed purchased $7.56 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $30.77 bln
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) trades to highs of the day as renewed takeover chatter circulates
  • AOL on täna teinud väga ilusa liikumise. Aktsia avanes $19,51 peal ning tuli siis koos turuga natuke alla $19,20 kanti ning on sealt alates järjekindlalt ülespoole liikunud. Hetkel kaupleb AOL $20 kandis ehk 5,4% plusspoolel.

  • Caterpillar (CAT) reaffirms 2011 outlook of EPS 'near $6' and revenues 'greater than $50 bln'; guides 2012 revenues for $55-60 bln, consensus $59.4 bln, EPS $8-10, consensus $7.98
  • Headlines crossing wires suggesting Portugal Parliament rejected government austerity measures
  • * Portugal's parliament rejects government's deficit-cutting plan.

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