Börsipäev 31. märts
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Tänast makrokalendrit vaadates saab Euroopas olema esikohal Iirimaa pankade stressitesti avalikustamine, mille puhul jälgitakse kui palju läheb EL/IMF-i reserveeritud 35 miljardist eurost finantsasutuste rekapitaliseerimiseks vaja. Testi tulemused peaksid avalikkuseni jõudma vahetult pärast Euroopa börside sulgumist.
Enne seda aga avalikustatakse Saksamaal veebruari jaemüügi muutus (kl 09.00) ja märtsi tööpuuduse näitaja (kl 10.55). Kell raporteeritakse eurotsooni märtsikuu inflatsiooninäit ning seejärel liigub tähelepanu juba USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste numbrile, kui konsensus ootab tõusu 1000 võrra 383K peale võrreldes eelneva nädalaga. Kestvate töötuabiraha taotluste numbriks oodatakse 3700K vs 3721K eelneval nädalal. Kell 16.45 tuleb veel Chicago PMI ja kell 17.00 veebruarikuu tehaste tellimused.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nulli lähedal, Euroopa tõotab avaneda kerges plussis. -
Saksamaa veebruarikuu jaemüük vähenes jaanuariga võrreldes -0,3% vs oodatud +0,4%. Ühtlasi revideeriti jaanuari näitaja madalamale, 1,4% pealt 0,4% peale.
EUR/USD erilist reaktsiooni selle peale ei näidanud, kaubeldes 1,4156 dollaril (+0,21%) -
Dendreon Corp Provenge prostate cancer drug granted preliminary coverage under Medicare - US financial press
- CMS draft decision says the drug is reasonable and necessary for the FDA approved use. Final decision to be announced by June 30.
Eile peale turu sulgumist teatati, et tõenäoliselt hakkab USA riiklik ravikindlustus (CMS) DNDN ravimit Provenget ikkagi katma, kuid ametlik otsus tuleb 30. juunil. -
Moody's teatas täna, et ei saa välistada edasisi euroala reitingu langetamisi. Eurot see aga ei kõiguta ja kaubeldakse hetkel päeva selle nädala tippudes $1,4174 tasemel.
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Iirimaa peatas täna seoses stressitestide avaldamisega kauplemise Bank of Ireland ja Allied Irish Banks aktsiatega.
In a joint statement the Irish Stock Exchange and the Central Bank of Ireland say the 24-hour withdrawal of trading in both banks is necessary to prevent what it calls “a disorderly market” driven by potentially inaccurate rumors.
The move follows Wednesday’s suspension of trade in Ireland’s other publicly traded bank, Irish Life & Permanent. The shares of all three banks are expected to resume trade Friday on Irish and British exchanges. -
Portugali 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus tõusis üle 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe esimest korda alates 2006. aastast.
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Tänane Reuters kirjutab, et Hiina valitsus üritab jätkuvalt Google (GOOG)-le kaikaid kodarasse visata. Nimelt on teatatud kolmest GOOG-ga seotud ettevõttest, mis väidetavalt on rikkunud maksureegleid.
Google ise kinnitas Reutersile, et firma on alati ja on ka edaspidi Hiina maksuseadusi täitnud.
Ei ole selge, kas antud firmad on Google`ga otseselt seotud, kuid Hiina valitsus on ilmselgelt firma taas teravama vaatlusse alla võtnud.
Artikkel loetav siin. -
Saksamaa töötute hulk vähenes märtsis oodatud 25 tuhande asemel 55 tuhande inimese võrra. Töötusmäär langes 7,1% peale vs oodatud 7,2% (veebruaris oli 7,3%). EURUSD +0,41% ja kaupleb 1,4185 juures.
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Eurotsooni inflatsioon märtsis 2,6% vs oodatud 2,4%. EUR jätkab tugevnemist dollari suhtes, hetkel +0,6% @ 1,4217
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Eile IMF, täna Fitch
Fitch revises US 2011 GDP to +3.0% from +3.2%; 2012 revised down to +2.8% vs 3.3%; revises global economic forecasts down due to higher oil price -
Portugali ja Saksamaa 10-aastaste võlakirjade tulususe erinevus on teinud euroala rekordi 480 baaspunkti juures:
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Austraalia dollar tegi täna juba uue kõikide aegade tipu $1,0360 tasemel.
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Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Tesla Motors (TSLA) kohta.
Morgan Stanley tõstab TSLA reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $70 hinnasihiga.
xEV market entering higher volume and it’s happening right now: We are convinced electric cars will comprise a significant minority of global light vehicle sales medium-term and the majority longer term. Our global xEV model suggests penetration of 5.5% globally by 2020 and >15% by 2025. Even on our forecasts, the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) remains by far the dominant form of propulsion for a very long time.
Analüütikud põhjendavad oma „osta“ soovitust trendimuutusega elektriautode turul, mis on jõuliselt ülespoole murdmas ning nende sõnul juhtub see just praegu. Analüütikute prognooside kohaselt kasvab elektriautode osakaal 2020. aastaks 5,5% ja 2025. aastaks 15%.
Tesla moves from rich man’s toy to mass market: We believe Tesla’s long-term independence can only be secured through the commercialization of mass market EVs in the $30k price range. Premium offerings like the Model S and its derivatives are important stepping stones to the company’s full volume potential of 500k units by 2025. We see a path to a company with $9.5bn of sales, >$1.2bn of operating profit and >$1.0bn of FCF by 2020, based on Tesla capturing 3.6% of the lobal xEV market by that time. The risks of lagging EV adoption, launch delays and balance sheet difficulties make Tesla a highly speculative investment.
Analüütikud ütlevad, et TSLA auto on muutumas rikka mehe mänguasjast masstooteks. Analüütikud usuvad, et TSLA pikaajalise iseseisvuse saab tagada ainult massturule suunatud autod ca $30 tuhande hinnaga. Samas hoiatavad analüütikud, et elektriautode oodatust leigem vastuvõtt, takistused ja hilinemised autode turule toomisel teevad TSLA-st äärmiselt riskantse investeering.
$70 PT offers almost 200% upside, on revenue est. roughly 3x consensus in the out years. On our forecasts, Tesla’s biggest financial challenge comes in 2013 when gross liquidity falls to $146mm. As is not uncommon with start-ups, the biggest question is if Tesla can remain solvent long enough to capitalize on the forthcoming technological break-throughs.
Ühtlasi ütlevad analüütikud, et TSLA puhul on suurimaks küsimärgiks, kas firma suudab säilitada oma maksejõulisust piisavalt kauaks.
Morgan Stanley $70 hinnasiht on kahtlemata aukartustäratav ning konsensuse ootustest peajagu üle. Kuid nii nagu nad isegi ütlevad, panustavad nad oma prognoosides peamiselt elektriautode turu jõulisele kasvule, mida hetkel soosib ka kõrge naftahind ja kõikvõimalikud tagasilöögid selles osas mõjutavad TSLA käekäiku olulisel määral, kuna firmal pole veel vajalikku finantspuhvrit. Kauplemise seisukohast on täna raske ennustada, millise hinnatasemeni aktsia välja ostetakse, sest juba eelturul kaupleb TSLA juba 14% plusspoolel ($27,00). Kui ei midagi enamat, siis vaatemängu pakub tänane call kindlasti. -
Initial Jobless Claims 388K vs 383K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 394K from 382K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.714 mln from 3.765 mln
indeksite futuurid püsivad nulli lähedal -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DIET +14.6%, KGJI +14.5%, AMCF +10.0%, DRYS +2.8%.
M&A news: HBCP +6.1% and GSLA (GS Financial reports that Home Bancorp announces acquisition of GSLA for $21.00),
CPBK and PSTB (Community Capital to be acquired by Park Sterling Corporation for ~$32.4 mln; shareholders will have the right to receive either $3.30 in cash or 0.6667 PSTB shares for each CPBK share they hold).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: GOLD +4%, SLW +1.6%, BHP +1.3%, AU +1.1%, EGO +1%, SLV +0.9%, GLD +0.7%, BBL +0.5%.
Other news: AMIE +35.2% (still checking), SYMX +22.0% (Synthesis Energy Systems receives $83.8 mln investment by China Energy), GBE +18.8% (receives $18 mln financing commitment from Colony Capital), RXII +12% (aggressively moves into late-stage clinical development with the agreement to acquire Apthera for an initial 4.8 mln shares of co's stock), TSLA +11.8% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), MAKO +9.6% (announces multi-system order from Hospital Management Associates), AUO +8% (reports that the company will be supplier for Apple's iPad2), NLST +7.5% (NetList awarded additional patents for HyperCloud memory innovations), DNDN +3.5% (confirms CMS proposed decision memo for PROVENGE), CRNT +2.7% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), DEO +1.6% and SI +1.3% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: TSON +2.5% (initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush), CI +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), UNH +0.6% (upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ES -9.9%, CHGS -6%, GMR -4.6% (also announces proposed public offering of common stock; the co does not list an amount), YUII -2.9%, RBN -1.7%.
Other news: CELM -42.3% (notifies of late filing of 2010 10-K Report; formation of special committee; postponement of earnings release and conference call), ABAT -12.4% (continued weakness following cautious newsletter mention), LSE -5.3% (prices 10 mln shares of common stock at $5.60 per share), LVS -4.1% (reports that Sands China got a request for documents from the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission), APOL -2.4% (disclosure of Higher Learning Commission letter regarding questions about the University of Phoenix's oversight of its recruiting, admissions and financial aid practices), BRK.B -2.3% (resignation of David L. Sokol; had been considered by some to be a possible Buffett successor), NXPI -1.8% (prices 30 mln shares of common stock by certain shareholders at $30.00), MENT -1.5% (ticking lower, affirms its decision to proceed with the $253 million offering of 4.00% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due 2031).
Analyst comments: OPEN -3.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), PPO -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), AET -1.6% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), BMY -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies). -
Euro pisut järgi andmas (+0,37% @ 1,418), kuna arvatakse, et EKP ei plaani Iiri pankade jaoks eraldi restruktureerimistuge pakkuda
Euro is pulling back vs. dollar as headlines cross suggesting the ECB will not announce plans for a liquidity facility to help Irish banks in conjunction with the release of stress test results -
Check Your Logic at the Door
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/31/2011 8:12 AM EDT
"Two extremes: to exclude reason, to admit reason only."
-- Blaise Pascal
After a while, it becomes a bit difficult to express how lopsided the market action has been lately. Despite many good fundamental and technical arguments, we have been bouncing straight up for two weeks now. There have been many good reasons why the market shouldn't continue in this manner, but the market isn't paying any attention to the negatives right now.
If all you have done is tried to apply reason and logic to this market, then you probably are feeling a bit frustrated. There just isn't any easy and obvious causality between fundamentals, news and technicals and the market's reaction. You can't use reason alone when trying to navigate the market beast.
The fact that the market isn't reasonable and logical is what ultimately makes it so potentially lucrative. If the market wasn't an emotional beast, then the richest people in the world would be computer programmers who simply developed the best program. The programmers do make a good effort at doing just that, but it's the market's irrationality that gives human traders an edge. Individuals who understand that the market will often work in a way that doesn't make sense can profit from that understanding by embracing the action, even when there doesn't seem to be a good reason to do so.
So the big question this morning is whether today is the day that the market decides that some of the negatives out there do matter. Many market players have been caught by surprise lately as the oversold bounce turned into overbought momentum. When that happens, it tends to create a supply of underlying buyers who will support the market as they try to catch a dip. There are also some big recent gains to protect, however, and we can dip sharply if some profit-taking gains steam.
We have had some classic window-dressing action over the past couple days, as big investors want to make sure they end the quarter on a positive note with their key holdings as high as possible. That window-dressing pressure typically ends a day early, as the funds don't want to be too blatant about their mark-up activities. That often will lead to some softness on the last day of the quarter as some market players prefer to lock in actual gains into the window-dressing activity.
What can be so frustrating about a straight-up market is that the charts become increasingly useless as more and more stocks become extended. You can still do very well if you chase momentum, but you just aren't going to have the security of having a favorable chart working for you as well. The higher we go without a pause, the greater the risk of a sharp drop. Momentum cuts both ways, and what goes up on powerful momentum will eventual come down that way as well.
We have some very mild action in the early going. Asia was mostly positive and Europe was mostly negative. Weekly unemployment claims are coming up and should help set the early tone. Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. EDT will give us an additional jiggle.
I've been steadily selling into strength and am very lightly invested at this point. I'll keep looking for individual trades and will try not to anticipate a market top, but it sure is not going to be easy to do a whole lot on the long side until we have a bit of a rest. -
U.S. Steel (X) added to short-term sell list at Deutsche Bank
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ühtlasi võtab Deutsche sappa siin mõne teise analüüsimajaga ning toob Morgan Stanley ning Goldman Sachsi esimese kvartali aktsiakasumi prognoose konsensusele lähemale.
Given mixed capital market trends in 1Q (partially due to volatile macro events) & some company specific items, we are reducing our 1Q est for GS from $4.02 to $1.11 ($3.95 ex the preferred redemption, Street at $3.76), & reducing our estimate for MS to $0.50 from $0.68 (Street at $0.52). In terms of the stocks, with the sector underperforming the market QTD, low earnings expectations, a volatile yet improving macro backdrop, increasing reg clarity, & valuations near book, we view the long term risk/reward as attractive & prefer GS in the near term. -
ARM Holdings (ARMH) ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade
ARM Holdings: DigiTimes reports that Google and ARMH plan to establish standardization for Android platforms -
March Chicago PMI 70.6 vs 69.5 Briefing.com consensus; February 71.2
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February Factory Orders -0.1% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
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Irish stress test results are out: Four banks need 24 bln euros of additional capital
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Pankade lõikes jaotub €24 miljardit:
Allied Irish Banks: €13.3bn
Bank of Ireland: €5.2bn
EBS: €1.5bn
Irish Life & Permanent: €4bn -
TSLA pakkus täna riskialtimatele kauplejatele vägagi ilusa liikumise. Aktsia avanes $26,55 pealt ehk 12% ülevalt ning on sealt alates aina kõrgemale liikunud, kaubeldes hetkel juba $28,40 kandis ehk ligi 20% plusspoolel.
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Täna on finantsmaailma tähelepanu all olnud David Sokoli ootamatu lahkumine Berkshire Hathaway`st, kuna just tema oli üks Warren Buffetti võimalikke mantlipärijaid.
Palju poleemikat tekitanud Lubrizoli aktsiate ost ei ole ekspertide arvates mitte niivõrd ebaseaduslik vaid ebaeetiline ning kahjustab märkimisväärselt Berkshire Hathaway mainet.Täna ka CNBC- selgitusi andnud Sokol ütles, et tema ei näe, et ta oleks midagi valesti teinud ning leidis lihtsalt, et tegemist on hea investeeringuga tema perekonna jaoks. Kes antud loo taustaga tuttav pole, siis saab ennast detailidega kurssi viia siin. -
Kocherlakota signals Fed funds rate may need to rise 75 basis points in late 2011 - CNBC, citing WSJ
Note that Kocherlakota is not a voting member. -
Cooper Industries (CBE) sees quick pop as takeover rumor makes the rounds
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Buffetti ja Sokoli teema jätkuks:
Buffett described how Sokol bought about 96,000 Lubrizol (LZ) shares in January, shortly before recommending the company as a takeover target. Berkshire agreed to buy Lubrizol for $9B March 14 and Buffett learned of the timing of Sokol's purchases a few days later. While Buffett believes that what Sokol did was legal, the purchases may have given him a profit of about $3M, Bloomberg calculates.
