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  • USA turud seilasid eile üsna rahulikes vetes, kui S&P 500 ja Dow kaotasid päeva lõpuks ca -0,2% ja Nasdaq jäi 0,15%ga plussoolele. mis enne tänast tööjõuraportit on üsna ootuspärane. Eilsega löödi ühtlasi lukku esimene kvartal ja kuigi MENA sündmused ja Jaapani maavärin ning tuumakriis tõid turgudele kõvasti volatiilsust juurde, siis taastumine neist osutus üsna märkimisväärseks. Dow lõpetas kvartali 6,4% kõrgemal, mis on parim esimese kvartali tulemus viimase 12 aasta jooksul. S&P 500 aga saavutas kolme kuu tõusuks 5,4%. Tõsi, euro 6%-line ralli dollari suhtes nullib need tootlused Euroopa investori jaoks ära.

    Enne USA tööjõuraportit tuleb Euroopas muuhulgas avaldamisele Suurbritannia märtsikuu töötleva tööstuse PMI (kl 11.30) ja eurotsooni märtsi tööpuuduse näitaja (12.00), kuid mõistagi koondub põhiline tähelepanu USA numbritele. Konsensuse arvates võidi märtsis luua 185K uut töökohta väljaspool põllumajandussektorit, sellest 203K erasektoris. Töötusemääraks prognoositakse 8,9% ehk samaks jäämist võrreldes veebruari tasemega. Lisaks tööjõuraportile tuleb kell 17.00 avaldamisele veel märtsi ISM indeks.

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad 0,1% plussis, Euroopa futuurid indikeerivad avanemist 0,2-0,4% kõrgemal.
  • Sarnaselt HSBC koostatavale PMI indeksile, näitas ka Hiina enda ametlik statistika majandusaktiivsuse kasvu märtsis võrreldes veebruariga. Töötleva tööstuse PMI kerkis veebruari 52,2 punktilt 53,4 punktile, jäädes sellegipoolest madalamaks Bloobergi küsitletud analüütikute keskmise ootusega, milleks oli 54 punkti.
  • Turgude sentiment on USA väikeinvestoreid järgneva kuue kuu perspektiivis taas optimistlikumaks muutnud. Selle nädala küsitlus näitas, et bullish sentimenti osakaal kasvas 4,1 protsendipunkti võrra 41,8% peale, mis on taas üle ajaloolise keskmise esimest korda alates 17. veebruarist. Neutraalse nägemusega investorite osakaal jäi sisuliselt muutumatuks ja pessimistide osakaal kahanes 3,9 protsendipunkti võrra 31,1% peale.
  • Šveitsi jaemüük kasvas veebruaris 1,5% (Y/Y), olles jaanuaris vähenenud 2,6%. USDCHF kaupleb 0,22% kõrgemal 0,9209 tasemel.
  • Šveitsi SVME-PMI indeks langes veebruari 63,5 pealt 59,3 punktini vs oodatud 62,5 punkti.
  • Saksamaa PMI tööstusindeks tuli vastavalt ootustele 60,9 punkti, jäädes eelmise kuu näidu suhtes samaks.
  • Ja eurotsooni PMI tööstusindeks tuli 57,5 vs oodatud 57,7 punkti. Veebruari näit oli 57,7.
  • Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse PMI oodatust nõrgem, kui 60,9 punkti asemel tuli näit 57,1
  • Portugali 2012. aasta võlakirjade nõudluse-pakkumise suhe 1,4 vs 2,3 eelmise aasta juulis.
    Kokku müüs Portugal võlakirju €1,645 miljardi väärtuses. Laenamise hinnaks kujunes keskmiselt 5,8%.
  • Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna, et BMW AG kavatseb investeerida miljoneid dollareid erinevatesse nutitelefoni rakendustesse eesmärgiga saada lähemale kliendile, kes ostivad pigem sõiduvahendit, millega on linnas mugav liigelda, aga mitte jõulist ja nö esindusautot, millena BMW autod tuntud on.
    Taoline otsus on osa laiemast strateegiast, kuna ettevõtte sõnul tuleb tuleviku autotööstuse kasv väikeste elektri-ja hübriidautode näol, millega tihedas linnaliikluses on soodne liikuda.
    BMWi Ventures tegevjuht Joerg W. Reimanni sõnul ei karda nad, et antud projekt võiks lõhkuda BMW luksusautode mainet ja on veendunud, et tulevikutrende arvesse võttes on hea võimalus suurendada oma kliendibaasi pakkudes neile inimestele, kes pole kunagi kaalunud BMW auto ostmist, firma uusi linnamudeleid nagu i3 ja i8.
    Ettevõte on juba investeerinud firmasse My City Way, mis pakub liiklusteabe teenuseid mobiiltelefonidele.
  • Nasdaq, IntercontinentalExchange Offer to Buy NYSE Euronext For $42.50/Share, Topping Deutsche Boerse Bid

    NDAQ teeb NYX-le ülevõtupakkumise $42,5 aktsia eest.
  • S&P langetas Iirimaa reitingu BBB+ peale, jättes väljavaated stabiilse peale.
  • March Unemployment Rate 8.8% vs 8.9% Briefing.com consensus
    March Nonfarm Payrolls 216K vs 185K Briefing.com consensus
    March Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs 203K Briefing.com consensus; February revised to 240K from 222K
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CXDC +11.3%, CREG +11.2% (thinly traded), SCEI +8.8%, AERL +8.6% (light volume), SPU +4.3%, EFOI +2.5% (light volume).

    M&A news: NYX +10.7% (NASDAQ OMX Group and IntercontinentalExchange propose superior transaction to acquire NYSE Euronext for $42.50 per share, 19% premium to Deutsche Boerse proposal).

    Select financial related names showing strength: AIB +19.2% (resumed trading yesterday following stress test results), BCS +3.1%, RBS +2.7%, HBC +0.8%, DB +0.8%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: YZC +4.5%, AU +2.6%, GFI +2.5%, HMY +1.2%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP +1.9% (confirms in 6-K that it has signed four new coalbed methane production sharing contracts in the Barito basin of South Kalimantan, Indonesia), STO +1.6% (reports along with partners Eni Norway and Petoro, it has made a significant oil discovery on the Skrugard prospect in the Barents Sea), VLO +1.4%, CHK +1.4%, RIG +1.1%, SD +1%.

    Casino/gaming names getting boost following Macau gaming results: MGM +2.6%, LVS +2.0%, WYNN +1.8%

    Other news: XPRT +78.6% (FTI Consulting has completed all of previously announced contemplated transactions with LECG), ALEX +7.3% (Pershing Square discloses 9.9% stake in SC 13D), EBIX +4.7% (wins end-to-end enterprise contract), ANH +1.1% (declares $0.25/share dividend, prior $0.22/share), NFLX +0.9% (Netflix and Twentieth Century Fox have amended and expanded their non-exclusive digital distribution agreement, adding additional titles).

    Analyst comments: LCC +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), HBAN +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), SLB +0.5% (initiated with a Buy at Madison Williams).
  • Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega FedEx Corporation (FDX) kohta.
    Morgan Stanley tõstab FDX reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $115 hinnasihiga.


    We see several key areas where konsensus may be underestimating FDX earnings power.
    1)Incremental margins at FDX Express. Express faced a number of temporary costs in FY11 related to capacity additions, fleet maintenance, pension re-measurement, and restoration of merit pay. These items will not be a headwind in FY12, and some could even be a tailwind. 2) Margin recovery at FDX Freight. FDX Freight offers a call option. At a minimum, the restructuring at Freight should payoff in FY12. However, this division – which posted a loss in FY11 - once produced $500MM of EBIT. 3) Top line growth could surprise. The rate of deceleration in revenue growth is slowing, and FDX is investing aggressively in int’l. Coupled with a solid outlook for global growth, lower inv/sales ratios, and yield recovery, FDX could produce volume and margin surprises. Improving macro should help US domestic.


    Analüütikud on muutunud FDX suhtes positiivseks, kuna nende arvates konsensus alahindab firma kasumiteenimise võimet. Mu hulgas usuvad analüütikud, et käesoleval aastal ajutiselt suurenenud kulud ei ole enam järgmisel aastal päevakorral ning ettevõtte agressiivne investeerimine globaalsele turule võib koos globaalse kasvuga tuua üllatusi nii käibe kui ka marginaalide osas.

    Kuu aega tagasi alandas FDX käesoleva aasta prognoose, viidates kallinevale kütusele ning rasketele ilmastikuoludele ja seetõttu on aktsia olnud ka kukkunud. Tänane Morgan Stanley call ei too välja küll midagi uut, mistõttu suurt liikumist ei julgeks täna ennustada, aga teatavat huvi võiks siiski leida.

    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia 1,7% plusspoolel, $95,17 kandis.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ATRN -27.6%, CDTI -21.5%, IFON -19.4% (thinly traded, ticking lower), LOGI -19.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), KKD -11.9%, CNAM -10.4%, XRTX -9.5%, EXFO -9.1% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Newcrest), DMAN -8.1% (also downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig Hallum), MED -6.3%, GPN -3.3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard), CBK -3.2%, SKYW -3.1%.

    M&A news: NDAQ -1.4% and ICE -2.2% (NASDAQ OMX Group and IntercontinentalExchange Propose Superior Transaction to Acquire NYSE Euronext for $42.50 Per Share, 19% Premium to Deutsche Boerse Proposal).

    Other news: OMER -38.1% (reports outcome of Phase 3 Trials of OMS103HP; did not meet the pre-specified endpoints of these studies; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), ASTI -16.4% (announces a change in strategy; CEO Farhad Moghadam is stepping down to pursue other interests and opportunities; Ron Eller to be new President and CEO), AVII -15.6% (prices offering of 20 mln shares of its common stock at $1.50 per share), ODP -7.1% (announces restatement of 2010 financial results following denial of tax claim), FUR -6.9% (prices 5 mln shares of common stock of $11.25), ASTI -5.2% (announces a change in strategy that will focus co's lightweight, flexible thin-film solar module technology on applications for emerging and specialty markets), AONE -3.6% (prices 18 mln shares of common stock at $6.00; and $125 mln subordinated notes due 2016), PEB -3.2% (commences a public offering of 8,000,000 common shares of beneficial interest ), USAT -3.2% (registers to sell 9,464,000 shares of common stock for shareholders ), CLNY -1.2% (prices 14 mln shares of common stock at 18.50), NVS -0.8% (still checking for anything specific).

    Analyst comments: NOK -0.8% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura), ALL -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • A New Dawn
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/1/2011 8:25 AM EDT

    You may have a fresh start any moment you choose, for this thing that we call "failure" is not the falling down, but the staying down.
    -- Mary Pickford

    The market is set for a positive start on the first day of the new month and quarter. Such strong upside has been a very strong tendency over the past couple years, and market players are probably helping to make it self-fulfilling.

    Higher oil is once again being shrugged off. That has to be an issue at some point, but for now it is being viewed as an indication of economic strength rather than a potential drag on consumer spending. The market is much more concerned about the yen and the euro, which are weaker this morning. There were some poor earnings reports last night from the likes of EXFO (EXFO) , Krispy Kreme (KKD) and Logitech (LOGI) , but nothing major. The monthly jobs data this morning will set the tone for trading.

    The first day of a new quarter is a good time to reset your thinking, forget your past results and focus on producing superior results going forward. It is a good time to "mark to market." In other words, treat each of your positions as if you bought them today and forgot what your historic basis might be.

    A good exercise is to look at each of your holdings and ask yourself if you would buy them again right now at the current prices. Are you holding the stocks that you really believe have the best prospects for some future gains? If you wouldn't buy this stock again right now, should you consider selling and looking for something better? We often end up holding stocks due to inertia and/or because we are emotionally attached to them. There may not be a good reason to be holding what we are, but we do so because we don't force ourselves to really think about the issue.

    This is a good exercise to do at any time, but it's particularly prudent as we kick off a new quarter. Refresh your thinking and approach things with a new level of objectivity. It is quite refreshing when you don't think about the losses or gains that may already be on the books. You can't change that anyway, so it is good time to start with a clean slate -- even if you are only doing so mentally.

    Overall, the market remains in the same condition it has been in for over a week: We are technically extended and overbought but have some stubborn underlying support. The bears are unable to dig a claw into the market, and we have produced a new crop of potential dip-buyers with the unrelenting rise that has left many underinvested.

    The first day of a new month has a strong positive tendency, although we reversed very hard on the first of March after a positive start, action that was a prelude to a deeper correction over the next couple weeks. The market looks much like it did back on March 1, although we have had a much bigger bounce this time. Volume has been notably poor during this recent rise, which is troubling, but the persistency of the uptrend is nothing short of amazing.

    After we are past the first of the month and while we are in the lull period before first-quarter earnings starts, I'll be looking for the bears to make a push. Conditions will be ripe for at least some consolidation. That action today -- particularly this afternoon -- should give us some insight into whether market players are finally ready to lock in some very nice recent gains or whether dip-buyers stay strong and steady and prevent any meaningful downside.
  • Tänase makro saatel on futuuride turg hindamas detsembrikuu intressimäärade tõstmist pea kaks korda tõenäolisemaks (65%) võrreldes eilsega.
  • Portugali ja Saksamaa 10-aastase võlakirja tulususte erinevus tegi eile euroala rekordi 480 bp juures. Täna on jõutud juba 512 baaspunktini:

  • March ISM Index 61.2 vs 61.4 Briefing.com consensus; February 61.4

    February Construction Spending -1.4% vs -0.7% Briefing.com consensus
  • More headlines crossing wires from Fed's Dudley, quoting him as saying that QE2 has proven to be a good policy, see no reason to pull back from that yet; would be surprised if we didn't finish full QE2
  • FDX oli käitus täna igati ootustele vastavalt. Suurt rallit ei tulnud, aga üks punkt oli täna kindlalt laual. Aktsia avanes $95,00 pealt ning on sealt paari vahepeatusega kenasti üles liikunud, käes ära ka $96,40 peal ning jäänud nüüd kauplema $96,00 kanti, 2,5% plusspoolel.

  • Fitch downgrades Portugal to 'BBB-' from 'A-' , Rating Watch Negative; says severity of downgrade by three notches mainly reflects concern that timely external support is much less likely in near term

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