Börsipäev 4. aprill
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Kui Aasia on USA tööjõuraporti ja M&A uudiste toel jätkamas möödunud nädala tõusu siis USA ja Euroopa indeksite futuurid on näitamas pärast tugevat reedest sessiooni mõningast nõrkust, kaubeldes 0,1% võrra punases.
Selle nädala makrokalender kujuneb võrdlemisi õhukeseks, kui peamises fookuses saavad olema erinevate keskpankade kohtumised (Jaapan, Inglismaa, Austraalia ja Euroopa) ning lisaks FOMC märtsi kohtumise protokolli avalikustamine teisipäeval.
Täna olulisi makrouudiseid oodata pole. -
Arenevate riikide aktsia- ja võlakirjaturud nägid 30. märtsil lõppenud nädalal suurimat kapitali sissevoolu alates aasta esimestest nädalatest. Möödnud nädalal juhtis Mikk tähelepanu Goldman Sachsi raportile, milles analüüsimaja arvas, et pärast mitmeid kuid kestnud underperformance't võiksid arenevad turud arenenud turgudest taas paremat tootlust näidata. Selle taga on tees, et intensiivsem intressimäärade tõstmine arenevates riikides võiks olla juba seljataga ning investorid saavad keskenduda jätkuvalt tugevale kasvu momentumile, samal ajal kui Euroopas ja USA-s seisab agressiivsem rahapoliitika karmistamine alles ees
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Suurbritannia PMI ehitussektori indeks tuli märtsis 56,4 vs oodatud 54,8 punkti (veebuarinäit oli 56,5 punkti). Naelsterling kaupleb hetkel 0,18% kõrgemal 1,6137 juures.
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Eurotsooni veebruari tootjahinnaindeks tuli vastavalt ootustele 0,8% (M/M), kuid jaanuari näit korrigeeriti 20 baaspunkti võrra alla 1,3% peale. EURUSD kaupleb hetkel 0,26% madalamal 1,4195 juures.
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Põnevaid uudiseid: Molycorp Acquires Controlling Stake in AS Silmet, Expands Operations to Europe, Doubles Near-Term Rare Earth Oxide Production Capacity
90% Silmeti osaluse hinnaks 89 mln USD -
Fitch langetas täna hommikul paari Iirimaa panga reitingut ja jättis Iirimaa pankade garanteeritud laenud negatiivse väljavaate peale.
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Gapping up
M&A news: MSSR +19.4% (Tilman Fertitta to commence cash tender offer for company at $9.25/share), LB +9.5% (Ducommun to acquire LaBarge for a purchase price of $19.25 per share in cash), EPIC (agrees to be acquired by Apax Partners for $12.50 per share), TIXC (Baker Street Capital delivers letter to Board of Directors; Discloses a non-binding offer to acquire the company for $2.10/share).
A few casino names ticking higher: LVS +3.1%, MPEL +2.8%, WYNN +2.2%,
Other news: VVUS +15.7% (provides long-term data that demonstrated patients treated with the investigational drug QNEXA for 2 years showed reductions in blood pressure; use of antihypertensive medications as well as improvements in lipid levels following significant reductions in weight loss), AIB +9.3% and IRE +7.9%, CTIC +7.3% (reports journal publishes results of a phase I/II clinical trial; produces high rates of complete remissions and long-term disease free survival in), INHX +6.8% (continued strength), TSEM +6.7% (expects to nearly double production capacity with proposed acquisition of Micron Technology wafer manufacturing plant in Japan), OREX +6.6% (announced additional data that showed that overweight and obese patients treated with Contrave maintained normal 24-hour circadian patterns over one year of treatment), CYCC +5.5% (presents preclinical data demonstrating agents increase sensitivity to CNDAC), MCP +4.6% (still checking), IDRA +3.8% (ticking higher, Idera Pharma presents data from a Phase 1 clinical trial of IMO-2125 in Treatment-Naive Genotype 1 HCV Patients; Phase 2 clinical trial expected to begin in 2Q11), RRR +2.8% and GIII +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CCL +1.3% (early boost following positive mention in financial newspaper), PFE +1.3% (to sell capsugel to KKR for $2.375 billion in cash), BP +1.2% (discloses sale of ARCO Aluminum for $680 million in cash), GE +1% (seeing early strength following positive mention in financial newspaper), VOD +0.9% (Vivendi to acquire Vodafone's 44% stake in SFR).
Analyst comments: ACGL +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), F +1.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RVSN -9.8%.
Other news: AMIE -83.9% (plummeting on announcement of sale through Chapter 11 process), OVTI -6.1% (still checking), LUV -5.3% (responds to loss of pressurization event on flight on Saturday; inspects aircrafts; cancels flights), GD -3.1% (confirmed that a Gulfstream G650 crashed Saturday morning during takeoff performance tests in Roswell, New Mexico), DEPO -2.7% (DepoMed announced the appointment of James A. Schoeneck as President and CEO, effective April 18), LOGI -2.1% (continued weakness).
Analyst comments: SWN -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), NYX -0.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), CSX -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus). -
Turule tundub MCP Silmeti ost väga meelt mööda olevat, sest eelturul kaupleb MCP juba ligi 7% plusspoolel, $63,10 kandis. Olgu meeldetuletuseks öeldud, et JPM on juba mõnda aega olnud firma suhtes väga positiivselt meelestatud ning on andnud aktsiale $74 hinnasihi.
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Tops Are More Difficult Than Bottoms
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/4/2011 8:30 AM EDT
"Predictions of the future are never anything but projections of present automatic processes and procedures, that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do not act and if nothing unexpected happens."
-- Hannah Arendt
One lesson many market players have learned over the past couple of years is that it is much harder to call market tops than it is to call market bottoms. The market always acts irrationally at extremes, but there is a tendency for upside moves to last much longer and go much further than downside moves.
Movement to the downside is usually quicker and more intense. The shakeouts come fast and catch many folks by surprise, but they reach their conclusion fairly fast as market players move to accept and adapt to bad news.
Upside moves have different dynamics at work. When things are positive, it is extrapolated that the conditions will continue indefinitely. It is much more difficult for market players to temper their optimism when there has been a good run, and they may even become more positive the longer a positive trend continues. There is a natural optimism that builds during uptrends that can lead to outrageous expectations.
An easy mistake to make during uptrends is to expect that negative news will matter. The market has an amazing capacity to ignore negative conditions when it is an uptrend. Market players worry more about being left behind when the market is going up than they do about being caught by bad news. Being bearish in an uptrending market is just too uncomfortable for many market players, so they choose to ignore negatives until they are forced to do so.
There is an old saying that bad news doesn't matter until it matters, and that is the situation we find ourselves in now. It is extremely easy to put together a list of negatives right now: high oil prices, unrest in the Middle East, sovereign debt problems in Europe, fallout from the earthquake in Japan, a horrible housing market, nascent signs of inflation and on and on.
If you want to make a bearish argument against this market based on fundamental factors, it is very easy to do. The much more important issue, however, is when these facts will matter. The market seldom agrees with our thinking about timing. It will decide when it is going to focus on some negative factor and, quite often, it will occur with little warning. One day high oil doesn't matter at all and the next it is the justification for a major swoon in prices.
The point is that major technical and fundamental challenges exist, but for the moment, the market doesn't care about all the negatives. They are going to matter at some point, but trying to time when that will be is extremely difficult.
The best way to handle this sort of market is to stay with the existing trend as long as you can but be watchful and be ready to act quickly if sentiment changes. There is no question we are stretched to the upside, but that was true a week ago as well and if you were overly anticipatory you have missed out.
Calling tops is a lot harder than calling bottoms, and generally you will be better off if you err on the side of being late rather than early. Be ready to move as conditions change, but don't forgot that the market can act in a manner that may seem irrational for a very long time.
We have the standard Monday morning gap out there as oil hits a 30-month high. Overseas markets are mostly positive and newswires fairly quiet. -
Sohu.com (SOHU) breaks to new all-time highs out of recent 4-day ascending triangle pattern
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Cree (CREE) trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to takeover chatter
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Bloomberg:
Brasiilia plaanib 2011 CPI (tarbijahinna indeks) hoida ca 4.5% tasemel. Ehk teisisõnu läheb riigis tulevatel kuudel ilmselgelt majanduse "jahutamiseks". Bovespa on kõrgema intressimäära ootuses tõusnud 5 päeva järjest.
Brasiilia CPI y-o-y -
Somaxon Pharma (SOMX) sees quick pop as chatter makes the rounds that select brokers alerted customers that they may need to close out short positions
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Goldman langetas nädalavahetusel taas USA Q1 SKP prognoosi 1 protsendipunkti võrra ehk 2.5%le. Lisaks sellele seati teise poolaasta prognoositav kasv 4.0% samuti kahtluse alla. Analüütikute hinnangul on Fed sunnitud baasintressimäära (fed funds rate) kergitama oluliselt varem, kui seda eelnevalt arvati (näiteks Goldmani lehel seisab endiselt, et intressimäära hakkab keskpank tõstma alles 2013. aastal).
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The Fed purchased $8.03 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $27.92 bln
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Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et McDonald`s (MCD) ja selle frantsiisid kavatsevad aprillikuu jooksul palgata koguni 50 000 uut töötajat. Hetkel on firmal 1,7 miljonit töötajat üle terve maailma.
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Duoyuan Global Water Inc. (DGW) seostatakse pettusskeemiga - Hiina ettevõte on oletatavasti raporteerinud tegelikust ca 100x rohkem tulusid, mistõttu on aktsia täna üle 20% miinuses. Muddy Waters on hommikul avaldanud ka analüüsi, milles on määratud DGW hinnasihiks $1. SEC "rule 201" on käigus ehk aktsiat lühikeseks müüa ei saa.
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Kuidas se SEC-i ''rule 201'' neid mõjutab kes juba on müünud lühikeseks?
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to inter baltic: SEC-i ettekirjutus on ise loetav siin, aga peamine muutus seisneb aktsia lühikeseks müügis siis, kui aktsiahind on juba päevasiseselt 10% kukkunud. Teisisõnu pole võimalik enam seda aktsiat, mis on turupäeva jooksul juba 10% miinuses, enam lühikeseks müüa, aga neid turuosalisi, kes on aktsias juba lühikesed, ei tohiks see reegel enam puudutada.
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Guardian.co.uk veebilehel on huvitav artikkel sellest, kuidas USA pank Wachovia, mis nüüd kuulub Wells Fargole, mängis märkimisväärset rolli suurte Mehhiko narkokartellide rahapesus. Väidetavalt juba 2004. aastal alguse saanud loos aitas pank $378,4 miljardi suuruse summa toimetada Mehhiko valuutavahetuspunktidesse. Süüdistus panga vastu esitati, kuid asi ei jõudnud kunagi kohtusse ning 2010. aastal saavutas pank valitsusega kokkuleppe.
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Täpsustaks üldsuse huvides SEC rule 201-te:
Rule 201 includes the following features:
Short Sale-Related Circuit Breaker: The circuit breaker would be triggered for a security any day in which the price declines by 10 percent or more from the prior day's closing price.
Duration of Price Test Restriction: Once the circuit breaker has been triggered, the alternative uptick rule would apply to short sale orders in that security for the remainder of the day as well as the following day.
Securities Covered by Price Test Restriction: The rule generally applies to all equity securities that are listed on a national securities exchange, whether traded on an exchange or in the over-the-counter market.
Implementation: The rule requires trading centers to establish, maintain, and enforce written policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to prevent the execution or display of a prohibited short sale.
Kui hind on langenud päevaiseselt rohkem kui 10% aktiveeritakse circuit breaker, ehk lühikeseks müügi ordereid ei saadeta turule enne, kui keegi on ostnud askist. -
Bloomberg TV running a headline saying the Treasury Department projects debt ceiling will be reached on May 16, 2011
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Mis siis juhtub kui kuupäev käes on? Suure plärtsuga langeb tiiki järgmine black swan, seekord nimega fiscally frugal? Vot kui USA üleöö kärpima otsustab asuda, siis oleks see luik igati must ja ootamatu.
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Saksamaa ja Portugali 10-aastase võlakirja tulususte erinevused on teinud täna juba uue kõikide aegade rekordi 522 baaspunkti juures.
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USA rahandusminister Timothy Geithner kirjutas kongressi liikmetele saadetud kirjas, et USA valitsus jõuab oma seadusega ettenähtud võlalimiidini - $14,29 triljonit - hiljemalt 16. maiks, kutsudes seaduseloojaid ühtlasi võlaliimiti kergitama.
“The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations,” Geithner said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other members of Congress.
Congress needs to raise the limit to maintain vital services and avoid “questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” Geithner said. The U.S. would face sharply higher interest rates and would have to stop or delay payments to the military, retirees and others, he said.
“Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover,” Geithner said. “For these reasons, default by the United States is unthinkable.” -
National Semi to be acquired by Texas Instryuments (TXN) for $25 per share in an all-cash transaction of about $6.5 billion
TXN võtab NSM üle hinnaga $25 aktsia eest. NSM sulgus $14,07 peal. -
Kuna täna on DGW-st mitmes foorumiteemas juba juttu olnud,siis vahetult peale turu sulgumist tuli uudis, et firma CFO lahkub ettevõttest ja aktsia kaupleb järelturul $3,65 kandis.
Duoyuan Global Water announced a pending executive management transition. Chief Financial Officer, Stephen C. Park, announced his intention to leave the Company to pursue another professional opportunity. In order to assist with the transition, Mr. Park intends to remain with Duoyuan until the completion of the third party review or June 30, 2011, whichever is earlier. The Company is in the process of engaging a professional international search firm to assist in appointing a successor. Mr. Wenhua Guo, the Co's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Steve's expertise and leadership during the IPO and subsequent public company reporting periods has been invaluable to us. We are actively initiating the new hire recruitment process, and some of the key qualities we seek include knowledge of the U.S. capital markets, a strong accounting background and experience in communicating with a diversified shareholder base".
