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Börsipäev 7. aprill

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  • Kolmapäeva õhtul otsustas siis Portugal ametlikult paluda Euroopalt finantsabi, kuid kuna viimast on juba pikemat aega oodatud, siis turud ja euro pole selle peale erilist reaktsiooni näitamas. Täna ja homme toimub Ecofini kohtumine, kus paketi detailid võetakse ilmselt arutluse alla, kui Jean-Claude Juncker on pakkunud laenu võimalikuks suuruseks 75 miljardit eurot. Hispaania ajaleht El Pais on juba küsimas „Kes on järgmine?“, analüüsides Hispaania haavatavust. Võlakirjaturgu vaadates on näha, et Hispaania on suutnud teistest perifeeriariikide probleemidest viimasel ajal distantseeruda, ent kui nüüd kui Portugal on oma abi saamas, satub Hispaania oluliselt valvsama pilgu alla.

    Pöörates aga pilgud tänasele makrokalendrile, siis fookusese on ennekõike BOE ja ECB kohtumised. Esimese puhul oleks üllatuseks kui otsustatakse tõsta intresse või muuta võlakirjade ostu programmi, viimase osas on turg juba kuu aega arvestamas intresside 25 baaspunktise tõstmisega ning pigem kujuneks suuremaks üllatuseks, kui seda ei tehta. Pressikonverentsil kuulatakse aga hoolega vihjeid intresside edasise trajektoori kohta. Lisaks keskpankade otsustele avalikustatakse 13.00 Saksamaa tööstussektori tellimuste veebruarikuu muutus ja kell 15.30 USA möödunud nädala töötuabirahataotluste number. Viimase puhul ootab konsensus marginaalset langust 388K pealt 386K peale ning kestvate taotluste arvuks prognoositakse 3700K ehk 14K eelnevast nädalast vähem.

    USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,05% punases.
  • DB kirjutab, kuidas ECB puhul oleks baasintressimäära mittetõstmine lausa kõigile Bloombergi poolt küsitletud analüütikutele üllatus:

    A long, long time ago (well 700 days) and in a land far, far away (ok in Europe) there was once a time when interest rates actually changed when Central Bankers met. This era of inactivity should come to an end today as the ECB will likely be the first of the 3 main regions impacted by the credit crisis (Europe, US and the UK) to raise rates from emergency levels. All analysts polled on Bloomberg expect rates to increase to 1.25% from 1%.
  • Seoses tänase Euroopa keskpanga intressimäära otsusega on FT Alphaville'i blogi välja toonud graafiku ökonomistide ootustest intressimäära tõstmise osas enne märtsi kohtumist ja enne aprilli kohtumist:


  • Ehkki korraliku momentumiga alanud aasta tingib Morgan Stanley poolt eurotsooni tänavuse SKT kasvuprognoosi tõstmise 1,5% pealt 1,7% peale, siis intressimäärade tsükli algus ja euro tugevnemine hakkavad aasta teises pooles majandust rõhuma ning seetõttu kärbib analüüsimaja 2012. aasta SKT prognoosi varasemalt 1,7%-lt 1,2%-le, mis on teiste majadega võrreldes kõige pessimistlikum nägemus.

    Kui enne Euroopa Keskpanga märtsi kohtumist leiti, et eurotsoonis tänavu intresse ei tõsteta, siis nüüd oodatakse detsembri lõpuks juba 75 baaspunktist tõstmist. ECB pole kunagi varem enne FED-i rahapoliitika karmistamist alustanud, mistõttu pidi põhjaliku korrektuuri oma ootustes tegema ka valuuta meeskond. Lisades siia juurde veel kõrge nafta hinna mõju, siis tagajärjed saavad kõige tuntavamad olema 2011. aasta lõpus ning 2012. aasta alguses. Intresside ja võlakirja yieldide tõus ning samal ajal aeglustuv majanduskasv panevad aga eurotsooni taastumise korralikult proovile (eriti perifeeriariikides, kes peavad rangeid kärpekavasid ellu viima) ning Morgan Stanley arvates hakkavad varsti ka teised turuosalised oma prognoose allapoole tooma.



    Morgan Stanley on valmis meisterdanud ka mudeli, millega üritatakse analüüsida tõusvate intresside (+100bp) ja tugevneva euro (+10%) mõju erinevatele riikidele. Allolevalt graafikult võib näha, et riigid, mis asuvad rohkem vasakul all nurgas, tunnevad kõige tugevamat tagasilööki. Kõige sensitiivsemate majandustega on Saksamaa, Kreeka ning Soome, peegeldades võrdlemisi suurt tööstussektori osakaalu majanduses ning spetsialiseerumist tsüklilistes sektorites. Vastupidiselt peaksid aga eurotsooni keskmisest väiksemat mõju tundma Prantsusmaa, Belgia ja üllatuslikult ka Portugal.
  • Hispaania müüs täna 4,13 miljardi euro eest 3 aastaseid võlakirju ning yieldiks kujunes 3,568% vs 3,592% märtsis. Nõudlus aga oli varasemast mõnevõrra nõrgem, kui bid to cover näitajaks langes 1,79x peale vs 3,04x eelmisel korral.
  • Allolev Bloombergi graafik võtab päris hästi kokku seda, kuidas uutesse tippudesse edasi rühkimine toimub järjest väiksemate käivete saatel. 200 päeva libisev keskmine silub küll paljud päevased spike'id välja, kuid möödunud aasta Euroopa võlakriisi eskaleerumisest on hästi näha, kuidas sellises keskkonnas võib väiksemgi aktiivsuse tõus turgu raputada.
  • BOE leaves rates unchaged at 0.5%; Asset Purchase Plan unchanged at GBP 200 bln
  • ECB raises interest rates 25 bps to 1.25%, as expected
    ECB raises deposit facility rate 25 bps to 0.50%
  • Täna on FBR Capital Markets väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Salesforce.com (CRM) kohta.
    FBR tõstab CRM reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $170 hinnasihiga.


    We are upgrading Salesforce.com to Outperform and raising our price target to $170. The main reason for our upgrade is our revised bullish view on the company's diversification efforts. While much of the company's historical strength has been driven by its sales-force automation (SFA) business, we believe its diversification efforts—which got off to a slow start—are now gaining real traction. We have recently picked up positive data points from the field about Service Cloud, as it is now on its third release and is ready for "prime time." Also, we think last week's acquisition of Radian6 brings very valuable social media capabilities into the fold. We are also more bullish on Force.com and its ability to transform the company from just an applications company to a platform vendor. And to a lesser extent, the company's recent underperformance (both three and six months) contributes to our upgrade. Over the past three months, the shares are down 8% compared to up 3%, 10%, and 11% for the NASDAQ, FBR Software Index, and SaaS peers, respectively.

    Analüütikute sõnul on nad firma suhtes aina enam positiivsemaks muutumas ja seda just eelkõige tänud ettevõtte pingutustele eristuda. Kuigi firma ajaloolise tugevuse taga on olnud peamiselt SFA segment , siis tehtud muudatused hakkavad alles nüüd oma mõju avaldama. Analüütikud on saanud positiivset tagasiside Service Cloud kohta, mis nende arvates on nüüd jõudmas oma parima ajani. Lisaks sellele toob hiljutine Radian6 ülevõtmine analüütikute sõnul mitmed lisaväärtusi nagu võimalused kasutada sotsiaalmeediat.

    Antud call jäi mulle silma eelkõige seetõttu, et CRM on tuntud, kui hea liikuja ning aktsia peaks igal juhul upgrade`le reageerima. Teisest küljest ei kuulu FBR suurte majade hulka ning see võib reitingumuutuse mõju natuke ka vähendada ja turu toetus seetõttu ka olulisem.

    Hetkel kaupleb aktsia eelturul 1,7% plusspoolel, $133,70 kandis.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: BBBY +10.3%, BLUD +9.1%, PIR +8.6%, CHOP +4.6% (light volume), STZ +3.7%, LTD +3.3%, PBY +3%, M +2.4%, ZUMZ +1.8%, COST +1.3%.

    Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +2.9%, UBS +2.3%, STD +1.6%, HBC +1.4%, BCS +1.4%, DB +1.2%.

    Other news: XNPT +72.4% (Xenoport and GlaxoSmithKline receive FDA approval for Horizant), ZAGG +13.9% (signed an exclusive master license and distribution agreement with Logitech), IMGN +4.8% (Roche discloses Phase II Trial for T-DM1 significantly improved progression-free survival in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer), AAU +2.9% (surface work identifies new gold-silver targets near Ixtaca), TSRA +2.5% (announces strategic reorganization initiatives; exploring a possible separation of its Imaging & Optics business), ISIL +2.0% (mentioned as potential takeover target in report out overnight), IL +1.9% (priced a 7.5 mln share common stock offering at $25.50/share), NVS +1.6% (still checking), WSM +1.3% (ticking higher following BBBY results).

    Analyst comments: HERO +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Global Hunter Securities), CRM +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), ELN +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital).
  • Initial Jobless Claims 382K vs 386K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 392K from 388K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.723 mln from 3.732mln
  • Riiete jaemüüja GPS, mis müüb oma kaupu selliste kaubamärkide all nagu Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Piperlime ja Athleta teatas oma märtsikuu võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrite (same stores sales) 10%-st langusest ning prognoosib esimese kvartaliks konsensuse ootustest väiksemat EPS-i ( $0,44).
    Gap Inc Reports March SSS -10% v -7.8%e; Guides Q1 EPS "below" consensus estimate of $0.44
    - Looking ahead, we remain intensely focused on April and delivering on our full year strategies
    - Co anticipates that the tragic events in Japan will negatively impact its first quarter diluted earnings per share by about $0.04.

    Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 2,9 % miinuspoolel ($22,40).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: RT -10.2%, GPS -3.1%, PWER -1.8%, HOTT -1.6%.

    M&A news: QXM -24.1% and XING -4.6% (QXM says meeting of shareholders to consider the proposal by Qiao Xing Universal Resources was adjourned for lack of quorum; proposed transaction will be abandoned).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AU -1.5%, BBL -1.3%, MT -1.1%, HMY -0.9%, RIO -0.7%.

    Other news: INHX -8.6% (intends to commence a public offering of its common stock), MDRX -5.5% (discloses agreement with participating lenders to amend and restate the original credit agreement), FSC -3.1% (announces $150 mln private offering of convertible sr notes), SSW -3% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), SI -2.1% (still checking), BUD -2% (still checking), NFLX -1% (under modest pressure following cautious comments on CNBC's Fast Money), NOK -1% (Nokia downgraded by Moody's to A3/P-2; outlook negative), .

    Analyst comments: TZOO -2.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), MSM -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), BCR -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
  • A Stubborn Uptrend
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/7/2011 9:15 AM EDT

    "Time has a way of demonstrating that the most stubborn are the most intelligent."
    --Yevgeny Yevtushenko

    Despite a steady diet of negatives, the market continues to hold up extremely well. We've seen signs of waning momentum as we've struggled intraday and closed weak, but there are still some very stubborn bids under the market that have prevented any downside.

    Yesterday we had a notable change in the momentum stocks that have been leading the market lately. Between 80% and 90% of the hot momentum stocks pulled back while the broader market managed solid breadth and flat action. Money moved into some beaten-down banks and names like Cisco (CSCO) while profits were taken in the recent high-flyers.

    The fact that the market doesn't seem to be flinching -- although there are plenty of good reasons why it should -- is pretty standard behavior over the last two years. It has been the most remarkable and most challenging aspect of this market for some time. Every time you think we can't just keep going up in this manner, it happens again. One of these days the market will refuse to stay elevated, but trying to guess when that might be has been killing bears and driving underinvested bulls crazy for a very long time.

    My best advice for dealing with this sort of market is to try not to anticipate market turns. If you want to short, then wait for actual weakness and don't constantly play the top-calling game.

    It isn't hard advice to give but it can be quite difficult to implement. It is human nature to expect that extreme market behavior will not continue indefinitely. We are conditioned to look for a reversal when things move too far for too long in one direction. We expect that the market will act in accordance with our views about what is normal, although we are constantly seeing action that refuses to conform to what we think is reasonable.

    Even if you can resist the temptation to constantly try to call market tops, it is exceedingly difficult to stay heavily long when we have a market that acts in this manner. Any reasonable trader is going to take some profits into strength or use trailing stops to protect gains. You have to have a way to harvest profits and, in a market like this, if you end up selling, it is extremely difficult to find new entry points. Light volume only complicates the problem.

    I deal with this market by constantly looking for new longs and then playing them very short-term. I see very few opportunities to build long-term positions right now, although there are stocks like NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Molycorp (MCP) that I see as good potential candidates.

    Until there is a change in the nature of the market action, we need to keep honoring the fact that a very stubborn and persistent uptrend is in place. We may not agree with it, and we might not trust it, but we have to respect it.

    We have some flat action this morning. A 0.25% rate hike by the European Central Bank is seeing little response. Weekly claims are coming up but this is a market looking for a catalyst for its next move.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark was long NXPI and MCP, though positions can change at any time.
  • PWER eileõhtune revenue hoiatus ja tänane reaktsioon sellele on hea näide, mis juhtub kui negatiivne sündmus oli oodatud: vähenev ebakindlus/teadmatus on aktsia esimestel minutitel plussi lükanud. Paradoksaalne aga loogiline.
  • Market selloff coincides with headlines about another earthquake in Japan; reports 1 meter tsunami expected
    Reports indicate the magnitude was 7.4.
  • Fitch comments on U.S. debt ceiling and sovereign rating; says greater threat to U.S. financial stability and its 'AAA' status would be the failure to agree on a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy
  • CRM-i jaoks polnud avanemine just kõige parem algus, aga pakkus häid hinnatasemeid ning varsti peale avanemist sai aktsia ilusti liikuma. CRM avanes $133,37 pealt ning tuli hetkeks alla $132,30 juurde ja sealt edasi liikus kiirelt ülespoole, käies ära ka üle $134,50 taseme. Kuna turg sattus Jaapani tsunamihoiatuse tõttu ägeda müügisurve alla, siis koos sellega tuli aktsia samuti avanemistaseme juurde tagasi, kuid nüüdseks taastunud ning kaupleb $133,70 kandis ehk 1,7% plusspoolel.

  • The Fed purchased $6.58 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $18.97 bln
  • The Federal Reserve says consumers increased their borrowing by $7.6 billion in February. It was the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

    Consumers borrowed more money in February to buy new cars but cut back on pulling out their credit cards to make purchases.

    All of the strength came in the category that includes car loans. Borrowing in the category that covers credit cards fell. That category has risen only once in the more than two years since the 2008 financial crisis peaked.

    The gains in total credit pushed borrowing up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.42 trillion in February. That's 1 percent from the three-year low hit in September. Economists believe consumers need to start borrowing more to support sustained economic growth.

  • Expedia announces plan to separate into two companies; TripAdvisor to become public company .
    Co announces that its Board of Directors has preliminarily approved a plan to separate Expedia into two publicly traded companies: 1) TripAdvisor, which will include the domestic and international operations associated with the TripAdvisor Media Group, and 2) Expedia, which will continue to include the domestic and international operations of the company's travel transaction brands.

    EXPE teatab, et ettevõte poolitatakse kaheks ning TripAdvisor läheb iseseisva firmana börsile. EXPE aktsiaga on kauplemine hetkel peatatud.

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