Börsipäev 12. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kui USA indeksid liikusid eile võrdlemisi kitsas vahemikus, siis suurema languse tegi läbi toorainete turg eesotsas naftaga, mille barrel odavnes kolme dollari võrra ning on täna veel 1,2% madalamale tulnud, kaubeldes 108,5 dollaril. Tähelepanu keskpunktis on olnud eelkõige IMF-i värske maailmamajanduse väljavaade, milles jäeti küll tänavune globaalne SKT kasvuprognoos samaks, ent kärbiti veidi USA, Suurbritannia ja Jaapani kasvuootusi. Ühtlasi märkis Rahvusvaheline Valuutafond, et must kuld võib kujuneda majandusele ohuks, ent mitte ulatuses, mis taastumisprotsessi täielikult rikuks.
Aasia indeksid on pärast USA sessiooni kauplemas madalamal (va Hiina), kui sentimenti rikub eriti Jaapanis Fukushima tuumakriisi ohtlikkuse tõstmine kõrgeimale võimalikule tasemele, seitsme punkti peale, mis on võrdne Tšernobõli katastroofiga. Nikkei 225 kukkus ca 2%.
Täna avaldatakse mitmel pool Euroopas märtsikuu lõplikud inflatsiooninäidud, milles huvipakkuvamad võiksid olla Saksamaa ja Suurbritannia omad (vastavalt kell 9.00 ja 11.30). Kell 12.00 teatatakse Saksamaa aprillikuu ZEW majandussentimendi indeks, kell 15.30 USA veebruari kaubandusbilansi muutus ning kell 21.00 USA märtsi eelarve defitsiidi muutus.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,4-0,5% punases. -
Saksamaa märtsi inflatsioon kiirenes 2,1% võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga, mis ühtib varem avalikustatud esimese hinnanguga.
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David Rosenberg on välja toonud, kuidas väärtpaberite tagatisel võetud laenudega kontosid võimendatakse:
If and when the markets breaks, the problem in trying to contain the downside momentum is that there are no short left to cover, which actually helps as a shock absorber. The Fed has successfully cleaned out the short community, and the extent to which we see margins being called away may very well accentuate and downside pressure…if it should come. (link) -
Goldman Sachs sulges eile oma CCCP (copper, crude, cotton and platinum) idee. Põhjustest on pikemalt kirjutanud Reuters.
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Eile teatas ca 900mln USD turukapitalisatsiooniga pooljuhtide tootja Micrel, et esimese kvartali käive kahaneb Q4 baasil -10-11% vs varasemalt prognoositud -2-6% ning seetõttu kujuneb madalamaks ka EPS. Käibe puudujäägi põhjustena toodi välja 1) oodatust madalamat müüki Korea seadmete tootjale, kes oli varude taseme paremaks juhtimiseks sunnitud tarnet vähendama; 2) tagasilööke pakkumisahelas Jaapani katastroofi tõttu ja 3) ettevõtte enda vähenenud varusid. MCRL aktsia kukkus järelturul üle 10%
Kuigi tegemist ei ole teab mis tähelepanuväärse kasumihoiatusega, siis on Micrel esimene pooljuhtide tootja, kes sellise avaldusega välja tuli. Seega on downside risk, et ka suuremad tegijad võivad Jaapani ja varude olukorra tõttu käibenumbrites pihta saada. ASML raporteerib homme, STMicro ja ARM 27. aprillil ja Infineon 3. mail. USA-s avalikustavad Fairchild neljapäeval, TI ja Intel aga 18. ja 19. aprillil. -
Suurbritannia märtsikuu tarbijahinnaindeks tuli üllatuslikult 0,3% vs oodatud 0,6% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 4,0% vs oodatud 4,4%. GBPUSD -0,57%.
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Saksa analüütikute ja institutsionaalsete investorite hinnang jooksvale olukorrale näitas aprillis paranemist 85,4 punkti pealt 87,1 punktile, kui konsensus ootas kerget langust 85,2 punktile. Samas süvenes pessimism järgneva kuue kuu osas, kui vastavat meeleolu kajastav indeks kukkus 14,1 punktilt 7,6 punktile (oodati 11,3).
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Morgan Stanley on sarnaselt IFO küsitluse meetodile kombineerinud omavahel mõlemad ZEW indeksid ning lisanud taustaks SKT kasvunumbrid. Üldiselt on kombineeritud ZEW suutnud päris edukalt peegeldada majandustsüklit, mistõttu ootab MS veel esimesel poolaastal Saksamaale tugevat majandusaktiivsuse kasvu, kuid momentumi aeglustumist aasta teises pooles. Jooniselt ei tule hästi välja (või pole seda jõutud veel uuendada) aga kombineeritud ZEW indeks oli märtsis 49,8 ja aprillis 47,4.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SKBI +2.0%, WBMD +1.2%.
M&A related: EXEL +12.1% (early strength attributed to reports that the co has hired financial advisor ahead of potential takeover offers ), TIBX +3.7% (lifting on reports that the HPQ previously considered TIBX takeover), ITMN +3.0% (ticking higher on article discussing M&A activity in the drug sector).
A few China airlines are ticking higher: ZNH +6.8%, CEA +5.5%.
Other news: GMXR +9.6% (light volume, reports record 1Q11 production and provides guidance for Q2), IBNK +8.7% (thinly traded, Old National Bancorp to acquire Integra Wealth Management & Trust Division), KITD +5.8% (acquires ioko for ~$91.4 mln), KKR +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CYH +2.4% (modestly rebounding), BIIB +1.3% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), CUK +2.0% and CCL +1.2% (still checking for anything specific), AWH +0.8% (expects ~$75 mln in losses and loss expenses from the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan).
Analyst comments: AVII +5.6% (initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray), LVLT +3.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS), HUN +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), DDS +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee). -
Euro on eilse ja tänase Aasia sessiooni languse täielikult tagasi teinud ja on jõudnud juba uude 15 kuu tippu $1,4494 tasemel.
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March Trade Balance -$45.8 bln vs -$45.7 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -$47.0 bln from -$46.3 bln
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: EXTR -18.3%, MCRL -13.5% (also commences 9 mln share common stock offering pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement), TUES -11.1% (light volume), WMS -10% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), JOEZ -9.7%, AA -3.8% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital).
Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.0%, AIB -2.6%, IRE -2.4%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2%, RIO -1.9%, BHP -1.4%, GG -1.2%, PAL -1.2%, PAAS -1.1%, MT -1%, VALE -1%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SD -3.4%, SSL -2.9%, PTR -2.8%, RDS.A -2%, BP -1.6%.
Other news: SB -7.1% (announces a 5 mln share common stock offering), CBEH -7% (ticking lower, continued weakness), ECT -4.8% (announces pricing of secondary public offering of 2,525,000 common units at $29.35 per unit), ARMH -3.2% (still checking), IGT -2.3% (trading lower with WMS), F -1.7% (discloses update on Japan impact; working closely with those suppliers to assess their production and shipping capabilities and to minimize any disruptions).
Analyst comments: ELN -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), CSX -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at TD Newcrest), MS -0.9% (ticking lower by ~0.5% in pre-mkt trade; weakness attributed to estimate cut at tier-1 firm). -
Time for Caution
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/12/2011 8:30 AM EDT
"There is no such thing as talent. There is pressure."
--Alfred Adler
The market has been under pressure for nearly two weeks, with consistently weak intraday action -- a major warning sign. We have not had a strong close since March 29 as buyers can't seem to gain any traction. Though we haven't really accelerated to the downside, upside momentum has dried up and we are slowly edging downward.
Since the market's low two years ago, it's been quite unusual to have weak intraday action for this long a time. We have had some corrections along the way, most notably last summer, but even during that period the downside came quickly and occurred in just a few days. We didn't have too many periods where the intraday action was as consistently weak for as long as it has been recently.
Obviously, the character of the market has been different lately and that has been reinforced by poor action in a number of key stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) . Leadership stocks have lost their vigor, and the relative strength in oil and precious metals in recent weeks is more the result of fear over commodity prices rather than optimism about economic growth.
We did have some interesting strength in retailers yesterday, which was probably due to some weakness in oil, but the market is still on edge about how high gasoline prices will go. The bulls argue that high oil is just a temporary phenomenon, but the trend has been upward for a month and it's becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss the action as an aberration.
There have been plenty of good excuses to sell lately. High oil is the most obvious, but that goes hand in hand with concerns about inflation. Everyone except the Fed sees signs of inflationary pressures. The European Central Bank has a very different opinion, and unless you use electronic devices like iPads for food and fuel, then you are paying more for your daily purchases.
There is no issue that has a greater capacity to slow down this market than inflation. Inflation means the end of quantitative easing and the liquidity created by cheap money. The Fed assures us that it's premature to consider such things, but the market knows it's just a matter of time before some tightening becomes necessary -- and that causes some nervousness.
In view of the consistently weak intraday action, there's no choice but to take a more cautious stance. Things may change as earnings season unfolds, but if Alcoa's (AA) earnings last night indicate the start of a theme, it is going to be a struggle. We don't have any big reports until Google later this week, but we have to watch for a pattern to develop and to set the tone.
We have a soft open this morning and nothing much for the bulls to embrace. Overseas markets were down across the board, and news that the Japanese nuclear accident was as bad as Chernobyl is not helping matters.
Focus on defense and not giving back in gains. The market is under pressure and we have to let that play out.
At the time of publication, James "Rev Shark" DePorre had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. -
USAs on alanud börsipäev korraliku müügisurvega. Suuremad indeksid on vähemalt protsendi allapoole tulnud. Toorainesektoris kolistab teist päeva järjest allapoole nafta hind – kahe päevaga on WTI toornafta barrel odavnenud 7 dollarit ja kaupleb hetkel $106 juures (-3.4%).
Goldman Sachs, kes eile sulges oma CCCP idee, kirjutab täna, et lühiajaline korrektsioon peaks Brent toornafta barreli $105 juurde tooma (GSi WTI barreli kolme kuu target on $99.5):
We expect the oil market will experience a substantial pullback toward our $105/bbl near-term Brent crude oil price target -
Tänases Reutersis räägib uutesse innovaatilistesse firmadesse panustav investor Ray Lane,et USA autotööstusele on antud periood parim aeg ümber hinnata oma strateegiad. Kallinev nafta ja majanduslangus on tema sõnul väga hea meeledetutus, et tööstus on läbi tegemas muutusi. Lane räägib, et 2011. aastast saab murdepunkt, kus aina enam vaadatakse uue tehnoloogia suunas ning jätkub urbaniseerumine, mis omakorda sunnib otsima odavamat energiat.
Lane ütleb, et järgmise kümne aasta jooksul on näeb autotööstus sellised muutusi, mida pole olnud alates möödunud sajandi algusest. -
Bloombergis kirjutatakse, et IMFi sõnul saab USA käesoleva aasta eelarve puudujääk olema peamiste majanduste hulgas suurim ja USA valitsus peaks hakkama seda vähendama pigem nüüd, kui võtma vastu karme kärpekavasid paari aasta jooksul.
The U.S. shortfall will reach 10.8 percent of gross domestic product this year, ahead of Japan and the U.K., the Washington-based agency said in a report released today. It estimates that President Barack Obama will need to cut the deficit by 5 percentage points of GDP in the next two fiscal years, the largest adjustment in “at least half a century,” to meet his pledge of halving it by the end of his four-year term.
“Market concerns about sustainability remain subdued in the U.S., but a further delay of action could be fiscally costly, with deficit increases exacerbated by rising yields,” the IMF wrote in its Fiscal Monitor report, published several times a year to analyze public finances.
The IMF recommended “a down payment” in the form of deficit reduction this year that would make the government goal “compatible with a less abrupt withdrawal of stimulus later.”
Ja äsja avaldati USA märtsikuu eelarve defitsiit, mis tuli oodatud $189 miljardi asemel $188,2 miljardit. -
Tyco (TYC) aktsia on pärastlõunal näinud intensiivset ostuhuvi, mille tõenäoliselt on tekitanud Telegraph.com veebilehel ilmunud artikkel, kus väidetakse, et prantsuse päritolu firma Schneider on teinud TYC-le ülevõtu pakkumise. Väidetakse ka, et firma on põhimõtteliselt tehingust huvitatud, aga ei aktsepteeriks pakkumist, mis oleks vähem kui
$ 65 aktsia kohta.Kui tehing teostuks, siis saaks Schneiderist maailma suurim turvasüsteemide valmistaja.
TYC kaupleb hetkel 8,8% plusspoolel ($53). -
USA fiskaalseisundi kohta veel nii palju, et 2011. fiskaalaasta esimese poole (oktoober - märts) eelarve defitsiit kasvas eelmise aasta sama ajaga võrreldes 15,7%, tõustes eelmise aasta 717 miljardi USD pealt 829 miljardi USDni. Riigi tulud kasvasid samal ajal kõigest 6,9%.
The Treasury argued that the pace of increase in the deficit was deceptive because of large one-off reductions in expenditures made during the first half of fiscal 2010, compared with previous and subsequent periods.
Those included a $115 billion reduction in funds spent on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) -- the financial institution bailout program -- in March 2010.
But 2011 so far has also seen significant increases in spending on defense, Social Security, health and debt service, while receipts have not grown as fast.
