Börsipäev 19. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turud jätkavad täna tõenäoliselt S&P eilse otsuse edasist seedimist, kui pessimistid näevad 30%-lise tõenäosuse juures võimalust, et Standard & Poor’s võib järgmise kahe aasta jooksul USA krediidireitingut langetada. Optimistid võivad aga sellisel juhul välja tuua ligi 70%-st tõenäosust, et Obama ja Kongress jõuavad kokkuleppele rakendada fiskaalplaani, mis aitab Ühendriikidel kolme A-d säilitada.
Sellele lisaks võiks sentimendi kallutamisel olulist mõju omada eurotsooni aprillikuu esmane PMI näit (kell 11.00), mille puhul saab olema huvitav jälgida, kas intressimäärade tõstmine ja perifeeriariikide probleemid on töötleva tööstuse nägemust majanduskeskkonna suhtes jahutanud. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse aga USA-s märtsikuus alustatud elamuehituste arv.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% punases. -
Hispaanias, kus ca 90% kinnisvaralaenudest on seotud ujuva intressiga, on baasintresside tõstmine juba kinnisvaraturule märgatavat mõju avaldamas. Irish Independent kirjutab, et kinnisvaramüüjad olid enne EKP kohtumist sunnitud nõudluse stimuleerimiseks tegema hinnaalandusi, mis tõid märtsis lõppenud kvartaliga majade ja korterite keskmise hinna aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 4,6% madalamale - 10-s järjestikune kvartal, mil hinnad näitasid langust. Ühtlasi toob artikkel välja ka selle, et pankade bilanssides on jätkuvalt ülespoole ronimas ka ebatõenäoliselt laekuvate laenude maht, mis veebruaris ulatus 112,5 miljardi euroni.
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Eurotsooni tarbijausalduse indeks langes märtsikuu -10,6 pealt -11,4 punktini aprillis (oodati -11,0).
Eurotsooni PMI tööstusindeks 57,7 vs oodatud 57,0 (märtsis 57,5) ja teenustesektori indeks tuli vastavalt ootustele 56,9 punkti (märtsis 57,2). PMI koondindeks 57,8 vs oodatud 57,0 (märtsis 57,6).
Saksamaa PMI tootmissektori indeks tõusis samas 60,9 pealt 61,7 punktini (oodati, et langeb 60,0 peale), kuid teenustesektori indeks langes 60,1 pealt 57,7 punktini ja oodati 59,8 punkti. -
Kas keegi oskab välja pakkuda kohta kus saaks Eesti uudiste alerti teha. Et salvestan mingi märksõna või tehakse selle märksõnaga RSS feedi link mida saab edaspidi jälgida. Esialgu huvitab Eesti meedias toimuv ja oleks meeldiv kui enamus suurematest uudiskanalitest oleks kaetud.
Küsiks seda mõne teema all, aga foorumi otsing on katki. :( -
Goldman Sachsilt (GS) esmapilgul oodatust märgatavalt paremad Q1 tulemused:
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.56 per share, $0.74 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.82; revenues fell 6.9% year/year to $11.89 bln vs the $10.18 bln consensus. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CR +9.2%, SNE +6.0% (Sony Ericsson jv reported results), STLD +5.4%, WWW +4.7%, ZION +4.5% (also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at FBR Capital, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), LNCR +3.1% (also hearing upgraded at Raymond James), NVS +3.1%, JNJ +3%, STX +2.3% (also Seagate Tech and Samsung enter in to broad strategic alliance; co expects transactions and agreements to be meaningfully accretive to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share and cash flow within the first full year), GS +1.4%, .
M&A news: PKD +8.6% (jumps in pre-mkt trading; strength attributed to M&A speculation), ELMG +5.4% (received inquiries from potentially interested acquirers and that its Board of Directors has determined to initiate a formal process to explore strategic alternative), NYX +0.9% (IntercontinentalExchange and NASDAQ OMX Group deliver proposed merger agreement to NYSE Euronext Board).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BBL +1.2%, BHP +0.9%, MT +0.5%.
A few steel/aluminum related names modestly higher following STLD results: X +1.8%, AKS +0.7%.
A few China internet related names are ticking higher: DANG +1.9%, YOKU +1.4%, QIHU +1.3%, BIDU +0.9%.
Other news: TASR +7.3% (announced two follow-on orders for TASER X26 electronic control devices and related accessories), MICC +6% (announced that it intends to consolidate the listing of its shares onto one single exchange, NASDAQ OMX Stockholm), WDC +2.9% (ticking higher with STX), ALV +2.7% (announced that it is acquiring technologies, for automotive forward-looking vision systems, from Hella Aglaia Mobile Vision GmbH), SDRL +1.9% (still checking), S +1.3% (ticking higher on reports that it may rent wireless space to Clearwire and Lightsquared), DEO +1.1% (still checking).
Analyst comments: ETN +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BMI -11.4%, PKG -6.4%, BTU -3%, SCCO -2.3%, OMC -2.1% (light volume), TXN -1.6%, HOG -0.9%.
Select coal related names showing early weakness following BTU results: PCX -1.1%, ACI -1.1%, MEE -1%, KOL -0.9%, ANR -0.8%.
Other news: INVE -5.1% ( files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering), NLST -2.5% (Smart Modular Tech confirms PTO rejects 50 Claims of Netlist's 912 Patent), LOGI -2% (still checking).
Analyst comments: NTES -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen). -
momentum
Kas keegi oskab välja pakkuda kohta kus saaks Eesti uudiste alerti teha. Et salvestan mingi märksõna või tehakse selle märksõnaga RSS feedi link mida saab edaspidi jälgida. Esialgu huvitab Eesti meedias toimuv ja oleks meeldiv kui enamus suurematest uudiskanalitest oleks kaetud.
Küsiks seda mõne teema all, aga foorumi otsing on katki. :(
MS Outlook's RSS lugejat kasutades on võimalik teha eraldi kaust, kuhu saad vajaliku märksõnaga sissetulevad uudised tõmmata ja saad kohe uudise kohta alerti. -
The Case Against the Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/19/2011 8:46 AM EDT
"Still have I borne it with a patient shrug, for sufferance is the badge of all our tribe."
--William Shakespeare
After the drama of Standard and Poor's lowering its outlook on U.S. debt yesterday, the market is much quieter this morning as it tries to shrug off the worries. There was near unanimous agreement among market commentators and political pundits on the left that the S&P move was irrelevant; however, the market action indicated that investors weren't nearly as certain. Obviously, this huge debt is the 800-pound-gorilla in the room that will need to be dealt with at some point, but the market has been happy to defer that issue indefinitely. S&P forced the issue and many folks really didn't think that was necessary.
The indices did manage to bounce back a little late in the day and are stable this morning, but the news obviously motivated some folks to move to the sidelines. With the quantitative easing coming to end, inflation heating up and the debt worries growing, there is a clear negative case against the market and some folks are trying to stay ahead of the curve.
Technically, the market has been acting in fairly predictable fashion. We were oversold last week and that produced a minor bounce on Thursday and Friday. That bounce failed yesterday, just as you'd expect to see when a downtrend is developing. The selling was severe enough and intense enough to support some sort of relief bounce late yesterday and today, but there is no reason to believe that we are going to completely shake off the poor technical action quickly.
The good news this morning is that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are breaking the streak of negative reactions to earnings reports that we've seen so far this quarter. Texas Instruments' (TXN) report last night was lackluster, but both GS and JNJ have good pops this morning and that is helping the tone of trading. It is going to be very instructive to see how well they hold on to gains. The action so far this earnings season suggests that market players are looking for exits on earnings news. We haven't seen any sustained buying interest, but we haven't seen any good reports either.
We have very important earnings tonight from IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC) . INTC's results have often marked a turning point in the market action. With recent news about slowing PC sales, there are likely to be fairly low expectations.
Earnings are going to affect sentiment in the short term, but the bigger technical picture is negative. We are in pretty good shape for a bounce attempt, but the overhead resistance is building and the danger that a downtrend will develop further is increasing.
The S&P 500 has a clear potential double top, and we are back below key resistance at the 50-day simple moving average. The bulls need to move us back over 1,315 and hold there for some momentum to build.
The important thing is that we not become too comfortable. While we may want to play for some upside in the near term, we need to be skeptical of the bounces and be on watch for the market to roll back over. The technical and fundamental pictures are a challenge and it would not be at all surprising if we see another bout of selling develop after a day or two of stabilization.
Earnings will be the focus and the bargain hunters are likely to be looking for some action, but this is not a market that should be trusted very much at this point.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. -
Kes eilsest möllust ilma jäi, sellele annab AMRN täna võimaluse alla 17 siseneda.
Et juhtkond on andnud mõista, et firma müüakse kohe kui saabub võimalus sellest diilist maksimum võtta, siis on ülevõtutehing lähema kuu-kahe või isegi pigem nädala küsimus. Alla 20 dollari aktsiast ilmselt diili ei tule, selles paistavad kõik ühel nõul olevat. Seega on 17 ikkagi veel odav, mis sest et mitte nii odav kui 7 eelmisel nädalal.
Disclaimer: ei soovita ega keela midagi osta/müüa ega vastuta kellegi investeerimis/kauplemisotsuste eest. Do your own research.
Disclaimer 2: pikk positsioon eelmise nädala lõpust saadik, hoian üsna tõenäoliselt kogu positsiooni võiduka lõpuni (st pakkumiseni). -
Panen siia ka varasemalt avalikustatud kinnisvarastatistika, mis osutus arvatust pisut paremaks ning pakkus eelturul futuuridele tuge. Hetkel on USA olulisemad indeksid avanemas ca 0,2% kõrgemal.
March Housing Starts 549K vs 520K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 512K from 479K
March Building Permits 594K vs 540K Briefing.com consensus; prior 534K -
Blackboard retains Barclays Capital in response to unsolicited, non-binding offers; Board of Directors to evaluate strategic alternatives.
BBBB, mis tegeleb tarkvara arenduse ja müügiga haridusasutustele, andis teada,et otsib firmale ostjat ja kaupleb nüüd 34,3% kõrgemal ($ 49,90). -
Kuna viimastel päevadel on olnud aktuaalseks teemaks USA riigivõlg, siis WJS-s on saadav huvitav tabel, mis võimaldab võrrelda hetkeseisu ja võla kasvu riigiti. Tabel on koostatud Standard&Poors krediidireitingute ning prognooside põhjal.
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CF Industries Reaches Settlement Resolving EPA Complaint; the company will pay a civil penalty of $625,000
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Wynn Resorts prelim $1.38 vs $0.73 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $1.26 bln vs $1.15 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
VMware prelim $0.48 vs $0.42 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $844 mln vs $815.45 mln Thomson Reuters consensus -
Cree prelim $0.27 vs $0.29 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $219.2 mln vs $217.43 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
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Cree sees Q4 $0.25-0.31 vs $0.36 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees revs $225-245 mln vs $243.78 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
CREE-l prognoos kehva ja esimese hooga alla $40 -
Intel prelim $0.56 vs $0.46 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $12.8 bln vs $11.59 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
Intel sees Q2 revs $12.35-13.35 bln vs $11.87 bln Thomson Reuters consensus -
Esmapilgul on Inteli numbrid küll positiivset üllatust pakkumas, eriti veel, kui arvesse võtta negatiivset sentimenti, millega Inteli aktsiat enne tulemusi üha madalamale müüdi. Järelturul on aktsia võrreldes eilse sulgumishinnaga tõusnud juba 7% kõrgemale.
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Yahoo! prelim $0.17 vs $0.16 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $1.06 bln vs $1.06 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
Yahoo! sees Q2 revs $1.075-1.125 bln vs $1.10 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
YHOO-l üsna ootustele vastavad tulemused. Aktsia kaupleb järelturul $ 16,70 kandis, ca 2,5% plusspoolel.
