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Börsipäev 29. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tänast makrokalendrit vaadates võiks välja tuua eurotsooni aprillikuu esmase inflatsioonäidu (kell 12.00), mis konsensuse arvates püsis samal tasemel võrreldes märtsi 2,7%-ga, kuid üllatus ühele või teisele poole võiks avaldada mõju eurole, sütitades spekulatsioone kui kiiresti peaks EKP uuesti intressimäära kergitama hakkama. Samal ajal avalikustatakse ka euroala märtsi töötuse määr. Seejärel liigub tähelepanu juba Ühendriikide majandusele, kui kell 15.30 teatatakse märtsikuu isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutus ning tuuminflatsioon. Kell 16.45 avaldatakse Chicago PMI ja 10 minutit hiljem Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi indeks (aprill).

    USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad hetkel 0,05% jagu punases.
  • Hommikul avaldati Saksamaa jaemüügi tulemused, mis näitasid märtsikuus 2,1% langust vs oodatud +0,2% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes -3,5% vs oodatud +1,4%. Euro on täna kauplemas suhteliselt kitsas vahemikus avanemistaseme $1,4835 juures.
  • Hispaania töötuse määr jätkab ronimist ning ulatus esimeses kvaratalis juba 21,3%-ni ehk ühe protsendipunkti võrra kõrgem võrreldes neljanda kvartaliga.
  • Eurotsooni tarbijahinnaindeks tuli 2,8% vs oodatud 2,7% (Y/Y). Töötusmäär jäi püsima vastavalt ootustele 9,9% peale. Euro on vaikselt kõrgemale liikumas, kaubeldes hetkel 0,26% plusspoolel $1,4860 juures.
  • Nagu eilses börsipäeva foorumis juba ka mainiti alandas Research In Motion (RIMM) oma prognoose, viidates probleemidele just nutitelefonide segmendis.
    Guides Q1 EPS $1.30-1.37 v $1.48e, Rev slightly below prior $5.2-5.6B range v $5.4Be ($1.47-1.55 prior guidance), Cites smartphone sales.

    Eelturul on RIMM-i aktsia juba 11,6% miinuses ($ 50,02)

  • Šveitsi KOF juhtiv indikaator 2,29 vs oodatud 2,2 punkti (eelmise kuu näit korrigeeriti üles 2,25 punkti peale). Šveitsi frank on täna tugevnemas (tehes USD vastu järjekordse kõikide aegade tipu 0,8670 tasemel), tingituna peamiselt Šveitsi keskpanga kommentaaridest, mille kohaselt on keskpank valmis võtma meetmeid, et tagada hinnastabiilsust; Šveitsi majandus on ühtlasi kasvamas jõudsamas tempos, kui algselt prognoositi.
  • Bloomberg vahendab:
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and other 14 other investment banks face a European Union antitrust probe into credit-default swaps for companies and sovereign debt, regulators said.

    The European Commission said it opened two antitrust probes. It will check whether 16 bank dealers colluded by giving market information to Markit, a financial information provider.

    It will also examine whether nine of the banks struck deals with ICE Clear Europe, a clearinghouse for derivatives, that block other clearinghouses from entering the market and give rivals “no real choice where to clear their transactions.”
  • Research In Motioni eilne teadaanne on tekitanud elavat vastukaja ka analüütikute seas ja paraku mitte positiivset laadi.
    Paljud analüütikud alandavad ka omalt poolt kasumiprognoose ning koguni kolm analüüsimaja on muutnud ka reitinguid ehk siis hetkel on aktsiale antud kolm downgrade`i. Kõige tähelepanuväärsem neist on ilmselt RBC, mille analüütik Mike Abramsky on olnud pikka aega RIMM-i tulihingeline fänn. Täna on ka tema oma usu ettevõttesse kaotanud ning alandab RIMM-i aktsia reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale ja hinnasihi $90 pealt $ 55 peal

    Our prior Top Pick rating was based on 1) fundamental value not reflected in 8x valuation; 2) new products restoring momentum and investor confidence. We were wrong, as mis-execution has undermined sentiment recovery. Our SP rating reflects our view that RIM shares will likely remain pressured pending improved investor visibility on the company’s earnings momentum.

    Analüütik tunnistab, et tema eeldused olid valed ning lootused uutele toodetele paraku ennast ei õigustanud. Ühtlasi lisab, et tõenäoliselt jäävad ettevõtte aktsiad surve alla kuniks selgub, kas firma suudab tekkinud takistused edukalt ületada.

    Jefferies on oma hinnangutes veelgi karmim ning alandab RIMM-i reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale koos $35 hinnasihiga.

    In addition to lowered May Q guidance, our checks indicate RIMM will see continued execution issues, product delays, and lackluster product launches for the next year. We believe Blackberry OS 7.0 (renamed, formerly 6.1) and QNX will be delayed and that carriers are withdrawing support.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et probleemid uute toodete turule toomisega jätkuvad ning kanduvad edasi ka järgmisesse aastasse.

    Vaatamata sellele, et RIMM-i aktsia on oma valuatsioonilt odav, siis tõenäoliselt täna siiski aktsiale armu ei anta, mille tõestuseks on ka juba eelturu hinnatase, kus RIMM kaupleb ligi 12% miinuspoolel ($ 49,95)

  • Caterpillarilt (CAT) väga korralikud tulemused, mille peale kaupleb aktsia eelturul 2.5% kõrgemal:

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.84 per share, $0.53 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.31; revenues rose 57.2% year/year to $12.95 bln vs the $11.69 bln consensus. Co raises guidance for FY11, raises EPS to $6.25-6.75 from near $6.00 vs. $6.26 Thomson Reuters consensus; raises FY11 revs to $52-54 bln from >$50 bln vs. $52.43 bln Thomson Reuters consensus. The order backlog was $20.8 bln at March 31, 2011, a new record. During the first quarter of 2011 the order backlog increased 11 percent from $18.7 billion at December 31, 2010, and is significantly higher than March 31, 2010, which was $12.7 billion. "While our 2011 outlook has improved, the increase would have been greater if not for the impact of the disaster in Japan. Our facilities were not damaged by the earthquake and tsunami, but many of our suppliers in Japan were impacted. As a result, we are experiencing sporadic production disruptions at many of our facilities around the world. We expect the disruptions will have a negative impact on sales, factory efficiency and costs--particularly in the second quarter. While the situation has steadily improved in the aftermath of the disaster, it will likely have a negative impact on 2011 sales of about $300 million and negatively impact operating profit by about $100 million... ." (briefing)
  • Nelli, kuna Sa Rimmi hingeelu hästi tead ,siis küsin ,mis arvad kuhu rimm sellise neg. uudiste pealt tambitakse?
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DLA +18.7%, NTGR +16.9%, SWKS +14.5%, TNAV +13.9%, SIMO +13.4%, ACOM +13%, ASGN +12.4% (light volume), TRLG +11.5%, KEG +11.3%, GT +9.3%, SCEI +9.3%, HLS +9.2%, CSTR +8.6%, N +7.3% (ticking higher), EMN +6.9%, MPWR +6.3%, PMCS +5.5%, AXL +5.3%, ZOLL +5.3%, CW +4.5%, (light volume), CERN +4.4% (light volume), MMI +4%, WBC +3.7% (ticking higher), LEG +3.3%, OLN +2.7%, VFC +2.2% (light volume), CAT +2.1%, MRK +2%, CLF +1.5%, VPRT +1.4%, KLAC +1%.

    M&A news: SPWRA +38% (Sunpower and Total Partner to create a new global leader in the solar industry; Total Group will launch a friendly tender offer through a wholly owned subsidiary for up to 60% of co's outstanding Class A Common shares and 60% of co's outstanding Class B Common shares at a price of $23.25/share for each class), DEP +3.1% (Duncan Energy and Enterprise Products Partners agree to a merger; DEP unitholders would receive 1.01 EPD common units in exchange for each DEP common unit), STBC (Valley National Bancorp to acquire State Bancorp).

    Solar names soaring higher following SPWRA news: CSIQ +7.1%, WFR +6.7%, CSUN +6.3%, YGE +5.2%, SOL +5.1%, LDK +5%, SOLR +4.9%, JKS +4.2%, TAN +4.1%, JASO +3.9%, STP +3.9%, ASTI +3.8%, FSLR +3.3%, ESLR +2.8%, TSL +2.2%

    Other news: HRZ +13.6% (court reduces Horizon Lines' fine to $15 million), KERX +4.2% (announces positive final data from Zerenex short-term phase 3 study), GBLI +3.1% (announces preliminary evaluation of strategic alternatives), ZSTN +2.9% (ticking higher, responds to shareholders' questions; says SAIC filings are a formality, for the purposes of business license renewal with the government, and are not auditer), SAP +1.8% (still checking), BIDU +1.5% (still checking), VRTX +1.3% (halted yesterday, Vertex Pharm announces FDA advisory committee unanimously recommends approval of Telaprevir for people with hepatitis C), DE +0.6% (ticking higher with CAT).

    Analyst comments: PG +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), CL +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank).
  • to krookus: Väga keeruline öelda, sest ega RIMM-i probleemid nüüd päris selgest taevast ka välja ei ilmunud. Analüütikud on ettevõtte suhtes olnud üsna ettevaatlikud juba mõnda aega ja kui paar pikaajalist fänni välja arvata, siis valdav osa on olnud siiski seda meelt, et RIMM-il pole vähemalt nutitelefonide turul enam vajalikke vahendeid konkurentidega (loe Apple`ga) turuosa eest võitlemiseks. Loodeti, et asjade kulgu toob pöörde PlayBook, aga paraku on ka see kohati üsna terava kriitika osaliseks saanud.
    Lühidalt öeldes on raske uskuda, et see siit ($ 49 juurest) oluliselt rohkem enam alla müüakse, kuna osaliselt on nõrk prognoos ilmselt juba ka hinnas sees.
  • RIMM negatiivsete kommentaaride vastukaaluks ka Citi arvamus:

    Event – After a mere 35 days post giving quarterly guidance, Thursday night RIMM
    preannounced lower-than-expected May quarter results. May quarter EPS is now expected
    to be 11% lower to $1.30-$1.37 vs. $1.47-$1.55 previously (consensus $1.48) as a result of
    lower Blackberry smart phone sales in the US & Latin America coupled with RIMM's new
    products being delayed by a few weeks (not quarters) to the near end of the August quarter.
    Smart phone units will be at the lower end of 13.5-14.5 guidance with a mix shift toward
    lower ASP phones causing total sales to be slightly below the range of $5.2-5.6 billion
    (consensus $5.4b). Gross margins remain 41.5% as expected.
    Why Not Downgrade? We did not expect this negative announcement nor do we believe
    others did as the stock traded down 11-12% after hours. We are not downgrading the stock
    as: 1) we believe this preannouncement de-risks the quarter & sets the stage for investors
    to focus on the company's upcoming investor day on May 2 where the company will likely
    showcase its new products which we believe will include several touch products, improved
    web browser, improved graphics, faster hardware, higher memory, improved battery life and
    enhanced user interface rather than having such bad news overshadow the May 2 event; 2)
    RIMM's new products are delayed only a few weeks & not quarters; 3) tech supply chain
    confirms strong order build plans for RIMM's new products; 4) FY EPS guidance to be
    $7.50 compares to consensus of $6.87 (consensus likely goes even lower) revealing that
    both the buy side and sell side do not believe this $7.50 guidance so sets up potential
    positive EPS revisions; 5) stock is trading at less than 7x earnings; 6) we believe RIMM will
    announce a 10% stock buy-back in July similar to last year which could add $0.50-$0.75 to
    estimates; 7) RIMM is still growing units & sales 20%+ y/y even in this challenging quarter
    before the transition to new products; and 8) sentiment is very negative.
    Stock Call – We are not changing our $80 target price as our financial model changes are
    more of a next 1-2 quarter shift in product launch assumptions which are delayed a few
    weeks (not multi-quarter delay). We recognize the market does not believe RIMM's $7.50
    EPS guidance and we too are discounting this guidance given the sharp 2H product ramp.
    We believe this may be the last disappointment for investors.

    Ilmselgelt tänane kauplemine saab volatiilne olema, aga natuke pikemas perspektiivis ma pigem nõustuks Citi arvamusega, et tegemist oli suures plaanis non-eventiga. Fookus on järgmise nädala BlackBerry Worldil ja uutel toodetel, mitte selle kvartali numbritel.
  • March Personal Income +0.5% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.3%
    March Personal Spending +0.6% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus, prior +0.7%
    March PCE Prices- Core +0.1% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus, Prior +0.2%
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PDFS -12.3%, OCLR -11.7%, RIMM -11.6% (also downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies, downgraded to Sector Perform from Top Pick at RBC Capital ), INFN -8.1% (also downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), DECK -7.9%, INAP -7.2% (light volume), TSYS -7%, RHB -6.9%, IM -5.7% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray, downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus ), CROX -5.6% (also appoints new CFO), MTW -4.7%, MXWL -4.5%, ENDP -4.4%, AMKR -4.3%, CTCT -3.4% (light volume), CAVM -2.8%, VSEC -2.8% (light volume), OPWV -2.4%, MWW -2.2%, RGC -1.7% (ticking lower, also downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), MSFT -1.1%.

    M&A news: VLY -2.3% (Valley National Bancorp to acquire State Bancorp).

    A few optical related names under pressure following OCLR earnings: FNSR -3.7%, JDSU -1.9%

    Select healthcare facility related names showing weakness: KND -10.7%, SKH -9.6%, SUNH -4.7%.

    Other news: ONTY -15.4% (prices an underwritten public offering of 10 mln shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $4.00 per share for gross proceeds of $40.0 million), WWE -8.3% (WWE announces revised dividend policy; adjusts quarterly dividend to $0.12 per share), CMLP -6% (prices a public offering of 1,800,000 common units at $30.65 per unit), GME -0.9% (under pressure following CSTR news that it will offer video game rentals).

    Analyst comments: OSK -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, downgraded to Hold at The Benchmark, downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), SNH -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), VZ -1.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), DAL -0.7% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Capstone), TAP -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan).
  • Logic Is a Liability
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/29/2011 8:29 AM EDT

    Hell, there are no rules here -- we're trying to accomplish something.
    -- Thomas Edison

    The biggest challenge of this market has long been that overbought conditions tend to be meaningless. Even though we go straight up and there are plenty of reasons that we should pull back or rest a little bit, we just keep on going. The very logical rules about market action just haven't worked.

    This tendency has persisted for so long, you have to be almost foolhardy to ever risk calling the market extended. Overbought technical indicators that normally signal some sort of pause just don't work in this market. Once we start these straight-up moves, they just keep on going and cause great frustration for both bears and underinvested bulls, and that just makes the trends even more persistent.

    The most challenging aspect of this market action isn't that the trend is so strong, but that it fails to produce a steady supply of good trading setups. Taking gains simply leaves you on the sidelines with too much cash. However, when the vast majority of stocks go up five, six or seven days in a row, there just aren't that many great entry points. Buying stocks that are up numerous days in a row isn't a trading style that usually works very well ... except when the rules of gravity have been suspended, as they seem to have been in this market.

    Obviously the way to deal with this sort of market behavior is to forget about overbought conditions and stick with the trend no matter how illogically extended it may seem to be. No amount of reasoning has worked with the one-sided nature of the market action, and if you want to be successful in the market, you have to respect that fact.

    The current market action is even harder to embrace because it's so closely tied to the weak dollar. The Fed made it clear that it has no intention of tightening anytime soon, and that stance is absolutely crushing the dollar. Traders have a Pavlovian response to the weak dollar and automatically buy gold, silver and commodities. Nothing else matters. The Fed and the Obama administration seem totally unconcerned about how weak the dollar is, as The Wall Street Journal reports on its front page today, and that just keeps the merry-go-round going.

    I've been a bit troubled by some of the underlying action in the market, but it doesn't seem to be doing anything to slow down the indices so far. Big-cap momentum plays have been underperforming and many leadership names have been acting soft. There is a big nonconfirmation with individual equities -- we'd normally expect more stocks to be hitting new highs given that the indices are at highs.

    Once again there are plenty of reasons to be cautious, but the one overwhelming positive is the persistency of momentum once it starts running. That has been the only thing that has mattered for a very long time.

    We have a weak dollar again this morning, and that is helping to drive us up. We have some bad news from Microsoft (MSFT) and Research In Motion (RIMM) , but that is being offset by some good reports from the likes of Caterpillar (CAT) and a takeover in the solar sector.

    Although we are overbought, the trend continues to be up -- and that is the key to this market.

    No positions.
  • Hea sõnaseadmisoskuse poolest tuntud James Altucher on üllitanud artikli pealkirjaga "10 Reasons You Should Never Own Stocks Again". Artiklis toob ta välja 10 erinevat põhjust, miks ei ole hea mõte aktsiaid osta ehk siis investeerida või kaubelda. Kindlasti ei peaks seda artiklit väga tõsiselt võtma, aga lahe lugemine on see küll ning mis seal salata, ka oma tõetera on seal sees.
  • The Fed purchased $6.68 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $29.62 bln
  • Eile öösel sai FDA heakskiidu Spectrum Pharmaceuticalsi (SPPI) metastaatilise käärsoole vähi ravim Fusilev. Enne approvali müüdi aktsia ligi 15% alla, arvata on, et vähemalt sellejagu tõuseb ta esmaspäeval tagasi. Siiski, väga eufooriasse ei maksa SPPIst sattuda - nimelt sai Fusilev juba varem müügiloa, sest selle vähi ravimiks kasutatav geneerikut, leucovorini, ei suutnud konkurendid toota nii palju kui vaja. Skeptikud ütlevadki, et kuna Fusilev pole näitajatelt leucovorinist eriti parem, müüakse teda täpselt nii palju kui leucovorini shortage on ja kestab. Pärast ei taha keegi kallist retseptiravimit kui odavam geneerik on olemas. Siiski pakuks et lühiajaliselt läheb SPPI aktsia üle $10 tagasi, v-o isegi 11-12.

    Vertex (VRTX) nägigi eile kasumivõttu nagu ma kartsin. Neil, kes 23. mai approvali peale mängivad, oli hea võimalus positsioon sisse võtta.

    Biotehhisektorist tasub läbipäevil jälgida veel Avaniri (AVNR) ja Mannkindi (MNKD). Avanir, mis on küllalt kõvasti lühikeseks müüdud (viimaste andmete järgi 26% free floatist short), peaks teatama oma järjekordse kvartali tulemused mai esimesel nädalal. Konsensus on -0,12 kuni -0,14 dollarit per aktsia, iga vähegi parem tulemus võib vallandada lühikeste massilise katmise. Ehkki, reedesel suure volüümiga väikesel tõusupäeval, katsid paljud shordid juba ilmselt ära. Põhiteema on AVNRi puhul, kui hästi on müünud nende äsja FDA heakskiidu saanud PBA (pseudobulbar affect, neuroloogiline seisund, mis lihtsalt seletatult tähendab kontrollimatuid emotsioonipurskeid) ravim Nuedexta.

    Mannkindil on 4. mail koosolek, kus tehakse FDA-ga nõupidamistest järeldused. Mannkind, kelle peamine produkt on inhaleeritav insuliin Afrezza, on ausalt öelda üks biotehhi häbiplekke - kümme aastat uuringuid, miljardeid raisatud raha, aga FDA approvali ette näidata pole. Ka viimased kuud pärast Afrezza tagasilükkamist oleks võinud Mannkind teisiti käituda - FDA-ga lõputute nõupidamiste korraldamise ja protsessimise asemel oleks võinud teha nõutud uuringud - praegu oleks juba tulemused käes. Samas on küllalt biotehhis investoreid, kelle jaoks on Al Mann, MNKDi juht ja peamine omanik, siiani jumal ning kes ootavad temalt imesid (noh, kas või järjekordset rahasüsti virelevasse MNKDsse).

    Muidugi, eraldi teema on, kas FDA tahab üldse heaks kiita inhaleeritavaid ravimeid. Praegu tundub, et ei taha, sest kõigi puhul rõhutatakse väga kõrget ohutusriski. Samas, patsientide vaatevinklist oleks inhalaatorid väga teretulnud ja mugav vaheldus süstidele ja pillidele.

    Disclaimer 1: lühiajaliselt long AVNR, short MNKD
    Disclaimer 2: ärge mängige oma rahaga biotehhisektoris, risk on väga kõrge

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