Börsipäev 4. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänaste makrouudiste keskmes on USA ADP tööjõuraport (kell 15.15), mis võiks anda vihjeid reedel avalikustatava statistika kohta. Konsensus ootab erasektoris 200 000 töökohta loomist ehk samal tasemel nagu märtsiski. Kell 17.00 teatatakse USA teenustesektori ISM indeks. PMI indekseid avaldatakse täna mitmel pool ka Euroopas, mille võtab kokku terve eurotsooni teenuste PMI kell 11.00. Tund hiljem avalikustatakse euroala märtsi jaemüügi muutus.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% miinuspoolel. -
Eile õhtul teatas Portugali peaminister Jose Socrates, et riik jõudis ELi ja IMFiga kokkuleppele 78 miljardi euro suuruse abiplaani tingimuste suhtes (Socrates ei öelnud, millise hinnaga laenu saadakse).
„The three-year plan set goals for a budget deficit of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, 4.5 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013...
Socrates today said the agreed plan does not involve more cuts in public-sector wages or in the minimum wage. (allikas Bloomberg)
Tingimused ei tundu nõnda karmid nagu nt Kreeka puhul, kus langeva majanduskasvu taustal võlakoormus aina kasvab ja hoolimata bailoutist on riik ikkagi ilmselt sunnitud võlakoormust restruktureerimine. -
Eurotsooni teenustesektori lõplik PMI pisut madalam, kui esialgu indikeeriti: 56,7 punkti vs varasem 56,9
EUR/USD on selle peale osa tõusust ära andnud ning kaupleb nüüd 0,13% kõrgemal @ 1,4844 -
Võimalik Au ja Ag kukkumise põhjus :
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Funds led by well-known investors such as George Soros and John Burbank have been selling off their gold and silver holdings recently, helping fuel the metals' price falls, The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday, citing people close to the matter. The report said the selling marked a threat to the nine-month precious metals rally, but added that some prominent investors, such as hedge-fund manager John Paulson, continue to favor gold and silver. In late morning Asian trade Wednesday, spot gold traded at $1,531.60 an ounce, down 0.4% from the New York close, while silver was at $41.18, a fall of 1.2%. -
BMW tõuseb suurepäraste 1Q11 tulemuste peale viimase aasta tippude lähedale.
Nõudlus BMW luksusautode järele kasvab kõige kiiremini jätkuvalt Hiinas, kus sõiduautode müük kasvas 58706ni (+72% yoy!). Mõnda aega tagasi kirjutasime loo, kus lisaks BMWle tõime välja ka teisi Euroopa ettevõtteid, kes Hiinas edukalt laienevad. Kel huvi, siis link loole siin. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GMCR +20.2% (also plans to offer an aggregate of 7.1 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), ADGF +14%, VCLK +12.3% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, upgraded to Buy at Needham, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman), AXTI +11.3%, FEIC +10.2% (also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman), NVMI +8.5%, GLUU +8.1%, SGI +6.5%, CBS +5% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SPPI +4.8%, ROIC +4.1%, CMCSA +2.6%, HAIN +2.2%, NICE +0.8% (ticking higher), SKH +0.5% (light volume).
M&A news: VSEA +27% (Applied Materials to acquire Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates for $63 per share in cash), RAH +7.3% (ConAgra Foods announced that it has made a proposal to acquire Ralcorp for $86 per share in cash), SWS +5.1% (Sterne Agee Group increased offer; SWS also reported earnings).
A few VSEA/AMAT peers lifting in early trade: ACLS +13.6%, LRCX +3.3%, NVLS +2.9%, ASML +2.7%, KLAC +2.4%,
European drug names showing strength: NVS +1.7%, SHPGY +1.4%, GSK +1.3%, AZN +1.2%, SNY +0.9% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade).
Other news: NEOP +14.5% (announces Lymphoseek meets all endpoints in neo3-09 Phase 3 study), SCEI +9.6% (continued strength), RIG +2% (still checking), HHC +1.4% (following Whitney Tilson comments on CNBC Fast Money).
Analyst comments: RDC +1.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Sell at Duncan-Williams). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BTUI -19.6%, QSFT -16.8%, KTCC -13.3%, PLT -11.7%, MOTR -11.4%, OPLK -10.5%, WWWW -8% (also downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig-Hallum), FSLR -7.8% (downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart, upgraded to Buy at Auriga), PWR -6.7% (light volume), OPEN -6.2%, LVS -6%, AMAG -6% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink Swann), CENX -4.6%, DEG -2.6%, GXP -2.6% (light volume), OCZ -2.4%, MGM -2.3%, BEXP -1.7%, BALT -1.1% (ticking lower).
A few solar related names are ticking lower following FSLR results: JKS -2.8%, TSL -2.3%, LDK -1.8%, JASO -1.7%, SOL -1.7%, CSIQ -1.4%, YGE -1.2%, SPWRA -0.8%, STP -0.8%.
Other news: JTX -27.0% (NYSE to suspend trading, according to reports), YRCW -5.4% (continued weakness), JOE -3.8% (following Whitney Tilson comments on CNBC Fast Money), ALSK -2.6% (announces proposed private offering of $100 mln of convertible notes due 2018).
Analyst comments: NSC -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, LM -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), CHK -0.7% (downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Global Hunter). -
EUR/USD-i puhul on hetkel 1,50 äraproovimine muutunud üsna ahvatlevaks
EURUSD printing 1.4925; trading at best level since early December 2009 -
Don't Deceive Yourself
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/4/2011 8:19 AM EDT
We are never deceived; we deceive ourselves.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
The main purpose of the major indices is to provide investors with a snapshot of overall market health. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up, then we should be comfortable that most stocks are acting OK. Most of the time that's true, but sometimes there is a major disconnect -- as was the case yesterday.
On Tuesday the DJIA closed almost exactly flat, but under the surface there was wholesale destruction in leading stocks. The Investor's Business Daily list of 50 leading momentum stocks did not have a single stock in positive territory yesterday. In fact, they declined an average of 2.8%. That is a significant pullback, and it wasn't limited to the big-cap momentum names. Many small-caps, oil, commodities and precious metals were hit hard.
The weakness was covered up by strength in defensive names and some of the conservative big-caps. Some value buyers were probably happy about the performance in their holdings, but anyone who was holding stocks that have been leaders lately likely suffered some severe pain yesterday.
It was a very deceptive day, but the bigger question is whether this is a sign that the character of the market is changing, or whether it's just a short-term hiccup that will be quickly forgotten. If you are a disciplined trader and are holding stocks that were hit hard on Tuesday, you have little choice but to take some stops and exit some positions. The No. 1 rule of trading is to cut your losses aggressively and not just sit there and let them grow. Of course, there is always the risk we will snap back and you will feel a bit foolish for selling at the lows, but that's sometimes the cost of disciplined trading.
With defensive stocks leading, oil and commodity stocks reversing and weakness in high-beta momentum names, there certainly is a good argument that the character of the market is changing. We had some leadership in banks yesterday as well, but when market players are looking to load up on Wal-Mart (WMT) and Procter & Gamble (PG) and dump Google (GOOG) , Baidu (BIDU) and Lululemon (LULU) , then something is happening -- and it's unlikely to be a positive for the broad market.
Don't let the mild action in the DJIA and S&P 500 lull you into holding individual stocks that are acting poorly. If your positions are breaking down, then do some selling, regardless of what the major indices might be doing.
The indices are very deceptive right now, and quite often they will play catch-up only after a substantial amount of damage is done under the surface. If you wait too long and are not disciplined in cutting weak stocks, you will suffer some outsized losses before the broader market really starts to appreciate that we have a market undergoing a change in character.
We have mixed action in the early going so far today. Precious metals and commodities are under pressure and there are a number of weak earnings reports. This market has some issues and we have to make sure we don't use the major indices to deceive ourselves.
No positions. -
varasemalt teatatud ADP raport oodatust pisud nõrgem ning võiks turuosalisi reedese NFP osas ettevaatlikumaks muuta
April ADP Employment Change 179K vs 200K Briefing.com consensus
ADP March revised to 207K from 201K -
RenReni (RENN) IPO hinnaks kujunes 14 dollarit ja aktsia hakkas äsja kauplema 19.5 dollari juures.
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April ISM Services 52.8 vs 57.4 Briefing.com consensus; March 57.3
EUR/USD +0,75% @ 1,4935 -
Kas hõbedas on mull või mitte?
Hõbeda viimase 60 aasta hinnagraafik: -
Milline log graafik näeks?
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Business Insider on toonud välja 36 statistilist fakti tõestamaks, et maailmakuulus ja ihaldatud American Dream hakkab ühe keskklassi kuuluva ameeriklase jaoks pigem õudusunenäoks muutuma, kuna viimastel aastatel aset leidnud korrektsioonid USA majanduses on ameerika unelmast ainult riismed alles jätnud.
Näiteks on USA-s 5,5 miljonit töötut, kes ei saa ka enam riiklikku toetust ja nn madala sissetulekuga töökohad on viimase kolmekümne aastaga stabiilselt tõusnud ning tänaseks moodustavad 41% kõigist töökohtadest. Ainult 66,8%-l Ameerika meestest oli möödunud aastal töö ja see on madalaim näitaja, mis kunagi USA ajaloos esinenud on. Kui kunagi oli McDonald`s koht, kust said tööd ka need, kellel erilisi oskusi ega haridust ette näidata polnud, siis nüüd on ajad muutunud ning McDonald`s lükkab tagasi rohkem kandidaate kui Harvard.USA-s elab rohkem kui 20% lastest vaesuses, Prantsusmaal ja Suurbritannias on sama näitaja alla 10%-i. -
The Fed purchased $1.5 bln of 2013-2041 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $6.30 bln
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Hiina internetifirmade IPO-de sadu hakkab juba kergelt hüsteerilisi noote võtma, sest aina enam tundub, et kõik ettevõtted, kes vähegi internetiga seotud on, plaanivad oma firma börsile tuua. Näiteks järgmisena on USA börsile oodata Hiina suurimat tutvumisportaali Jiayuan.com. Chinadaily kirjutab, et portaalil on 40 miljonit registreeritud kasutajat, aga ainult 4,7 miljonit on neist aktiivsed ja vähem kui üks miljon kasutajat nõustuvad maksma portaali teenuste eest.
Kõige kurioossem on antud IPO puhul vast juhtkonna põhjendus börsile tulekuks, sest kogutud rahaga plaanitakse maksta eelisaktsionäridele ära seni väljamaksmata dividendid. -
Ja mis instrumenduga saab hõbeda langusele panustada ?
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ZSL näiteks.
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to: Tin
Mõned enimkaubeldus instrumendid:
ZSL->ProShares UltraShort Silver
SLV, AGQ-> lühikeseks müük
Lisaks nende alusvarade optsioonid -
tänud
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Seda RENN-i ei saagi lühikeseks müüa.
Vot kus lops! -
Tesla Motors beats by $0.08, beats on revs (26.69 -0.18)Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.44 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.52); revenues rose 135.5% year/year to $49 mln vs the $43.3 mln consensus
TSLA-lt üle ootuste head tulemused ja aktsia eelturul kauplemas ligi 5% kõrgemal, $ 28 all. -
GM plaanib investeerida $131m ja värvata 250 uut töötajat oma Corvette tehasesse Bowling Greenis, et seda hakata reorganiseerima järgmise generatsiooni mudelite tootmiseks. Tehases töötab hetkel u 400 töötajat, mida ei ole palju võrreldes 80ndate hiilgeajal tööd saanud ligi 1000 inimesega.
Möödunud aastal toodeti seal ca 15000 autot, aga odavad need GM mudelivalikus ei ole: baasmudeli hinnad algavad sealmaal $50k. Peale 9% langust möödunud aastal, on müük taastunud selle aasta alguses.Esimeses kvartalis müüdi juba 4300 autot, mis teeks aastaseks kasvuks juba 22%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-adds-250-jobs-at-Corvette-apf-3754950216.html?x=0&.v=5 -
RENNi kohta üks arvamus:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/business/global/02ipo.html?_r=1 -
momentum,
Logaritm-graafik näeb välja selline:
