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Börsipäev 16. mai

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  • Reedene oodatust parem Euroopa makro ei suutnud turgusid siiski üleva hoida ning täna on Aasias alanud nädal taas negatiivse fooniga. USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2-0,35 punases.

    Põhifookus langeb täna euroala rahandusministrite kohtumisele, mille raames peaks Portugal saama abipaketi heakskiidu. Jutuks peaks tulema ka Kreeka uus finantsabi, kuid IMF-i presidendi D. Strauss-Kahni arreteerimine on kiire otsuse langetamise vähemtõenäolisemaks muutnud. Lisaks jälgitakse eurotsooni aprillikuu inflatsiooninäitu (kell 12.00), mis võib valuutaturul volatiilsust lisada. Konsensuse arvates revideeritakse THI-d 2,7% pealt 2,8%-le. USA sessiooni eel avaldatakse kell 15.30 Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus.
  • Eelmisel nädalal turul kirgi kütnud Yahoo (YHOO) ja AliBaba.com-i vaheline kokkupõrge AliBaba ühe olulisema üksuse Alipay müügi pärast on uuel nädalal küll vaibumas, aga jätab õhku endiselt hulgaliselt küsimusi.
    WSJ kirjutab, et nii YHOO kui ka AliBaba esindajad teatasid pühapäeval, et tehakse koostööd olukorra lahendamise suunas.
    Teadaanne viitas küll ettevõtete koostööle antud küsimuses, kuid siiski pole ühtegi märki sellest, et ettevõtted oleks mingil moel lähemal oma koostöö parandamisele pikemas perspektiivis.
  • Yahoo CEO Bartz-le tahetakse kinga anda, sest pole suutnud kahe aasta jooksul firmat ümber pöörata.
  • Eurotsooni aprillikuu inflatsioon vastas ootustele, kerkides eelmise kuuga võrreldes 0,6% ja aastaga 2,8%

    EUR/USD selle peale erilist reaktsiooni ei näita ning jätkab kauplemist 0,2% plussis @ 1,4130 USD
  • FT Alphaville'i blogis juhitakse tähelepanu tervitatavale uudisele, mille kohaselt on Rootsi Taani järel teine ELi liige, kes on keeldunud pankade kahjumeid maksumaksja arvele kirjutamast.
    May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Sweden's financial regulator wants to copy a bail-in model first tested in neighboring Denmark to ensure that senior bondholders share losses in insolvencies.

    The Stockholm-based Financial Supervisory Authority wants bank insolvency rules in Sweden and the rest of Europe to discourage risk-taking by driving home the message that creditors will no longer be bailed out by taxpayers, said Martin Andersson, the regulator's director-general.

    "The development in Denmark is a good one. It illustrates that you take risks when you put money into a bank and you can lose money," Andersson said in an interview in Stockholm. "I think this is what we need in the future and what we will hopefully see on the EU side and what we will definitely argue for in Sweden. Owners should definitely be wiped out and creditors should bear losses" in bank insolvencies.
  • Täna on uudistekanalite tähelepanu keskendunud IMF-i presidendi D. Strauss-Kahni arreteerimisele ja Zerohedge vahendusel võib lugeda, et Strauss-Kahni vastu on esitatud veel üks vägistamissüüdistus ja seekord tema teise abikaasa ristitütre Tristan Banoni poolt. Ehk siis hetkel seisab IMF-i presdent silmitsi kahe vägistamissüüdistusega nii USA-s kui ka Prantsusmaal.
  • USA võlakoormus on lähipäevil kasvamas Kongressi poolt sätestatud maksimumini ehk $14.294 triljonile. 12. mai seisuga oli USA võlakoormus $14.256 triljonit ehk limiit on kohe-kohe saavutatud. Kuigi finantsmeedia on probleemist suure mulli paisutanud, siis vaatamata vabariiklaste ja demokraatide erimeelsustele julgen kahelda, et limiidi tõstmine oluliseks probleemiks osutub. Kokku on Kongress limiiti kergitanud 74 korral - 2001. aastast saati 10 korral. Päris kindlasti tuleb aga demokraaridel vabariiklaste veenmiseks fiskaalpoliitilisi järeleandmisi teha ning uudiseks on hoopis see, milliseks need järeleandmised kujunevad.
  • Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivsete kommentaaridega SanDisk (SNDK) kohta.
    Morgan Stanley kinnitab oma Osta soovitust ja tõstab hinnasihi $ 65 pealt $ 70 peale.


    Kõige olulisem lõik Morgan Stanley callis on aga alljärgnev:

    2012 Bull Case of $100: Our work shows that SNDK is significantly undervalued relative to both semis and cloud driven hardware stocks on +20% earnings growth potential in next two years.

    Analüütikud nimelt usuvad, et SNDK on märkimisväärselt alahinnatud ning usuvad, et 2012. aastal realiseerub nende bullish stsenaarium ehk SNDK-st saab $ 100 aktsia.

    Investors missing the longer-term growth story: SNDK is trading at 9x/6x our revised CY11/12 estimates respectively, suggesting investors underestimate the revenue and EPS upside potential from three catalysts: 1) NAND is becoming a non-commodity for OEM devices like smartphones as reflected by a 32% delta between spot and contract pricing; 2) client SSD adoption is poised to accelerate in 2H11 and 2012 as new ultra light notebooks with SSDs/and hybrid-SSD are launched; 3) NAND demand for high speed performance in enterprise storage for cloud computing surges.

    Analüütikute arvates ei ole investorid siiani märganud SNDK potentsiaali pikemas perspektiivis. Esiteks hakatakse NAND näiteks nutitelefonides laialdasemalt kasutama ning ka SSD (A solid-state drive) kasutamine kasvab tänu uutele äärmistelt kergete sülearvutite turule toomisega 2012. aastaks.

    Tegemist pole küll reitingumuutusega, kuid analüütikute väide, et SNDK võiks olla juba järgmisel aastal $ 100 aktsia ei tohiks küll turuosaliste tähelepanuta jääda.

    Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 2% plusspoolel.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JCP +3.5%, BSPM +3.3% (light volume), BITS +1.2% (thinly traded).

    M&A news: PRM +60.7% (Primedia to be acquired by TPG Capital for $7.10/share in cash), CISG +23.2% (CNinsure receives non-binding going private proposal), CONM +17% ( to explore strategic alternatives including, but not limited to, the possible sale of the Company; James Desnick discloses 9.4% stake in amended 13D filing; proposes to acquire co for $3.5/share ).

    Other news: SIGA +8.5% (awarded U.S. Government contract valued at Up to $2.8 bln), CPIX +6.5% (Caldolor study demonstrates significant reduction of fever in patients with severe thermal burns), DMED +5.4% (subsidiary receives Health Canada Medical Device License to market its Spring Universal Infusion Sets), SD +1.6% (early strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper), DECK +1.5% and EQT +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: ENOC +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), AMR +2.7% and JBLU +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), F +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), MGM +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies).
  • May Empire Manufacturing 11.9 vs 18 Briefing.com consensus; April 21.7
  • On arvamusi, et DSK vahistamine võib viia võlakriisi eskaleerumiseni. Milleksi, mis algab Kreeka laenutingimuste karmistamisega ja lõppeb millegi sootuks hullemaga. Tunduks sümboolne kui läänemaailma allakäiguspiraali esimese doominokivi lükkaks pikali prantslane, kes mõtles rohkem oma kürva kui peaga.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LOW -4.9%, CEL -2.2% (ticking lower).

    M&A news: NYX -9.8% and NDAQ -1.5% (NASDAQ OMX and IntercontinentalExchange withdraw their proposal to acquire NYSE Euronext).

    Other news: RICK -1.9% (registers to sell 404,082 shares of common stock for shareholders), HD -1.6% (trading lower with LOW), BEXP -1.1% (reports it is accelerating its pace of drilling operations in the Williston Basin; expects to be at 10 operated rigs by July 2011; is ~6 months ahead of its previously announced schedule).

    Analyst comments: HTLD -4% (downgraded at Robert W. Baird).
  • Reedel aktuaalne olnud Tyco (TYC):
    Tyco ticking lower; Hearing attributed to Schneider comments that it is not planning nay large acquisitions in the near-term
  • Kui mai Empire Manufacturing viitab tööstussektori jahtumisele, siis sama näitasid kuu alguses ka erinevate riikide PMI’d:

    Allikas: The Economist
    Langevate toorainehindade ja kallinevate USA valitsuse võlakirjade taustal tasub tööstussektori kasvu aeglustumisel silm peal hoida. Hetkel on siiski veel näha, et PMI indeksid tegid samassuguse kukkumise ka nt 2003. aastal, mis oli majanduslangus ohumärgina valealarm.

  • Watch for a Failed Bounce
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/16/2011 8:35 AM EDT

    If we are facing in the right direction, all we have to do is keep on walking.
    -- Buddhist Proverb

    Very choppy trading and weak action under the surface has made for a challenging market over the past couple weeks. With no clear direction recently, there appears to be increased danger that a downtrend is developing and that is making it tough to position.

    News over the weekend that the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was arrested and accused of sexual assault in New York and that China is still battling inflationary pressures is keeping the pressure on as we kick off a new week. The big question is: Can the market fight off the recent pressure or is the market character starting to undergo a major shift?

    The good news is that despite some troubling action the major indices, most notably the S&P 500, they are still holding above key technical support. The S&P 500 needs to hold the 1330 level and then, more importantly, the 50-day moving average which is just under 1325. As long as it can do that, then the uptrend is still in place and the bulls are in good position to turn the market back up.

    The bad news is that under the surface, the action has been quite poor. The stronger dollar has trashed oil, precious metals and commodity stocks and there are signs that the bounce in the dollar and weakness of the euro could continue. Another concern is that the action in momentum stocks has been quite poor. There are a few exceptions such as Amazon (AMZN) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) but most of the stocks favored by the hot money are showing signs of technical deterioration. Baidu (BIDU) and the Chinese Internet names including Sina (SINA) and Sohu (SOHU) are good example. Two weeks ago, these stocks were leading but they have completely fallen apart.

    Things aren't much better with small-cap momentum names either. Most of the charts are undergoing corrections and need more time to set up. The fact that money has been flowing into defensive stocks such as Procter & Gamble (PG) , Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pepsico (PEP) isn't an encouraging sign either.

    There certainly are some negatives out there to contend with but the lesson of this market for the last couple years is that it has been a mistake to be too negative when the indices are in a precarious position. The market has continually come back stronger -- just when it looked like it was ready to break down and see a downtrend start to accelerate.

    Over and over again, the scenario has been that the market reverses back up, which traps the aggressive bears and sends the underinvested bulls scrambling to re-establish some long exposure. When the bounce keeps going, performance anxiety sets in as everyone quickly forgets what they were worried about in the first place.

    Given the recently choppy action and the poor performance of individual stocks, there is little choice to be cautious. While it certainly is possible that the market will shrug off the recent negatives and go straight back up, like it has done so often, there just aren't many stocks that look inviting. I am simply not willing to put a high level of faith in the bulls until I see some individual stocks acting better.

    My review of stocks this weekend was quite depressing. There are some interesting stocks with good recent earnings that I'm interested in buying, but they aren't offering attractive entries right now. The upside momentum is very sparse and there isn't any solid underlying support yet.

    We are in a very challenging place right now with a variety of negatives brewing that could finally trip up the market's resiliency. We would be foolish to jump to the conclusion that this time it is different and that the market will finally crack -- but we certainly have to be ready for that possibility.

    Overseas markets are red across the board but futures have improved a little overnight. We will see what sort of effort the dip buyers put forth once the market opens, but the big danger to watch for is a failed bounce.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned, but positions may change at any time.
  • WSJ- s on väga huvitav artikkel sellest, kuidas suured pangad delikaatse infoga tegelikult ümber käivad. Artiklis kirjutatakse, et pankadel on kombeks pidada aeg-ajalt kohtumisi, kuhu kutsutakse ainult väga valitud seltskond. Üldjuhul on kohale kutsustud ainult käputäis riskifondide esindajaid. Artikli autorid väidavad, et kinniste uste taga ei arutata ainult koostööalaseid küsimusi, mis on täiesti seaduslik (pangapoolne seletus), vaid seal võetakse arutluse alla ka tehingud, mis avalikkusele teada pole ehk teisisõnu jagab pank riskifondidele infot, mida saab nimetada siseinfoks. Panga huvi riskifondidele meele järele olla on loogiliselt seletatav, sest just viimati nimetatud genereerivad pankadele arvestatava summa eest teenustasusid. Väärtpaberijärelvalvele aga sellist laadi kohtumised ei meeldi ning on võtnud need ka lähema uurimise alla.
  • Obama on oma ametikohta kindlustama asunud - nädalavahetusel teatas president, et mootorkütuse hindade tõus USAs on lühiajaline nähtus ning energiasektorile pakutakse erinevaid stiimuleid tootmise tõstmiseks.

    NY Times:
    "The administration will ... accelerate a review of the potential environmental impact of drilling off the southern and central Atlantic coast and will consider making some areas available for exploration. The move is a change from current policy, which puts the entire Atlantic Seaboard off limits to drilling until at least 2018.

    The president also said he would extend leases already granted for drilling in the Arctic Ocean off Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico that had been frozen after the BP spill last year.

    And the government will provide incentives for oil companies to more quickly exploit leases they already hold. Tens of millions of acres onshore and offshore are under lease but have not been developed."


    RIG hetkel ca 1.7% plussis
  • WSJ toob esile, kuidas hedge-fondid jt varahaldurid nädalaga toorainetes net-long positsioone vähendasid:


    Still, speculators remain net long in the market, with a net-long position of 302,002 contracts as of Tuesday.

  • Nagu varem juba mainisin, siis USAd võlakoormuse limiidi tõttu maakaardilt ei pühita. Vaatamata sellele, et riigil ei ole õigust limiiti ületada, siis olukord on arvatust “parem”.

    Esiteks, USA valitsusel õigus tagasi osta Civil Service Retirement and Disability fondile (CSRDF) väljastatud võlakirjad ($6 miljardit kuus) ning peatada korralised CSRDF investeeringud USA võlakirjadesse (seaduse kohaselt võimalik investeeringud peatada 2. augustini, mis tähendaks ca $5 miljardit vähem investeeringuid).

    Teiseks, 30. juunil aegub $67 miljardi väärtuses CSRDF’le väljastatud USA võlakirju, mis üldjuhul tähendaks $67 miljardi väärtuses investeeringuid uutesse võlakirjadesse – valitsuse on õigus ka see edasi lükata.

    Kolmandaks, valitsusel on õigus peatada Government Securities Investment Fund (G Fund ehk föderaalvalitsuse heaks töötajate pensionifond) investeeringud USA võlakirjadesse. Fondi suuruseks on $130 miljardit ning kõik fondis hoitavad võlakirjad aeguvad iga päev.

    Kui numbrid kokku liita, siis on valitsusel ca $214 miljardit võlakoormusega piltlikult öeldes manööverdada. Loomulikult kompenseeritakse fondidele kõik saamata jäänud tulu kohe, kui limiit tõstetakse veelgi kõrgemale (USA nooremale põlvkonnale ei tasu öelda, et nemad selle kinni maksavad).
  • Tuntud toorainete pulli Jim Rogersit viimaste nädalate hõbeda hinna korrektsioon ei hirmuta. Vastupidiselt teeb see teda õnnelikuks, kuna hõbeda hinna järsk langus pakub võimalust positsioone suurendada (link Rogersi intervjuule toorainete, Hiina ja USA teemal):
  • The Fed purchased $1.44 bln of 2013-2041 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $8.55 bln
  • SNDK liikumine on olnud täna väga ilus. Aktsia avanes $ 47,47 pealt ja on sealt alates stabiilselt ülespoole rühkinud ning hetkel kaupleb $ 49,55 kandis, 6,7% plusspoolel.
    Allolev graafik räägib enda eest.

  • Lisan siia ühe võrdlemisi huvitava graafiku, mis pärineb Man Groupi Man Systematic Strategies osakonnalt. Sisuliselt näitab graafik, et globaalse haardega analüüsimajade "osta" reiting toob kaasa suurema aktsiahinna tõusu kui näiteks väiksema ehk ühele regioonile/riigile spetsialiseerunud analüüsimajade sama reiting.

  • Veidi huumorit unetutele - Google kirjutas oma hiljuti avaldatud 10-Q raportis:

    “Commentary by industry and market professionals about our products, strategies, and other matters affecting our business and results, regardless of its accuracy.”

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