Börsipäev 17. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Euroopa turud alustasid eile suhteliselt negatiivse meeleolu vallas, kuid päeva lõpus suudeti tänu USA positiivsusele osa kaotustest tagasi teha. Tehnoloogia ja tarbekaupade sektori eestvedamisel libisesid USA indeksid sessiooni jooksul siiski madalamale ning kerget riskikartlikkust on jätkuvalt tunda ka Aasias.
Eurotsooni rahandusministrid otsustasid eilsel kohtumisel toetada Mario Draghi kandidatuuri EKP presidendi kohale ning kinnitada Portugali 78 miljardi euro suuruse finantsabi paketi, mis on Kreeka 110 miljardi ja Iirimaa 85 miljardi euro suuruste laenude järel järjekorras kolmas. Täna jätkub Euroopa rahandusministrite kohtumine. Lisaks sellele võiks turuosaliste jaoks huvi pakkuda veel Suurbritannia aprilli THI raport (kell 11.30) ja Saksamaa maikuu ZEW indeksid (kell 12.00). USA poolel jälgitakse aprillis alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arvu (kell 15.30) ning kell 16.15 möödunud kuu tööstustoodangu muutust.
Kuigi USA futuurid liiguvad hetkel kerges plussis, siis Euroopa futuurid indikeerivad avanemist 0,9% punases. -
Eurotsooni võlateema ning QE2 lõppemise tõttu on turud viimasel ajal veidi müügisurvet tundnud, sealhulgas ka Saksamaa DAX. Deutsche arvates tuleks siiski keskenduda Saksa ettevõtete tugevusele, mistõttu pakub praegune nõrkuse hetk turgudel ostuvõimalust. Deutsche tõstab DAX-i selle aasta sihi 7410 pealt 8000 peale, mis praeguse taseme juures märgib 8,3% upside'i. Siin on selleks peamised põhjused:
1) Strong economic momentum (strongest Q1 GDP growth yoy since unification, our economists expect German GDP growth for 2011 of 3.2% instead of 2.5%).
2) Strong Q1 reporting: Out of 47 German Stoxx600 companies 74% have positively surprised on the earnings level and 73% surprised positively on the sales level.
3) Strong earnings momentum: The recent revision ratio for the Dax has a level of +0.24 clearly ahead of the European Stoxx600 at -0.10. Dax 12-month forward earnings have increased by 7% since the start of 2011 and would increase by another 8% until year end, if earnings estimates 2011 and 2012 remain stable.
4) Undemanding valuation: If the Dax stays at the current 12-month forward P/E level of 10.7 and the earnings estimates remain constant for seven months, then the Dax would already move up to 7,900, so our new Dax target requires nearly no multiple expansion.The Dax 12-month forward P/E of 10.7x is even trading at a small discount to Europe with a P/E of 10.8x.
5) The inflows into German equity funds continue to look healthy and we expect this to continue driven by low bond yields and diverse economic development in Europe. -
Bespoke tõi eile esile internetiaktsiate nõrkust. Siin internetiaktsiate liikumist kajastava börsil kaubeldavad fondi HHH viimase poole aasta graafik:
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Internetiaktsiate teemal oli hea kaanelugu ka viimases The Economistis - The new tech bubble.
...This time is indeed different, though not because the boom-and-bust cycle has miraculously disappeared. It is different because the tech bubble-in-the-making is forming largely out of sight in private markets and has a global dimension that its predecessor lacked. -
Eile õhtul ringles turul kuulujutt, et Apple (AAPL) plaanib oma jaemüügi kümnenda aastapäeva puhul millegi uue ja huvitavaga välja tulla. Alguse sai kuulujutt BGR.com veebilehelt, kus väideti, et neil on selle plaani kohta infot, mis pärineb usaldusväärsest allikast.
Veebilehe vahendusel võib lugeda, et tõenäoliselt planeerib Apple 19.maiks midagi erakorralist, kuna iga Apple`i poe töötajatel on palutud jääda öisesse vahetusse ning kirjutada alla NDA (Non Disclosure Agreement) lepingule. Lisaks eelnevale on saadetud poodidesse ka uut riistvara installeerimiseks ning poe akendele pannakse ette kardinad, varjamaks poes toimuvat. Toimumas on rohkemgi ebatavalist, millest võib täpsemalt lugeda siit.
We`ll see... -
Suurbritannia aprillikuu tarbijahinnaindeks 1,0% vs oodatud 0,7% (eelmisel kuul 0,3%) (M/M) ja aastasel baasil 4,5% vs oodatud 4,1% (eelmisel kuul 4,0%). Baasinflatsioonimäär 3,7% vs oodatud 3,2% (Y/Y).
GBPUSD +0,6% ja kaupleb 1,6287 tasemel. -
Saksamaa ZEW sentimendiindeks 3,1 vs oodatud 4,5 punkti.
Eurotsooni ZEW sentimendiindeks 13,6 vs oodatud 17,3 punkti ja eurotsooni ZEW hetkeolukorra indeks 91,5 vs oodatud 87,5 punkti.
Euro kauplemas päeva tippudes $1,4217 tasemel (+0,41%). -
Siin on ZEW indeksid ka graafiliselt
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Üks suurimaid ohutegureid USA majandusele on mootorkütuse hind. Reuters kirjutas eile, et toornafta viimase aja langus on lõpuks jõudnud ka kütuseturule, kui esimest korda kaheksa nädala jooksul alanes bensiini üleriigiline keskmine hind 5 sendi võrra 3,96 dollarini
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GFRE +23.8%, PLAB +10.6%, LONG +6.1% (Expedia reports that Tencent acquires 16% of eLong in strategic investment, Expedia co-invests), VOD +3%, SKS +2.5%, SCEI +2.1%, WINN +1.8%, SCOK +1.6% (results in 10-Q were out before the close), WMT +0.5%.
Select metals/mining related names showing strength: GOLD +2.1%, RIO +2.0%, BBL +1.9%, BHP +1.9%, SLW +1.5%, SLV +1.4%, MT +0.8%.
Other news: BP +2.4% (BP and Rosneft fail to reach deal by deadline; BP says continuing negotiations, according to reports), DPZ +2.2% (trading higher following Trian Fund stake disclosure), BJRI +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: PSTI +12.1% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), KERX +6.3% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), AONE +5.6% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), NKTR +2.6% (initiated with a Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood), ALLT +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity). -
April Building Permits 551K vs 590K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 574K from 594K
April Housing Starts 523K vs 563K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 585K from 549K -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GLPW -7.6% (light volume), CDII -6.9%, DKS -6.6%, TSL -5.8%, ZOOM -5%, HPQ -4.7%, HPQ -3.3%, GBG -2.4% (light volume), WMT -1.2%, CTRP -0.8%.
Other news: MRNA -20.5% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and warrants), PLOW -9.7% (announces 5 mln share secondary offering by selling stockholders), TXCC -7% (announced a common stock offering for an indeterminate amount), CALD -4.6% (announces offering of $70 mln senior convertible notes due 2016), ICON -1.9% (announced a $275 mln convertible sr subordinated notes offering), DELL -1.3% (trading lower with HPQ).
Analyst comments: SYT -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), CREE -1.9% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade). -
Adapt to the New Environment
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/17/2011 8:33 AM EDT
Change in all things is sweet.
-- Aristotle
Momentum traders and small-cap investors fled the market yesterday and left some carnage in their wake. We've been experiencing weak action under the surface of the market since May 2, and yesterday it accelerated. The market has been signaling a major change in character lately, and we need to make sure we adapt in order to protect our capital.
The senior indices have been covering up the poor action and change in market character, as some big-cap defensive names have enjoyed good relative strength. Stocks like McDonald's (MCD) , Pepsi (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG) have been seeing accumulation as the hot money dumps high-beta favorites like Apple (AAPL) , Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) .
So is this just a healthy correction that is going to squeeze out some excess and set us up for some more near-term upside? Or is it the start of a deeper and more prolonged pullback? The market has been very successful in recovering just as it looks like it is about to break down, but this time the selling of small-caps, momentum stocks and oil- and commodity-related names is sufficiently aggressive to make us worry that we have more downside to come.
If you want to make money in the market, nothing is more important than trading with the trend. About 80% of stocks will move together at any particular time, and if you are in tune with that you greatly increase your chances of success. That is why I'm constantly trying to assess whether the market has undergone a change in character. If the trend has changed, then we'd better amend our approach. If you adapt to the change in a timely manner, you will be in good shape.
In an uptrend, you look to buy the dips; in a downtrend, you look to sell strength. In a downtrend, bounces can't be trusted and we look for them to fail, while in an uptrend we look for dip-buyers to jump in quickly and produce robust bounces.
At this point the market is showing signs that the character of the action has shifted and we are now in a downtrend. The major indices are covering that up to a great degree due to strength in defensive stocks, but away from that the average stock has been pounded lately and is in very poor shape technically.
Particularly troublesome is that there is no leadership outside the defensive names. Oil, metals and commodities have been hit hard on strength in the dollar; high-beta big-caps have broken down badly, with Amazon (AMZN) being the latest victim; and small-caps are just terrible across the board.
When stocks are acting like this, the best thing you can do is just stay out of the way and let it play out. Of course the nature of Wall Street is that the brokers and pundits will start barking about how it is a "buying opportunity" and will tell us we need to buy the weakness or we will miss out. As always, their timing will be off and they will cause a lot of folks to be undisciplined with their moves. Institutional Wall Street always wants us to hurry up and buy no matter how bad the action, so stay aware of that.
The good news is that downtrends will eventually lead to a crop of new opportunities. We just have to protect our capital and wait for them to develop. If you can avoid losing money now and keep your accounts as close to highs as possible, you will be far ahead of the game. That should be your goal right now.
We have a mixed start to the day with overseas markets soft, some strength in the dollar and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) cutting its guidance.
No positions. -
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) awarded grant from National Institutes of Health for the development of Novel ER-beta agonists; the grant provides funding of up to $2.4 million
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Citi turustrateeg Tobias Levkovich on aktsiate suhtes skeptilisemaks muutunud ning prognoosib turul lähiajal korrektsiooni.
Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et koos suvise hooajaga ning märkmisväärsete probleemidega USA eelarvedefitsiidi osas ei ole Levkovichi arvates tõenäoline, et aktsiaturg suvel veel põrgata võiks.
The path of least resistance may be to the downside near term. With traditional summer seasonality and some significant uncertainties, especially the US deficit and spending plans plus their impact on long-term discount rates for asset valuation purposes, it does not appear likely that equity markets can bounce higher this summer unless a truly remarkable agreement emanates from Washington on fiscal responsibility. Moreover, economic data tends to ease back in the second half which probably weighs on the mindset of investors. -
April Industrial Production 0.0% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.7% from +0.8%
April Capacity Utilization 76.9% vs 77.7% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 77.0% from 77.4% -
Tobias Levkovichile tahks öelda
Welcome to the Party Pal! -
Teatavasti peaks varsti oma börsidebüüdi tegema sotsiaalvõrgustiku firma LinkedIn, mis võimaldab inimestel ärialaseid kontakte leida ja vahendada.
WSJ kirjutab, et LinkedIni aktsiate vastu on huvi ääretult suur, sest täna hommikul teatas firma, et tõstis oma aktsiate märkimisvahemikku $ 10 võrra ehk $ 42-45 juurde. Kuigi värske IPO RENN on oma börsikarjääri alustanud pehmelt öeldes tagasihoidlikult, ei lase investorid ennast sellest pisiasjast heidutada ja on valmis LinkedIni aktsiate eest rohkem maksma, kui firma ise esialgu küsis. -
LinkedIn'i IPO puhul on kainestav lause:
We expect our revenue growth rate to decline, and, as our costs increase, we may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to sustain our profitability over the long term. -
Tahvelarvutid on kahtlemata arvutimaailmasrevolutsiooni teinud ning muutumas tõsiseks vaenlaseks PC-i segmendile.
Business Insider on toonud välja Jefferies`i analüütiku Peter Miseki prognoosi sellest, kuhu tahvelarvutite turg teel on ning millised trendid seal hetkel valitsevad. Näha võib ka mitmeid huvitavaid graafikuid näiteks sellest, kuidas huvi tahvelarvuti vastu jaotub geograafiliselt ja vanusegruppide kaupa ning kui palju tahvelarvuti kokkupanemine maksma läheb. -
The Fed purchased $6.41 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $21.04 bln
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Nelli Janson
Tahvelarvutid on kahtlemata arvutimaailmasrevolutsiooni teinud ning muutumas tõsiseks vaenlaseks PC-i segmendile.
Paistab, et enterprise maailmas nad mingit erilist ohtu läpparile (veel?) ei kujuta, 90% omanikest kasutavad tahvleid kodus ja ainult 8% tööl.
El Reg tegi just mingi uurimuse oma IT tüüpidest lugejate seas ja seal oli selline kokkuvõte: "IT professionals think the importance of full functional laptops at work will increase in the next three years: in other words tablets are not replacing laptops anytime soon. Or smartphones: "while tablets may play a critical role in some scenarios, they are likely to represent a ‘nice to have’ third device for more general professional use, at least in the short to medium term."
HPQ-le (ja Lenovole, Dellile) oleks selline asjadekäik meeltmööda arvatavasti.... -
Kindlasti ei ole tegemist tahvelarvutite näol (veel) tegemist fataalse ohuga PC-le, aga selle segmendi tiibu kärbib küll ja kui nüüd ettevõtte seisukohast võtta, siis hetkel on raha siiski mobiilsete seadmete ja tahvelarvutite turul ning PC-de marginaalid on üsna õhukeseks muutunud.
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Kui tabletid pole just päris kiiresti mööduv fad siis ikkagi on keeruline ette kujutada miks peaks tunde tööpäevas ekraani ees veetev kodanik loobuma oma 14 - 32 tollisest pildist ja siirduma pisikese ekraani kasutajaks...isegi kui kogu maailma soft väiksele ekraanile ümber kohandatakse.
Samas oleks huvitav teada kuidas suurte arvutitootjate toodang jaguneb, palju kodu- palju kontoriarvuteid. Erinevate windowsi põlvkondade (xp, vista,7) Home jms. mitte Prof. versioonide turuosa järgi saaks ehk arvutada aga seda datat pole.... -
PC-de müügi kohta Euroopas tuli just täna selline pressiteade
- PC shipments in Western Europe totaled 14.7 million units in the first quarter of 2011, a decline of 17.8 percent from the same period in 2010
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- In Western Europe, consumers continued to hold back disposable spending on PCs, or they spent it on other devices like media tablets. This resulted in extending current PC life cycles. PC shipments in the consumer market declined 25 percent year-on-year, with the mini-notebook segment hit especially hard.
/.../
HP maintained its No. 1 position in Western Europe despite a 25 percent decline in mobile PCs. Both Acer’s and Dell’s shipment performances were considerably lower than the market average. -
Google ehk ettevõte, mille bilansis on ca $35 miljardit vaba raha teatas eile, et plaanib tõsta $2.97 miljardit kapitali emiteerides uusi võlakirju CP võlgade tasumiseks ning äritegevuseks. Miks, kui vaba raha on piisavalt? Suur osa bilansis olevast rahast ei ole USAs ning kui raha Ameerikasse toodaks, siis tuleks selle pealt makse maksta. Ehk teisisõnu võlakirju emiteerides prognoositakse, et maksud tulevikus langevad ning seega plaanitaksegi hoiduda enneaegsetest “kingitustest” valitsusele. Kuigi Google krediidireting on Aa2 (Moody’s), siis võlakirjade tulususe määrad on võrdlemisi madalad - GOOG emiteerib 3 erinevat võlakirja: (1) 3-aastane võlakiri 1.25% (Treasury + 33 bp), (2) 5-aastane võlakiri 2.125% (Treasury + 43 bp) ja (3) 10-aastane võlakiri 3.625% (Treasury + 58 bp). Võttes aga arvesse, et Google earnings yield on 6.42% ehk oluliselt kõrgem, kui võlakirjade tulusus, siis õige otsus ilmselt olekski võlakirju emiteerida. Teisisõnu, kes hindab Google prespektiive heaks, siis ideena võiks osta GOOG aktsiaid ning müüa lühikeseks võlakirju.
Google aktsiagraafik:
