Börsipäev 20. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänane börsipäev ei too ühtegi olulist makrouudist, mistõttu püsib tähelepanu IMF-i uue juhi valimisega seotud arengutel ja Kreekal.
Aasia turud on liikunud üsna erisuunalisel, USA futuurid püsivad marginaalses miinuses ja Euroopa tõotab avaneda 0,4% kõrgemal. -
Teatavasti on juba paar kuud olnud kauplemine peatatud Hiina ettevõtte China MediaExpress (CCME) aktsiatega. Nüüd on Streetinsideri veebilehe vahendusel teada, et CCME jätkab kauplemist alternatiivbörsil (pink sheets).
Kauplemine on peatatud veel mitmete teiste Hiina päritolu ettevõtete aktsiatega ja tõenäoliselt ootab neid sama saatus.
Mõned näited lisaks: China Agritech (Nasdaq: CAGC), ShengdaTech (Nasdaq: SDTH), Duoyuan Global Water Inc. (DGW), China Integrated Energy (Nasdaq: CBEH), Wonder Auto Technology (Nasdaq: WATG), Subaye, Inc. (Nasdaq: SBAY), Puda Coal (Nasdaq: PUDA), Universal Travel (NYSE: UTA) and Longtop Financial (NYSE: LFT). -
Huvitav artikkel eile Guggenheim Partnersilt. Taylor Rule'i järgides peaks tõenäosus, et Fed aasta lõpu poole QE3 korraldab, olema päris suur. Kõik see on muidugi tinglik, aga ei oska ka vastu vaielda sellele.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/55843024/Guggenheim-Partners-Market-Perspectives-The-Case-for-More-Monetary-Elixir -
Kuigi S&P500 püsib oma viimase aja tippude juures, siis USA väikeinvestorid on muutunud nädalaga USA aktsiate järgmise kuue väljavaate suhtes varasemast veelgi skeptilisemaks. Nende investorite osakaal, kes usuvad turgude tõusu, kahanes 4,1 protsendipunkti võrra 26,7% peale, mis on nõrgim tase alates 2010. aasta augustist (ajalooline keskmine 39%). Pessimistide osakaal kasvas seevastu 5,8 protsendipunkti võrra 41,3%ni, mis on kõrgeim tase alates mullu septembrist (ajalooline keskmine 30%). Neutraalse vaatega investorite osakaal kahanes 1,7 pp 32,0%-ni.
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Erko, kas me saame sellest välja lugeda seda, et väikeinvestor on behind the curve nagu augustis?
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Kuuldavasti kavatseb Prada Hong Kongis varsti IPO teha. IPOde arv nüüd kenasti tõusmas, mis pakub investeerimispankadele tööd. USA pankadest on Prada IPOga seotud Goldman Sachs.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RRGB +10.8%, (also hearing tier 1 firm upgrade), OPXT +9.6% (light volume), FL +8.9%, DANG +8.5%, CRM +7.5%, ZUMZ +3.5% (ticking higher).
M&A news: BKS +33.6% (Barnes & Noble Board receives $17/share bid from Libery Media to buy the company).
Other news: ACOR +21.4% (issues statement on CHMP Positive Opinion on Marketing Authorization Application for FAMPYRA in Europe), AEZS +16.9% (early strength attributed to positive newsletter mention), STEC +4.6% (CEO and Pres bought 438,019 shares at $14.48-14.80 ), BP +3.7% (receives $1.065 bln settlement with Moex Offshore; will add to gulf claims facility; initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital), APC +4.7% and RIG +1.9% (lifting on BP news).
Analyst comments: ZLC +13.3% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), S +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), BEXP +2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), TSN +0.8% (ticking higher; upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GPS -17.1% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), ARO -12.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), ANN -6.2%, NDSN -5.4%, ARUN -5.2%, INTU -4.5% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity), KIRK -1.8% (light volume).
A few financial related names showing weakness: LYG -2.3%, DB -1.6%, BBVA -1.6%, STD -1.3%.
Other news: LDK -8% (announces postponement of proposed offering of senior notes), BPOP -7.6% (announces termination on negotiations to sell portfolio of non-performing construction and commercial real estate loans), BPI -4.5% (discloses it received a subpoena from NY AG), IMGN -4.1% (files mixed securities shelf offering for an indeterminate amount), AEO -4.0% (lower with ARO), OFC -3.4% (plans to sell 4,000,000 newly issued common shares in an underwritten public offering), CSR -1.7% (plans to voluntarily delist and to suspend its securities from listing on NASDAQ Dubai), ARMH -1.4% (still checking), SI -1.3% (must pay nearly $1 bln following arbitration ruling related to nuclear jv), YOKU -1.2% (priced a 12.31 mln ADS offering at $48.18/ADS).
Analyst comments: LRY -2.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), TTWO -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Cowen), PCS -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), PDCO -0.4% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS). -
Timing Is Everything
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/20/2011 8:28 AM EDT
"There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune."
--William Shakespeare
The market has managed a low-volume bounce over the last couple of days, which has muddled the big picture. On one hand it looks like an oversold bounce that should not be trusted. But on the other hand, it has the look of another V-shaped bounce that has been so prevalent in this market. We have been mostly dancing around to the U.S. dollar as market players contemplate whether the bulls can pull off another quick and easy recovery. With the weaker dollar yesterday the bulls made some progress after early nervousness, but it was not an aggressive day of accumulation.
This morning we have the opposite in the early action. The dollar is stronger and that is adding pressure. We had a couple of weak earnings reports in the retail sector but Salesforce.com (CRM) is attracting some momentum money this morning.
It's rather wishy-washy action with a slight negative bias. I find that the best approach for dealing with this is to not have strong opinions but to stay very watchful and be ready to react quickly. The most important thing you can do is to have a plan.
There are many market players who prefer to approach the market with a thesis. They have a bullish or bearish scenario in mind, position themselves and then hope it plays out. They try to anticipate what is going to happen. Sometimes they will have it right, and sometimes they won't. One thing you can count on is that the timing will never be exact.
I prefer to approach the market differently. I want to stay as open minded as possible and then react aggressively as conditions change. I don't think anyone can predict market moves all that well. Sometimes we'll be lucky and the timing will work out nicely, but generally it won't.
The biggest challenge in the market is always going to be accurate timing. It isn't a mystery that trends will shift. The million-dollar question is: when? You can be correctly bullish or bearish, but if your timing is off by just a little, you may not profit at all. There is no way to consistently time the market accurately. But if you react rather than anticipate, you are likely to be much more in tune with the action.
Right now, I have a bearish bias. I'm suspicious of this oversold bounce and believe that the chances of a failed bounce and a retest of recent lows are quite high. Although that is my bias, I'm not loading up on shorts and avoiding long trades. I'm waiting to see some proof from the market that my thesis is correct so that I can react more aggressively. If the market persists in further upside I'm not going to fight it or argue with it. I'll take some long trades and go with the flow. On the other hand if the bearish scenario develops, as I suspect it might, then I already know what actions I'm looking to take.
The big drawback of a reactive approach to the market is that you need to stay very vigilant and be ready to act fast. At times you are likely to be whipsawed as the market pulls some fake-out moves. It can be quite liberating, however, not to be dogmatic and fight the price action that you don't agree with. You are never going to win an argument with the market and it can be quite beneficial not even to try, no matter how certain you are that it is wrong.
We have some weakness this morning on talk about a slowing German economy. That is hitting the euro and causing some selling. It is very muddled out there in the early going and we'll just have to see how things develop.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. -
Norra meediaväljaanne NZZ Online kirjutab, et Norra on otsustanud peatada kõik abiraha maksed Kreekale. Google Translate abiga:
Norway will first stop all further financial aid payments to the highly indebted Greece. would reason that Greece does not fulfill its obligations descendants, the Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on Thursday before the Parliament.
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USA punase börsipäeva alguse puhul võib esile tuua eile börsile tulnud LinkedIn'i (LNKD), mis kaupleb täna jälle 100 dollarist kõrgemal. LinkedIn'i kosmilist hinnataset oleme ka siin varem esile toonud, kuid eks iga hype’i puhul leitakse uusi meetodeid, kuidas aktsiatele väärtust anda. Nt FT kirjutab, et LinkedIn’i aktsia on väärt: "more than $100 per user“. Tundub klassikaline „old valuations no longer apply“ jutt, mis hästi ei lõppe.
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Saksamaa keskpanga uus juht Jens Weidmann on sõna võtmas:
GREEK BANKS WILL BE CUT OFF FROM FUNDING, ECB MAY NO LONGER ACCEPT GREEK DEBT ON EXTENSION.
REPROFILED DEBT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ECB TO ACCEPT; GREEK BANKS WOULD BE CUT OFF FROM FUNDING; FURTHER RESCUE AID SHOULDN'T BE ASSUMED. -
Kreeka ja Saksamaa 10-aastaste võlakirjade tulususte erinevusel uus rekord:
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Fitch downgrades Greece to 'B+' and places on Rating Watch Negative; reflects scale of challenge in implementing radical fiscal and structural reform program
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Fitch: EXTENSION OF GREECE BOND MATURITIES WOULD BE DEFAULT
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Euro kaupleb 1,14% madalamal $1,4145 juures.
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Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda intervjuud Silicon Valley guruks kutsutud Steve Blankiga, kes on olnud Silicon Valley`s kaheksa alustava firma asutaja või kaasasutaja. Täna on ta tegev peamiselt ülikoolides õppejõuna.
Siin paar olulisemat mõtet intevjuust:
Blanki arvates tähistab LinkedIn (LNDK) IPO mulli algust ja see saab tema sõnul suur olema.
Microsoft on tema arvates alla käimas ning hiljemalt kuue kuu pärast seisab ettevõte silmitsi suurte kahjumitega. Blanki sõnul on Steve Ballmer CEO-na täielikult läbikukkunud ning juhatusele võib ette heita, et nad pole temast ikka veel vabanenud. Ühtlasi pakub ta välja, et Nokia ära ostmine ning Elopi CEO-ks nimetamine võiks olla lahendus.
Täispikka intervjuud saab lugeda siit. -
Solarite sektoris on sel nädalal päris korralik aadri laskimine käinud - keskmiselt -5% päevas, kui eile välja arvata ...
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No solar on ju mull kah.
Pole ime. -
The Fed purchased $6.94 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $14.88 bln
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Eilses börsipäevas oli juttu LNKD lühikeseks müügist. Tuleb välja, et parimad meist siiski saavad seda juba ka lühikeseks müüa:
Doug Kass
game on... i just shorted LinkedIN at 102 -
LNKD praegune hind on ikka täielik mull!
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Eile andis kunagine USA senaator Alan Simpson vägagi avameelse intervjuu. Tema poolt öeldut ei tee huvitavaks mitte fakt, et Simpson on kunagine vabariiklane (mis teeks intervjuu selgelt ühepoolseks), vaid see, et tegemist on ka Obama poolt loodud National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform esimehega. Täispikka intervjuud saab lugeda siit.
Katkend intervjuust: "Yeah, and we never had a single witness to tell us that we could grow our way out of this. In fact, the consensus was you couldn’t grow your way out of this horrible situation with double digit growth for 20 years. So, you know with growth at two, three, or four percent, obviously it’s never going to happen. And the debt is fourteen trillion, three hundred billion and the deficit will be one trillion seven hundred billion, and people don't pay attention because they can't make a distinction between a billion and a trillion. Wherever you hear the word now that we should cut a billion here or there, change the “B” to a “TR” because thats the only way we’ll get out of the hole." -
Kuigi iga teine finantsleht tembeldab LNKD aasta IPOks, siis paraku pean ühinema skeptikutega, kes vähemast ettevõte aktsiale hiigeltulevikku ei ennusta (siinkohal tuleb eristada, et ettevõte ning ettevõtte aktsia on kaks erinevat asja).
Kui nüüd rääkida aga nii-öelda “aasta IPOdest,” siis vähemalt varasem praktika näitab, et selliste ettevõtete aktsiatega on pikaajalise investeeringuna raske kasumit teenida. Dealogic on kokku pannud nimekirja ettevõtetest, mille aktsia hind on esimese päevaga kahekordistunud (kokku on neid 28). Nimekiri ulatub 1998. aastasse ehk seal kajastuvad ka dot.com “buumi” ettevõtted.
Tulemused: 17 ettevõtte aktsiad kauplesid aasta pärast allpool IPO hinda, 3 ettevõtte aktsiad kauplesid aasta pärast IPO hinnast kõrgemal ning ülejäänute aktsiad kauplesid aasta pärast küll IPO hinnast kõrgemal, kuid esimese kauplemispäeva sulgemishinnast madalamal. Kuna LNKD aktsia sulgus pärast esimest kauplemispäeva ca $94 tasemel, siis ajaloolise statistika kohaselt on tõenäosus, et LNKD kaupleb aasta pärast üle $94 vägagi väike.
