Börsipäev 27. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Kuigi USA makro oli pigem pettumustvalmistav, suutsid ostjad suhteliselt tagasihoidliku käibe juures indeksid siiski kergesse plussi vedada. Kuna ameeriklased tähistavad esmaspäeval Memorial Day’d ning ees ootamas pikem nädalavahetus, siis üldjuhul kannatab seetõttu ka reedene kauplemisaktiivsus.
Tänaseid makrouudiseid jäävad domineerima sõnumid USA-st, kus kell 15.30 oodatakse aprillikuu isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste ning tarbijahinnaindeksi muutust. Kell 16.55 raporteeritakse mai Michigani sentimendi lõplik näit ja kell 17.00 pooleliolevate kinnisvaratehingute arv. Euroopa sessiooni ajal võiks mõningast huvi pakkuda Saksamaa maikuu esmane inflatsiooninäit.
Aasia on kaubelnud öösel erisuunaliselt (Hiina ja Jaapan punases, muud riigid plussis), USA ja Euroopa futuurid (DAX ja CAC +1%) viitavad positiivsele päeva algusele. -
Danske on oma värskemas analüüsis tõdemas, et majanduskasvu aeglustumisele viitavad jooksvad indikaatorid on põhjustamas vaid ajutist hirmu ning aasta teises pooles peaks USA majandus taas tugevamatel jalgadel seisma. Eelseisvale pehmemale perioodile viitavad näiteks suurim kuine kukkumine ISM teenuste indeksi uutes tellimustes alates 1997. aastast ning lisaks mitmed regionaalsed töötleva tööstuse näitajad.
Kaks peamist mõjutegurit on olnud nafta ja Jaapani kriis, mis surusid SKT kasvu allapoole trendi ning tekitasid tavapäratult suure erinevuse küsitluste ja tegeliku data vahel. Viimati oli SKT ja ISM divergents nõnda suur 2005. aastal ja ka siis tuli ISM kiiresti alla suurendades hirmu majanduse aeglustumise või koguni languse ees. Danske hinnangul on tarbimiskulutuste muster olnud viimasel ajal siiski suhteliselt tugev, nafta tulnud veidi allapoole, tööturg taastumas ning majapidamised laenamise vastu taas huvi üles näitamas, mis peaks eratarbimist lähikvartalite jooksul edasi elavdama. Pikemalt võib lugeda analüüsi siit -
Euroopa pangandussektori aktsiad on olnud viimastel kuudel Euroopa börsidel suurimad kukkujad. Bloombergi Europe 500 pankade ja finantsteenuste pakkujate indeksilt on näha, et sektor on lähenemas eelmise aasta põhjadele, kaubeldes 0.9 P/B’ga.
BE500 BNK & FIN SERV IX:
Citigroupi hinnangul kajastub Euroopa pankade aktsiates piisavalt negatiivset ja sektori väljavaade tõstetakse „overweight“ peale:
„With elevated levels of sovereign risk, stress test pains, regulatory/capital concerns and hefty underperformance, we see the near-term risk-reward for European banks as improved now compared to three months ago“
Citi analüütikutele meeldivad Euroopa pankadest enim Standard Chartered, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas ja DnB Nor ASA. -
Eelmisele kommentaarile veel lisaks üks vanem graafik, kust näha, et Euroopa pangandussektori ralliks oleks vaja PIGSi ümber kerkinud pingete vaibumist:
Allikas: Morgan Stanley -
Fitch on muutumas murelikuks Jaapani suure võlakoormuse pärast:
Fitch revises Japan's sovereign rating to negative from stable -
Oppenheimer avaldas eile analüüsi, milles prognoositakse Q2 lõpuks USA Treasury 10-aastase võlakirja tulususe määraks 2.8%. Olgu öeldud, et hetkel on võlakirja tulususe määr 3.06%.
Kommentaar Oppenheimerilt:
“The demand for government securities is massive and overwhelming, especially as accounts are competing directly with the Fed for Treasury paper,” -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RUE +15.4%, MRVL +8.9%.
M&A news: AATI +53.8% (Advanced Analogic Tech to be bought by Skyworks for a nominal price of $6.13 per share), SEAC +21.3% (trading notably higher on takeover speculation).
Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +2.3%, IBN +1.8%, RBS +1.8% (initiated with Buy at Societe Generale), UBS +1.6%, STD +1.4%, BCS +1.3% (initiated with Buy at Societe Generale), HBC +1% (initiated with Buy at Societe Generale), .
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +2.3%, AU +1.8%, GOLD +1.6%, AG +1.6%, CDE +1.5%, SLW +1.4%, RIO +1.3%, GOLD +1.2%, SLV +1%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +2.0%, PTR +1.8%, E +1.8%, RIG +1.6%, SD +1.5%.
A few European drug/pharma names ticking higher: SNY +1.7%, NVS +1.1%, AZN +0.8%.
Other news: DRC +3.8% (will replace AMB Property in the S&P MidCap 400), CVS +3.8% (higher following PBM peer MHS contract loss), LDK +2.4% (signed a module supply contract with a leading Italy-based solar systems integrator), HBHC +1.3% (will replace PacWest Bancorp in the S&P MidCap 400 index), AMB +0.7% (will replace ProLogis in the S&P 500 index), COST +1.1% (light volume, Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), .
Analyst comments: LXRX +4.9% (initiated with a Buy at Needham), VHC +2.2% (initiated with an Outperform at Cowen ), ZAGG +2% (target raised to $18 from $14.50 at Northland Securities - based on invisibleSHIELD attachment rates at Carphone Warehouses). -
April PCE Prices- Core M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
April Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
April Personal Spending +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus
April PCE Prices Y/Y +2.2%; PCE Core Prices Y/Y +1.0% -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GMAN -25.5%, BCSI -8.8%, PRGN -4.3% (thinly traded), OVTI -4.2%, GLUU -3.9% (light volume), SDRL -1.1%.
Other news: MHS -13.4% (discloses Blue Cross Blue Shield Association intends to transition to an alternate provider), CNIT -12.2% (announces resignation of CFO), CLSN -7.9% (announces $8.6 mln equity offering of common stock and warrants), BWP -3.7% (announces public offering of 6 mln common shares), TTM -1.6% (still checking).
Analyst comments: WY -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ITRI -3% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), AFL -1.2% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade). -
BofA Merrill Lynch liitub täna JP Morgani ja Goldman Sachsiga, langetades USA teise kvartali SKT prognoose
We have just adjusted our U.S. GDP forecasts, in particular slicing our second-quarter GDP forecast from 2.8% to just 2% on disruptions to global supply chains and more lasting shocks from higher oil prices, fiscal tightening and slower growth overseas. This takes our 2011 forecast to the lower end of consensus at just 2.4% from 2.5%. Our interest rate forecasts have also come down, with our 10-year yield forecast taken down by 40 basis points, ending the year at 3.6%. Our Fed call is unchanged at September 2012. -
Baird analüüsimaja on täna väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Itron (ITRI) kohta.
Baird alandab ITRI reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale koos $ 44 hinnasihiga.
After attending ITRI's analyst day, we are downgrading ITRI to an Underperform and are reducing our price target to $44. We no longer believe ITRI has time to secure an adequate volume of new contracts to make up for the revenue shortfall in 2012 as its major AMI deployments reach completion. Additionally, we continue to see a risk of write-downs/restructuring costs associated with its large manufacturing footprint. Furthermore, its pending convert creates overhang.
Analüütikud ei usu, et firmal on enam aega uusi lepinguid hankida selleks, et käibelangust 2012. aastal mingis osas kompenseerida. Lisaks eelnevale näevad analüütikud ka riski restruktureerimisega kaasnevate kulude osas.
No clear plan outlined for offsetting 2012 revenue drop-off – presents significant risk. Management declined to comment on its strategy for addressing the revenue shortfall in 2012 as ITRI's major AMI deployments reach completion. We no longer believe ITRI has adequate time to fill the gap.
Analüütikute päeval keeldus juhtkond selgitamast oma strateegiat 2012. aasta käibelanguse osas, kuna mitmed suured lepingud lõpevad.
ITRI will reevaluate its manufacturing footprint - shutdowns/restructuring could present risk in upcoming quarters. ITRI currently has over 50 manufacturing facilities globally to address regional markets. This may present risk of write-downs/restructuring costs at several facilities as ITRI attempts to streamline itsm operations.
Water a major facet of long-term growth plan - mix shift could put pressure on margin. ITRI is targeting growth in its water segment from $450M in 2010 to $1,35B in 2015. As we estimate water metes to carry lower margins than electricity/gas, we believe the mix shift could pressure margins.
Ettevõtte plaanib kasvatada oma veearvestite segmenti lähiaastatel ja analüütikute sõnul on selles segmendis marginaalid madalamad kui elektri-või gaasiarvestite segmendis ja see plaan võib lõppkokkuvõttes survestada ettevõtte marginaale.
Tegemist pole väga tugeva calliga, aga Baird analüütikud ei usu, et firmal õnnestub ajanappuse tõttu oma järgmise aasta käibelangusega enam midagi ette võtta, mis võib investorites tekitada soovi ITRI aktsiaid mitte enam hoida. Kauplemise seisukohast pole samuti tegemist kerge olukorraga, sest tuleb arvestada võimalusega, et aktsia võib avanemisel põrgata.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia ligi 3% miinuspoolel, $ 51,90 kandis. -
Normal Is as Normal Does
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/27/2011 9:06 AM EDT
"The only normal people are the ones you don't know very well."
--Alfred Adler
The market managed to put together a very mild oversold bounce Thursday, but trading is likely to slow substantially today ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. We often have a positive bias to thin holiday trading, especially if you can identify the stocks favored by the hot money, but it can be very difficult to be aggressive other than for very short time frames when the action has the risk of shifting very fast.
Adding to the challenge is a big picture that isn't all the promising. The market bounced back a bit after some severe selling, but it has not been very energetic and you have to wonder if we are setting up for another failed bounce. We've had two failed bounces in May, which has put us firmly in a downtrend, and that means the danger of another one and a deeper downtrend has increased. The momentum is to the downside and we need to keep that in mind.
One positive the market has going for it right now is that sentiment has become quite negative. Many market players are expecting a very slow summer and a more severe correction. That is a positive because it means that it is likely they have already done some selling and have idle cash that can support the market.
As I discussed in my opening post yesterday, I see little reason to be very trusting at this point about the market's ability to pull off another V-shaped bounce. It has been the norm but was probably a function of the artificial pressures created by Quantitative Easing and computerized trading. With QE2 drawing to an end, there isn't the same level of cash sloshing around looking for a home.
Another thing that has changed, probably as a function of QE2 coming to an end, is that the U.S. dollar has been stronger recently. That changes the "carry trade" and a variety of other of other things that have been supportive of the market. If the dollar continues to rally against the euro, this market is going to have a much harder time bouncing back like it has in the past.
I found it interesting to see comments yesterday about how the market action had returned to "normal." As Alan Farley noted in the Columnist Conversation, this market hasn't felt normal in years. Perhaps it was "normal" to perma-bulls who always expect us to go straight up, but the V-shaped bounces, the consistent dip buying, the lack of traditional technical action, the thin trading volume and a host of other things has made for a market that very few traders would consider to be "normal."
The market is probably never really "normal," but what would really be a return to normality is if we had a greater variety of action rather than movement in one direction only. If we had more failed bounces and downtrends that lasted for a while rather than quick and immediate recoveries as if nothing happened, then the market would be like it was before the big crash. As long as the Fed is printing money, the market is not going to act like it did a few years ago, but that may actually be changing if QE2 winds down.
We should have a challenging day of trading on very thin volume. Stay opportunistic, keep time frames short and don't be too trusting. The market is still in a downtrend and we need to respect that. -
SanDisk (SNDK) lifting in recent trade; Hearing attributed to renewed M&A rumor
-
May Michigan Sentiment- final 74.3 vs 72.4 Briefing.com consensus; prelim 72.4
-
March Pending Home Sales M/M -11.6% vs -1.4% Briefing.com consensus
-
Tänasest saab kauplema hakata ka LNKD-i optsioonidega ja Zerohedge vahendusel võib lugeda, et kõige aktiivsemad on $ 110-i septembri müügioptsioonid ja $ 85-i veebruari ostuopstioonind.
LinkedIn $LNKD Options Begin Trading; Sept. $110 Puts, Feb. $85 Calls Most Active -
Companhia Vale do Rio (VALE): Hearing upgraded at UBS
-
Kui hiljuti tõstis Bernsteini analüütik RIMM-i aktsia reitingu Hoia peale öeldes, et siit enam asjad halvemaks minna ei saa, siis täna ütleb oma arvamuse Jefferies analüütik Peter Misek, et enne, kui midagi ei parane, võib olukord halveneda küll.
Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et Misek prognoosib RIMM-i jaoks jätkuvaid toote hilinemisi (Blackberry OS 7) ja tema sõnul peab juhtkond, aktsepteerima madalamaid marginaale või lihtsalt leppima väiksema müügiga, sest edasimüüjad on juba mures aina kasvavate/vananevate varude pärast. -
ITRI töötas täna oodatust isegi paremini. Aktsia avanes $ 51,99 ja tegi peale avanemist ka väikese hüppe üles $ 52,25 kanti ning on sealt alates üsna sirgjoones allapoole kukkunud, kaubeldes hetkel $ 49,85 kandis ehk 6,6% miinuspoolel.
-
K-V Pharmaceutical (KV A): Orbimed discloses 10.53% stake in amended 13G filing, up from 6.55% on 4/8
