Börsipäev 1. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Vaatamata sellele, et eile avaldatud makro kujunes mitmel pool oodatust nõrgemaks, siis turud on suutnud seda üllatavalt hästi seedida. Mõni hetk tagasi IMF teatas küll, et ei kavatse maksta oma osa Kreeka praeguse päästeprogrammi viiendast rahaeraldisest, kuid järgmisest 60-70 mld EUR päästeprogrammist võetakse siiski osa. EUR/USD kaotas selle peale hetkeks jalgealuse, kuid on nüüdseks taas taastunud ning futuuridki säilitavad hetkel positiivsuse.
-
USA valitsusel on seoses võlalimiidiga kaks võimalust. Seda tuleb kas tõsta või hoopis ära kaotada. Kuna teine võimalus ei ole väga realistlik, siis tulebki seda tõsta. Eile hääletas esindajatekoda 318 vastuhääle ja 97 poolthäälega seadusemuudatuse vastu. Nagu prognoositud, siis 100% vabariiklastest hääletas seaduse vastu.
-
Üks pettumust valmistanud uudis tuli eile Taanist, kus statistikaamet kinnitas riigi esimese kvartali SKT QoQ languseks -0,5%,kui konsensus ootas hoopis sama suurt kasvu. Kuna sisemajanduse kogutoodangu muutus oli negatiivne ka neljandas kvartalis, siis on Taani majandust tabanud taas retsessioon ning tähelepanu liigub jälle stiimulite vajadusele. Danske on sellest oma analüüsis kirjutanud pikemalt siin.
In particular, the effect on GDP growth from the public sector surprised in Q1, with public consumption down by 0.8% q/q and public investment plummeting 20%. This was much more than the government had planned – indeed, economic policy is being tightened far too much. This is not desirable, considering the cyclical economic conditions. Without such a sharp fall in public spending, GDP would probably have expanded in Q1.
However, public spending was not the only disappointment. Consumer spending also fell short of expectations, declining more than we had forecast.
To top it all, business investment showed a surprisingly large fall. Indeed, the only component that moved the economy in the right direction was net exports. However, developments in both investment and exports were affected by the extraordinary completion and export of an oil rig. -
Lisaks Hiina PMI indeksile, millele Mikk vastavas foorumis juba viitas, avalikustatakse täna samu näitajaid ka Euroopas ja USA-s. Täpsemalt kell 11.00 teatatakse eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse maikuu lõplik PMI, kell 11.30 Suurbritannia oma ja kell 17.00 USA ISM näit. Reedest USA tööjõuraportit silmas pidades on täna lisaks radaril ADP küsitlus (kell 15.15).
-
Euroala töötleva tööstuse PMI maikuu lõplik number oodatust veidi nõrgem: 54,6 punkti vs prognoositud 54,8.
-
UK PMI viitamas samuti majandusaktiivuse vaibumisele, olles mais 52,1 punkti vs prognoositud 54,1. Kuigi küsitlused ei pruugi päris üks-ühele peegeldada hard datat, siis suhteliselt arvestatava indikatsiooni peaks siiski andma
-
Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et Yahoo (YHOO) ja Hiina päritolu internetifirma Alibaba Group Holding, millest 40% kuulub Yahoole on saavutanud mai keskel segadust tekitanud Alipay müügi asjus kokkuleppe.
Teatavasti müüs Alibaba CEO Ma (endale) mai keskel maha Yahoo teadmata Alipay, mis tekitas investorite seas paanikat, kuna tehing viitas sellele,et YHOO juhtkond ei suuda oma Aasia varasid hallata ega kontrollida.
Paraku pole kokkuleppe tingimused teada ja seetõttu pole ka kindel, kas Yahoo saavutas enda jaoks kasuliku lahenduse. -
Citi täna skandinaavia pankade kallal:
Swedbank AB downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup
Danske Bank A/S downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup -
BofA Merrill Lynchi analüütikud tunnevad muret praeguse varaklasside suure korrelatsiooni pärast, samal ajal kui volatiilsus langeb (ajalooliselt on korrelatsioonid keskmisest kõrgemad olnud just volatiilsetel perioodidel). Sellises keskkonnas peituvad riskid, mis jäävad paljudel ilmselt märkamata:
* It’s all one trade. When cross-asset correlations are high, it means that many investors are essentially in one trade, even though they may not be aware of it. As a result, there may be more crowded trades than most investors realize. If investors exit at the same time, market movements could be chaotic.* Focus on one risk factor only. High risk-on/risk-off correlation implies that investors are increasingly focused on a single risk factor that affects all asset classes. Although our correlation analysis is silent about the nature of what this factor may be, we suspect it is related to global growth risks. The focus on a single factor, however, suggests that investors may underestimate other risks. If another major risk factor suddenly arises, for example something related to the US debt ceiling, we could see a great increase in market volatilities. (pikemalt saab lugeda siit) -
May ADP Employment Change 38K vs 170K Briefing.com consensus
-
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: PVH +3.1%, GAME +2.2%, M +1.3%.
M&A news: UN +1% (early strength attributed to M&A speculation).
Other news: TLVT +15.0% (Abengoa agrees to sale of its 40% stake in Telvent to Schneider Electric; Schneider Electric to acquire remaining shares for $40.00 per share), GLNG +6.1% (still checking), HCP +5.0% (Brookdale Senior Living to Acquire Horizon Bay Retirement Living; Signs Agreement with HCP for Joint Venture RIDEA and Lease Transactions; sees FY11 CFFO of $2.25-2.35; deals will benefit FY11-13 CFFO), LOGI +3.2% (still checking), ERIC +2.4% (may be attributed to an Australian contract worth AUD1.1 bln to supply wireless broadband to remote regions), TC +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: BRCM +0.8% (Broadcom upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura), BLK +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), ESV +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AMSC -11.1%.
M&A news: MEE -1.1% (Massey Energy reports Alpha Natural Resources is expected to complete its acquisition on June 1, 2011).
Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.8%, IRE -3.7%, BCS -2.9%, STD -2.1%, BBVA -2%, HBC -1%.
Other news: FMD -16.7% (still checking), LNG -9.4% (announces public offering of 8.7 mln shares of common stock), FR -3.8% (priced an 8.4 mln share common stock offering at $12.15/share), ARR -3.8% (announces proposed public offering of 16 mln shares of common stock), NRGY -3.5% (announces a 9 mln common unit offering), ACI -1.9% (commences public offering of 44 mln shares of common stock).
Analyst comments: NOK -9.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, downgraded to Hold at Canaccord Genuity, downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at WestLB, downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), SQNS -8.2% (downgraded to Hold at Needham based on valuation), HNZ -2.2% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman), TIF -2.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), ASH -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), VZ -0.7% (downgraded to Sell at Hudson Square), TE 154.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Maquarie). -
21Vianet (VNET)
21Vianet initiated with Outperform at William Blair
21Vianet initiated with Outperform at Pacific Crest
21Vianet initiated with Overweight at Piper Jaffray, tgt $14 -
Kuigi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse langust oodati, siis tegelikkuses kujunes kukkumine arvatust isegi suuremaks ning hetkel on turg täiendavat müügisurvet saamas. SPY -0,6%
May ISM Manufacturing 53.5 vs 57.6 Briefing.com consensus; April 60.4
April Construction Spending M/M +0.4% vs -0.5% Briefing.com consensus -
Goldman Sachs peale ISM raportit:
We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously.
Konsensus on +185,000 -
Maikuu autouudiseid ka:
General Motors (GM) Auto Sales Down 1.2% in May -
OREX on heade uudiste ootuses täna plusspoolel kauplemas, sest firma teatas hommikul reedel toimuvast konverentskõnest ja teadaanne on seotud nende ravimi Contravega.
OREX To announce regulatory update for CONTRAVE on Friday, June 3rd before the markets open
- The announcement will be followed by a live webcast and conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time
Aktsia hetkel kauplemas 14,5% plusspoolel. -
Paljud näivad eeldavalt, et OREXi teade on positiivne, aga see ei pruugi sugugi nii olla. Ma kardan, et Orexigenil tuleb siiski uus safety study teha, ükskõik mis moosi nad ka FDA-le ajasid. Ja see tähendab vähemalt 12 kuud viivitust. Konkurendid ARNA ja VVUS on lubanud FDAle uued avaldused viia 4Q 2011, aga kui uus uuring tuleb, siis OREXil oleks avaldus FDA laual mitte varem kui 2Q 2012. Mis ajaks võib ühel või mõlemal konkurendil juba approval käes olla.
Teine, sugugi mitte vähemtähtis moment konverentsikõnes on see, mis Takedast räägitakse. Kui varem käis Takeda nagu refrään igast Orexigeni pressiteatest läbi, siis viimasel ajal on teda väga napilt mainitud. See võib vabalt tähendada seda, et Takeda on enda jaoks Contrave projekti külmutanud. Mis oleks ühtaegu bad news & bad publicity. -
Expedia (EXPE) jumps $0.30 off lows on increased volume
Hearing move attributed to reports of Groupon partnership. -
The BMW Group in the U.S. reported May sales of 26,452 vehicles, an increase of 19.7% from the 22,092 vehicles sold in the same month a year ago
