Börsipäev 20. juuni
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Eurotsooni rahandusministrid on pärast eilset kohtumist otsustanud maksta välja kehtiva laenupaketi järgmise rahaeraldise, kuid USA indeksite 0,7%line miinus ja 0,5% madalamal alustanud Euroopa turud viitavad sellele, et päris rahul tulemusega siiski ei olda. Eelkõige arvati, et ka järgmine laenupakett saab mingisugused piirid paika pandud, kuid selle kinnitamise otsustasid ministrid juulisse lükata. Selle võrra saavad järgneva kuu jooksul olema suure tähelepanu all nii EL-i (11. juuli) kui ka IMFi võtmekohtumised (juuli alguses peaks kinnitama viienda rahaeraldise) ning muidugi poliitilised arengud ka Kreekas.
Täna ühtegi olulist makrouudist tulemas ei ole. Euroopa rahandusministrid jätkavad oma kohtumist, kuid pärast põhiseisukohtade avaldamist täna hommikul olulisi lisasõnumeid sealt ei oodata. Ühtlasi algab Kreeka parlamendis usaldusdebatt, mis peaks päädima teisipäeva õhtul hääletusega. -
Credit Suisse alandas täna Hiina pangandussüsteemi reitingut ja Hiina 2012. aasta majanduskasvu prognoosi +8,9% pealt +8,5% peale. MarketWatchi vahendusel:
“We believe persistent inflation, slowing growth and continued tightening is likely to play out, not only in the second half of 2011, but well into 2012,” said Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao.
The bank also lowered its view on the banking sector to underweight, swinging all the way from a previously overweight view.
It cited concerns that the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to “alarming” levels because of risks associated with off-balance-sheet financing over the last two years.
Valuutaturgudel on see enim mõjutamas Austraalia dollarit, mis kaupleb hetkel 1% miinuspoolel $1,0515 juures. -
Kui eelmisel nädalal arvas Credit Suisse, et aeg on taas aktsiaid ostma hakata, siis täna leiab JPM, et konsolideerumise aeg on läbi ning järgnevate kuude jooksul võiksid turud 10-15%-list tõusu näha. Siin on mõned nende teesid:
1. We expect June to mark the worst point in macro momentum, with June ISM new ord/inventories ratio projected to match last Sept trough. Economic surprise index is at 2 standard deviations low. Japanese activity is already delivering a V-shaped recovery.
2. We believe the April peak in many commodity prices will ultimately be seen as a powerful positive, rather than as just a confirmation of macro slowdown. It is leading to stabilization in inflation, improving purchasing power and real disposable incomes. Despite a 15% fall, net long speculative oil positions are still elevated.
3. One of the big hurdles this year was the tightening in the EM, which derated direct and indirect EM plays. We expect Chinese inflation in particular to peak in June, due to a slowdown in M2 growth, appreciating currency, positive base effects and stabilizing agricultural prices.
4. The end of QE2 should not be feared. In fact, we would go as far as to say that QE2 was ultimately a negative for equities. It led to spiking commodity prices which created inflationary fears in EM, shortening the rally. Any selling due to "end of the liquidity" is likely playing out now.
5. We believe the most likely outcome with respect to Greece is the new liquidity package, without triggering the credit event, the details of which will be ironed out within weeks. This will of course not resolve the underlying problem, but could in the short term price out the contagion risk. Bank stress tests in early July could also be a positive.
6. Credit stress indicators (Ted spreads, etc) are less than half of last summer's levels. 7. The May-June poor seasonality is almost behind us.
8. Contrarian indicators are in buy territory: very low Bull-Bear, high II proportion of investors expecting a correction, low RSI. 9. Market P/E below 10x, in last 2 years this meant 7% upside over next 2M, Cyclicals
P/E rel is back to '04 level and in US the rotation was 5x normal already.
In the event of market rebound, what will lead? The usual suspects - Cyclicals (Cap Goods, Autos, IT, Materials) plus Financials in our view. -
Doug Kass usub, et SPY liigub siit ülepoole.
Doug Kass: I am taking a long rental in spiders now at 126.44 in premarket trading. -
HRBN on hetkel huvitav:)
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http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/harbin-electric-enters-into-merger-agreement-to-be-acquired-for-2400-per-share-in-cash-124178369.html
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HRBN CEO on lubanud seda $ 24 aktsia eest ostu juba mitu korda. Tundub, et päris korras asjad seal firmas siiski pole.
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Nelli Janson
HRBN CEO on lubanud seda $ 24 aktsia eest ostu juba mitu korda. Tundub, et päris korras asjad seal firmas siiski pole.
Noh seda kindlasti aga kes märkas 6$ pealt osta ,see on ikka rahul. -
Agrium (AGU) sees Q2 EPS well above consensus and prior guidance
Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.72 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and above prior guidance of $3.38-3.88. Co states the upward revision is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HIMX +5.7% (ticking higher; reaffirms Q2 rev guidance; issues $25 mln share repurchase), AGU +2.8%.
M&A news: HRBN +87.2% (agrees to enter into merger agreement to be acquired for $24.00 per share in cash).
A few ag related names seeing modest strength following AGU guidance: MOS +1%, POT +0.8%.
Select rare earth related metals/mining stocks ticking higher: MCP +2.9% (upgraded at Piper Jaffray), AVL +2.8%, REE +1.8%, .
Other news: DEXO +41% (Dex One and Google create strategic advertising sales partnership), PSTI +10.8% (entered into an exclusive out-license agreement with United Therapeutics for the use of Pluristem's PLacental eXpanded cells), S +1.9% (Sprint Nextel and Lightsquared reached 15-year network deal, according to Falcone letter that circulated over the weekend).
Analyst comments: PCX +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; added to Conviction Buy List), BTU +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman) -
Täna on Piper Jaffray väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Molycorp (MCP) kohta.
Piper Jaffray tõstab MCP reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 73 hinnasihiga.
Recent pullback creates an attractive entry point. MCP remains a highly controversial stock, fueled by the sharp run-up in rare earth pricing over the past year and uncertainty around Chinese policy on quotas and tariffs. We fully expect rare earth prices to fall in the future as additional supply comes online – we have incorporated an average price reduction of 60% by 2013 in our model – but looking out over the next 6-12 months, we see little change to industry fundamentals. At current valuations, we believe the market is pricing in (1) more severe price cuts in the 70%+ range AND (2) no additional volume from Phase II of the company's project plan which will double production capacity in 2014. We believe these assumptions are overly pessimistic in at least the near term.
Analüütikud möönavad, et MCP puhul on tegemist äärmiselt vastuolulise aktsiaga just Hiina tariifide poliitika tõttu. Analüütikud on veendunud, et tulevikus haruldaste metallide hinnad odavnevad (60% 2013. aastaks), kuna pakkumine kasvab, aga samas ei näe nad hinnastruktuuris muutus lähema 6-12 kuu jooksul, mistõttu peavad nad hiljutist langust MCP aktsiahinnas heaks ostukohaks investoritele.
Additionally, we believe MCP is poised to report strong 2Q results with production levels showing a healthy q/q increase and pricing expectations on Lanthanum have been set more appropriately following the 1Q confusion.
Analüütikud usuvad, et firma teatab tugevast teise kvartali tulemustest võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga.
Lisaks Piper Jaffray`le on MCP suhtes positiivne täna ka J.P. Morgan.
JPM kinnitab oma Osta soovitust ja tõstab MCP hinnasihi $ 87 pealt $ 105 peale.
MCP and China likely to remain disciplined. While investors fear that MCP's expansion to 40k tonnes and continued production growth out of China will ultimately tip the market into surplus and depress prices, we think MCP and China will remain disciplined. For MCP, we note that even if it only produced at a 30k tonne rate post 2013, it could see a 58% drop in current export prices and still generate an NPV of $105. We also think it will take much longer (if ever) for most of the new projects outside of China to come online.
Kuigi investorid pelgavad, et MCP tootmisvõimsuse kasv ja kasv väljaspool Hiinat tekitab lõpuks ületootmise ning viib hinnad alla, siis analüütikud ei usu, et see juhtub ning uute projektide realiseerumine (kui üldse) võtavad väga kaua aega .
MCP on viimase kuuga kukkunud üle 25% ja täna ütlevad nii Piper Jeffray kui ka JPM, et lähemal ajal haruldaste metallide turul suuri muutusi näha pole ehk teisisõnu hinnad püsivad endiselt tänu pakkumise vähesuse tõttu kõrgel. Eelturg näitab, et turuosalised on analüütikute nõus, sest MCP kaupleb juba 4% plusspoolel. Alternatiivina võiks ka jälgida AVL. -
Täna tõstab Goldman Sachs kogu kivisöe sektori Neutraalse pealt Atraktiivse peale.
We raise our coverage view to Attractive from Neutral. (1) We now see attractive 35% average upside for the group after recent underperformance (-13% vs. S&P 500 since May 1) on China fiscal tightening and US/global growth concerns. (2) Our outlook for international and US bituminous thermal coal is improved vs. a more cautious previous stance. We expect recent increases in thermal exports and lower production levels to persist, leading to near-normal thermal coal inventories by year’s end and forcing domestic utilities to sign baseload contracts for 2012 at prices above mid- cycle. (3) We expect higher oil prices to support higher international coal prices and improved energy investor sentiment. (4) We expect stabilization and modest reacceleration of global GDP growth.
Analüütikud prognoosivad ekspordikasvu ja ning usuvad, et tootmismahud jäävad endiselt madalaks, mis peaks kivisöe varud viima aasta lõpuks jälle normaalsele tasemele. Lisaks peaks kõrgem naftahind toetama ka kivisöe hinda ning parandama kogu energia sektorid.
We raise PCX to CL-Buy from Neutral on underappreciated leverage to higher thermal coal prices, multi-year free cash flow (2011-2015 FCF = 57% of market cap) and attractive valuation. Following recent underperformance, we raise BTU to Buy from Neutral for its direct exposure to international thermal coal and leading organic growth platform.
Analüütikud tõstavad PCX reitingu Hoia pealt CL (Conviction List) Osta peale koos $ 29 hinnasihiga ja BTU Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 76 hinnasihiga.
Antud sektori callist võiks turuosaliste tähelepanu äratada PCX, mis on viimase paari kuu jooksul 25% alla müüdud ning Goldman annab aktsiale sisuliselt kahekordse upgrade`i. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing guidance: NBR -3.7%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -3.6%, RBS -3.5%, BBVA -2.8%, RBS -2.5%, STD -2.3%, AEG -2.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -1.6%, BBL -1%, BHP -1%.
Other news: VITC -63.2% (resumed trading, announces conclusion of strategic and internal reviews; reports Q3/Q4 of 2010 & Q1 of 2011), NOK -3.7% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: CDXS -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), OSK -2.7% (downgraded to Sell at The Benchmark Company), LINTA -2.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), WLT -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), SWKS -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), RIMM -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), D -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), SYT -0.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan). -
LUXEMBOURG, June 20 (Reuters) - Greece's new finance minister said on Monday a meeting of euro zone finance ministers had prepared the ground for the timely release of the next EU/IMF loan tranche that the country needs to avoid default.
EURUSD 1.42 - > 1.4285 -
The Fed purchased $4.62 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $12.94 bln
This afternoon will see a second POMO with the Fed looking to buy $4-$5 bln worth of 2013-2015 maturities. -
MCP pakkus täna ilusa liikumise. Aktsia avanes $ 51,20 pealt (+4,8%) ja liikus peale avanemist kiirelt üles, käies ära ka $ 54,00 tasemel. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 53,50 kandis ehk 9,3% plusspoolel. Alternatiivina pakutud AVL küll liikumisulatuses MCP-ga konkureerida täna ei suutnud, aga sellegipoolest kaupleb ka AVL 5% plusspoolel.
Ka PCX üle ei saa täna nuriseda, sest aktsia avanes $ 19,46 pealt ja peale avanemist käis kiirelt ära ka $ 20,00 taseme juures. Hetkeks on aktsia küll tagasi tulnud oma avanemistaseme juurde ning kaupleb $ 19,50 kandis, 2,8% plusspoolel. -
DANG-i CEO on hetkel esinemas CNBC-s ja teatas ka aktsiate tagasiostu plaanist. DANG kaupleb 7% plusspoolel.
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The Fed purchased $4.58 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $21.14 bln
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Moody's places ratings of Italian government related issuers on review for downgrade
