Börsipäev 21. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kreeka peaminister George Papandreou seisab täna pärast Euroopa turgude sulgumist (väidetavalt kesköö paiku) silmitsi usaldushääletusega, mida turud suurima huviga jälgivad. Juhul, kui hääletus päädib positiivse tulemusega, üritatakse järgmisel nädalal läbi suruda uut kärpekava, mis on EL-i ja IMFi rahaeraldise üheks tingimuseks ja muudab tõenäoliseks ka uue finantsabipaketi heakskiidu. Kui peaminister kaotab usaldushääletuse, võivad ukse ees olla üldised valimised ning kärpekava selles kuus heaks ei kiideta. See raskendab raha saamist ning tekitab turgudel täiendavat närvilisust, ent valdavalt arvatakse, et kui IMF poleks nõus oma osa järgmisest rahaeraldisest andma, siis on Euroopa finantsturgude stabiilsuse huvides panuseid valmis suurendama EL.
Makro poole pealt avaldatakse täna kell 12.00 Saksamaa juunikuu ZEW indeksid ja kell 17.00 USA maikuu olemasolevate majade müük.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel päeva tippude juures (+0,3%) ning Euroopa futuurid indikeerivad avanemist umbes sarnase plussiga. -
Suurbritannia maikuu eelarve puudujääk 17,4 miljardit vs oodatud 17 miljardit GBPd. Avaliku sektori laenukohustused kasvasid oodatud 16,5 miljardi asemel 15,2 miljardi GBP võrra, kuid tõusis järsult eelmise kuu 7,7 miljardi pealt.
GBPUSD sattus surve alla, kaubeldes hetkel 0,15% miinuspoolel 1,6175 tasemel. -
Saksamaa ZEW sentimendi indeks -9,0 vs oodatud -3,0 punkti. Hetkeolukorra indeks 87,6 vs oodatud 90,0 punkti. Ja eurotsooni sentimendi indeks -5,9 vs oodatud 6,1 punkti.
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asymco.com blogis ilmus eile postitus, mis puudutas AAPL-i valuatsiooni. Alloleval esimesel graafikul on ära toodud ettevõtte müügitulude ja kasumi kasv ning ettevõtte P/E suhtarv (hinnast on maha arvatud vaba raha ja kergesti likvideeritavad investeeringud).
Teisel graafikul on ära toodud AAPL-i P/E suhtarv ja P/E suhtarv, mis on korrigeeritud kasvuga (P/E/trailing growth ehk PEG suhtarv). Teisisõnu, turg ei hinda ettevõtte kasvu ning valuatsioonis P/E suhtarvu kasutades on asymco.com endiselt arvamusel, et ettevõtte aktsiahind on tugevalt alahinnatud – tänane valuatsioon on võrdväärne 2008. aasta valuatsiooniga, millele järgnes ca 350%-line aktsiahinna kasv. Teatavasti räägiti ka 2008. aastal, et ettevõte seisab silmitsi mitmete probleemidega ning müüdavad seadmed on liialt kallid. Tänaseks on need väited küll edukalt ümber lükatud, kuid esile on kerkinud küsimused konkurentsi tihenemise osas.
asymco.com: „From a historic perspective, Apple is as cheap as it was at the bottom of the recession” -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RENN +4.5%.
M&A news: TOBC +35.5% (Susquehanna Bancshares to acquire Tower BancorpBank for $28/share).
A few financial related names showing strength: STD +2.4%, DB +2%, CS +1.2%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: GOLD +1.9%, MT +1.6%, RIO +1.2% (to exercise its remaining warrants in Ivanhoe Mines), BBL +0.9%, SLV +0.6%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: BP +2.7% and WFT +2.5% (WFT settles with BP any claims between the companies related to the Macondo litigation, reaches indemnity agreement with BP), STO +1.6%, TOT +1.6%, E +1.2%, SDRL +1% (sells the jack-up rig West Janus for ~$73 mln).
Other news: SNT +7.1% (has been told by the FDA that all clinical hold issues have been satisfactorily addressed and the FDA has removed the clinical hold on Senesco's IND application), XLNX +6% (announced that SiliconGear has designed Xilinx's Spartan-6 field programmable gate array into its latest generation high-definition video security and video display platform), BBY +4.3% (Best Buy authorizes new $5 bln buyback; raises dividend by 7% to $0.16), SYT +3.2% (Syngenta sets out path to expand global leadership; describes sales growth in second quarter 2011 as robust; sales of key crops expected to more than double to surpass $17 bln post 2015), AET +2.7% (higher after WAG drops ESRX starting in 2012), NOK +1.2% (presents its new strategy; launches 3 new Series 40 mobile phones with advanced browser and maps).
Analyst comments: BIIB +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ARUN +1.6% (initiated with a Outperform at Morgan Keegan), DFS +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie). -
Fitch on endiselt seisukohal, et igasugune Kreeka võlakohustuste edasilükkamine võrdub riigi maksejõuetusega:
Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that it would regard both a Greece sovereign debt swap and a rollover of maturities, even a voluntary one, as a default.
Both a sovereign bond exchange and a voluntary rollover would be events considered as a default, said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings with Fitch at a conference.
A month ago Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating three notches to “B+” and warned it could cut the rating further into junk territory. At the time, the rating agency said an extension of the maturity of existing bonds would be considered a default. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CCSC -10.7%, (reports a notice of change in preferential tax treatment; sees Q2 revs of ~$35-35.8 mln vs $39.1 mln Capital IQ consensus), WAG -3.3%.
M&A news: SUSQ -1.1% (light volume, Susquehanna Bancshares to acquire Tower BancorpBank for $28/share).
Other news: PSEC -4.8% (announces public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock), XG -4.5% (enters bought deal private placement of 2.4 mln shares at a price $10.50), ACHN -4.4% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), ESRX -3.3% (WAG planning to move forward without Express Scripts pharmacy provider network in 2012), FSC -2.5% (commences public offering of common stock), IVR -2.4% (prices 17 mln shares of its common stock at $20.15 per share).
Analyst comments: MMI -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from at Credit Suisse). -
Lõpuks müüs ka Paulson & Co. Sino-Foresti positsiooni ja sellega võttis kahjumit ~$720 miljonit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/paulson-dumping-sino-forest-may-deal-clients-720-million-loss.html -
All Eyes on the Fed
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/21/2011 8:49 AM EDT
"Success is doing ordinary things extraordinarily well."
--Jim Rohn
After a weak start on Monday morning due to nervousness over the Greek debt situation, the dip buyers managed a mild oversold bounce. Volume was light and the buying wasn't very aggressive, but the mood had been quite gloomy and we were in a good place for a little relief rally.
It was a very ordinary oversold bounce, but if you timed it right there were some good opportunities for profit. The key now is to continue to navigate a market that hasn't turned back into an uptrend but is acting a little better.
We are seeing some follow-through this morning as talk continues that a resolution of the Greek problem is forthcoming. The market appears optimistic about a solution there sooner or later, but we have seen so many rallies on each new rumor that you have to worry that the market won't do much when an actual deal is finally reached.
The mild, oversold bounce Tuesday and the gap up open this morning leaves us in a difficult position. Some further upside would not be surprising, especially as optimists grow hopeful that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may say something positive tomorrow when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision. Rates definitely aren't going up any time soon, but the real issue is whether the Fed gives us Quantitative Easing 3 in some form or fashion. Any hint at all that the Fed is going to keep the liquidity spigot open will likely bring in some buyers.
If we take a step back and look at the bigger technical picture, there isn't much to be excited about. We have had a seven-week correction and there is no reason to believe it is over. We have bounced near the 200-day simple moving average but it is nothing more than a routine oversold rally and not a very convincing one at that.
If the bulls are going to be serious about turning the market back up, they need a follow-through day or two. They need a good day with a decent gain on better volume to show that they have the confidence to embrace this market once again. If they can do that, it will draw in money from the sidelines and cause shorts to cover. If they don't show any real energy, then shorts will reload and trapped longs will look for an exit.
What is particularly challenging right now is that there just aren't very many strong charts. We have a lot of things that have broken down and then bounced a little, but good technical setups for position trades are tough to find. Most stocks have not had enough time to build new bases of support and you definitely aren't going to find much upside momentum.
Strong markets always have some good leadership and there is almost none to be found right now. We had a little retail bounce on lower gasoline prices and a few little pockets of action in health care, coffee and a few other little things, but there is no big positive theme. In fact, the most notable sector theme is weakness in financials and technology, which is obviously not a positive. At this point our mild oversold bounce is seeing some follow-through, and then we are on hold while we await Bernanke on Wednesday afternoon. -
Eile peatas Sino-Foresti katmise ka ettevõtte üks suurimaid "cheerleader'eid" ehk Dundee Securities. 17. juunil kirjutas analüüsimaja: "We are going to provide you with some information on why Muddy Waters research is a pile of crap.” Paraku seletusi ei tulnud ning ideest on väljutud. TRE hinnasihiks oli Dundee andnud 34 Kanada dollarit.
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Deutsche Bank on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Biogen Idec (BIIB) kohta.
Deutsche Bank tõstab BIIB aktsia reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 129 hinnasihiga.
We see 3 areas of upside: BG-12, Tysabri & Hemophilia; upgrade to Buy We view Biogen Idec as the large cap biotech stock with the greatest opportunity for upside: 1) Our analysis suggests CONFIRM will show BG-12 is more effective than Copaxone & DEFINE data will remain strong. Combo BG-12 & daclizumab Q3 data are under-appreciated. 2) We believe Tysabri will reach a positive inflection by YE:11 with most pts on drug being JCV negative in US. 3) Our due diligence suggests a greater likelihood of success for hemophilia trials in '12. This report is a deep dive into all 3 drivers. Upgrade to Buy & $129 TP.
Analüütikud nimetavad BIIB-i suurte biotehnoloogia firmade hulgas parimaks tõusupotentsiaaliga aktsiaks ning näevad firma jaoks tulemas ka mitmeid katalüsaatoreid. Kõige olulisem neist on tõenäoliselt uus hemofiilia ravi jaoks mõeldud programm rFIXFc & rFVIIIFc, mille kallal töötatakse koos Rootsi firmaga Biovitrum.
We have raised the probability of success we assign to hemophilia Repeat dosing of several patients in the Factor IX study has already occurred. Our checks indicate no issues upon repeat dosing and this gives us greater confidence in success of Biogen’s hemophilia program (rFIXFc & rFVIIIFc), as neutralizing antibodies are key risk to these studies. We assign a 25% probability to $3.2B rFVIIIFc & $337M rFIXFc peak sales.
Biogen’s Factor VIII (rFVIIIFc) therapy will be competitive, our checks show Our industry checks tell us that 2x half-life is about the max improvement achieved in any longer acting Factor VIII therapy. Therefore, we believe that the battle will come down to marketing and acceptance with hemophilia docs and societies. BIIB is the only company with pivotal studies in Factor 8, and we have heard growing excitement around BIIB's therapies with doc
Analüütikute andmetel on BIIB-i ravi juba arstide seas tunnustust leidmas ning siiani on korduvdooside andmine patsientidele näidanud,et probleeme pole tekkinud ja kuna antikehade kahjutuks tegemine on antud uurimuse puhul peamine risk, siis seetõttu on ka analüütikute usk ravi edusse kasvanud.
Deutsche Banki poolt välja toodud katalüsaatorite taustal peaks antud call turuosalistele täna küll pakkuma. BIIB on hea kauplemisaktsia ning $ 129 hinnasiht lubab üle 30% tootlust.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia 1,9 % plusspoolel. -
Needhami analüütik Charlie Wolf toob IDC andmetele tuginedes välja, et Apple’i turuosa USA nutitelefonide turul kasvas esimeses kvartalis 12.3 protsendipunkti võrra ehk 29.5%-ni. Androidi turuosa aga langes 52.4% pealt 49.5% peale. Wolfi sõnul tuleneb see iPhone’i müümisest Verizoni võrgus, mis oli siiski oodatust tagasihoidlikum. Analüütik arvab, et see on alles Androidi languse algus, kuna sügisel peaks märkimisväärselt tõusma ka Verizonis müüdavate iPhone’ide arv tänu uue iPhone 5 müügilejõudmisele. (link)
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Doug Kass arvab, et me oleme "Greek Deal is Done" tururallis ja ta pole kindel, kas see väga pikalt enam kestab.
Doug Kass: we are in the Greek Deal is Done Rally - not sure it goes much more though. -
Sarnaselt teistele suurematele analüüsimajadele ei näe ka Morgan Stanley fixed income strateeg Greg Peters riskantsemates varaklassides enam suurt kukkumisruumi. Petersi järgneva 3-6 kuu soovitus:
Recommend owning risky assets over this horizon (yes, really!)
-Maintain and look to add risk after this “soft patch”
-Staying long equities –a bottom is near
-Back to underweight rates in DM
-EUR weakens and EM currencies strengthen
-Commodities set to grind slowly higher
-Buy the dip on the credit repricing -
May Existing Home Sales 4.81 mln vs 4.79 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 5.00 mln from 5.05 mln
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Youku.com (YOKU) ticking higher; Hearing related to potential NFLX collaboration
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The Fed purchased $4.91 bln of 2016-2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $12.71 bln
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Kahjuks jäi BIIB-i upgrade`i mõju täna lühikeseks, et mitte öelda olematuks. Aktsia avanes $ 100,54 pealt ehk 2% kõrgemalt ning vahetult peale avanemist tegi kiire liikumise ka üle $ 101 taseme, kuid paraku sinna jäi ka päeva tipp, sest sealt alates on aktsia allapoole kukkunud ning kaupleb hetkel kerges plussis, $ 98,85 juures. Ise ootasin, et aktsia tõuseb vähemalt 3%, kuna tegemist oli igati tugeva calliga, aga aktsia pakkus täna kasumit ainult neile, kes kiirelt reageerisid. Tõenäoliselt alahindasin ma seda, mil määral aktsiahinda oodatavad uudised juba sisse on hinnatud.
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1) BIIB sai eile juba ühe UG ja hüppas selle peale 3 punkti
2) Kõigi katalüsaatoriteni on ikka hulk maad, enne aasta lõppu pole eriti midagi oodata
