Börsipäev 22. juuni
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Kreekas toimus öösel peaministri George Papandreou usaldushääletus, mis sai positiivse tulemuse. Sotsialistid said parlamendis 155 kohta 300-st. Teisisõnu tõenäosus, et Kreeka parlament kinnitab enne kuu lõppu ca €28 miljardi väärtuses kärpeid on suurenemas. Küll ei ole probleemid sellega lõppemas. Endiselt on olulise tähtusega kärpekavade kinnitamine ning paljud kahtlevad Kreeka valitsuse suutlikuses teha seda õigeaegselt.
Allikas: WSJ
Täna kell 17:00 avaldatakse USAs FHFA kinnisvara hinnaindeks. Kell 17:30 avaldatakse toornafta varude raport ning kell 19:30 avaldatakse FOMC baasintressimäära otsus. Konsensus intressimäära tõusu ei prognoosi. -
Loodame, et see usaldushääletuse võitmine tõstab turge. ...ka meil.
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Euro on eilse päeva tippudest allapoole tulnud.
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Äsja avaldati Inglismaa keskpanga eelmise kohtumise protokollid, kust selgus, et intressimäära otsuse hääled jagunesid vastavalt ootustele 7-2 intressimäära muutmata jätmise poolt. Stiimulprogrammi maht otsustati jätta 200 miljardi naelsterlingi peale häältega 8-1. Inflatsioonimäär tõuseb keskpanga hinnangul lähitulevikus üle 5%. Naelsterling oli juba enne protokollide avaldamist surve all ja kaupleb hetkel 0,5% madalamal $1,6160 tasemel.
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Reuters vahendab PIMCO juhi Mohamed El-Erian arvamust euroala ja konkreetsemalt Kreeka olukorra kohta:
The head of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund, predicted that Greece and other European economies would default on their debts to resolve their problems as the euro area faces a debt crisis.
"For the next three years, we're going to see different economies work out different problems. For European economies, especially Greece, it would be through default," Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of PIMCO, told reporters in Taipei on Wednesday via a video conference.
El-Erian has suggested in the past that Greece would default and that Europe risks wasting money for nothing by pumping billions of dollars into the ailing economy.
He added on Wednesday it was "unlikely but not impossible" that a Greek default would trigger another global financial crisis. -
Ronald Reagani administratsiooni eelarvejuht David Stockman on avaldanud CNBCle antud intervjuus kriitilise (ja ausa) arvamuse USA finantstervise ja ka Euroopa ning IMFi kohta.
We’re doomed on both sides of the pond, he told me on the set of “Worldwide Exchange,” and he didn’t hold back in name-calling the “lunatics” responsible for our global fiscal mess—especially the EU and the IMF.
Euroopa olukorra kohta ütles Stockman järgmist:“They're attempting to go turn the prudent Europeans of the north into permanent tax slaves in order to bail out the big banks in France and Germany and elsewhere who don't deserve a bailout,” he said, adding that, “In order to accomplish that, they will attempt to turn the millions the of people who live in southern Europe into permanent debt slaves in order to pay the piper from the guarantees coming from the north.”
“I don't think that's viable. I don't think anyone with a real political sense of history thinks that that can go on year after year,” he said.
USA ja IMFi suunas oli Stockman veelgi teravam:His outlook for the United States wasn’t any sunnier, and he called out the IMF on its recklessness in contributing $7 billion to the first round of the $40 billion EU bailouts when we’re already bankrupt.
“Last week, we had the Republican ad committee cutting a program for poor infants and women by 35 percent, and yet we're going to spend $7 billion, send it to the EC bureaucrats so they can shovel it out to the big banks in Europe and make sure that Joseph Ackerman still gets his bonus?”
Stockmani hinnangul võib USA esimene default olla IMFi enda ees:He said that this careless “shoveling” of money could lead to a default here in the U.S.— and suggested that the first default will be on our payments to the IMF. He told me about a "Bernanke put option,” where investors are banking on the Fed to not let us fail—but trade is too crowded.
“The IMF is an absurd institution,” he said. “It's destructive. It's the source of holding this whole thing together with bailing wire.”
“And the sooner their number is called, he said, “The better off I think we'll all be.” -
Jaapani valitsus on palunud ettevõtetel vähendada 15% elektritarbimist ja sellest tulenevalt on kasutusele võetud ka mitmed abinõud, mille hulgas alustatakse tööpäeva 1 tund varem, vähendatakse õhukonditsioneeri kasutamist, suletakse osad liftid ja julgustatakse inimesi kandma sel suvel rohkem argipäevaseid riideid ja loobuma tumedatest ülikondadest ning lipsust.
Nagu Business Insider ka lisab, siis mõnikord on vaja suurt õnnetust või kriisi, et inimesed energia säästmist tõsiselt võtaks. Näiteks Teise maailmasõja ajal olid USA-s liikvel loosungid kirjaga: " Kui sa sõidad üksi, siis sa sõidad koos Hitleriga." -
China Sunergy (CSUN) initiated with a Buy at Collins Stewart; tgt $3.15
Collins Stewart initiates CSUN with a Buy and price target of $3.15 saying the remarkable expansion in polysilicon capacity and the emergence of GCL has dramatically flattened the industry's cost curve, enabling vendors such as CSUN to be competitive with top-tier vendors. CSUN's cost disadvantage versus top tier Chinese vendors is expected to narrow to $0.05/w in 4Q11, down from a gap of $0.19/w in 1Q11. They view CSUN as an inexpensive means of investing in a beneficiary of the disruptive force GCL (3800.hk, NR) is proving to be on the solar industry. -
Travelzoo (TZOO) ests and target raised to $124 at The Benchmark Company as June Local Deal surge
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FedEX, mida tihti vaadatakse globaalse majanduse baromeetrina, on suutnud neljandas kvartalis saavutada oodatust paremad tulemused ning ka prognooside keskpunktid on konsensuse nägemusest kõrgemad. FedExi aktsia on eelturul kauplemas 2,1% plussis
FedEx prelim $1.75 vs $1.73 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $10.55 bln vs $10.39 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
FedEx sees Q1 $1.40-1.60 vs $1.42 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; FY12 EPS of $6.35-6.85 vs. $6.49 consensus -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AVAV +12.4%, WSCI +9.4%, KMX +7.8% (light volume), AMSWA +3.3%, FDX +2.9%, LZB +1.9% (light volume), JBL +1.9% (also authorizes stock repurchase of up to $200 mln).
Other news: AERL +12.3% (announces semi-annual cash dividend and share repurchase program), CBLI +6.1% (discloses update following offering), APWR +5.6% (still checking), ACHN +3.2% (priced a 9.6 mln share common stock offering at $5.90/share), YHOO +1.6% (ticking higher following joint statement from Alibaba Group, Yahoo, and Softbank regarding Alipay), IRDM +1.5% (T2 Partners Management discloses 9.3% position in 13D filing), UPS +1.2% (lifting on peer FDX earnings/guidance), NOK +0.7% (Nokia and Accenture finalize Symbian software development and support services outsourcing agreement), EXPE +0.4% (ticking higher; strength attributed to speculation of near-term TripAdvisor spin-off).
Analyst comments: FFN +15.4% (initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg), BSX +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel), WNR +6.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PHG -13.2%, FSII -11.1%, ADBE -3.5%.
M&A related: RIMM -1.5% (modestly pulling back following more cautious comments related to M&A speculation).
Select financial related names showing weakness: BCS -3.4% (also downgraded at HSBC), DB -3.3%, CS -2.1%, HBC -1.6%, STD -1%, UBS -0.5%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GFI -1.5%, HMY -1.6%, BBL -1.3%, HL -1.1%, RIO -0.8%, GOLD -0.8%, SLW -0.8%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: BP -1.2%, BEXP -1.2%, RDS.A -1%, TOT -1%, HAL -1.0%, E -0.6%, SDRL -0.6%.
Other news: NUVA -4.4% (to offer $325 mln convertible senior notes due 2017), .
Analyst comments: UDR -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital). -
QE3, Anyone?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/22/2011 8:25 AM EDT
"If you've got a squirt gun in your pocket, you may have to take it out. If you've got a bazooka, and people know you've got it, you may not have to take it out."
--Henry Paulson, former Treasury Secretary
The market is experiencing a slight "sell the news" reaction this morning as the Greek parliament made the necessary vote to implement the austerity measures needed to obtain a bailout. This news was well anticipated yesterday and probably more than priced in already.
Even if Greece is bailed out, European debt issues are far from over. A bailout just solves one of the most immediate problems and opens the door to speculation as to whether Italy, Portugal, Spain or Ireland will be the next to seek help.
Anticipation of the Greek vote was a good catalyst for an oversold bounce at exactly the right time. Now the question is whether the bulls can keep it going. The answer lies with the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monthly interest rate decision today at 12:30 p.m. EDT, but the focus will be on comments by Bernanke afterwards. What market players will be looking for is any hint that some form of quantitative easing will continue.
Ben Bernanke blasted the market with a bazooka of liquidity known as QE2 and that helped to produce a massive rally. QE2 is scheduled to end at the end of June, but the sputtering economy has many folks hopeful that the Fed will find a way to continue to supply cheap dollars. While another round of quantitative easing in a pure form is very difficult politically, the Fed has plenty of tools in its bag of tricks, and it wouldn't be surprising if it found some new ways to keep the liquidity spigot open.
With the Greek news now behind us, the market will be on hold as it anxiously awaits comments from Dr. Bernanke. He has a history of being market friendly, which probably helped the bounce yesterday and has pushed some bears to the sidelines. But the danger of a "sell the news" reaction is quite high if we don't hear anything new from the Fed this afternoon. The general consensus is that there will be nothing new from the Fed, but the market is always hopeful that the Fed will find new ways to kill the U.S. dollar and prop up the stock market.
Technically, the market has gone from oversold to somewhat overbought, and that is going to make it tough for the bulls unless Bernanke waves that bazooka around a bit. If he doesn't, we'll have to watch for this market to roll back over.
Look for the market to chop around this morning while we await the Fed. A good earnings report from FedEx (FDX) is helping a bit, but Europe is mostly red and caution levels are up.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no holdings in the stocks mentioned. -
DAC lennus, juba +23%
Põhjus:
http://www.thelawyer.com/breaking-dac-and-beachcroft-moot-%C2%A3175m-merger/1008322.article -
Doug Kass: gun to my head! the greek opposition announcement that not supporting austerity should halt rally
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FOMC otsustas vatavalt ootustele jätta intressimäär muutmata.
Kokkuvõte siin:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. -
Reuters story that Greek cabinet has approved the details of the five year austerity plan; expected to go to Parliament on Friday and a vote expected before the end of the month
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-greece-laws-idUSTRE75L4PG20110622 -
ResMed (RMD) trades lower in recent trade; Hearing downgraded at Deutsche Bank
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Fed releases updated economic projections: Sees 2011 GDP of 2.7-2.9% vs. 3.1-3.3% range in April... Unemployment rate of 8.6-8.9% vs. 8.4-8.7% in April... Core PCE inflation of 1.5-1.8% vs. 1.3-1.6% in April
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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Press Conference-
Expect unemployment to continue to decline but at a 'frustratingly' slow pace
Reiterates that first step in tightening will be a decision to stop reinvesting; they have not decided when that would occur
Says not sure why exactly the slowdown has persisted; believes likely reason is because headwinds have been stronger than anticipated
Have not made any decisions for further asset purchases; notes in August inflation was falling, believes QE2 helped eliminate deflation risks
