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Börsipäev 23.juuni

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  • Tere hommikut ja soovin kõigile head Võidupüha!
    Ka karud said eile USA turgudel pullidest võitu ning SPY sulgus eile miinuspoolel.Bernanke oma eilses kõnes just häid uudiseid ei teatanud ning ütles, et majanduskasv on oodatust visam ja tööpuudus küll väheneb, aga samuti üsna aeglaselt.Lisaks sellele teatas, et QE3 pole samuti hetkel plaanis, kuna paigalseis majanduses on ajutine.
    Nii Euroopa kui USA turud näitavad varaseid signaale rahulolematusest ehk indeksid kauplemas punasel territooriumil ja EUR/USD on hetkel 1,4264 tasemel.
  • Eurotsooni juunikuu esmane PMI alanes 55,8 punkti pealt 53,6 punktile, märkides madalaimat taset alates 2009. aasta oktoobrist (prognoositi 55,6). Tingitud oli see eelkõige töötlevast tööstusest, kus näitaja alanes maikuu 54,6 punktilt 52,0 punktile, viidates sellega majanduse oodatust kiiremale jahenemisele.

    EUR/USD pole selle peale erilist muutust näidanud ning jätkab kauplemist $1,4270 tasemel.
  • Tänast makrokalendrit vaadates jääb veel oodata USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste numbrit (kell 15.30), mis konsensuse arvates võis püsida umbes samal tasemel (kosensus 413K vs eelneva nädala 414K) ning kestvate taotluste suurusjärguks prognoositakse 3680K vs 3675K eelneval nädalal. Kell 17.00 raporteeritakse uute majade müük maikuus. Euroopas jälgitakse aga jäkuvalt Kreeka arenguid ning Euroopa ministrite kahepäevast kohtumist, kus päevaplaanis peaks olema EFSF-i ja ESM-i tulevik ja Euro Plus lepingu rakendamine
  • Hommikul avaldati ka HSBC poolt koostatav PMI indeks, mis jäi napilt üle 50 punkti ja sellega viitab tehniliselt veel majandusaktiivsuse kasvule (50,1 vs 51,6 maikuus).

    “Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: ‘Demand is cooling thanks to the effect of tightening measures and the slackness in external markets. This, plus the ongoing inventory destocking, has led to a slowdown in output growth. But hard-landing worries are unwarranted not least because the current PMI is at a level consistent with around 13% IP growth. The good news is that inflationary pressures started to ease meaningfully in June amid slowing demand.’”
  • Marc Faber räägib Bloombergi interjvuus veidi QE tagajärgedest ning avaldab arvamust, mis oleks tegelikult USA majanduse pääsetee. Lisaks arvab ta, et aktsiaturgude selle aasta tipp võib olla juba seljataga. Link videole
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SCS +5.8%, RHT +5.2%, RAD +4.5%, MLHR +4.2%, BBBY +2.6%, PAYX +0.5%.

    M&A news: PARD +14.9% (Poniard Pharmaceuticals and ALLOZYNE sign definitive merger agreement), CV +3.2% (Hearing early strength attributed to a competing bid; announced May 30 it will be acquired by Fortis for $35.10 per shares), BJ +0.5% (ticking higher on continued M&A speculation related to company seeking higher bid).

    Other news: BMY +4.5% and PFE +2.6% (cos announce that ELIQUIS (apixaban) meets primary and key secondary endpoints in Phase 3 ARISTOTLE study).

    Analyst comments: CAVM +0.9% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).
  • Initial Jobless Claims 429K vs. 413K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 420K from 414K
  • Continuing Claims 3.697 mln vs. 3.68 mln Briefing.com consensus

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WDFC -6.5% (ticking lower), WHR -3.6%, (reaffirms FY11 EPS guidance; co's subsidiary settles collection dispute with Banco Safra S.A), CAG -3.0%, THS -2.4% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -5.3%, STD -4.1%, RBS -3.2%, LYG -3%, BCS -2.9%, ING -2.9%, DB -2.6%, UBS -2.3%, CS -1.9%, HBC -1.3%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -3.8%, EGO -2.9%, CDE -2.9%, HL -2.2%, GFI -2.1%, BBL -1.8%, GOLD -1.8%, BHP -1.7%, RIO -1.6%, GG -1.2%, AA -1.1%, VALE -0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: STO -3.5%, E -2.9%, BP -2.1%, TOT -2%, RDS.A -2%.

    Other news: FPTB -6.9% (announces commencement of common stock offering), PODD -6.1% (filed for a $110 mln convertible sr notes offering; also announces concurrent public offerings of convertible senior notes and common stock issued in previously announced Neighborhood Diabetes Acquisition), STM -5.4% and ERIC -3.4% (STM/ERIC jv announces new cost savings plan that aims at $120 mln of annualized savings by end of 2012; sees profitability taking longer than expected), EXL -4.6% (is commencing an underwritten public offering of 12.5 million shares of common stock), MRH -3.8% (ticking lower following 6.7 magnitude quake in Japan last night), PLD -3.7% (to offer 30 mln shares of common stock), GTXI -3.1% (to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), AGNC -2.6% (announces public offering of 36 mln shares of its common stock), .

    Analyst comments: NLC -3.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), POR -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), FFIV -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), CSX -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee), STP -1.7% (initiated with a Sell at Maxim Group), TWX -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
  • USA tötuabiraha taotluste peale on kasvanud taas safe haveni otsingu tung, kui EURCHF oli hetkeks kauplemas rekordmadalal tasemel @ 1,1876
  • Market Loses Helpful Fed Wind
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/23/2011 8:34 AM EDT


    "When the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money." -- Boston Federal Reserve Bank

    On August 27, 2010, in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Ben Bernanke set the stage for what became known as the QE2 program. The essence of QE2 was that the Federal Reserve would become a buyer of a huge amount of Treasury bonds. The Fed printed up a bunch of dollars and then proceeded to buy their own bonds day after day. This helped to keep interest rates extremely low and provide a sea of cash to banks and other sellers of government paper.

    There were few other places for this cash to go so much of it went into the stock market and commodities. The S&P 500 moved from under 1,050 in August 2010 to over 1,350 in April 2011. We rallied in almost a straight line, although unemployment, economic growth, housing and many other measures of economic health saw little, if any, improvement. Good corporate earnings helped the market rally, but the story of the market for a long time has been the endless liquidity provided by the Fed.

    The QE2 program has now come to an end and the market has been struggling. Market players were hopeful yesterday that Ben Bernanke would hint at the possibility of further quantitative easing in view of the recent economic weakness. Bernanke offered nothing along those lines and the market sold off.

    Of course, the usual perma-bulls are telling us the Fed doesn't matter. They argue that there are other positives that the market should see and that will hold stocks up. These bulls loved the Fed when the market was going up but want to call them irrelevant when the market is going down. It doesn't work that way. The old adage about not fighting the Fed works both ways and right now the Fed is a market negative.

    What was most surprising about Bernanke's press conference, and what caused the market to sell off, was the completely refusal to even hint that another round of quantitative easing might be forthcoming. Bernanke's position was that we have to see the data over the next few months and then we will make a decision. The market is already concerned about the weak economic reports we have seen lately and it doesn't feel it's necessary to wait for long. That is why we are seeing selling pressure now.

    None of this is too surprising. We've been in a downtrend for nearly two months in large part due to anticipation that QE2 was coming to an end. We have already built in some of this negativity, but there remained hope that the Fed would be looking to do something soon.

    The fundamental basis for the weak market action is clear. The issue now is whether we can find some technical support. We have undergone a pretty good correction already and we finally did find a little support around the 200-day simple moving average of the S&P 500, but the downtrend is still in place.

    The bulls have some major obstacles to overcome both technically and fundamentally. They have to show us that they can shrug off the negatives out there and find some support. If they can do that we can inch back in and build some positions but for now a defensive posture is the way to go.

    The market no longer has the Fed providing a wind at its back and the market has to show us that it can overcome that handicap. It is a major problem and won't be easy. There is no reason for us to bet on the bulls at this point. If you are going to play this market, stay short term and skeptical until conditions change.
  • May New Home Sales 319K vs. 305K Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 326K from 323K
  • The Fed purchased $1.21 bln of 2021-2027 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $4.91 bln
  • Netflix: Facebook announced today that Reed Hastings, chairman and chief executive officer of Netflix Inc., has joined the company's board of directors.
  • Headlines crossing indicating that Greece reached an agreement with EU-IMF inspectors on five-year austerity plan
  • ZeroHedge peab äsjast põrget Kreeka uudise peale turul täiesti naeruväärseks, kuna tema sõnul pole see kokkulepe mingi näitaja, aga madala käibega turul nagu meil täna on, on selline reaktsioon isegi mõistetav.

    But with market that's have absolutely no liquidity and monkeys controlling the buy and sell algos, one can only sit back and laugh.

  • Douglas Kass :
    i am back shorting the indices.. specifically spiders at 128.05 now - silly greece induced rally makes little sense

    Kass ZH-ga ühel arvamusel.
  • Meeldetuletuseks: 24. juunil algab kauplemine kell 15.00 ning siis edastatakse turule Euroopa ning USA eelturu orderid. Kauplemine lõppeb kell 23.00, LHV Traderi rahakandeid 24. juunil ei teostata. LHV Trader kontol toimub kauplemine tavapärastel aegadel.

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