Börsipäev 27. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Möödunud nädala lõpp suurendas turgudel riskikartlikkust, kui Dow lõpetas seitsmendat korda madalamal viimase kaheksa nädala jooksul ning Stoxx600 jäi miinuspoolele kaheksandat nädalat järjest. Sentiment on kandunud täna ka Aasiasse, kus valdav osa indeksteid kaupleb kerges miinuses. Hiina on üheks erandiks, kui positiivsemat meeleolu tekitab peaministri kommentaar, kelle kohaselt on inflatsioon saadud kontrolli alla.
Pärast läinud nädala usaldushääletust jääb Kreeka jätkuvalt tähelepanu keskpunkti, kui kolmapäeval / neljapäeval leiab aset uue kärpekava hääletus. Tänasest makrost võiks välja tuua USA isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste maikuu muutuse, mis avaldatakse kell 15.30. Samal ajal raporteeritakse maikuu tuuminflatsioon. -
LDK Solar Co. (LDK) , the Xinyu City, China, provider of solar-energy products, projects and services, said Monday that it would buy back as much as $110 million of its American depositary shares. LDK called the ADSs "grossly undervalued" and said the buyback would be "a good investment." The ADSs closed Friday at $6.81. The company said it would buy the shares on the open market or privately.
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Business Insideri vahendusel võib lugeda, et Goldman Sachsi analüütikute arvates on praeguses majandustsüklis parim aktsia investeerimiseks Warren Buffetti vana lemmik- Coca Cola (KO). 55% firma käibest ja 75% kasumist tuleb väljaspool USA-d ja Goldmani analüütikud usuvad, et ettevõtte käive on jätkuvalt kasvamas. Goldman soovitab KO-d osta koos $ 76 hinnasihiga.
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GSi nägemuse kohta aktsiaturgude tsüklite kohta veel niipalju, et praegu peaksime olema umbes kasvufaasis keskpaigas:
It is hard to form firm conclusions given the relatively few cycles we have to compare with, but comparing these observations with the historical experience would suggest that we are likely to remain in the Growth phase well beyond the end of 2012. As a result, the poor returns we have seen so far in the Growth phase are not that concerning as returns tend to improve as we move through the Growth phase...
Siin ka üks graafik Euroopa aktsiate hinnataseme kohta erinevates faasides:
Allikas: Goldman Sachs -
Metropolitan Healt Network (MDF) on teinud Continucare Corp (CNU)-le ülevõtupakkumise $6.45.
$6.25 cash ja 0.0414 stockis
CNU on hetkel kauplemas $5.62 tasemel -
Morgan Stanley lisab Apple (AAPL)-i oma Research Tactical Idea (RTI) nimekirja ja kinnitab oma Osta soovitust aktsiale.
Recent dip a buying opportunity. After meetings in Taiwan last week, we expect Apple order cuts to ease and iPhone / iPad production to begin ramping aggressively from August through year-end. We view the recent valuation pullback as a buying opportunity in light of the following factors, and issued a Research Tactical Idea on AAPL along with this note.
(1) Post-Japan earthquake production constraints have eased, putting upward pressure on iPad shipments.
(2) With improved component supply, Apple is negotiating price cuts with some suppliers, potentially
boosting margins modestly in the June quarter and more in September.
(3) Apple’s next iPhone will begin production in mid to late August and ramp aggressively into C4Q.
Analüütikud usuvad, et aktsia hiljutine langus on suurepärane ostukoht. Morgan Stanley analüütikud on käinud Taiwanis olukorda uurimas ja prognoosivad nüüd, et Apple`i tellimused peaks taastuma ja Iphone ja iPadi toomine peaks jõudsalt kasvama alates augustist kuni aasta lõpuni välja.
Tarnijad on kitsaskohtadest üle saadud ja sellest tulenevalt kavatseb Apple`i ka mõnega neist alustada läbirääkimisi hinnaalanduse osas, mis peaks ka ettevõtte marginaale juuni kvartalis vähesel määral ja septembri kvartalis rohkemal määral ka parandama.
Apple`i uue iPhone`i tootmine saab alguse augusti lõpupoole ning jätkub kasvavas tempos kuni neljanda kvartalini.
Lower priced iPhones and TV are additional mid-term catalysts: Apple is forecasting a large iPhone unit increase in CY12 on the back of new products and potentially lower price points. We also believe Apple is in the early design stages for a TV, which could add $19 billion and $4.50 of annual revenueand EPS longer-term.
Lisaks eelnevale toovad analüütikud katalüsaatoritena välja ka madalama hinnaga iPhone`id ja arendamisjärgus TV projekti, mis nende hinnangul võib firmale tuua aastas käibelisa suurusjärgus $ 19 miljardit ning kasvatada kasumit $4,50 võrra.
We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days. We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% or "very likely" probability for the scenario.
Analüütikud usuvad, et 70-80%-lise tõenäosusega aktsiahind järgmise 60ne päeva jooksul tõuseb.
Kuigi AAPL on üks atraktiivsemaid firmasid tehnoloogia sektoris ja seda nii aktsia hinnataseme kui ka toodete poolest, siis paraku on investorite ebakindlus tuleviku suhtes jätnud aktsia ühele tasemele tammuma. Morgan Stanley analüütikud usuvad, aga et AAPL on taas hoogu üles võtmas ning soovitab investoritel head võimalust mitte käest lasta. Olgu öeldud et AAPL on ka LHV Pro idee.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $328,40 kandis ehk 0,6% plusspoolel. -
FT Alphaville kirjutab, et McGraw-Hill (S&P Valuation and Risk Strategies) hinnangul tähendaks USA krediidireitingu (AAA) langetus riigi võlakirjadesse investeerinutele ca $50 – 100 miljardi väärtuses kahjumit. Riik ise oleks aga sunnitud maksma aastas ca $2.3 – 3.75 miljardi võrra enam intressi. Analüüsis tuuakse väja, et AA reiting tähendaks 10-aastase võlakirjale ca 2.0%-list ja A reiting 3.2%-list hinnalangust. Paraku ei ole tegemist täppisteadusega – prognoos põhineb nii-öelda „market derived signals“ või "MDS" mudelil, millest annab parema ülevaate allolev võõrkeelne tekst.
„In the Market Derived Signals Model, the key parameters observed for a firm are its current five-year credit default swap spread, Standard & Poor’s long-term issuer credit rating and CreditWatch/Outlook status, Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS® ) sector, CDS document type, and currency denomination. We compile this information on a large number of firms on a daily basis, and then at the end of each day, we estimate a linear model that regresses the observed log of the CDS spread on each of the other variables.“
Tegemist on ettevõtete analüüsimiseks mõeldud mudeliga, mida on muudetud selleks, et analüüsida riike. -
Briefing.com vahendusel:
May Personal Income +0.3% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
May Personal Spending 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
May PCE Core +0.3% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping up
M&A news: CNU +17.8% (ticking higher, to be acquired by MDF for ~$416 mln in cash and stock; $6.25 per share in cash plus 0.0414 shares of MDF), SLE +1.6% (is the target of M&A speculation following report indicating Smithfield is looking for purchase), FNDT and SONE (announce stock for stock merger).
A few metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +1.6%, BBL +0.7%, RIO +0.4%, BHP +0.3%.
Other news: ICGN +117.1% (issues statement in response to Pfizer SEC filing, PFE evaluating the possibility of entering into a strategic transaction with Icagen), AGEN +32.7% (thinly traded, reports herpes study results presented show robust immune response), LDK +6.1% (LDK Solar approved a share buyback program that authorizes LDK Solar to repurchase up to US$110 million of its American Depository Shares), HRZ +4.5% (reached an agreement with its bank group to amend its credit facility), PACB +4.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SGMO +3.8% (announced the publication of a preclinical study demonstrating permanent functional correction of the gene that causes hemophilia B by the systemic delivery of zinc finger nucleases), CBRX +3.7% (FDA has accepted for filing Columbia's NDA for PROCHIEVE), NOK +2% (Nokia Siemens joint venture may pursue restructuring following insufficient private equity interest for stake).
Analyst comments: ASML +2.9% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), DECK +1.9%, (upgraded to Buy at Capstone), CAG +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SINA +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), HIG +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital), UAL +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Evervore), AMZN +1.1% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm positive comments), AGNC +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities). -
Gapping down
Select financial related names showing weakness: BCS -2.1%, DB -1.9%, RBS -1.5%, NBG -0.8%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: XCO -3.9% (Stifel Nicolaus potential weakness of 5-10% in the coming week), KWK -3.0%, TNK -2.4%, CHK -2.1%, SWN -1.8%, HK -1.7%.
Other news: PTIE -24.5% (discusses last week's Complete Response Letter for Remoxy; says potential drug approval unlikely in less than a year), DRRX -17.8% (continued weakness following PTIE comments related to last week's Complete Response Letter for Remoxy), UFPI -15.6% (to align costs with its current business, primarily due to significantly weaker-than-expected sales YTD), AZN -1% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: MOLX -2% (downgraded to Sell at Ticonderoga), TGT -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney). -
Focus on the Short Term
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/27/2011 8:29 AM EDT
There is always a better strategy than the one you have; you just haven't thought of it yet.
-- Sir Brian Pitman
The crux of all effective trading strategies is catching a trend. It might be for just a few minutes or for many years, but making money depends on staying long when things are going up and staying short or in cash if things are going down. If you do that, then your chances of making some money are pretty darn good.
Of course, nothing is simple or easy when it comes to the stock market. It isn't at all hard to come up with a good strategy, like "buying low and selling high." Actually implementing it is another story. There are always constant debates and arguments that things are about to shift. Even if the market isn't at a major turning point, we'll still see countertrend rallies and pullbacks to confuse the situation.
The present market is at the point where there is increasing pressure to start anticipating that some sort of a bottom is near. We have been in a downtrend for nearly two months now, we have some support around the 200-day simple moving average and we have the end of the quarter this week and the start of earnings season soon.
Lots of folks reason that we have sold off enough already and we are about ready to go back up. We are sure to have another two or three "Greece is saved" rallies, and with the downward pressure on oil, how much selling pressure can there be?
Even if a major bottom is not forming, it is hard to not expect some sort of oversold bounce into the end of the quarter. Sentiment has become quite gloomy and, as we saw last week, market players are not well positioned for the upside, which is helping to produce short squeezes and quick spikes.
The challenge we face is trying to determine to what extent we continue to honor the fact that the market is still in a downtrend vs. respecting the likelihood that we are likely to see some countertrend rallies in the near term. Do we stay on the defensive and wait for the market to prove itself before we go long? Or do we try to anticipate some turns and play some bounces?
The answer depends on styles and time frames. Aggressive short-term traders will likely want to look to play some upside moves even if they don't believe that the market is making a lasting low. Bear-market rallies can be some of the biggest and most powerful, and you can make some good money if you catch them right.
The key is to make sure you manage those trades effectively. Take some profits when you have them, cut losses quickly and don't let trades turn into investments. The biggest mistake market players make is getting seduced into believing that a bounce is the start of a major market turn. They worry they will be left out as the market goes straight up, and they end up being burned when we have a failed bounce within an uptrend.
My approach here is to embrace the fact that the market is in a downtrend and to be distrustful of upside until there is a clear change in the character of the action. Play bounces and bottoms but treat them as short-term trades and not as longer-term positions. The main goal is to protect capital for the pain of a downtrend while maintaining an opportunistic viewpoint that allows for some profits as the market bounces around.
We didn't have any major news flow out of Europe this weekend, and that is good enough reason to give us some mild upside to start the week. Keep in mind that this week is the end of the second quarter; there is likely to be some window-dressing pressure. The Russell rebalancing on Friday created lots of big volume spikes that may be misleading -- keep that in mind as we look for trading opportunities this week. -
Business Insider on toonud välja huvitavad tähelepanekud, mis on teinud Oppenheimeri analüütikud vestlustest oma klientidega. Nad on toonud välja viis peamist veendumust, mis investoritel turgude suhtes on ning lisanud sinna ka oma kommentaarid, miks investoritel ei pruugi õigus olla.
Esiteks on investorid veendunud, et SP500 alla 1250 taseme ei kuku ja teiseks usutakse, et kui tööpuudus peaks suurenema ja olukord halvenema, siis tõttab Fed kindlasti QE3-ga appi. Analüütikute arvates on investorid liigselt hakkanud toetuma valitusepoolsele abile ning fundamentaalseid näitajaid aktsiahindade puhul justkui ei peetakski enam oluliseks. Lisaks eelnevale ootavad investorid, et ettevõtete teise kvartali tulemused tulevad oodatust paremad, aga analüütikute arvates on see asjatu lootus, kuna majanduskasv on siiski selgelt aeglustunud ja viimaste kuude hinnatõus on kammitsenud ka USA tarbijaid. Investorid peavad suuri tehnoloogiafirmasid, mis kauplevad hetkel väga madalatel kordajatel, valuatsioonilõksuks, aga siinkohal on Oppenheimeri analüütikud jällegi täiesti vastupidisel arvamusel ning väidavad, et just tehnoloogia ettevõtted on fundamentaalselt parimal positsioonil järgmise 3-5 aasta perspektiivis. -
Lisaks Apple'ile kiidab Morgan Stanley täna ka Amazoni (AMZN) ja lisab internetikaubamaja aktsia oma lemmikideede nimekirja, tõstes aktsia hinnasihi 225 dollarilt 245 dollarile:
At a current valuation of 16.4x EV / 2013E EBITDA, we believe the market is not giving credit for the sales momentum and potential margin expansion opportunities heading into C2H:11. Additionally, we believe the share price is not factoring in any option value for the possibility of a strong new product cycle over the next 6-18 months. -
Bloombergis kirjutatakse, et Hispaania pankadel on 50 miljardi euro ulatuses küsitava väärtusega kinnisvara ja pangad võivad vajada 20-30 miljardit eurot lisakapitali. Lisaks võib Hispaania pankade päästefond (FROB) üle võtta rohkem kui 20% Hispaania pangandussüsteemist.
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Kui kellelgi on soov biotehnoloogia guru Adam Feuersteiniga privaatselt biotehnoloogia aktsiatest vestelda, siis nüüd on selleks võimalus. Alloleva lingi kaudu on võimalus end registreerida ja sümboolne tasu selle eest läheb heategevuseks.
Adam Feuerstein: Want to chat 1x1 w/ me about #biotech? Sign up --> http://bit.ly/mJqzp5 My (small) fee goes to charity. www.phonefive.me -
Kunagise LHV Maailma Pro ideega Fundtech (FNDT) juhtuski täna see, mida aastaid tagasi ideed avades ette nägime - ehk ettevõte võetakse üle. Ostjaks S1 (SONE), seega paar nädalat tagasi alanud ülevõtukuulujutud said täna sellega lõpliku punkti.
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AAPL oli täna täitsa kena. Aktsia avanes $ 327,59 pealt ning tegi peale avanemist kiire hüppe $ 329,00 kanti, tuli korraks avanemistaseme kanti tagasi, et sealt siis uuesti üles liikuda ning hetkel kaupleb AAPL $ 331,50 juures ehk 1,6% plusspoolel.
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Euroopa suurim GPS-de tootja Tom Tom prognoosib oma teiseks kvartaliks oodatust nõrgemaid tulemusi, mille tõttu on müügisurve alla sattunud ka konkurent Garmin (GRMN), mille aktsiad kauplevad hetkel juba 6% miinuspoolel.
GRMN Shares Tumble as TomTom Offers Weak Guidance: Q2 sales €300-€310M, FY sales €1.225-€1.275B, EPS €0.25-€0.30 -
NKE teatas oodatust parematest tulemustes ja aktsia järelturul kauplemas 3% plusspoolel.
Nike prelim $1.24 vs $1.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $5.8 bln vs $5.53 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
