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Börsipäev 28. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Turgudel on asetatud oma kaarte sellele, et kolmapäevane kärpekava hääletus Kreekas surutakse suure tõenäosusega läbi. Kuigi Euroopa indeksid jäid nulli lähedale, siis märksa positiivsem oli toon USA-s, kus tugevust näitasid tehnoloogia- ja finantssektori aktsiad. Aasia indeksid on jätkanud öösel kerget põrget ning hetkel näib sentiment kanduvat ka Euroopasse.

    Tähelepanu saab olema endiselt Kreekal ja selle parlamendiliikmete sõnavõttudel enne hääletust tõenäoliselt kolmapäeva pärastlõunal. Makrost raporteeritakse täna aga kell 11.30 Suurbritannia esimese kvartali SKT lõplik näit, oluliselt suurema fookuse all saab olema USA tarbijausaldus ja Richmond Fedi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus kell 17.00.

    USA indeksite futuurid on hommikusest miinusest praeguseks välja rabelenud ning näitavad 0,05%list plussi, Euroopa turud tõotavad futuurid järgi avaneda 0,5% kõrgemal.
  • WSJ kirjutab, et Kreeka plaan koguda aastaks 2015 läbi erastamiste €50 miljardit võib olla liiga ambitsioonikas. Põhjuseks eelkõige ostjate puudus, mille on tinginud vaenulikud ametiühingud, riigimaa erastamise vastu olevad kodanikud ja kinnisvaraarendajaid peletav bürokraatiaaparaat. Alates 2000. aastast on Kreeka erastamisest saanud €10 miljardit, kuid nüüd tuleb põhimõtteliselt kaks korda lühema ajaga müüa 5 korda rohkem.
    ...finding buyers for that grab bag of assets is likely to be a very tall order. Obstacles abound, including unions hostile to selling state-owned companies, citizens opposed to the privatization of state-owned land and a bureaucratic labyrinth that has long thwarted would-be developers.

    To make matters worse, many of the available properties have already been offered for years, with no takers. Since 2000, Greece has netted some €10 billion from privatization. Now it must do five times that much in less than half the time.

    As recently as early last year, Greece had estimated that privatization could yield, at best, €1 billion or €2 billion a year. EU authorities originally asked for just €3 billion in privatization revenue over the period of the first bailout, which runs until mid-2013.

  • China Yurun ehk Hongkongis noteeritud sealihatootja tänahommikune aktsiahinna liikumine kinnitab, et Muddy Watersit tasub Hiina ettevõtetel endiselt karta (vaatamata sellele, et John Paulson ning Dundee Capital Markets analüütikud on Carlson Blocki tegevust nimetanud turuga manipuleerimiseks). China Yurun aktsia kaupleb hetkel ca 5% miinuses ehk HK$19.86 tasemel, kuna turgudel levis spekulatsioon, et Muddy Waters avalikustab kohe-kohe järjekordse pettusskeemi (kauplemissessiooni esimesel poolel oli China Yurun aktsia ca 10% miinuses). Siiski raportit veel avalikustatud ei ole ning Carlson Block on uudist kommenteerinud järgmiste sõnadega: „We take pains to keep our research activities confidential, and a widespread market rumor would either represent a significant failure on our part, or is false.“

    Allolevalt graafikult on hästi näha kuidas reageeris turg spekulatsioonile - lühikeste positsioonide maht kasvas hüppeliselt. Olgu öeldud, et China Yurun audiitor on KPMG ning kordagi ei ole avaldatud ettevõtte kohta märkustega järeldusotsust. Ettevõtet katab 34 analüüsimaja, millest 30 on andnud "osta" reitingu - keskmiseks hinnasihiks on HK$33.14. Kõrgeimate hinnasihtidega on väljas Nomura (HK$42), BNP Paribas (HK$38), RBS (HK$37.5), Daiwa Securities (HK$37) ja Piper Jaffray (HK$36).

  • Suurbritannia esimese kvartali lõplik SKT näit tuli eelmise kvartaliga võrreldes vastavalt ootustele +0,5%, kuid aastatagusega võrreldes oli kasv 1,6% vs oodatud 1,8%. Jooksevkonto puudujääk tuli 9,4 miljardit vs oodatud 4,7 miljardit GBPd ja eelmise kvartali puudujääk korrigeeriti 10,5 miljardi pealt 13 miljardi GBP peale. Ettevõtete investeeringukulutused tõusid aastaga 2,7% vs oodatud -3,2%.

    Naelsterling kaupleb hetkel 0,3% madalamal $1,5940 taseme juures.
  • Euroopa majandusasjade volinik Olli Rehni sõnul puudub Kreeka suhtes "plaan B": kui parlament ei võta kärpekavasid vastu, ei ole Kreeka maksejõuetust võimalik vältida.
  • Olli Rehni täna avaldatud seisukohtadele ilmus Reutersis täielikult vastupidine uudis, mille kohaselt on ELil plaan B, kui Kreeka parlament peaks kärpekava tagasi lükkama.
    The sources said planning had been going on for several weeks and was designed to ensure Greece gets the liquidity needed to avoid default in the absence of the next, 12 billion euro tranche of its emergency loan package, due by mid-July.

    As well as preventing default, the aim is to head off any contagion spreading from Greece to Ireland, Portugal and Spain, and the potential knock-on impact on Europe's banking system, with French and German banks large holders of Greek debt.

    The plan is distinct from a French proposal for private sector involvement in a second Greek bailout program and is being discussed despite European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and other senior EU officials repeatedly saying that "there is no Plan B for Greece."

    "There's been thinking about contingency for some time, for several weeks," one senior euro zone finance official involved in the Greek bailout told Reuters. The other sources seconded that line, saying there was "active planning" to step in if the Greek parliament rejects the austerity program.

    The sources would not confirm in detail what the current plan involved, but said several options had already been dismissed, including an EU bridging loan to Athens.
  • Kolm LinkedIni (LNKD) IPO underwriterit alustava LNKD aktsia katmist ostusoovitusega:

    BofA/Merrill Lynchi hinnasiht on $92.
    Morgan Stanley hinnasiht $88.
    JPMorgani hinnasiht $85.

    Selliseid hinnasihte õigustavad ainult ääretult kõrged ootused. Nt MSi baasstsenaariumi järgi peaks LNKD oma tulubaasi kasvatama 2010 aasta 243 mln dollari juurest 2015 aastaks 1648 mln dollarini. Selliste +50% GAGR järgi võib kuidagi LNKD 90 dollarilist hinnataset põhjendada, aga kui ka ettevõte juba ise tunnistas IPO prospektis, et nende tulude kasv aeglustub ja nad ei pruugi oma kasumlikust sälitada + enamus nende kasutajatest on passiivsed, siis tunduvad sellised ootused ikka väga roosilised.

    LNKD kaupleb eelturul +4% @ 79.47.
  • Kes jälgib biotehnoloogia sektorit ja riskida ei karda, siis on tal kindlasti huvitav lugeda ka Adam Feuersteini artiklit, kus on välja toodud 10 odavat biotehnoloogia aktsiat, mis idee poolest võivad tulevikus mitmekordistada investori raha, kuid sama suur on ka võimalus, et enamusest oma investeeritud rahast jäädakse ilma. Teisisõnu on tegemist firmadega, mis on arendamas suure potentsiaaliga ravimeid, kuid takistusi, mis edu saavutamiseks vaja ületada, on samuti palju ehk nagu Feuerstein ise ütleb:" High risk, high return is the name of this game."
  • Timothy Geithneri sõnul toetab USA Lagarde'i saamist IMFi juhiks.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NKE +4.5%, SMSC +2.9%.

    Select financial related names seeing modest strength: NBG +3.7%, UBS +1.9%, CS +1.2%.

    A few gold related stocks trading higher: UXG +3.5%, GFI +2% (strength also attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), AU +1.7%, GOLD +1.6%, .

    Select NKE peers are ticking higher in early trade: UA +1.7%, LULU +1%.

    Other news: SIGA +11.8% (SIGA Technologies to sell 1.7 mln courses of ST-246 to National Stockpile under modified BARDA contract), PIP +8.7% (up with SIGA), ACN +6.8% (will replace Marshall & Ilsley in the S&P 500 index), NWBI +6.6% (will replace AMERIGROUP in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), WPRT +6.2% (signs agreement with General Motors to research advanced natural gas engine technology for light-duty vehicles), YOKU +5.0% (Youku.com Premium officially launches deal with Warner Bros), LINC +3% (will replace Pre-Paid Legal Services in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), ALU +2.2% (traded higher overseas), SNY +1.4% (still checking), CMG +0.5% and SO +0.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: PLUG +9.3% (initiated with a Buy at boutique firm), LNKD +3.4% (initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan, hearing initiated with Buy at tier 1 firm), TJX +1.5% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SI -3.9%.

    Other news: SWSH -7.4% (ticking lower, still checking), NYMT -5% (commenced a 2 mln share common stock offering), SNH -3.5% (announces proposed public offering of 6,500,000 common shares), YRCW -3.8% (modestly pulling back following yesterday's 40%+ surge higher), EEP -3.7% (priced 7 mln shares of class A common units at $30/unit), NOK -0.8% (trading modestly lower with SI).

    Analyst comments: JASO -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at Brean Murray), DEO -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), MMI -0.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital).
  • April Case-Shiller 20-city Index -4.0% vs -3.9%, Briefing.com consensus
  • Stuck in the Muddle With You
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/28/2011 8:19 AM EDT

    "Flexibility -- in all aspects of life, the person with the most varied responses 'wins.'"
    --Kelly Perdew

    The market enjoyed some sizeable gains Monday, but volume was at the second-lowest level of the year and we have very mixed technical conditions. In a mixed market environment, the key to profits is an open mind and flexibility.

    Over the past couple of years, the great bulk of the gains have occurred on Mondays, and yesterday was no different. But what is different lately is that we have not had these V-shaped rallies that have served the bulls so well. What we are seeing is routine oversold bounce action and mixed follow-through. For example, we closed weak yesterday after rallying straight up all day. While it is certainly a relief to see some upside, there isn't anything in the action to suggest that we have made a lasting low and will now work steadily higher.

    The bulls have a number of positives working for them right now, such as the positive seasonality in front of the Fourth of July holiday, end-of-the-quarter window dressing and a fairly high level of skepticism. But we have been stuck in a downtrend for two months and the bulls will need to do quite a bit more to actually turn the trend back up and produce upside moment.

    The key to dealing with a market environment like this is to not be dogmatic but to stay flexible and open-minded. It has always been my view that market players should be more reactive rather than anticipatory. But in a low-volume, confused market like this one, it is particularly important.

    Market players love the idea the idea of being fully invested at the precise market low. Timing like that would ensure some nice profits, but it impossible to be that exact when it comes to the market. Most folks end up making bad buys and losing money when they try to catch the exact low.

    Rather than dive in all at once and hope that your timing proves to be good, it will often be more effective to be agnostic about the overall market but trade aggressively with a very short-term time frame. Institutional Wall Street and the business media will always push you to adopt a positive market view. They always want you to love and embrace the market, but they need cheerleaders and bulls to support them.

    Many market players prefer to hear optimistic market viewpoints, not because it helps them make money, but because it reassures them that the decisions they have already made are correct. There is always an inclination toward bullishness out there, and when the market bounces it can grow very quickly and make people worry about not having enough long exposure.

    Right now the market is in a muddle. It's stuck in a downtrend, but conditions are ripe for further bounce. The bias toward bullishness will attract buyers, but the news flow and the challenging technical conditions will prevent too much momentum from developing.

    It is a market for opportunistic, short-term trading. There is no reason to be overtly bearish or bullish right now. Take what the market gives you and don't worry about having a strong opinion about where things are headed.

    Greek protestors are on the street in Athens once again and we have very flat early indications. I expect to see another "Greece is saved" rally at any time, which will produce a bit of a short squeeze, which will in turn be assisted by positive seasonality and window dressing. I'm skeptical the bulls are going to be able to produce a lasting market turn at this point, but I'll give them some room to try.
  • Kreekas toimuvad protestiaktsioonid on muutunud vägivaldseks. BBC vahendusel:
    Police have fired tear gas in running battles with stone-throwing youths in Athens, where a 48-hour general strike is being held against a parliamentary vote on tough austerity measures.

    Some protesters started throwing stones and bottles at the police in one corner of the central Syntagma Square, with police firing tear gas to keep protesters back.

    The general strike has halted most public services, banks are closed and hospitals are operating on skeleton staff.

    Airports are shutting for hours at a time, with air traffic controllers walking out between 0800 and 1200 (0500-0900 GMT) and 1800 and 2200 (1500-1900 GMT). A number of flights were also cancelled at Athens international airport.

    Trains, buses and ferries are also affected.

    In Athens, the metro is the only form of public transport which will work "so as to allow Athenians to join the planned protests in the capital", metro drivers said.

    Protesters have blockaded the port of Pireus, near Athens, which links most Greek islands with the mainland.

    "The government has declared war and to this war we will answer back with war."
  • USA tarbijausaldus langes juunikuus madalaimale tasemele alates eelmise aasta novembrist:

    The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell from an upwardly revised 61.7 (from 60.8) in May to 58.5 in June. The Briefing.com consensus expected confidence to slip to 60.8.

  • The Fed purchased $4.62 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $17.89 bln
  • Spreadtrum Comms (SPRD): Hearing Muddy Waters out cautious on SPRD
  • Spreadtrum Communications, Inc. Hearing Morgan Stanley defends the name
    oops, mis küll nüüd juhtus
  • Kiri ise: http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MW_SPRD_OpenLetter_06282011.pdf
  • SPRD rohelises. Paistab, et iga artikkel ei mõju nii rängalt. Kõigil on siiber igasugustest.
  • French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde chosen as new head of the IMF, as expected-- Bloomberg TV
  • Dallas Fed President Fisher reiterates Fed stance that 2H11 will be stronger than 1H; Mr. Fisher believes it is possible to see growth as high as 4% in 2H
  • Youku.com (YOKU) pulling back from highs after Herb Greenberg on CNBC discusses today's news; notes that yesterday Pac Crest said YOKU is the most richly valued Chinese stock
  • Moody's has revised the outlook on the State of Connecticut's general obligation bond rating to negative from stable and affirmed the Aa2 rating

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