Börsipäev 1. juuli
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Kreeka parlament andis eile lõpliku heakskiidu uuele kärpekavale, millega on pall löödud taas Euroopa väljakule, kui ELi rahandusministrid peavad pühapäeval otsustama järgmise rahaeraldise kinnitamise. Selleks ajaks võiks turgude tähelepanu liikuda taas rohkem makromajanduslikele uudistele. Euroopa sessiooni ajal on täna oodata eurotsooni juunikuu töötleva tööstuse PMI näitu (kell 11.00), Suurbritannia PMI-d (kell 11.30) ja eurotsooni maikuu töötusemäära (kell 12.00). USA-s on aga kell 16.55 fookuses Michigani juuni sentimendiindeks, kell 17.00 aga jälgitakse ISM-i.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel üsna nulli lähedal ning muutuseta peaksid avanema ka Euroopa turud.
Meeldetuletuseks olgu öeldu, et ameeriklased saavad tänu iseseisvuspäevale nautida taas pikemat nädalavahetust ning esmaspäeval on USA turud seetõttu suletud. -
Samal ajal kui eurotsooni kasvu vedavate Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa PMI-d aitavad kogu regiooni näitajat üle 50 hoida, siis perifeeriariikides viitavad PMI indeksid juba töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse langusele. Täna avaldatud Hispaania PMI oli juunis 47,3 vs maikuu 48,2 ja oodatud 48,0. Hispaania SKT kavas esimeses kvartalis YoY 0,8%, mistõttu viitab kaks kuud järjest allpool 50 punkti taset jääv PMI, et teise kvartali kasv ähvardab tulla veelgi nõrgem. Samal ajal aga on valitsus oma eelarves arvestanud käesoleval aastal 1,3%lise majanduskasvuga, mis tähendab et aasta teises pooles peaks kasv paranema, et defitsiidi kärpimise sihte täita või siis läheb vaja täiendavaid meetmeid.
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Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse lõplik PMI oli 52.0 punkti ja sellega vastas esialgsele näitajale.
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Saksamaa juunikuu PMI tööstusindeks tuli kergelt alla ootuste: 54,6 vs oodatud 54,9 punkti. Euro on öö Aasia sessiooni tõusu enamjaolt käest andnud ja kaupleb hetkel avanemistaseme $1,4510 juures.
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Trend Suurbritannia töötlevas tööstuses on sarnane globaalsetele arengutele, kui juuni PMI tuli 51,3, mis oli madalam eelmise kuu 52,0 punktist ning oodatud 52,3 punktist.
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FT kirjutab, et Bundesbanki endine juht Axel Weber võtab üle Šveitsi panga UBSi esimehe koha.
Dirk Becker, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets, said the appointment of Mr Weber would bring the Swiss bank vital political contacts.
“We believe this is an excellent appointment for UBS as [Mr] Weber brings a lot of expertise in the banking industry, but also valuable political contacts, which could help the bank to find its way in the new regulatory environment.” -
Bloomberg vahendab Austria rahandusministeeriumi ametnikku, kelle kohaselt võib Kreeka saada uue abipaketi raames 85 miljardit eurot.
The package will total 190 billion euros to 195 billion euros, including the 110 billion euros from the original rescue a year ago, Thomas Wieser, head of the ministry’s economic policy and financial markets department, said at a briefing with Finance Minister Maria Fekter in Vienna late yesterday.
The International Monetary Fund will put up 30 percent of the new funds, with euro-region countries and private investors contributing the remaining 70 percent, Wieser said.
While German and French official have signaled a target of as much as 30 billion euros from private investors, “one can’t say reliably how much the private sector will contribute,” Fekter said. Any involvement has to be voluntary and can’t be allowed to trigger a credit default, she said.
Holders of Greek bonds are being asked to contribute to the plan by agreeing to roll over debt maturing in the next three years into longer-maturity bonds.
German banks have agreed to roll over Greek bonds maturing through 2014, which amount to about 2 billion euros, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday in Berlin. The country’s so-called bad banks will provide 1.2 billion euros as well, he said. -
USA väikeinvestorite sentimendi paranemine on jätkunud, kui järgneva kuue kuu aktsiaturgude väljavaate suhtes omab optimistlikku seisukohta 38,3% vastanutest (+0,9 protsendipunkti), märkides kõrgeimat taset alates aprilli keskpaigast. Neutraalse nägemusega investorite oskaal kerkis 4,7 protsendipunkti võrra 31,5% peale ning bearish nägemusega investorite osakaal kahanes 5,5 protsendipunkti 30,2%le. Investorid on viimaste päevade põrke järel veidi positiivsemaks muutunud, kuid ajaloolise keskmise lähedale jääv karude osakaal näitab, et teatud riskikartlikkus siiski püsib.
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Blackboard (BBBB) aktsiatega kauplemine peatatud. Ilmselt tuleb teadaanne firma ülevõtmisest, millest hiljuti palju juttu on olnud.
23. juunil oli selline uudis:
Blackboard Inc Providence Equity in exclusive talks to acquire BBBB; deal announcement could come in the next few days - US financial press -
Ettevõtete esimese kvartali majandustulemused olid tugevad nii Euroopas kui USA-s, kus puhaskasumiga löödi ootusi vastavalt 63% ja 73% juhtudest. Kuna globaalne makropilt on viimasel aja nõrgenenud, siis suureks küsimuseks on see, kas Q2 numbrid võivad märkida pöördepunkti selles trendis.
Deutsche usub, et Euroopa ettevõtete puhul võib tulemuste sära ära võtta valuutakursside mõju. Kui esimeses kvartalis mõjus YoY muutus aktsiakasumi kasvule soodsalt, siis teises kvartalis on euro dollari suhtes 13% tugevam (Q1 -1%), Šveitsi frank 27% tugevam (12,3%) ja Rootsi kroon 21% kallim (10,9%). Mõned ettevõtted, nagu näiteks Akzo Nobel, Actelion ja Lonza on seda probleemi juba kinnitanud.
Sellele vaatamata on konsensuse kasumiootused jäänud viimastel kuudel suhteliselt stabiilseks ning Stoxx 600 ettevõtete puhul prognoositakse 64%list EPSi kasvu. Kuna valuutakursi muutusest tingitud kahjum/kasum on mööduv, siis pigem jälgitakse seda, kuidas on käitunud nõudluse pool. Kui numbrid jäävad alla ootuse valuuta tõttu ja nõudlus halvenemise märke ei näita siis reaktsioon ei pruugi aktsiate suhteliselt soodsa valuatsiooni tõttu väga negatiivne olla. Deutsche kohaselt kaupleb stoxx 600 näiteks 10,9 2011.a kasumit ja 9,6x 2012.a kasumit. FTSE 100 aga 10,3x 2011.a EPS ja 9,7x 2012.a EPS. -
Itaalias võeti vastu 47 miljardi euro suurune kärpekava. Bloombergist:
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is seeking to shield Italy from debt-crisis contagion with 47 billion euros ($68 billion) in deficit-cutting measures intended to balance the budget by 2014.
The Cabinet passed the legislation yesterday, and the government will seek to push it through parliament in a confidence vote by the end of summer, Berlusconi told a press conference in Rome. He called on the opposition to back the measures, the bulk of which -- 40 billion euros -- will come in 2013 and 2014.
“Without a balanced budget, there can’t be development in the future,” Berlusconi said. “We all agreed on this.” -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SWHC +3.3% (ticking higher), APOL +3.1%.
M&A news: BBBB +12.8% (currently halted, Blackboard to be acquired by Providence Equity Partners for $45.00 per share in cash or $1.64 billion).
Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +3.5%, LYG +2.6%, RBS +2%, HBC +1.6%, CS +1%.3.
Other news: OSK +8.2% (acknowledged that Carl Icahn and related persons have filed a Schedule 13D with the SEC reporting that they have acquired beneficial ownership of 9.5% of the co's common stock), CTIC +6.4% (modestly rebounding), DNDN +6% (confirms increased capacity and significant reimbursement decisions supporting broad availability of PROVENGE), KBH +3.8% (provides additional detail on capital structure and liquidity position), AREX +3.7% (will replace California Pizza Kitchen in the S&P SmallCap 600), FRO +2.3% (still checking), .
Analyst comments: MBI +3.7% (Ticonderoga Discusses Favorable Court Ruling Against BAC). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XRTX -7.5%, DRI -1.2%.
Other news: EK -12.6% (ITC rules against Kodak in its patent dispute with AAPL and RIMM), CLSN -6.5% (Celsion announces $6.6 million registered direct offering), MEA -1.7% (files for share ~1.46 mln common stock offering by selling shareholders), JASO -1.6% (JA Solar to acquire wafer producer Solar Silicon Valley), PHG -1.4%and SI -1.2% (still checking).
Analyst comments: DAR -2.8% (ticking lower; downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm), CETV -2.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), RVBD -1.5% (Riverbed downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust). -
Morgan Stanley alustab täna 21Vianet (VNET) ja ChinaCashe (CCIH) katmist Osta soovitusega.
Morgan Stanley lisab nii VNET kui ka CCIH-i oma Research Tactical Idea (RTI) nimekirja koos hinnasihtidega vastavalt $ 17,00 ja $ 12,00.
We initiate coverage of 21Vianet (VNET) and ChinaCache (CCIH) at Overweight. The 30-50% drop in share prices in the past 2-3 months (as Chinese internet stocks have corrected) has made these fundamentally solid, high-growth businesses available at attractive valuations, in our view. Our PTs of US$17.00 / US$12.00 imply 26% / 30% upside.
Playing internet growth through infrastructure: We believe continued rapid growth in internet usage in China, particularly content-rich applications, and a rise in corporate IT outsourcing will drive explosive growth in demand for internet data centers (IDC) and content delivery network (CDN) services.
Analüütikud usuvad, et hiljutine tugev müügisurve Hiina aktsiates on viinud nii VNET kui ka CCIH aktsiad väga atraktiivsele hinnatasemele. Morgan Stanley sõnul on Hiina internetikasutajate tugev kasv ning firmad on samuti IT teenuseid rohkem sisse ostmas, mis omakorda kasvatab nõudlust andmekeskuste ja veebilehtede suuremahulise sisu kohaletoimetamise teenuste järele.
CCIH RTI:
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. CCIH's share price dropped ~50% in the past 2-3 months as part of a wider correction in Chinese Internet stocks. We believe valuation is attractive at 2012e EV/EBITDA of 5.2x vs. EBITDA CAGR of 23.2% over 2012-15e, which is further supported by management's recent announcement of a share buyback. We also believe market concern on margin pressure from rising bandwidth cost is overdone, as CCIH intends to diversify its customer base to less bandwidth-intensive industries such as mobile internet, enterprise & e-commerce, and government agencies, especially given the company continues to gain scale from a rapidly growing business.
We estimate that there is about an 80%+ or "highly likely" probability for the scenario.
Analüütikud usuvad, et CCHI aktsia tõuseb lähema 60 päeva jooksul kõrgemale, sest tugeva müügisurve tõttu on kaotanud aktsia 50% oma väärtusest ja nüüd on aktsiahind piisavalt atraktiivne, mida toetab juhtkonna hiljutine teadaanne aktsiate tagasiostu kohta.
VNET RTI:
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. VNET's share price dropped ~30% in the past two months as part of a wider correction in Chinese Internet stocks. We believe valuation is attractive at current levels, especially given the company's fast growing business with improving margins due to increasing emphasis in self-built data centers and managed network services. VNET's 2012e EV/EBITDA of 12.6x is at 5% discount to Rackspace in the US despite offering higher EBITDA CAGR of ~30% over 2012-15e vs. ~10% for Rackspace.
We estimate that there is about an 80%+ or "highly likely" probability for the scenario.
Ka VNET puhul viitavad analüütikud aktsia soodsale valuatsioonile ning usuvad, et aktsiahind järgmise 60 päeva jooksul tõuseb toetatuna firma kiirest kasvust ning paranevatest marginaalidest.
Mõlema idee puhul usub, et aktsiate hinnatõus leiab aset 80% tõenäosusega.
Mõlema Morgan Stanley idee puhul on tegemist Hiina päritolu aktsiatega, mistõttu on antud call ka äärmiselt spekulatiivne ja riskantne. Mõlemad aktsiad on ka üsna õhukesed, seega võivad olla liikumised ootamatud ning järsud. Teisalt pole kindlasti kõik Hiina firmad petuskeemid ja vähemalt ajutiselt on investorite hirm Hiina ettevõtete aktsiate ees taandumas.
Ettevaatus on kindlasti antud juhul omal kohal. -
A New Beginning
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/1/2011 8:36 AM EDT
Do not wait until the conditions are perfect to begin. Beginning makes the conditions perfect.
--Alan Cohen
A move of 4% in four days to end the second quarter of 2011 has left us in a difficult position as we begin a new quarter. It is impossible not to think there was at least some artificiality behind the furious rally the market has enjoyed this week. Conditions were very good for some sort of bounce, but the magnitude and lopsidedness of what we saw was stunning.
After two months of downtrending, a very sharp countertrend rally is not all that surprising. Market players are out of position and shorts are overconfident when we have been sinking for seven weeks. That helps to produce quick moves as they scramble to reposition when a rally kicks in.
One of the typical characteristics of countertrend rallies is that they tend to be lopsided and don't have many dips. The market does not make it easy for underinvested bulls to add new long inventory when it suddenly jumps like it did last week.
So now what? With the second quarter ended, do the conditions that helped create this big move relent and cause the market to reverse? Do the buyers who jumped in last week start looking for exits and cause a significant reversal?
Trading, of course, is never that simple. Technically, we have moved from oversold to overbought and we are now dealing with increased overhead resistance. Further upside may be more difficult, but that doesn't mean we are suddenly going to go straight down. Markets that move like this one are often surprisingly sticky to the upside. We are likely to see some increased selling pressure, but there are still positive factors at work.
In addition, this big rally has created a supply of underinvested bulls who are now anxious to buy dips. They are irritated that they didn't better profit from this move and don't want it to occur again, so they will be looking to buy their favorite stocks on softness.
One of the positives of big moves like this is that they bode well for the longer term. While we have overbought conditions to deal with in the near term, the shift in the action helps to put a floor under the market and provides a foundation for further upside down the road.
Ideally, some sort of correction or consolidation now that alleviates the overbought conditions will set the stage nicely when we kick off second-quarter earnings season in about two weeks.
In the meanwhile we have a very tough market to navigate. Volume will be extremely light today in front of the long holiday weekend, and there are very few good long setups after the move we have had recently. It will be surprising if the bulls have much appetite for any further chasing at this point, but if they want to put money to work they have little choice.
We have the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment numbers, the ISM's June manufacturing report, and construction spending and auto sales figures after the opening bell. With good Chicago PMI number yesterday, expectations are higher today. The reaction will set the tone for today's trading, but the bears have to be contemplating the opportunity to fade strength again, although that has been an abysmal strategy all week. -
June University of Michigan Sentiment- revised 71.5 vs 71.8 Briefing.com consensus; Prelim 71.8
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June ISM Manufacturing Index 55.3 vs 51.1 Briefing.com consensus; May 53.5
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Tänaste Morgan Stanley RTI ideede puhul läks klassikuid tsiteerides fifty-sixty, sest CCIH liikus üle ootuste hästi ja VNET-i liikumine jäi aga oodatust lahjemaks.
CCIH avanes $9,34 pealt ehk sisuliselt oma eelmise päeva sulgumishinna juurest ja on peale avanemist järjekindlat ülespoole liikunud. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 10,35 kandis, 11,8% plusspoolel.
VNET avanes samuti oma sulgmishinna lähedalt $ 13,88 pealt ja peale avanemist liikus korra kiirelt üles, käis ära $ 14,20 peal, aga see on ka päeva tipuks jäänud, sest hetkel kaupleb aktsia $14,08 kandis, 2,5% plusspoolel.
