Börsipäev 5. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Pidupäeva tõttu Ühendriikides algas nädal eile vaikselt ka Euroopas. Kuigi S&P suutis päeva alguses turgusid veidi ehmatada, öeldes et Kreeka võla plaanitav ülerullimine on nende silmis maksejõuetuse tunnus, siis sellele vaatamata suutis Stoxx 600 päeva lõpuks kergesse plussi jääda, ent seda viimase kolme nädala madalaima käibe juures. Moody’s on lubanud oma nägemuse teatavaks teha pärast seda, kui lõplik plaan on valmis. Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et kuna EKP saab laenata vaid tagatise alusel, mille emitendi finantstulevik pole ebakindel, siis võib „default“ või „selective default“ reitingu puhul muutuda Kreeka pankade finantseerimine sisuliselt võimatuks. Likviidsustugi on aga sellises olukorras kahtlemata kriitiline ja sestap üritavad ametnikud erasektoriga koostöös teha kõik, et S&P vastavale tasemele krediidireitingut ei langetaks.
Aasia on täna liikunud üsna väikeste muutuste juures erisuunaliselt, Euroopa tõotab avaneda 0,1% madalamal ning USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,1 kuni +0,3% plusspoolel. Tänasest makrokalendrist võiks välja tuua Rootsi keskpanga kohtumise, mille eel ootab konsensus intresside tõstmist 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra. Lisaks avaldatakse Euroopas juunikuu teenustesektori PMI indekseid (eurotsooni oma kell 11.00 ja Suurbritannia 11.30). Kell 12.00 raporteeritakse euroala maikuu jaemüügi muutus, USA-s on aga ainsaks statistikaks maikuu tehastetellimused. -
CNBC-st jooksis just läbi uudis, mille kohaselt on EKP nõus Kreeka valitsuse võlakirju tagatisena vastu võtma nii kaua kui vähemalt ühel suuremal krediidireitingu agentuuril pole määratud default reiting.
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Rootsi keskpank tõstis intressimäärasid 25 baaspunkti võrra 2% peale.
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Lisaks näeb Riksbank, et Rootsi majandus kasvab hetkel heal kiirusel ning üleüldine makropilt on tugev. Käesolevaks aastaks langetati SKT kasvu prognoosi 4,4% peale, kuid seda üsna marginaalse 20 baaspunkti võrra. Inflatsiooniks oodatakse tänavu 3,1% ning järgmisel aastal 2,7%.
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Tänasele turusentimendile on survet avaldamas osaliselt ka uudis, mille kohaselt teatas Moody's, et Hiina valitsus on kõvasti alahinnanud kohalike omavalitsuste laenukohustusi, mis võib omakorda seada ohtu Hiina pangad. Moody's andis mõista, et nad võivad alandada Hiina pangandussüsteemi reitingu väljavaate "negatiivse" peale. WSJ vahendusel:
In a report released Tuesday, Moody's analyzed June data from China's National Audit Office. The NAO concluded that Chinese banks have funded about CNY8.5 trillion ($1.3 trillion) of local government debt.
"When cross-examining the findings by the June 27 NAO report--in conjunction with reports from Chinese banking regulators--we find that the Chinese audit agency could be understating banks' exposures to local governments by as much as CNY3.5 trillion," said Yvonne Zhang, Moody's vice president. That amounts to about $540 billion.
It's the latest, and most severe, of several warnings Moody's has issued recently regarding Chinese banks' exposure to local government debt.
The CNY3.5 trillion in loans that NAO didn't account for are "most likely poorly documented and may pose the greatest risk of delinquency," said Zhang.
In light of its analysis, Moody's estimated that the Chinese banking system's economic non-performing loans could reach between 8% and 12% of total loans. That is closer to the 10% to 18% estimated in Moody's stress case than the 5% to 8% that constitutes the agency's base case. -
Saksamaa juunikuu lõplik PMI teenusesektori indeks 56,7 vs oodatud 58,3 punkti (maikuus oli näit 58,3 punkti). Eurotsooni PMI teenustesektori indeks 53,7 vs oodatud 54,2 punkti ja PMI koondindeks 53,3 vs oodatud 53,6 punkti. EURUSD kaupleb hetkel 0,35% madalamal 1,4485 taseme juures.
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Danske on täna avaldanud värske Põhjamaade majanduste väljavaate. Kellele pakub huvi, siis raportit on võimalik lugeda siit.
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Erinevalt majandusaktiivsuse tugevast langusest UK töötlevas tööstuses, on riigi teenindussektoris olukord märksa stabiilsem. Juuni teenustesektori PMI kerkis maikuu 53,8 punktilt 53,9 punktile, samas kui konsensus ootas langust 53,5 punktile.
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Eurotsooni maikuu jaemüük vähenes mullusega võrreldes -1,9%, samas kui Bloombergi konsensus ootas langust -0,6%. Lisaks korrigeeriti aprilli muutust 1,1% pealt 0,8% peale. EUR/USDi see eriti ei liigutanud ning vahetuskurss jätkab kauplemist jätkuvalt -0,3% madalamal @ 1,4480 USD.
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Tänane WSJ-s on artikkel, kus kirjutatakse, et Hiinal on käsil suurejooneline jälgimisprojekt, mille käigus plaanitakse Chongqing linna paigaldada pool miljonit kaamerat. Hiina valitsus väidab, et tervet linna kattev kaamerate võrgustik on vajalik kuritegude ennetamiseks, aga inimõiguste eest võitlevad advokaadid hoiatavad, et sel projektil on pigem poliitilise alatooniga eesmärgid.
Süsteem, mis järgmise 2-3 aasta jooksul Chongqingi (oma pindalalt 25% suurem kui New York) ehitatakse, on tõenäeoliselt kõige suuremahulisem ja keerulisem jälgmisprojekt kogu maailmas.
Artiklis kirjutatakse ka, et tõenäoliselt üheks kasusaajaks antud projektist on Cisco (CSCO), mis peaks projekti raames Hiinale müüma võrgundusvarustust, mis on vajalik selle suuremahulise süsteemi haldamiseks. Kuigi USA on keelanud Hiinasse eksportida kuritegevuse kontrollimisega seotud seadmeid (näiteks sõrmejälgede tuvastamise ja kontrollimise seadmeid), siis ei kehti see keeld kaameratele, mida saab kasutada mitmel erineval moel ja eesmärgil. Seetõttu on nimetatud projekt tõstatanud teema, kas ettevõtted peaksid olema vastutavad, kui välismaa valitsus kasutab nende tooteid poliitiseks mahasurumiseks.
Cisco kõrval on projekti vastu huvi tundmas ka Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), mis plaanib projekti varustada serveritega. Mõlema firma esindajad ei soovinud detailselt oma seotust projektiga arutada, kuid möönsid, et nende jaoks on see tellimus, mille puhul on ettevõtte mure tellimus vastavalt tellija nõudmistele täita, mitte mõistatada, mis eesmärgil tooteid kasutama hakatakse. -
Morgan Stanley ja Deutsche Bank on täna alustanud Yandex NV (YNDX) katmist hinnasihtidega $42 ja $40. Ettevõte alustas USA turul kauplemist 23. mail hinnaga $25 (lõplik IPO hind). Nii-öelda lead underwriter'id olid Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley ja Deutsche Bank.
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Gapping up
M&A news: SUG +2.8% (Energy Transfer Equity revises agreement to acquire Southern Union for $8.9 bln, including $5.1 bln in cash and ETE common units), BLUD (halted, Immucor to be acquired by TPG Capital for $27/share in cash), PHMD (halted, announces definitive merger agreement with Radiancy; co will issue ~14.5 mln shares of common stock to Radiancy shareholders).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +4.4%, AUY +3.3%, ABX +2.3%, SLV +2.2%, HL +2.0%, AG +1.9%, AEM +1.9%, EGO +1.9%, RIO +1.6%, AU +1.3%, GLD +1%, IAG +0.9%, GOLD +0.5%.
Other news: KKR +8.6% (The Go Daddy Group announced it has signed a definitive agreement to receive a strategic investment and enter into a partnership with Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), Silver Lake and Technology Crossover Ventures), INO +8.2% (reports novel data published suggesting synthetic DNA vaccine protects against HIV in non-human primates), DEO +2.6% (Diageo plc seeing early strength following reports the co is near deal to redevelop Dublin brewery), BIDU +2.4% (signed deal with MSFT to offer English search results), ALU +2% (still checking), RDS.A +1.5% (still checking), CVH +1.4% (early strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper).
Analyst comments: CLWR +8.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), SNDK +2.8% (ticking higher; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), MTW +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee), GOOG +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore; tgt raised to $670 from $620). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NTCT -17.4% (light volume), RVSN -5.6% (ticking lower).
Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -3.1%, DB -2%, UBS -1.9%, STD -1.7%.
Other news: AIXG -4.6% (still checking), JOE -3.2% (exercises early termination of $125 mln credit line effective July 1; co will not incur any prepayment penalties).
Analyst comments: COG -2.6% (downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman), TEF -2.4% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura), MDT -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), GIS -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), RVBD -1.9% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), SAI -1.1% (downgraded to Negative from Neutral at Susquehanna). -
Momentum vs. Consolidation
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/5/2011 8:28 AM EDT
What is without periods of rest will not endure.
--Ovid
Momentum versus taking a rest. That is the dilemma presented by this market. Does last week's powerful buying attract more buying, or do the bulls finally take a break and let things consolidate?
The action last week was truly remarkable. According to Sentimentrader.com, it was only the tenth time since 1928 that the S&P 500 was up 0.75% for five straight days. Since market players don't expect the market to act that way, many found themselves out of position and greatly frustrated when the strength continued all week -- even when it appeared to be far too extended.
The big danger is becoming too bearish, because the market is so obviously in need of some sort of consolidation or rest. Even if you think the market is destined to continue going up at the same remarkable pace, it is extremely difficult to find new entries and put any money to work. Even the biggest bulls have to have some doubt that the action can stay so lopsided much longer.
While we have to be on guard for some sort of pullback or consolidation, we also have to be respectful of the fact that the market created quite a bit of momentum recently. Momentum typically doesn't just reverse and cause the market to give back its gains. Powerful moves create underinvested bulls who are anxious to buy dips and pullbacks. They also help to build up sentiment and give bulls the confidence to be more aggressive. Momentum creates support that helps keep trends going.
One of the difficulties of last week's move is that it felt manipulated to a great degree because it occurred at the end of the quarter and ahead of a holiday. It seemed logical to look for it to reverse when the artificial driving forces relented, but that didn't happen. Too many bears were out of position, expecting the upside pressure caused by window dressing at the end of the quarter to quickly reverse. They were wrong and ended up feeding the rally further when they had to reposition.
While the buy-and-hold crowd that is always highly invested may love this sort of action, it causes great frustration for active traders who are unable to jump on to this speeding train of a market. There just aren't many good entry points when we go up 0.75% or more for five straight days. On the other hand, trying to short this action has been a prescription for pain.
Given how extended the market is, there is little choice but to look for some sort of rest; however, we shouldn't expect the market to simply collapse and go straight back down. There will be underlying support and a lot of underinvested bulls looking for entries. Look for temporary softness in the near term, but don't expect the market to totally reverse.
If you are holding a high level of cash, like I am, it's a challenging environment with so few attractive entry points. Putting money to work is a real challenge and if you are impatient and undisciplined, the risk of bad entries is very high. So, while we want to look for stocks to rest, we also want to keep digging hard for attractive technical setups.
Many bears are hoping this market is going to suddenly reverse since last week's buying seemed so manipulated and fake. They may have a point, but the market is typically very stingy about giving back anything when it makes a move like that. Expect a rest, not a collapse. -
Netflix (NFLX) aktsiad on tegemas kõigi aegade tippe, sest ettevõtte teatas oma plaanist laieneda Ladina-Ameerikasse.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 280 kandis, 4,6% plusspoolel. -
May Factory Orders +0.8% vs +1.0% Briefing.com consensus
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Jätkates NFLX-ga, siis veel üks analüüsimaja üritab tabada tippu ning alustab aktsia katmist Müü reitinguga.
Dawson James annab NFLX-le hinnasihiks $ 181,00 ja ütleb, et ettevõtte kasvu on pidurdamas nii suurenevad kulud kui ka tihenev konkurents. -
Päevasisene reitingumuutus Deutsche Bankilt on justkui kammitsaist vabastanud Hiina internetiaktsia Sina (SINA), mis on viimase veerand tunniga rallinud ligi 5 punkti kõrgemale ehk $ 111 pealt $ 116 taseme alla.
Deutsche Bank, millel oli Müü reiting SINA-le on otsustanud firma suhtes mõnevõrra leebuda ning otsustas tõsta oma reitingu Hoia peale koos $ 98 hinnasihiga (endine hinnasiht $ 54). -
Moody's downgrades Portugal to Ba2 with a negative outlook from Baa1
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Nelli, Deutsche Bank omab jah SINA-le sellist mõju. Sarnane oli ka nende novembrikuine downgrade reaktsioon Buy pealt Neutralile. Siis samuti 5-6 punkti kiiret ülesliikumist. :)
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ymeramees, äkki turuosalised sellest lähtusidki, et kui tookord downgrade Hoia peale sellise ralli korraldas, siis upgrade Hoia peale tekitab vähemalt samaväärse liikumise? :)
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@KeithMcCullough küsib et mis inimesed ometi on eestlased (ja rumeenlased)?
@KeithMcCullough
http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/statuses/88331942281494528
"in case you missed it - another ratings boob, Fitch, upgrades Romania today"
@KeithMcCullough
http://twitter.com/#!/KeithMcCullough/statuses/88332246985084929
"actually they also upgraded Estonia - who in God's good name are these people?"
Pakkuge talle oma versioon kes on eestlased :D :D :D -
who the fuck is Keith McCullough?
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what the fuck is Hedgeye Risk Management?
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How the hell can TaivoS ask so many right questions?
