Börsipäev 6. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile otsustas Moody’s langetada Portugali krediidireitingu nelja pügala võrra Baa1 pealt Ba2 peale, säilitades negatiivse väljavaate, kuid nentides, et teatud tingimuste täitumisel võidakse see tõsta neutraalse peale. Kokkuvõtvalt usub reitinguagentuur, et Portugal ei suuda eelarvedefitsiidi vähendamise ja võlakoorma stabiliseerimise eesmärke täita ning tõenäoliselt vajatakse veel ühte laenuabi – ehk põhimõtteliselt astutakse sama teed, mida hetkel käib Kreeka. Riigi finantsväljavaade paraneks Moody’se silmis juhul, kui Portugal suudaks täita või isegi ületada praeguse laenupaketiga kaasnenud eesmärgid või järgmise laenupaketi üheks tingimuseks pole erasektori kaasamine.
USA aktsiaturud väga tugevat reaktsiooni selle peale ei näidanud ning Euroopa indeksid tõotavad uut päeva alustada 0,2% plusspoolel.
Tänastest makrouudistest võiks esile tõsta eurotsooni esimese kvartali SKT teise korrigeerimise kell 12.00, Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse tellimuste maikuu muutuse kell 13.00, USA Challenger job cuts kell 14.30 ja ISM teenustesektori juuni indeksi kell 17.00. -
Vilniuse börsil on täna kauplemispüha ning kauplemist ei toimu.
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Stefan tõi Hiina keskpanga tänase intressitõstmise ühes teises foorumis välja, lisan selle infokillu ka siia. Alates homsest on laenamine siis 0,25 protsendipunkti võrra kallim. USA indeksite futuurid on terve Euroopa sessiooni kaubelnud 0,2-0,3% miinuspoolel ning otsus pole täiendavalt allapoole neid toonud.
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Challenger Report shows June job cuts reach 41,432; mid-year total of 245,806 is lowest in 11 years
The number of planned job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers increased by 4,297 or 11.6% to 41,432 in June. Despite the increase, the overall pace of downsizing through the first half of 2011 is at the lowest level since 2000, according the latest report on downsizing activity released Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. The June increase is the second in as many months. Announced layoffs in May were up 2.0% to 37,135, after falling to a four-month low of 36,490 in April. -
Mida Obama eile õhtul rääkis? Keegi teab?
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Lühidalt kokkuvõttes ei olnud Obama nõus aktsepteerima lühiajalist lahendust riigi eelarve defitsiidi vähendamise osas ning kutsus demokraatide ja vabariiklaste juhte neljapäeval Valgesse majja, et läbirääkimisi edendada ning järgmise kahe nädalaga lõplik kokkulepe saavutada ehk jõuda asjaga ühele poole enne 2. augustit. Reutersist võib selle kohta lugeda pikemalt
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Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse kommentaariga USA autotööstuse kohta ning tõstab sektori reitingu Atraktiivse peale.
Analüütikud toovad välja neli põhjust, miks nad autotööstuse osas positiivseks muutunud on:
Four factors drive our Industry View upgrade:
1. US SAAR expectations have fallen sharply: Unprecedented supply disruption has distorted the validity of 2011 SAAR while our 2012 estimate of 15m SAAR is easily 1m units above expectations, with the pressures of pent-up demand building even further.
Ootused SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) osas on järsult langenud ja tarneprobleemid on käesoleva aasta väljavaated muidugi rikkunud, kuid 2012. Aastani on analüütikute arvates piisavalt aega, et tööstus suudaks ennast taas nö joonele viia.
2. Fears of Japanese price war are overdone: While Japanese incentives will undoubtedly rise sharply as dealer supply returns to normal, as a group we believe their relative product attractiveness and freshness will lag the industry for the next 24 to 36 months.
Teiseks on analüütikute arvates hirm Jaapani hinnasõja ees üle võimendatud. Kahtlemata suurendatakse stiimulprogramme oluliselt, kuniks olukord normaliseerub, aga nemad prognoosivad, et Jaapani nö tooteatraktiivsuse taastumine võtab aega veel vähemalt 24-36 kuud.
3. Fears of mix deterioration are overdone. A mid $3 gasoline price is a ‘sweet spot’ that balances the need to replace an 11-year-old guzzling car park without shrinking miles driven and tripping up the economy.
Praegune kütusehind on just õigel tasemel, mis tasakaalustab vajadust vahetada välja 11 aastat vana autopark ilma sõidumiile vähendamata.
4.Poor stock performance reflects significantly lower investor sentiment: NA auto stocks are down 9.2% YTD with Ford and GM being two of the vorst performing auto stocks in the world this year, discounting sustainable margins half our estimates.
Autofirmade aktsiate käitumine peegeldab ka ilmekalt investorite meeleolu.
We are replacing Ford with GM as our top pick and as an MS Best Idea. We believe GM offers a powerful combination of positive near-term earnings revisions and negative investor sentiment held up by open-ended questions surrounding the US Treasury hangover, UAW negotiations and the deployment of GM’s fortress balance sheet .
Morgan Stanley analüütikud võtavad General Motors (GM)- i oma parimaks ideeks Ford (F) asemel.
Ford ja General Motorsi aktsiad on tõepoolest investorite poolt hüljatud, sest mõlemad aktsiad on viimaste kuude jooksul kaotanud ligi 20% oma väärtusest. Morgan Stanley prognoosib USA autosektorile paremaid aegu ning arvestades suhteliselt negatiivset sentimenti võiks GM täna mõningast tähelepanu leida.
GM kaupleb eelturul $ 31,23 kandis, 1,2% plusspoolel. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HTCH +10.1% (ticking higher).
Other news: CBAK +15.4% (still checking), DPTR +8.9% (announces the closing of the non-core asset sale and the initiation of a strategic alternatives process), CTCH +4.7% (signed new agreements with Bullguard and with Neo Technology), GFI +1.4% (secures new loan facility).
Analyst comments: AXL +4.7% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc), SAVE +1.6% (initiated with a Buy at Dahlman Rose), GM +1.3% (strength attributed to positive mention at tier 1 firm). -
Gapping down
Select financial related names showing weakness: AIB -5.8%, RBS -3.7%, NBG -3.6%, STD -3.5%, BCS -3.4%, BBVA -2.8%, CS -2.7%, DB -2.6%, UBS -1.9%, HBC -1.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -2.0%, STO -1.6%, BP -1.4%, TOT -0.7%, RDS.A -0.4%.
Other news: DRWI -6.3% (announced that Brian McCormack, Vice President of Worldwide Sales has submitted his resignation and will be leaving the company), ZLCS -4.9% (modestly pulling back), OVTI -4.1% (still checking), SBNY -2.9% (announced today an underwritten public offering of 4.1 million shares of its common stock), WPPGY -2.5% (trading lower following reports that the co plans to acquire stake in Mindset Advertising), TOO -1.2% (announces direct equity placement; agrees to sell 0.7 mln common units to an institutional investor for net proceeds), ASML -1.2% (still checking for anything specific), DCI -0.6% (ticking lower, announces Officer Changes; CFO to leave).
Analyst comments: AIXG -4.2% (trading lower following target price cut at Goldman), BGS -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), OC -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), WLT -1.2% (Walter Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Davenport), NFLX -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merriman - on near term margin pressures). -
Overbought and in Need of a Rest
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/6/2011 8:40 AM EDT
If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.
--Zen Proverb
The market consolidated its outsized gains to a small degree Tuesday but did little to relieve the extended technical conditions that have quickly developed. In fact, continued strength in some of the big-cap favorites like Netflix (NFLX) , Amazon (AMZN) and Baidu (BIDU) resulted in further overbought conditions for the Nasdaq.
While the media celebrates this sort of one-way action, it presents a major challenge for active market players. There is just no easy way to put new capital to work unless you are undisciplined in your approach. And it has been an absolute disaster for the bears, who have been trying to fight this strength for a week now.
The challenge of trading this sort of action is that it can be so difficult to fully embrace because it is at odds with logic and common sense. Even if there have been positive fundamental developments, it isn't very rational that in the course of a week we go from near collapse to outright euphoria. Transitions of that sort usually don't occur so instantaneously and without pause. There is normally back-and-forth action and a period of adjustment that allows us to mentally adapt, but that has not been the case at all with this market.
What adds to the challenge of being in tune with this strong market is that the bears have a very good argument when they claim that the market was manipulated to the upside last week with window dressing, pre-holiday trading and the totally unsurprising Greece bailout news. The bears didn't expect the surge in the Purchasing Managers Index and that is what really trapped them as they anticipated that the market would regain rationality.
The challenge now is that everyone knows the market is overbought and the easy thing to do is to try to fight it. It is almost too obvious that we need a rest at this point, but the folks who are waiting for it to happen so they can make some moves are extremely frustrated and, ironically, preventing it from happening.
While we want to recognize that the market is extended and in need of a rest, we shouldn't expect a collapse or a major selloff. Markets that go up like this one tend to be sticky to the upside because they have created a big crowd of underinvested bulls and nervous bears who are already feeling stressed. It doesn't take much to push them to act.
It is always a major challenge to be in tune with the market action during these V-shaped rallies. You have to remember that the market is not a person that we can expect to act rationally. It is an emotional and hyperactive crowd that is pushed around by a variety of forces with separate agendas. If we start believing the market is going to act in a manner that we think is logical, we will likely be disappointed.
We have a little red on the screens in the early going as China raised interest rates a quarter of a point and Europe contemplates the downgrade of Portugal's sovereign debt. We have jobs news coming in the next couple of days, which will become the main focus, but the big issue on everyone's mind is how is this market will deal with the obvious overbought technical conditions.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned. -
June ISM Services Index 53.3 vs 54.0 Briefing.com consensus; May 54.6
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Paraku Morgan Stanley positiivne nägemus USA autotööstuse tuleviku suhtes investoreid täna eriti ei sütitanud ning GM reaktsioon jäi väga tagasihoidlikuks. Aktsia avanes $ 31,37 pealt ning tegi ka paar hädist katset ülespoole liikuda, kuid päeva tipuks jäi $ 31,50 tase ja hetkel on aktsia taas oma avanemistaseme juures tagasi.
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Volume Alert: JA Solar falls ~10% in past 20 minutes
