Börsipäev 8. juuli
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Positiivselt üllatav makro annab jätkuvalt taganttõukeid aktsiaturgudele, kergitades S&P 500 indeksit eile 1% jagu, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 10. maist. Euroopat esindav Stoxx 600 andis eile päeva lõpus pisut järele, kuid on selle võrra alustamas päeva kõrgemal. Stoxx 600 on tagasi jõudnud 1. juuni tippude juurde.
Tähelepanu keskpunktis on täna USA juunikuu tööturustatistika, mille kohaselt oodatakse väljaspool põllumajandussektorit 80K töökoha loomist. Eilne ADP ületas tugevalt ootusi ning selles valguses tõstis näiteks Deutsche Bank oma prognoosi 100K pealt 175K peale. -
Lisan siia veel graafiku (Reuters), mis näitab hästi USA tööturu tegelikku seisukorda. Kollane joon tähistab USA pikaajalist töötusmäära (tööta 27 nädalat või rohkem) protsentuaalsena tervest töötusmäärast.
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Kristjan Kaar
Lisan siia veel graafiku (Reuters), mis näitab hästi USA tööturu tegelikku seisukorda. Kollane joon tähistab USA pikaajalist töötusmäära (tööta 27 nädalat või rohkem) protsentuaalsena tervest töötusmäärast.
hetkel makstakse töötu abiraha ka üle 27 nädala tööta olnutele, kas kõigi varasemate majanduslanguste ajal oli ka nii? 2002-2003 maksti küll mõnda aega, varasemate kohta mul hetkel info puudub, juhul kui ei makstud, siis ei ole graafik päris hästi võrreldav
Federal rules are drawn by the United States Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. For most states, the maximum period for receiving benefits is 26 weeks. There is an extended benefit program (authorized through the Social Security Acts) that may be triggered by state economic conditions. Congress has often passed temporary programs to extend benefits during economic recessions. This was done with the Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation (TEUC) program in 2002-2003, which has since expired, and remained in force through June 2, 2010, with the Extended Unemployment Compensation 2008 legislation. In July, legislation that provides an extension of federal extended unemployment benefits through November was signed by the President. The extension restored unemployment benefits to the 2.3 million unemployed Americans who had run out of basic unemployment benefits. However, the current extensions in place expire on November 30 unless legislation is passed by Congress providing for an additional extension. Congress is considering extending the Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation program again -
Suur osa inimestest on tööturul pidevalt käibelt väljas. Pärast majanduslanguse lõppu ei saa inimesed mitte tööle vaid inimkapitali kvaliteedi halvenemine või halb olukord jätab nad pikaks tööta. Q: Kuidas tead et uus majanduslangus on ukse ees? A: Kõik jobud on tööle võetud.
Võib ka juhtuda et osad inimesed ei naasegi tööturule. Nad lähevad pensionile. Oleks huvitav näha sama graafikut vanuseliste gruppidena -
Saksamaa maikuu kaubandusbilansi ülejääk 14,8 miljardit vs oodatud 12,2 miljardit eurot. Eksport kasvas 4,3% vs oodatud 1,5% (M/M) ja import kasvas samal perioodil 3,7% vs oodatud 1,5%.
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Euro on pärast eilset rallit sattunud uuesti surve alla ja on hetkeseisuga kauplemas 0,7% madalamal $1,4260 juures. USA indeksite futuurid on langenud kergesse miinusesse ja peale DAXi on ka kõik peamised Euroopa futuurid miinuses.
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Morgan Stanley alandab täna Wall Street`i ühe lemmiklapse Google (GOOG)-i reitingu Osta pealt Hoia peale ja hinnasihi $ 645 pealt $ 600 peale.
Debate #1: Will margins decline from here? Yes. Given Google’s aggressive hiring plans, rising compensation expense, and significant advertising spend on Chrome & other Google products, we expect EBITDA margin to decline in C2011 / C2012.
Debate #2: Will “newer” businesses drive near-term revenue outperformance? No. We believe the consensus is too optimistic on the net revenue contribution of newer businesses, such as DoubleClick, YouTube, AdMob, Android Market, and mobile search. In 2011, we expect search & contextual ads to contribute ~90% of Google’s net revenue.
Debate #3: Will investments in local eCommerce and / or social pay-off? Too early to tell. We are encouraged by early progress of Google Plus and Google Offers, but Google faces stiff competition from incumbents who have first mover advantage. Th pay-offs of such endeavors may be longer-term.
Morgan Stanely analüütikud usuvad, et ettevõtte marginaalid satuvad surve alla, kuna Google`l on kavas agressiivne uute töötajate värbamine ja sellele lisaks kulutab firma hoogsalt raha ka reklaami peale (Chrome ja teised tooted).
Teiseks arvavad analüütikud, et konsensus on firma uute toodete osas liiga optimistlik ning hetkel on ka väga raske öelda, millal investeeringud uutesse toodetesse ja teenustesse ennast ära tasuma hakkavad, kuna kiiret arengut takistab ka tihe konkurents. -
JinkoSolar Holding (JKS) upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman
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June Nonfarm Private Payrolls 57K vs 110K Briefing.com consensus
June Nonfarm Payrolls 18K vs 80K Briefing.com consensus
June Unemployment Rate 9.2% vs 9.1% Briefing.com consensus
Raport oodatust oluliselt kehvem ja futuurid on praeguseks 0,8-1,0% miinusesse vajunud, kuld teeb päeva tippe @ 1539,0 USD (+0,5%) -
Buffet annab Bloombergis live intervjuud ja tal vajus ka nägu ära kui neid numbreid kuulis.
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mõned reivisingud ka nagu tavaks
May Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 25K from 54K; April Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 217K from 232K -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FCN +2.1%.
Other news: LOCM +18.7% (disclosed Google Services Agreement "for the implementation by Local.com of certain advertising and search services on certain websites"), AMLN +8.3% and ALKS +4% (Exenatide tQT study showed no prolongation of QT interval), CHK +3.8% (filed for IPO of unit) APP +3.8% (ticking higher on reports that the CEO said the co received cash from investors), AVL +3.2% (updated prefeasibility study confirms significantly improved economics for the Nechalacho REE Deposit, Thor Lake ), BA +1% (receives a $119.4 mln contract - Dept. of Defense).
Analyst comments: GERN +4.8% (initiated with Overweight at JPMorgan), MGM +1.8% (initiated with Outperform at Credit Agricole), JKS +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman), FTR +1.5% (upgraded to Add from Neutral at Citadel), XEC +1.5% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), TJX +1.2% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup and upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ticonderoga), NFX +0.8% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SNY +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XXIA -20.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), LEDS -12.9%, MFLX -9.8%, GBX -5.3%, WDFC -2.8%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -3.7%, STD -3.4%, RBS -2.9%, LYG -1.6%, ING -1.3%, DB -1.2%, UBS -1.1%, CS -1%, HBC -0.7%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: E -2.4%, SDRL -2.3%, SLB -1.5%, RDS.A -0.7%.
Other news: ALV -6% (ticking lower, provides information on antitrust inquiries; investigations still ongoing), SVM -4.3% (reported before the open yesterday resource and reserves update at Ying silver-lead-zinc mining district, Henan Province, China), PIP -4.1% (filed for a $100 mln mixed shelf offering), TI -3.4% (reports indicate the co is nearing deal to purchase AES Atimus), MWE -3.4% (announces public offering of 3.2 mln common units), NOK -2.5% (still checking), TS -2.5% (still checking), CREE -2.2% (lower with LEDS).
Analyst comments: SOL -2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), WFR -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Ticonderoga), GOOG -1.1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), FBR -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), VMED -0.8% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade). -
tea kas nüüd antakse ka karudele võimalus?
tehniline setup ja uudised toetaks nagu -
Not Easily Accessible
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/8/2011 7:52 AM EDT
"We must look for the opportunity in every difficulty instead of being paralyzed at the thought of the difficulty in every opportunity."
-- Unknown
After an astounding straight-up jump of nearly 8% over eight days, we are awaiting jobs news, which will help determine if all this newly found optimism is warranted. Just a short time ago, worries were growing over the possibility of a double-dip recession, but a couple good economic reports, the bailout of Greece and a big window-dressing rally into the end of the quarter produced a complete turnabout in the action.
What really helped to drive the action was that so many market players were unprepared for the sudden jump. We were oversold and ready for some sort of bounce, with the quarter drawing to a close, but the market refused to roll over when many thought it would and that trapped shorts and sent the underinvested bulls into a panic.
So does this big move mean that the worries of a couple weeks ago are over and that it's smooth sailing from here? Of course not. The market is never that easy. While it is extremely unlikely that the pace of the recent advance will continue, we also have to recognize that the big spike up has created conditions that will help support further upside. We are in desperate need of some consolidation at this point, but we have regained much technical support and there will be a big supply of buyers looking to buy pullbacks, which will help to hold us up.
I've mentioned several times recently that we should not expect this market to suddenly fall apart after the sort of action we have seen. Even if you are convinced that nothing fundamental has changed recently, this sort of move makes market players upset that they have missed out, and they will help to hold things up as they look to jump in. They want to buy pullbacks and will be determined not to be left behind when the market makes its next big move up.
Even if this rally turns out to be just a highly manipulated short-term blip, it will still take some time for a new top to form and for a pullback to gain steam. We should see some choppiness for a while as recent buyers lock in gains and dip-buyers look for entries. Some back-and-forth action would be highly likely, and don't be at all surprised to see yesterday's gap-up open filled fairly quickly as we work off the overbought conditions.
Unless you are a buy-and-hold investor who was fully long going into this move, it has been an extremely challenging market lately. There simply has not been an easy entry points as we have had no dips (or even pauses) over the last eight days. Those who were waiting for just some slight hesitation before they jumped in never saw it. If it isn't your style to chase strength, then you were completely shut out of this market.
What adds to the challenge of a market that acts like this is that the media and buy-and-hold types are understandably quite euphoric over this action. To the average market participant who stays heavily long and doesn't trade much, there is nothing better than a market that acts like this one has recently. They don't understand all the whining of traders when stocks are flying and probably take some pleasure in the fact that the aggressive market timers, who also sound so clever, are having such a hard time.
We are set up for a sell-the-news reaction to the jobs news this morning, but even if we do dip, look for some support as underinvested bulls try to put some money to work. Once again, a pullback is almost too obvious to work, and it is probably much more likely we have choppy action rather than a complete and total reversal on a bad number.
We'll see what the number brings and then go from there. -
Doug Kass: The so-called economic geniuses of Wall Street really have no clue. What is really astonishing to me is that they are still employed! (Memo to the media: hold them under fire for their poor prognostications in the weeks ahead.)Structural unemployment is a real issue and will be a consistent drag on domestic economic growth so are the foreceful headwinds of fiscal imbalances at the local, state and federal levels. (See the municipal job losses in today's report!)
Finally, sell stocks as the risk/reward is now unfavorable. -
May Consumer Credit $5.1 bln vs $3.5 bln Briefing.com consensus
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momentum
Võib ka juhtuda et osad inimesed ei naasegi tööturule. Nad lähevad pensionile. Oleks huvitav näha sama graafikut vanuseliste gruppidena
Oleks huvitav näha graafikut, läbi aastakümnete, kus inimesed on töötegemise lõpetanud ja pensionile läinud, et kas see on pidev ja ühtlane protsess või toimub lainetena. Ja kas need lained on korrelatsioonis tööturu olukorraga.
