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Börsipäev 11. juuli

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  • Pärast rohkest makrost ja keskpankade kohtumistest pakatanud nädalat saavad eelseisvad päevad makrouudiste osas olema rahulikumad. Küll aga hoiab investoreid tagajalgadel arutelu USA võlalimiidi tõstmise üle, Euroopa võlakriisi võimalik levimine Itaaliasse ja algav tulemustehooaeg.

    Tänasest makrokalendrist väärib vaid mainimist euroala rahandusministrite kohtumine, kus suurem tähelepanu peaks langema Kreekale ning erasektori osalemisele võla ülerullimises. Eile kirjutas aga Reuters, et Herman Van Rompuy on tänaseks kokku kutsunud erakorralise koosoleku arutamaks viimase aja sündmuste arenguid Itaalia osas.

    Pärast USA turgude sulgumist avaldab oma teise kvartali majandusnäitajad Alcoa, avades sellega mitteametlikult tulemustehooaja ning olles sellega teatud määral ka baromeetriks. Üldiselt oodatakse USA ettevõtete puhul jätkuvat kasumikasvu, kuid tempo peaks olema mõnevõrra nõrgem võrreldes esimese kvartaliga seoses Jaapani maavärina tagajärgede ja toorainete hinnatõusuga. FactSet Research ootab keskmiseks kasumikasvuks 12,7% (YoY), mida on viimaste nädalate jooksul pisut madalamale toodud (varem +14,2%). Esimeses kvartalis oli kasvuks 19%. Kuigi majanduskeskkond on teises kvartalis jahtunud mitmel pool maailmas, siis ettevõtted on sellele vaatamata jäänud oma esialgsetele prognoosidele kindlaks – allapoole on ootusi toonud 66 ettevõtet, mis on võrdne esimese kvartali statistikaga.
  • Goldman Sachsi vahendusel üks graafik, millelt on näha, et kui Q2 EPS ootuseid on allapoole toodud siis järgnevate kvartalite prognoosid püsivad samal tasemel. Seega tulemustehooajal saab üks oluline kuulamiskoht olema see, mida ettevõtted ise räägivad globaalsest majandusest teisel poolaastal ning kas nähakse vajadust kärpida oma prognoose.
  • Mure Itaalia olukorra pärast on eelkõige peegeldumas läbi riigi finantssektori, seda eriti läinud nädalal, mil riigi suurima panga, Unicrediti aktsia odavnes tervelt -19%. Eelmise nädala sell-off Itaalia aktsia- ja võlakirjaturgudel on üks tegurreid, mis Van Rompuy tänase miitingu kokku kutsus. Spekulatiivsuse vähendamiseks otsustas riigi finantsturgude regulatiivorgan kehtestada eile kuni 9-nda septembrini lühikeseks müügi puhul karmimad raporteerimise tingimused.
  • EUR/USD on kauplemas -0,7% madalamal @ 1,4166 USD ja sellega vedanud päeva põhjade juurde ka USA indeksite futuurid, mis hetkel liiguvad 0,6-0,8% punases. Euroopa on aga avanemas -0,3-0,8% madalamal võrreldes reedese sulgumisega.
  • David Stockman: Ben Bernanke is finished! See on küll juba mõned nädalad vana, kuid Ronal Reagani eelarvejuht andis CNBCle hea intervjuu, kus ta räägib USA seisust ja kriisist nii nagu asjad on.
  • http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5ffeabf0-ab09-11e0-b4d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RmPcztXR

    "Prantsuse plaan" kaput, elagu default :-)
  • Wolfgang Münchau kirjutab tänases FT-s, et reitinguagentuurid on teinud Kreeka, Portugali ja teiste perifeeriariikide võlakirjade reitinguid kärpides teene, suunates eurooplasi strateegiani, mis pikaajaliselt on jätkusuutlik. Münchau silmis on ainuke mõistlik pääsetee erasektori kaasamiseks EFSF-i läbi võla swapi organiseerimine. Link

    The impasse leaves us with a single solution in the short run – and a single solution in the long run. The two are, in fact, the same. In the short run, the only way to bring the private sector into a voluntary scheme is a debt swap, to be organised by the European financial stability facility. That is currently not possible because the EFSF is not allowed to purchase bonds in secondary markets. Germany, in particular would have to change its position on this issue. But the Germans are among those who are pushing the hardest for private-sector participation. I would not be surprised if they changed their mind again – as they have been doing time and again in the past 18 months.

    If the rules on the EFSF were relaxed, it could offer to buy up Greek debt at a discount, say 20 per cent, in exchange for its own AAA-rated bonds. The sellers would have to register a loss, but at least they end up with good securities. There would be no reason for the rating agencies to act.
  • Eile ütles Tim Geithner intervjuu käigus välja järgmised sõnad:

    "We don’t have the ability (because of the overhang in housing and the problems in the financial sector) to artificially engineer a stronger recovery."
  • Itaalia peab augustis ja septembris üle rullima ligi 70 miljardi euro eest võlga ja tervenisti 500 miljardi ulatuses perioodil kuni aastani 2013. Alloleval graafikul on välja toodud Itaalia kümne aastase võlakirja tulusus, mis on tegemas uusi tippe ning lähenemas tasemele, kus pikaajalist finantseerimist loetakse jätkusuutmatuks. Portugali 10a. võla intress oli mäletamist mööda kusagil 7,5% juures, kui ametlikult abi paluti aga veidi üle 5%, kui sel teemal spekuleerima hakati.
  • Viimase postituse valguses jälgitakse suure huviga Itaalia neljapäevast võlakirja oksjonit, kui müügiks lähevad 2016, 2017, 2023 ja 2026.a aegumisega võlakirjad. Homme üritatakse müüa 6,75 miljardi euro eest aastaseid võlakirju.
  • Kuigi Hiina keskpanga asejuht on kinnitamas Hiina toetust ja usku eurotsooni, on euro ise jätkamas langust, kaubeldes dollari vastu 1,25% madalamal ligi ühe kuu põhjas $1,4085 tasemel ja Šveitsi frangi vastu kõikide aegade põhjas 1,1792 tasemel.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SWC +1.1% (ticking higher; also raised FY11 production guidance).

    M&A news: ARJ +9.7% (Lonza to acquire ARJ for $47.20 per share), ENP +4.6% (Vanguard Natural Resources and Encore Energy Partners announce merger agreement).

    Other news: YRCW +26.1% (obtains commitments for $400 million asset-based loan facility), ESIC +5.9% (still checking), MITI +5% (Micromet has entered into a collaboration agreement with Amgen), RBCN +4.6% (will replace Esterline Technologies in the S&P MidCap 400), PSTI +4.2% (continued strength, still checking for specific catalyst), SIRI +2.7% (to join the NASDAQ-100 Index beginning July 15, 2011), SONO +1.6% (ticking higher, will replace Kendle International in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), ESL +1.3% (will replace Bucyrus International in the S&P MidCap 400 index), SQNM +1% (light volume; announces multi-year supply agreement with Illumina).

    Analyst comments: WFM +1.4% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), LRCX +1% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup).
  • Gapping down
    Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -8.1%, AIB -7.9%, BBVA -6%, BCS -5.2%, STD -5.1%, IRE -4.7%, DB -4.7%, RBS -3.9%, CS -3.1%, UBS -2.5%, HBC -1.7%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
    MT -3.2%, RIO -2.4%, VALE -1.9%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: ANW -7.1%, E -4.5%, TOT -3.9%, STO -3.4%, RDS.A -2.6%, BP -2.3%. A few telecom related names trading lower: TI -6.0%, PT -4.1%, TEF -2.7%

    Select European drug names under pressure: SNY -2.4%, AZN -1.2%, GSK -1.1%

    Other news: GPOR -5.1% (announces common stock offering of 3 mln shares), BUD -2.8% (still checking), SYT -2.2% (Syngenta mentioned cautiously in financial newspaper over the weekend), ARMH -1.4% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: PETS -4.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), AMD -3.2% (AMD downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities), HGG -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), BMR -2.4% (ticking lower, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), DEO -1.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Bernstein).
  • Off to a Weak Start
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/11/2011 8:24 AM EDT

    Who goeth a-borrowing
    Goeth a-sorrowing.

    -- Thomas Tusser

    Market players remained fairly upbeat on Friday when the very poor jobs report didn't hurt the market more than it did. We had extremely overbought technical conditions and unquestionably bad news, but we ended up with a close near the highs of the day and a loss of less than 1%.

    The market's quick move higher to that point likely led to the strong underlying support Friday. That very lopsided move created a big supply of underinvested bulls and badly out-of-position bears. Many were happy to do a little buying on Friday when we finally had the first real pullback in nine days. They were even ready to disregard the fact that we had some very bad fundamental news to contend with.

    Unfortunately for the bulls, not only did the market have some second thoughts about the poor jobs numbers over the weekend, but we now have worries that the European debt crisis is spreading to Italy. Until now the main focus had been Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, but the Milan Stock Exchange is down more than 4% in the past couple days as Italian debt comes under pressure.

    So the combination of more European sovereign debt issues, the poor jobs news and continued political posturing over the U.S. debt ceiling has us starting the week on a very sour note.

    Given how quickly and severely we had become overbought, it isn't all that surprising that we are seeing some spikes to the downside. The market would most likely be looking for some excuses to sell anyway, and it isn't having too much trouble finding some.

    Technically this action makes for very challenging trading. The recent rally was so fast and furious that it was extremely difficult to find entry points; now we are reversing back down very sharply, trapping plenty of newly minted bulls. Many market players were welcoming the unstoppable uptrend on Thursday, and now they suddenly have to question whether fundamental conditions can support this market.

    At this point the key for the market is to find some technical support and consolidate the big gains. Efforts to lock in recent gains will put some pressure on the market. On the other hand, plenty of players underperformed during the recent run, and they are anxious to put some money to work. They should supply some dip-buying support, as they did Friday.

    The other positive we have going is that earnings season starts this week, and that will put more of a focus on individual stocks and less on the macro matters that have been driving things lately. Companies have consistently come through with good numbers since the market low two years ago, and that's going to help establish some winners even in a tough economic environment.

    We are off to an ugly start this morning, but I suspect that dip-buyers will be lurking. Once we find some support, the buyers are likely to show some renewed interest very quickly.

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