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Börsipäev 13. juuli

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  • Moody’se hilisõhtune otsus alandada Iirimaa võlakirjade reitingut ühe pügala võrra Baa3 pealt Ba1 peale vedas USA turud kolmanda päeva järjest miinusesse. Eelnevalt oli mõningast optimismi jõudnud süstida FOMC eelmise kohtumise protokoll, mille kohaselt osad liikmed ei välistanud täiendavat majanduse stimuleerimist tulevikus, juhul kui SKT kasv jääb ebapiisavaks tööturu väljavaadete parandamisel. QE3 võimalus tõstis kulla hinna dollarites rekordi lähedale ning WTI sooritas samuti võimsa taastumise, tehes päeva põhjad 93,6 dollari juures ning käies hiljem 97,5 dollari juures. Hetkel kaupleb kulla unts 0,33% kõrgemal tasemel 1567,7 USD ja nafta liigub 97,4 dollari piirimail (0,0%).

    QE3 valguses jälgitakse täna hoolega Ben Bernanke poolaasta kõne Kongressi ees (kl 17.00), eriti kuna arvatakse, et Bernanke võis olla üks nendest FOMC liikmetest, kes eilse protokolli kohaselt ei välistanud majanduse täiendavat stimuleerimist. Euroopa sessiooni ajal avalikustatakse aga kell 11.30 mai ja juunikuu tööturustatistika ja kell 12.00 eurotsooni maikuu tööstustoodangu muutus.

    USA indeksite futuurid on varahommikul roninud kergesse plussi (+0,3%), Euroopa on aga avanemas üsna nulli lähedal.
  • Hiinas avaldati täna riigi teise kvartali SKT näit, mille kasv näitas mõningast aeglustumist võrreldes esimese kvartaliga, ent oodatud 9,3-9,4% juures kujunes 9,5%line tegelik kasv siiski veidi paremaks ning sellega leevendati hirmu, et keskpanga seni astutud sammud võivad majandust tugevalt jahutada. Ka muud makronäitajad osutusid oodatust paremaks. Juuni tööstustoodang kasvas 15,1%, lüües 13,7%-list ootust, jaemüük kasvas 17,7% ületades 17%-list prognoosi.

  • Bespoke on välja toonud tulemuste avaldamise intensiivsuse päevade järgi. Käesolev nädal jääb veel suhteliselt vaikseks, kui neljapäeval on enne turgu raporteerimas JPM ja pärast sulgumist Google ja reedel enne turu avanemist Citi aga järgmisest nädalast hakkab pihta juba tõsisem laviin.

  • Eile teatas Netflix (NFLX), et kliendid peavad nüüd maksma 60% rohkem, kui nad soovivad saada firmalt kahte teenust korraga: DVD-d ja seriaalide ning filmide vaatamine üle interneti. Nimelt teatas ettevõte, et mõlema teenuse kasutamisel peab klient nüüd maksma endise $ 9,99 asemel $ 15,98 kuus.
    Streetinsideri veebilehel on ära toodud ka NFLX-i klientide reaktsioon, mis on valdavas osas negatiivne ning paljud ähvardavad NFLX-i teenustest loobuda ning kolida firma konkurendi Coinstar (CSTR)-i juurde.
    NFLX-i aktsia reaktsioon uudisele oli eile posittivne ning aktsia sulgus $ 291,27 peal.
    Lisaks pettunud klientidele on skeptilisi märkusi kuulda ka turuosalistelt, kes usuvad, et hinnatõus pidurdab oluliselt firma uute kasutajate kasvu.
    Hetkel tegutseb NFLX USA-s ja Kanadas, kus firmal on kokku üle 23 miljonit kasutaja ja hiljuti teatas ettevõte laienemisest Ladina-Ameerikasse (43 uut riiki).
    Kõik, kes on üritanud NFLX-i aktsias lühikeseks minna, on siiani ilmselt saanud ka valusalt mööda näppe, mis muidugi ei takista uutel taas üritamast. Ise ei tahaks NFLX-i aktsias praegu sees olla ei pika ega lühikese posistiooniga, sest enne järgmise kvartali tulemusi pole selge, kuidas hinnatõus vastu võetakse ning märkimisväärne laienemine aasta lõpus võib kompenseerida võimaliku kasutajate vähenemise Põhja- Ameerika turul.
  • Eurotsooni maikuu tööstustoodang näitas oodatust pisut madalamat kasvu, kerkides mullusega võrreldes 4,8% asemel 4,0%. EUR/USD pole aga selle peale erilist nägu näitamas ning hoiab taset 1,4072 dollari juures (+0,72%)
  • Nelli, natuke NFLX-i loogikast selleni jõudmisel:

    Even if you assume that shipping is Netflix’s only cost related to DVD operations,
    the old pricing plans did not make financial sense. With the value of a monthly
    streaming subscription at $7.99 (a well supported price given that more than half
    of new subscribers in 2011 have been streaming only), then consumers were
    essentially paying $2.00 for the one DVD rental option ($9.99 total). Netflix
    roughly pays $0.80 to ship a single DVD, and the average customer on the one
    DVD plan had historically rented 3 DVD’s a month. This puts the average monthly
    shipping costs for the one DVD plan at $2.40, costing Netflix $0.40 a month per
    subscriber, clearly not a supportable long term business model.
  • Ymeramees, ma ei väidagi, et NFLX-l tegi antud otsuse ainult ahnuse tõttu ilma ühegi argumendita vaid klientidele ei pruugi hinnatõus väga meelt mööda olla. On üsna reaalne, et esimene negatiivne reaktsioon vaibub ja uus hind võetakse omaks, kuna odavamad konkurendid ei pruugi sama kvaliteediga teenust pakkuda.
  • Nummi on muidugi see, et NFLX hakkab järgmistest kvartalitulemustest alates vähem infot andma.. nii et pole võimalik kindlaks teha, kuidas see hinnatõus näiteks churn jms mõjutab.
  • Veel ühe lüütiku arvamus, mis reaktsioon olema saab: We expect those lower-priced hybrid subs who were turning around a high number of DVDs (very unprofitably) will churn off and those lower-priced
    hybrid subs that were not active to now go to streaming only, which has
    very high incremental margin given low variable costs.


    Laias plaanis võetakse see positiivselt vastu, loogiline samm, mis parandab marginaale. Ei imestaks, kui me räägime siin lähiajal NFLX-st kui $300 taala stockist. See annab Barronsi Savitzile jälle ühe võimaluse negatiivne lugu kirjutada :)
  • Paneme selle siia ka otsa, siis ei saa enam üldse aru, kas seda osta või müüa.
    Täna: JPMorgan Initiates NFLX with Overweight, price target: $340
  • Lisan siia NFLX-i "pullidest" screenshoti. Pildile ei mahu Citigroup, mis katab ettevõtet $300-lise sihiga.

  • Kuld on täna teinud dollarites uue ajaloolise tipu @ 1579,7 USD
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ADTN +10.3% (ticking higher).

    M&A news: TRH +10.2% (Validus announces superior proposal for combination with co for total consideration of $55.95 per share ), KCI +5.1% (to be acquired by Consortium Including Apax Partners, CPPIB and PSP Investments for $68.50 per share).

    Select financial related names showing strength: UBS +3%, ING +2.6%, CS +2.1%, BCS +1.9%, HBC +0.8%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MDW +4.6% (reports long gold intercepts at Spring Valley Project, Nevada; include metallic screen assays with gold intercepts of 166 meters of 1.48 grams per tonne gold), SVM +3.4%, BBL +2.3%, BHP +2%, RIO +1.6%, GOLD +1.6%, MT +1.3%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: E +2%, SDRL +1%, BP +0.8%, RDS.A +0.7%.

    A few solar names are seeing early strength: TSL +1.9%, LDK +1.7% (signed contracts to supply solar modules to two leading electric power companies in China), STP +1.4%.

    Other news: HRBN +9.2% (strength being attributed to proxy filings), CLNE +8.2% (strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade; also getting boost following positive mention on MadMoney), SUPG +6.4% (ticking higher, FDA accepts DACOGEN sNDA submission in acute myeloid leukemia), CDTI +4.2% (continued strength), CRZO +3.9%and WPRT +2.7% (getting boost following positive mention on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: ZAGG +7.1% (initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann), XCO +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), NFLX +1% (Netflix initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan), GOOG +0.8% (initiated with Overweight at JPMorgan), MAR +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), AAPL +0.7% (target raised to $450 from $435 at Citigroup), SLM +0.7% (initiated with an Edge Positive at Citadel).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ITG -9.1%, ERTS -3.6% (to acquire PopCap Games, will pay ~$650 mln in cash and $100 mln in shares of common stock), ASML -1.9%.

    Other news: TSPT -41.8% (expects Complete Response Letter on Intermezzo New Drug Application based on teleconference with FDA), CWH -4.4% (prices 10 mln shares of common stock at $24.00 per share), RNO -2.7% (announces public offering of 2.5 mln in common units), UDR -2.6% (announces a 15 mln share common stock offering), PDC -1.6% (announced a 6 mln share common stock offering pursuant to its effective shelf registration).

    Analyst comments: TV -2.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), CRS -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc).
  • Ymeramees, just hetk tagasi saigi juba rääkida NFLX-st kui 300 dollari aktsiast. Eelturul käis NFLX aktsia ära $ 300,50 peal, hetkel kaupleb $ 299 kandis, 2,7% plusspoolel.
  • Keep Plugging Away
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/13/2011 8:31 AM EDT

    Accept the challenges so that you may feel the exhilaration of victory.

    -- General George S. Patton

    If you have been struggling with this market lately, you aren't alone. We've had some particularly unusual action over the past couple weeks, and it has been very challenging to navigate.

    The big oversold bounce, in which we went straight up for eight days without any notable pause, was quite surprising -- especially since there wasn't any really positive fundamental development to explain it. The big move had everyone looking for a pullback prematurely, and then when we did finally pause, the mood shifted nearly 180 degrees and we went straight down. Suddenly all the recent positives had disappeared and we are mired in concerns about the European debt situation.

    After the very quick up and then down action, things went dead yesterday. We had a short-lived spike on mention of QE3 in the FOMC minutes and then closed weak. That left the market quite muddled and, of course, set us up for a gap-up open this morning to further frustrate market players who are trying to get a handle on this action.

    The good news is that regardless of how erratically the market has acted recently, we are given a fresh start every day. We always have the opportunity to reposition and develop the correct mindset for dealing with the market beast. Challenging action like we have had lately often is a prelude to the best opportunities.

    The key to market success is flexibility and willingness to change your mind as conditions evolve. As we've seen lately, the market has a way of punishing the overly dogmatic bulls and bears who become too comfortable when the market moves their way. The folks who think they are market geniuses one day are often the fools the next -- and that's the way it is always going to be. The most successful are those who are the most willing to adapt with each new development.

    After the big moves up and down recently, the market is well positioned to find some support and to turn back up. With Ben Bernanke speaking before Congress today and the first big earnings reports of the second quarter hitting tomorrow, the bulls are anticipating some positives. On the other hand, the European debt situation is not going to be solved quickly. It will continue to produce headlines that drive the action periodically, and that is going to make it difficult to be too comfortable with the long side. But the technical patterns are becoming more positive after the big move and then the shakeout.

    It has been a very challenging market lately, but we need to forget the past and focus on the future. If we maintain an open mind and continue to work hard looking for opportunities, we should be able to manage some success. Just don't drive yourself crazy trying to navigate the macroeconomic news and the headlines. They are jerking us around in random fashion, and there is just no way to trade them intelligently.

    We have a strong open on the way and then Ben Bernanke will be the focus. Obviously the market will be looking for any discussion about the chances of QE3. I expect to see Bernanke stick to his position that there isn't enough data to make any decisions about that right now, which may disappoint the market, but it all depends on how things are framed.

    Keep plugging along and don't let the craziness of the recent action wear you down mentally. The opportunities always arise if you just stay patient and keep working to find them.
  • FT Alphaville on ära toonud graafiku, kus on kajastatud Fedi protokollidest negatiivse varjundiga sõnade esinemissageduse. Nagu näha, siis viimases protokollis oli foon vägagi pessimistlik:

  • Bernanke tõdeb kõnes, et majandus võib vajada uut stimuleerimist ning turud on saanud taganttõuke
  • Bernanke juttu võib vaadata ja kuulata otseülekandes siit.
  • Tekst eriti targemaks ei tee. Paragrahv, mis pälvis tähelepanu on ilmselt see:

    "...the possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support. Even with the federal funds rate close to zero, we have a number of ways in which we could act to ease financial conditions further. One option would be to provide more explicit guidance about the period over which the federal funds rate and the balance sheet would remain at their current levels. Another approach would be to initiate more securities purchases or to increase the average maturity of our holdings. The Federal Reserve could also reduce the 25 basis point rate of interest it pays to banks on their reserves, thereby putting downward pressure on short-term rates more generally. Of course, our experience with these policies remains relatively limited, and employing them would entail potential risks and costs. However, prudent planning requires that we evaluate the efficacy of these and other potential alternatives for deploying additional stimulus if conditions warrant."
  • Briefing.com vahendusel:

    Fitch says Italy's ambitious fiscal consolidation effort underpins sovereign profile; Stable Outlook based on expectation it is likely to succeed in reducing the budget deficit as planned
  • Bernanke juttu kuulates meenub see videokokkuvõte Bernanke kriisieelsetest arvamustest ja nägemustest majanduse käekäigu kohta.
  • Doug Kassi kommentaar alanud rallile ja võimalikule QE3-le:

    i am back shorting the Spiders at 132.80 - if QE1 and 2 didnt work, why should QE3?
  • Dollar saab müüki: Šveitsi frangi vastu uus kõikide aegade põhi 0,8230 tasemel. NZD ja AUDi vastu kukkunud täna vastavalt 2,2% ja 1,6%. Euro vastu 1,33% miinuses.
  • In response to question about the potential for QE3, Fed Chairman Bernanke says if the recovery is faltering and inflation drops to where inflation issues are not relevant, then "we need to look at all the options"
  • Fitch lowers Greece long-term issuer default rating from B+ to CCC
  • $21 bln 10-yr Note Reopening Results: 2.918%; Bid/Cover 3.18x (Prior 2.23x, 12-auction avg 3.02x); Indirect Bidders 42.0% (Prior 50.6%, 12-auction avg 50.2%)
  • June Treasury Budget -$43.1 bln vs -$45.0 bln Briefing.com consensus; Prior -$68.4 bln
  • *(US) MOODYS PLACES US SOVEREIGN AAA RATING ON REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE; a short term default could lead to downgrade in Aa range
  • Futuurid päris ära kukkunud selle uudise peale!
    Nii vähe seda rohelust siis oligi.

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