Börsipäev 14. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Bernanke kommentaarid mõjusid eile USA aktsiaturgudele küll soodsalt, ent progressita kulgevad arutelud võlalimiidi tõstmise osas ning Moody’se otsus võtta Ühendriikide krediidireiting vaatluse alla, et seda limiidi mitte tõstmise korral madalamale langetada, mõjusid päeva teises pooles sentimendile negatiivselt ning on allapoole toonud ka Aasia turud.
Tänasest makrost võiks Euroopas välja tuua eurotsooni juunikuu lõpliku inflatsiooninäidu (kel 12.00). Lisaks jälgitakse kindlasti hoolega Itaalia võlakirjaoksjonit. USA poolel on aga fookuses iganädalane töötuabiraha taotluste näitaja ning juunikuu jaemüük (kell 15.30).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% miinuspoolel ning selle taustal on Euroopa avanemas üllatavalt negatiivselt (-1-1,6% madalamal). -
Reuters kirjutab, et Obama kohtumine vabariiklaste ja demokraatidega möödus eile eriti elektriliselt ning sellega astuti aruteludes pigem samm tagasi.
Obama abruptly ended a tense budget meeting with Republican leaders by walking out of the room, a Republican aide familiar with the talks said.
The aide said the session was the most tense of the week as House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, dismissed spending cuts offered by the White House as "gimmicks and accounting tricks." -
USA futuurid on vaikselt nulli tagasi roninud ning Euroopa omad samuti kergelt taastunud, indikeerides siiski avanemist -0,7-0,8% madalamal.
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Toon välja ühe huvitava graafiku, mis leidis meedias kajastust juba eile - USA 1-kuuse võlakirja yield oli eile negatiivne. Ehk teisisõnu investoritele on avanenud erakordne võimalus. Laena onu Sam'ile raha ning maksa selle eest ise veel peale (inflatsiooni arvestamata).
USA 1-kuuse võlakirja tulususe määr aasta algusest
USA 1-kuuse võlakirja viimase 2 päeva tulususe määr -
Jaapani jeen on viimastel päevadel suures osas tänu Euroopa võlakriisi sündmustele ja USA majandusnäitajate kehvenemisele uuesti tuge saanud ja kaupleb USD vastu nelja kuu tippude juures ehk tasemetel, kus kaubeldi märtsikuus pärast Jaapanit tabanud maavärinat, mis viis jeeni kõikide aegade tugevaima tasemeni.
Pärast seda tegid G7 riikide keskpangad ühisürituse, mille käigus müüdi orkesteeritult jeene, et vahetuskurssi langetada. Sellega seoses on ka sel nädalal tekkinud arutelud ja spekulatsioonid selle üle, kas Jaapani keskpank/valitsus otsustab uuesti valuutaturgudele sekkuda.
WSJs ilmus täna seda teemat kajastav artikkel:Japanese authorities remain reluctant to wade into the market when the causes of the yen's rise appear to lie largely offshore. But as the strong currency weighs on Japanese exporters and threatens to drag on the country's fragile economy, traders and officials agree that Japan can't stand on the sidelines for too long.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has made clear that he is no fan of intervention. In an interview on Monday, Mr. Noda said that "action should be limited to when there is excessive volatility or disorderly movements."
On Wednesday, Mr. Noda didn't call the yen's movement excessive or disorderly, but said it was "a little one-sided" and that he would "continue to watch the market carefully."
Chief government spokesman Yukio Edano issued his own warning to traders, saying that the government will "keep a close and strict watch" on the currency market.
The government and the Bank of Japan are already concerned about the economic impact of electricity shortages following the ongoing nuclear power crisis, and a stronger yen is the last thing they now want to see. Yen rises make Japanese exports less competitive in global markets, a troubling prospect for an economy counting heavily on exports to pull it out of the quake-induced downturn. -
Eurotsooni juunikuu baasinflatsioon 1,6% vs oodatud 1,5% (Y/Y). Nö tavaline inflatsiooninäit vastas ootustele 2,7% (Y/Y).
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Itaalia 5-aastaste võlakirjade tänasel oksjonil tõusis tulusus 4,93% peale, võrreldes kuu aega tagasi toimunud oksjoni 3,9%-ga.
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JPM teeb suurematest pankadest otsa lahti ning tulemused oodatust paremad. Aktsia on eelturul 1,8% plusspoolel kauplemas
JPMorgan Chase prelim $1.27 vs $1.20 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $27.41 bln vs $25.26 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Kuna ise jäin hätta siis vb leian siit vastuse. Niisiis tahaks leida andmeid, kus näitab riikide kulutusi intresside maksmisele SKP-st.
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Tänase börsipäeva alguses kirjutas Erko, et demokraatide ja vabariiklaste kohtumine lõppes Washingtonis ärevalt. Samuti on reitinguagentuurid (eelkõige Moody’s) väljendanud pahameelt seoses poliitikute suutmatusega tõsta võlalimiiti ning teavitanud ka võimalikust krediidireitingu langetamisest. Õnneks on senati vähemuse (st vabariiklased) liider Mitch McConnell demokraatide näole taas naeratust toomas – vabariiklasest poliitik on nõustumas võlalimiidi tõstmisega enne eelarvekärbete kinnitamist.
Kuigi vabariiklaste seas on võrdlemisi palju noori poliitikuid (kes ehk ei teadvusta olukorra tõsidust), siis võlalimiiti suure tõenäosusega kas nende nõusolekul või nõusolekuta tõstetakse. Usun, et oluliselt huvitavam aeg ootab meid veel ees – võlakoormus saab 2012. aasta presidendivalimistel vaieldamatult üheks suurimaks debati teemaks.
Isegi kui eelarvekärped järgmise poolt kuus jooksul kinnitatakse, siis praegune võlakoormuse kasv ei ole pikemas perspektiivis jätkusuutlik ning kärpeid tuleb teha ulatuslikult (mida ilmselt ka tehakse).
Allolevatel graafikutel on ära toodud GSRHGOVT ja GSRHGXHD indeksid vs S&P 500 indeks.
GSRHGOVT indeks koosneb erinevate sektorite ettevõtetest, mille tulud pärinevad vähemalt 20% ulatuses USA valitsuselt. Alates 2010. aasta algusest on indeks kasvanud 22.76% vs S&P 500 indeksi 16.30%
GSRHGXHD indeks on sarnane GSRHGOVT indeksiga, kuid indeksist on eemaldatud healthcare ja aerospace/defense sektorite ettevõtted. Möödunud aasta algusest saati on indeks tõusnud 19.97% vs S&P 500 indeks 16.30%.
Kärpeid ette prognoosides oleks aga huvitav jälgida ettevõtteid, mis teenivad suure osa tuludest tänu valitsusele. Goldman Sachs on koostanud alloleva tabeli, milles on näha ettevõtted, mis teenidavad 70% või rohkem oma tuludest tänu valitsuse "priiskamistele". -
Viimases postituses ütlesin, et vabariiklased on kaotanud reaalsustaju. Ehedalt kinnitab seda Sarah Palini (tulevane USA president?) sõnavõtt eilses teleprogrammis (wsj):
Ms. Palin said the U.S. cannot default on its debt and that the debt limit will eventually be raised, but she said the U.S. would have not have to default if Congress does not raise the country’s borrowing limit by Aug. 2, the date the Treasury has said the U.S. will no longer be able to pay its obligations with the current debt limit.
“I’m still not one to buy into this notion that we must incur more debt, [that] we must increase the debt ceiling by Aug. 2, otherwise there will be catastrophe,” she said. “You prioritize…you pay for the essentials first and then the nonessentials have to get cut.”
Wall Street Journal on teinud ülevaate sellest, mida Palin hindab nii-öelda mitteoluliseks. -
Sellest võlalimiidi probleemist saaks kerge vaevaga mööda minna. Fed võiks otse värskelt trükitud dolaritega riigi jooksvad kulutused kinni plekkida. Protsess oleks palju efektiivsem võrreldes praegusega kus kõigepealt valistsus emiteerib võlga ja Fed ostab ära.
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Hiljutine ravikindlustuse möll tuleb meelde. Võeti vastu, et varsti tühistada-kärpida. :)
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FEIM +16%, PVSW +8.3%, UFPI +3.7%, SVM +3.1%, YUM +2.5%, JPM +1.7%, RIO +0.7%.
M&A news: SUG +5.2% (Williams increases offer for SUG to $44/share), BRFS +0.8% (continued strength after Brasil Foods S.A. confirmed approval of merger with Sadia).
Select financial related names higher following JPM results: MS +1.9%, BAC +1.4%, GS +0.9%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: IAG +3.3%, HL +3%, SLV +2.6%, GOLD +2.3%, SLW +2.1%, GG +1.1%, AUY +0.8%, GLD +0.5%.
Other news: COP +6.5% (approved pursuing the separation of the co's Refining & Marketing and Exploration & Production businesses into two publicly traded corporations), ECA +4% (trading higher with COP), KEX +3.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TSYS +3% (receives $60.8 mln world-wide satellite systems order from U.S. Army), IMAX +1.3% (reports Harry Potter will open in a record 423 IMAX Theatres; also upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity).
Analyst comments: LUX +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), ENOC +1.5% (assumed with a Buy at Brean Murray; tgt $23), POT +1% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup). -
Initial Claims 405K vs 410K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 427K from 418K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.727 mln from 3.712 mln
June Retail Sales ex-auto 0.0% vs 0.0% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%
June Retail Sales m/m +0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus; May revised to -0.1% from -0.2%
June Core PPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
June PPI m/m -0.4% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OPTT -8.7% (ticking lower), FCS -2.2%, HIG -1.6%.
M&A news: WMB -1.0% (ticking lower; Williams increases offer for SUG to $44/share).
Other news: ASMI -3.7% (still checking), SAP -1.7% (following yesterday's reports that the co requested asks judge to overturn Oracle ruling), COF -0.7% (announces pricing of $2 bln common stock offering at $50.00), BBT -0.4% (filed for a mixed shelf offering for an indeterminate amount).
Analyst comments: RTI -3.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), CGV -3.2% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), WRE -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), DGX -1.6% (light volume, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), PLD -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), SWC -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan). -
Headlines Are Driving This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/14/2011 8:55 AM EDT
Excellence is in the details. Give attention to the details and excellence will come.
-- Perry Paxton
One of the great frustrations of the stock market is that astute stock-picking often just doesn't matter that much. You can pick some great stocks, but it there are major economic reports or important headline news, it won't make much of a difference in the near term.
It has been said that about 80% of stocks will trade in tandem with the overall market direction. Market players often act like a brainless herd, and you aren't going to do well if you try to fight them.
We are one of those times right now where the market action is being primarily driven by the news headlines. We are being pushed around primarily by the European sovereign debt issues and all the political wrangling over the debt ceiling. We also have had poor jobs news lately and continued concern over the economic recovery.
The big picture has been troubling, and that makes it much more difficult to make progress with good stock-picking. We have earnings season upon us now and that may help to shift some of the focus to the fortunes of individual names, but there is substantial risk of major news headlines that will send the great bulk of stocks moving together in one direction or the other.
I've always preferred to focus on individual stock-picking over trying to game the macro-economic news. I believe I have a better edge at finding good stocks that the market will eventually embrace than at trying to figure out what the impact of the Italian bond auction or the next PMI report might be.
The trick is to not allow your good stock-picking to be punished by a market that is reacting to news headlines. The only way to do that is to be disciplined with your trading and to use a shorter-term time frame. When you have some profits, you make sure you lock them in; if a trade starts to work against you, you cut it before it can do much harm.
The most important thing to keep in mind is that you will not be protected from the news headlines simply because you are holding good stocks. The market doesn't discriminate very well between the good and the bad, and even the best stocks will act poorly when the market is under pressure.
We have a good example right now of how macro events are pushing things around in almost random fashion. We traded very poorly yesterday after Ben Bernanke's appearance in Congress, and then futures were down sharply last night on news that the U.S. AAA bond rating is under review. This morning the mood is a little more upbeat, but there is an undercurrent of uncertainty that can whip this market around quite quickly
We have a slight positive reaction to economic data this morning, but after two weak closes in a row, it is going to be tough to trust early strength. Don't forget that Google reports tonight -- that should be a major driver. -
l6pp
Kuna ise jäin hätta siis vb leian siit vastuse. Niisiis tahaks leida andmeid, kus näitab riikide kulutusi intresside maksmisele SKP-st.
Pole päris see, aga siit peaks saama pildi, kus debt service kõige kulukam on: -
Mikk Taras
l6pp
Kuna ise jäin hätta siis vb leian siit vastuse. Niisiis tahaks leida andmeid, kus näitab riikide kulutusi intresside maksmisele SKP-st.
Pole päris see, aga siit peaks saama pildi, kus debt service kõige kulukam on:
Aitäh. Saan ka seda ära kasutada. -
Commentary from Fed Chairman testimony; says Treasury default would destroy trust, confidence of investors
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Täna on sattunud väikese müügisurve alla haruldaste muldmetallide tootja Molycorp (MCP) aktsia, kuna Hiina teatas, et tõstab haruldaste muldmetallide ekspordikvooti.
JPM, kes teada tuntud pull MCP suhtes asus kohe ka aktsiat kaitsma ning ütles, et muldmetallide hinnatõus jätkub ja kinnitas oma Osta soovitust.
MCP kaupleb hetkel 2,2% miinuspoolel ($ 53,10)
(CH) China Commerce Ministry: To set 2nd batch of rare-earth exports quotas for 2011 at 15.7K tons v 8K y/y
- Note: China produces 97% of the global supply of the minerals. -
Kuigi tulemuste osas on käesolev nädal veel üsna hõre, siis täna õhtul tasub kahtlemata silma peal hoida Google (GOOG)-l, sest just see firma teatab täna peale turu sulgumist oma majandustulemused. Teatavasti muutus Morgan Stanley (oli pikka aega ettevõtte suhtes väga positiivne) Google`i suhtes hiljuti negatiivseks, viidates mahukatele investeeringutele, mis ähvardavad firma marginaale kärpida.
Tundub, et ka turuosalised täna õhtul midagi head ei oota, sest hetkel kaupleb GOOG 1,5% miinuspooolel ($ 530,50) -
$13 bln 30-yr Bond Reopening Results: 4.198%; Bid/Cover 2.80x (Prior 2.63x, 12-auction avg 2.67x); Indirect Bidders 37.8% (Prior 38.4%, 12-auction avg 40.0%)
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MarketWatch veebilehel jagatakse nõuandeid, kuidas saada aru tehnoloogia sektori aktsiate tulemustest ja millele tähelepanu pöörata ettevõtte konverentskõnel. Näitena on välja toodud kümme firmat, mis lähiajal oma tulemustest teatama peaks ja need on: GOOG,IBM, AAPL, YHOO ja INTC,MSFT,AMD, NFLX, CSCO, HPQ.
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Netflix: DISH Network's (DISH) Blockbuster announces it is launching limited time, nationwide promotion for all Netflix customers who switch to Blockbuster Total Access
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MBIA Inc (MBI) surging on reports that BAC offering to settle lawsuit
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Google reports Q2 net rev of $6.92 bln vs. the $6.55 bln consensus; gross rev $9.03 bln vs. the $8.63 bln consensus
Google prelim $8.74 vs $7.83 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
GOOG kaupleb järelturul juba 8,5% plusspoolel, $ 584,00 kandis.
