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Börsipäev 22. juuli

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  • Turud on hingamas kergendatult pärast seda, kui Euroopa riigipead ja valitsusjuhid kinnitasid Kreeka uue abipaketi, mille suuruseks on 109 miljardit eurot. Sellega peaks riigi rahavajadus olema kaetud kuni 2014. aastani. EFSFi poolt väljastatud laenude intressimäär langetati aga 3,5% peale ning seda lisaks Kreekale ka Iirimaa ja Portugali puhul. Tulevikus väljastatavate laenude aegumisperiood pikendati aga praeguselt 7,5 aasta pealt minimaalselt 15 aastani. Erasektori panuseks on antud paketis 37 milljardit eurot, mille raames pakutakse järgmise kolme aasta jooksul aeguvate Kreeka valitsuse võlakirjade asemel neli erinevate kupongide ja tähtajaga võla ümbervahetamise paketti, sealhulgas on laual 20%-lise põhiosa discountiga variant, mis tõenäoliselt viib tehnilise maksejõuetuseni.

    Euroopa aktsiaturud on jätkamas rallit ning avanemas 0,5-0,6% kõrgemal võrreldes eilse sulgumisega, USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% plusspoolel. Makro poolelt jääb täna pilt üsna hõredaks, kui laual on vaid Saksamaa IFO indeksid kell 11.00 ja eurotsooni maikuu uute tööstustellimuste muutus. Majandustulemustega on enne USA turu avanemist tulemas täna Caterpillar, General Electric, Honeywell, Mcdonald’s ja Schlumberger.
  • Eurotsooni tööstustellimused kasvasid mais võrreldes aprilliga 3.6%, mis on viimase üheksa kuu suurim kasv. Aprilli 0.7%-line kasv korrigeeriti 0.1%-liseks languseks. Võrreldes eelneva aasta maikuuga tõusid töötstustellimused 15.5%, aprillis oli vastav näitaja 10.3%.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATHN +11.2%, CPHD +10.7%, SWKS +10.2%, AMD +8.8% (also upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity), ACTG +5.3%, GDI +4.3%, SNDK +3.1%, RMBS +3.1%, DMRC +2.8%, SLB +2.5%, NCR +2.1% (light volume), MCD +1.7%, VOD +1.5%, WDC +1.3%, GE +1.3%, CB +1.1% (light volume).

    Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +4.1%, ING +3.2%, BCS +2.6%, HBC +1.3%.

    Other news: GRO +11.1% (continued strength following yesterday's 30% jump), RYAAY +5.2% (Ryanair Hldgs seeing early strength; airline peer EasyJet soared higher following earnings/guidance), TTM +4.4% (confirmed assembly plant in South Africa), HEAT +4.2% (continued strength), TZOO +3.6% (rebounding following yesterday's premarket earnings release), FRO +3% and ALV +2.2% (still checking), FNFG +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CSTR -10%, HITT -9.6%, RT -9.2%, AVID -8.8% (ticking lower), EZPW -6.4%, BCR -6.1% (ticking following earnings; also hearing tier 1 firm downgrade), CYMI -5.8% (light volume), HLIT -5.6%, CAT -5.5%, FLIR -3.3%, PLCM -2.4%, SYT -2.4% (light volume), APKT -1.6%, RAI -1.3%, BJRI -1% (light volume), KSU -0.9%, MSFT -0.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), HON -0.7%.

    Select European drugs names seeing modest weakness: AZN -1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), NVS -0.7%, GSK -0.6%.

    A few CAT peers under pressure: JOYG -3.3%, DE -1.7%, CMI -1.5%, MTW -1.3%.

    Other news: SIFY -20.4% (continued weakness), INSP -2.2% (announced Eric Emans to be appointed interim Chief Financial Officer; effective mid-August).

    Analyst comments: DSX -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • PiperJaffray tõstab täna Crocs (CROX) hinnasihiti $ 28,00 pealt $ 36,00 peale ja kinnitab oma Osta soovitust.

    Company website checks indicate strong new style adoption in FQ2: We have monitored best selling products on Crocs.com and the mix of new styles has steadily increased over the last several months. Our analysis focused on the top 12 best selling styles for women's, men's, girl's and boy's and the cumulative share of new styles increased from 29% in March week 3 to 54% in June week 2. We view the rising rate as confirmation of the strong sell-throughs we have observed in our store checks. We conducted a similar analysis on Crocs' local country websites across Europe and these checks indicate new style adoption is also strong in this region. In Europe, an average of 42% of the best selling products were styles new for the spring/summer season. Importantly, Germany, the UK and France, which we estimate to be the company's three largest marketsin Europe, all had new style adoption rates above the European average of 42%.

    PipeJeffray analüütikud on otsustanud aktsia hinnasihti tõsta, kuna nende uuringute põhjal on CROX-i uued tooted klientide poolt väga hästi vastu võetud. Näiteks Saksamaa, UK ja Prantsusmaa, mis on firma kolm suurimat turgu Euroopas näitasid, et uute toodete osakaal on üle Euroopa keskmise (42%).

    Fall/winter product highlights an evolving assortment: Our review of the fall/winter 2011 product workbook indicates 57% of the styles are new for the season. New styles include a healthy mix of clogs, sneakers, slip-ons and boots. While boots remain a small portion of total sales, we noted a 55% y/y increase in boot styles which should help drive strong growth on top of last year's 100% growth. Another example of the evolving assortment are the new additions to the sneaker category. Last fall, the only adult sneaker was the Crocband Sneaker. The Hover, Devario and Bowen (all low tops) were introduced this spring and CROX is now leveraging the success of the Hover into the recently-released Hover Mid sneaker and kids' Hover Sneak Hi Top.

    Lisaks sellele on hea hoo sisse saanud ka sügis/talv jalanõud ning näiteks saapad, mis moodustavad kogumüügist ainult väikese, siis nüüd on saabaste valik kasvanud 55%, mis peaks toetama ka tänavu aasta tugevat kasvu, lisaks möödunud aasta 100%-le kasvule.

    Kuigi pole tegemist reitingumuutusega, siis silma jäi antud call seetõttu, et PiperJaffray, mis on aktsiat ka hästi katnud, andis hinnasihi, mis on endisest turu kõrgeimast 20% kõrgemal. Aktsia on alates aasta algusest teinud läbi võimsa 70%-lise tõusu, kuid graafikut vaadates tundub , et aktsial on vunki veel alles.

  • At the Mercy of News Flow
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/22/2011 8:50 AM EDT

    "Some debts are fun when you are acquiring them, but none are fun when you set about retiring them."
    --Ogden Nash

    When earnings season started a little over a week ago, market players were hopeful that some good reports would help to overcome the treacherous macro news. We were under pressure due to debt issues in both Europe and the U.S., and many wanted to see the market focus more on micro matters and good earnings reports rather than the latest headlines about the debt woes.

    So far, it hasn't worked that way. Although there have been a few strong reports from IBM (IBM) , Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) , earnings season has mostly been disappointing. The technology sector in particular has not done well and there have been few big surprises. Caterpillar (CAT) and Microsoft (MSFT) continue the trend this morning, with negative reactions to their reports.

    Fortunately, for the bulls, the macro headlines have suddenly turned positive and have caught many market players who were overly skeptical. The Greek situation was solved, again, for the tenth time, and there was a notable uptick in confidence over the ability to deal with the European sovereign debt issues.

    What has been particularly tricky is the battle over the U.S. debt ceiling. Talk of a possible deal brought a spike yesterday, but key Democrats indicated that there was little support for the deal without tax hikes. For some reason, the market remains optimistic that a deal is quite close.

    Many traders believe that a deal is inevitable and that we will see a "sell the news" reaction at some point. I'm not sure it will be that simple. The whole debt situation has a wide range of outcomes, and some will be considered better than others. No one seems to think we will suffer a debt default, but the range of outcomes is so broad that we should be very careful about anticipating how it plays out.

    With earnings not doing much to excite the market, we continue to be at the mercy of news flow, and that is going to make for tough trading. There is pressure on Italian banks, and we definitely are going to hear more about the debt ceiling. Chances that negotiations will break down are very high and could easily catch the market by surprise, especially on a summer Friday.

    The action has been choppy lately, and that has taken a toll on market players who have raised quite a bit of cash and are confused by the market action. It has not been easy to put money to work, and there is a distinct lack of aggressiveness among bulls.

    My plan is to stay reactive and not trust the action too much. I don't have much inventory, but I will continue to look for opportunities. I expect time frames to be short, and I'll be looking for some opportunities to short indices as well.
  • Briefing.com vahendusel:

    Representative Boehner speaks on debt negotiations; says with regard to yesterday, there was never an agreement, and not close to an agreement, so it's "going to be a hot weekend" in D.C.
  • Fed purchases $869 mln worth of 2021-2041 maturities through its Permanent Open Market Operations as delears looked to put back $5.97 bln worth
  • CROX-i kohta ei saa täna midagi halba öelda ning aktsia liikumine peale avanemist oli väga kena. Aktsia avanes $ 27,50 pealt ehk 2% kõrgemalt ning peale avanemist liikus kiirelt üle $ 28,00 taseme ja on nüüdseks sinna kanti ka kauplema jäänud. Hetkel kaupleb CROX $ 28,06 juures ehk 4,2% plusspoolel.

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