Börsipäev 4. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuigi Euroopa turud jäid eile veel ca 2%ga miinusesse, siis USA-s suutsid päeva jooksul pullid jõudu koguda ning lõpuks murti nädala pikkune langusseeria. Ka Hispaania ja Itaalia võlakirjade intressid andsid pisut järgi, kuid seda väga marginaalselt, püsides endiselt üle 6%. Hispaania kavatseb täna müüa 3,5 miljardi euro väärtuses 3 ja 4 aasta pikkuseid võlakirju, mille tulemused annavad märku investorite riskikartlikkusest ja valmisolekust Hispaaniale laenu anda.
Kriisi võimalik levimine eurotsooni kolmandaks ja neljandaks suurimate majandustega riikidesse saab ilmselt olema peamiseks teemaks ka EKP intressiotsuse järgsel pressikonverentsil (kell 15.30), eriti kuna intresside tõstmist ei oodata ning vähetõenäoliseks loetakse ka signaale, et tsüklit kavatsetakse lähiajal jätkata. Makrost võiks täna huvi pakkuda Saksamaa tehaste tellimuste juunikuu muutus (kell 13.00) ja USA poole pealt möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste number (kell 15.30).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% plusspoolel, Euroopa on avanemas aga 1% kõrgemal võrreldes eilse sulgumisega. -
Sarnaselt Šveitsi keskpangale on koduvaluutat täna ühepoolselt müümas käinud ka Jaapan, mis on toonud USD/JPY vahetuskursi 3% kõrgemale tasemele 79.3 jeeni. See on siiski jätkuvalt 4% tugevam vahetuskursist, millega Jaapani eksportijad on keskpanga eelmise kuu raporti kohaselt kasumite prognoosimisel keskmiselt arvestanud (82,59 jeeni)
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Deutsche on analüüsinud veidi viimase nädala langust aktsiaturgudel ning konkreetselt just DAXi puhul toob välja, et indeksi 8,4%-line alanemine on toonud konsensuse ootuse põhjal 12 kuu ettevaatava P/E taseme 9,1 peale. Ajalooliselt on tegemist äärmiselt madala valuatsiooniga ning viimati oli see number alla 9,5x 2008. aasta juulis. Viimase kaheksa aasta jooksul on 74% antud ajast DAX kaubelnud 10-13x vahemikus ja seetõttu ootab Deutsche järgnevatel kuudel PE näitaja taastumist. See võib aga toimuda mitmel viisi:
The Dax P/E could rise in two ways (or a combination of both): 1) Dax earnings remain stable over the coming months and then we would expect investors to buy into the low valued market. 2) Strong earnings downgrades over the next months for the Dax 12-month forward earnings could move up the Dax P/E. The Dax 2012E earnings (which will be the 12-month forward earnings in 4 months) stend currently at 769 index points, 20% above 2007 peak earnings. The market does not believe the 2012 estimates, but expects downgrades and 2011 (or 2010) Dax earnings to become peak earnings.
Kuna DAXi ettevõtted on tugevalt avatud globaalsetele riskidele ja võimalustele, siis kõige olulisem tegur kasumiootuste kärpimises oleks globaalne majanduse jahtumine. Mitmed suuremad riigid on raporteerinud viimasel ajal PMI näitajaid alla 50, kuid Deutsche arvates ei õigusta see veel argumenti, et kasumiootusi hakatakse tugevalt kärpima.
Dax earnings are currently relatively stable so far. In a worst-case scenario assuming Dax earnings for 2012 are to be cut by 20% to 615 and assuming a Dax P/E valuation of 10.6 would lead to a Dax level of 6500. Between 2002 and 2009 a Dax P/E multiple expansion/contraction has been a good precursor for earnings upgrades/downgrades (see chart below). However, since November 2009 the Dax P/E has shown a contraction trend without triggering subsequent downgrades. The huge gap is likely to close by a combination of a Dax recovery and moderate earnings downgrades. -
Hispaania müüs kokku võlakirjasid 3,31 miljardi euro väärtuses, mida oli maksimaalsest soovitud mahust 0,2 miljardi võrra vähem. 2014 yield oli 4,813% vs 4,29% juulis.
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Inglise keskpank jättis intressimäära (0,5%) ja valitsuse võlakirja ostuprogrammi mahu samale tasemele (200B naela)
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Saksamaa tehaste tellimused kasvasid juunis 1,8% võrreldes maikuuga, mil sama näitaja tõusis 1,5%. Sellega löödi küll 0,5%list langust oodanud analüütikute konsensust, ent Hispaanial ja Itaalial püsiva turu tähelepanu see ei kõigutanud.
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Euroopa keskpangalt samuti otsus jätta intressimäär 1,5% peale. Kell 15.30 algav pressikonverents peaks olema juba märksa põnevam sündmus.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: WWWW +32.8%, ASGN +14.9%, ANDE +10.4%, SWI +9.4%, ZIP +9.1%, SVNT +8.9%, FIRE +8.5% (also upgraded at UBS), MTZ +7.3%, (ticking higher), CVI +7.1%, NQ +6.1%, (thinly traded), GOLD +5.9%, SLI +5.4%, (thinly traded), SOLR +5.3%, TDC +5.3%, THOR +5.2%, KS +5% (ticking higher), TST +5.0% (thinly traded), ATVI +4.9%, UL +4.5%, KFT +3.5% (also announced the spin-off of their North American Grocery biz), DVA +3.3% (light volume, also upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), TSO +3%, HOTT +2% (ticking higher), SNTS +2% (ticking higher), ANF +1.5%, LTD +1.4%, TGT +0.5%.
M&A news: HIT +2% (Hitachi and Mitsubishi considering combination of select operations but have not reached accord).
Analyst comments: TIF +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), EMC +0.6% (upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart). -
Initial Claims 400K vs 405K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 401K from 398K
Continuing Claims rises to 3.73 mln from 3.72 mln -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: DNDN -63.9%, (also provided Provenge details, was downgraded by multiple analysts and upgraded at Credit Suisse), PMI -34.1%, ENTR -25.1%, CADX -14.8%, (also downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Duncan-Williams), SCOR -14.6%, ZUMZ -13.3%, VE -12.2%, WLT -11.3%, (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Keybanc and downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray), TS -10.9%, ARO -10.1%, RIG -9.3%, CECO -9%, LOCM -8.7%, NTSP -8.7% (light volume), SPPI -6.9%, ANR -6.2%, LEAP -5.9%, ONNN -5.5%, KSS -4.7%, MELI -4.4%, LPSN -4.3%, TSLA -3.5%, CBOU -3.1%, CLWR -2%, ATML -1.9%, MDR -1.9%, NVO -1.3%.
Many financial related names under pressure: LYG -10.4%, BCS -8.2%, UBS -5.5%, DB -4.3%, CS -4.3%, AEG -4%, HBC -3.2%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -7.7%, RIO -6.9%, BBL -5.8%, BHP -4.6%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -6%, STO -4.4%, RDS.A -3.8%, TOT -3.5%, E -3.1%, BP -3%.
Other news: CGV -10.5% (continued weakness), FRO +-9.6% (still checking). -
Going to Be a Bumpy Ride
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/4/2011 8:52 AM EDT
Fear makes the wolf bigger than he is. -- German Proverb
After eight straight days of selling we finally managed an oversold bounce on Wednesday. It looked like we might even see some follow through as futures were up nearly one percent last night, but we are being hit hard again this morning as fears and worries over the European sovereign debt issue accelerate.
What makes the European situation so difficult is that there are a variety of problems in many different places and very little clarity. It isn't just one isolated issue that can be easily identified and discounted by the market but many interconnected problems, which most people don't even understand.
This morning we have a big jump in yield on Spanish debt, concerns that Italy won't make the changes needed to avoid going the way of Greece and general concerns about the slowing economy There is vicious circle of negatives feeding on each other and it sapping the little market optimism that exists. If we had more positive feelings about the economy in the US we probably could ignore it better, but the pessimism in the US is building as we have a steady diet of poor economic reports.
We were due for some sort of relief bounce, but the weakness and the short duration of the counter-trend move is going to bolster fear and negative. You could sense a collective sigh of relief yesterday when we finally managed to close in the green and at the highs. Even though it wasn't much of a gain the feeling was that maybe we could stabilize now and begin to build.
I'd really like to offer some very clever way of dealing with this sort of market but there isn't much you can do but stay out of the way until the buyers show up and we have better price action. Some folks like to average into the weakness in anticipation of an eventual reversal but it is so difficult to time market turns that I prefer to simply wait and buy only when there is better action.
I've found that you can do just as well, if not better, by being slow to embrace the market when things improve. Most market players err on the side of being too early. Wall Street just can't stand the idea of not being heavily long at the exact moment the market hits a bottom. Theoretically it sounds great but as a practical matter it is nearly impossible to do.
What always happens on the first day of a bounce after an extended downtend is that there is great celebration by the bulls, who have been anticipating a reversal. Most of them are still buried in losses, which may be slightly less now, but they act as if they are minting money. This causes all the folks holding high levels of cash to feel like they are being left behind even though they are still far ahead of the game since they avoided losses caused by constantly buying in anticipation of a turn.
The important lesson is that you don't have to be early to the party in order to make money when the market eventually turns. In fact, you reduce your risk of being caught on a morning like this when the minor bounce fizzles out so quickly.
The intensity of the selling this morning after the intraday reversal Wednesday is a bit frightening and it is going to cause a little panic unless we see some positive news headlines soon. Don't forget we have the big jobs report tomorrow and there is likely to be a great amount of worry about what those numbers may show.
Strap on your trading helmet and tighten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy ride. -
Trichet kiitis praegu Eestit. Rõhutas seda, et valitsused peavad kindlasti kindla käega edasi minema ja oleme sündmustest ees mitte reageerima tagantjärgi. Mainis, et on riike mis suudavad kärpida ja mille eelarvepoliitika on korras ja kus ei ole liialdusi ja see on eeskujuks teistele. Täpse tsitaadi saab hiljem protokollist, aga see oli põhipoint. Eestit ta küll otseselt ei maininud kuid on obvious, et ta mõtles Eestit.
LIVE: Webcast of the press conference 4 August 2011 -
Euroopa turud lõpetasid korralikus miinuses: FTSE -3,43%, CAC40 -3,9%, DAX -3,4%, Euro Stoxx 50 -3,28%.
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USA 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus on teinud täna kõikide aegade põhja 0,2803% tasemel.
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Väga väga punane päev - S&P500 ja Nasdaq on enne sulgemist juba peaaegu -5%. Bespoke võrdleb viimaste nädalate langust eelmise suvega, kui QE2 turud taas tõusma pani (kuna QE2 mõju reaalmajandusele on kõik näinud, saab näha, mil moel turud QE3'le reageerivad, kui see peaks tulema):
The S&P 500 is now down 10% from its closing high reached on April 29th, putting it in so-called "correction" territory. Last year we had a similar correction that started at just about the same time and was caused by pretty much the same thing. With a decline of 18.95% from peak to trough, last year's correction actually got much worse than where the current correction stands. While the correction low came in early July last year, the problems continued basically through the end of August until Bernanke's now famous/infamous Jackson Hole speech in which he announced QE2. Will we need a similar announcement this year to put a stop to the bleeding ? (link) -
Valus!! Hea(halb), et päev läbi sai ja langus 5% ei tulnud.
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Lõpuks tuli COMP 5% ikka ära :)
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Elik Näsdäg siis
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SP 1200. Nice
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Et siis homme OMXT alla 600
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Mingi Bloombergi intervjuu vend soovitas just Fordi osta. Väitis ,et müük kasvab 20%. Hetkel on vist ikkagi targem müüa, kuna langustrend oli ka eile olemas.
Üldiselt tundub,et peataolek on igal turul täna olemas.Eriti nagu keegi juhtoina rolli ei taha võtta ja öelda mida selline võlakriis üldisemalt kaasa toob. -
Kes täna ei müünud, neilt võetakse homme aktsiad tasuta käest ära. Ah jaa, ülehomme on maailmalõpp. Kui kellaaja teada saan, siis jagan.
