Börsipäev 12. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Makronäitajad ning turgudel liikuv info on genereerimas jätkuvalt kõrget volatiilsus. S&P 500 lõpetas eile 4,6% plussis, jätkates sellega seeriat, kus indeks on viimase kuue sessiooni jooksul kas tõusnud või langenud vähemalt 4,4% viiel korral, võttes paljudelt ära igasuguse investeerimise isu:
WSJ: "Institutional clients are shell-shocked. I've spoken to some guys who say they don't want to play this game anymore," said Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at investment bank Dahlman Rose & Co. "This is nuts."
Kuigi USA töötuabiraha taotluste number oli eile oodatust parem ning jõudmas tagasi esimese kvartali põhjade juurde, siis vähem julgustavam oli juunis teist järjestikust kuud vähenenud Ühendriikide eksport, mis Deutsche analüütikute arvates võib tuua hiljuti avaldatud teise kvartali üsna kesise 1,3%-lise kasvunumbri järgmise revideerimisega 0,5% peale. Austraalias aga tõusis töötusemäär juulis 5,1% peale 4,9% pealt juunis, mis on analüüsimajasid toonud arvamusele, et keskpank võib tänavu intressimäärasid rohkem kui ühe korra langetada.
Mõni hetk tagasi avaldatud Prantsuse Q2 SKT püsis muutumatuna võrreldes esimese kvartaliga, samal ajal aga ootas Reutersi konsensus 0,3%list kasvu (aasta baasil oli kasv 1,6% vs oodatud 2,0%). Lisades nõrga makro kõrvale veel uudised, et finantssektor on üha tõsisemalt jälgimas vastaspoole riske ning vähendamas omavahelist krediidi liikumist, siis turgude kõrge volatiilsus ei ole tõenäoliselt niipea kuhugi kadumas.
Tänase makro puhul püsib tähelepanu Ühendriikidel, kui kell 15.30 tuleb avaldamisele juulikuu jaemüügi statistika ning kell Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi augustikuu indeks. Nõrgeneva makro valguses jälgitakse edaspidi hoolsamalt ka ettevõtete varude muutust (kell 17.00).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,9% punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas 0,3-0,5% kõrgemal. -
Eile hilisõhtul otsustati kehtestada Pransusmaal, Itaalias, Hispaanias ja Belgias teatud finantssektori aktsiate lühikeseks müügi keeld, mis peaks aitama vähendada kuulujuttude tekitatud volatiilsust, kuid nagu varasemad stabiliseerimiskatsed on näidanud, siis püsivate fundamentaalsete probleemide juures ja uudiste halvenedes on need osutunud suhteliselt kasutuks.
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Harilikult mingi asja keelamine tekitabki vastupidise efekti. Loodame, et nüüd nii ei lähe. Mul hakkab odavalt ostmise raha otsa saama.
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Eurotsooni juunikuu tööstustoodang kasvas aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 2,9%, samas kui konsensus ootas 4,2%list tõusu (maikuu näit revideeriti 4,0% pealt 4,4% peale). Lisaks on avaldatud Kreeka teise kvartali SKT muutus, näidates aastataguse perioodiga langust -6,9% - rohkem kui oodati, kuid turg sellele tähelepanu ei omista.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NVDA +11.9%, RRGB +10.1%, MCP +7.3%, JCP +6% (ticking higher), JWN +4.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Stifel), MBND +2.2% (also announced plans to accelerate initial portion of WPCS Acquisition), ADK +2.1% (ticking higher).
Select financial related names showing strength: AIB +5.7%, BCS +2.6%, ING +2.1%, CS +1.7%, UBS +1.5%.
A few MCP rare earth related peers trading higher: AVL +8%, REE +5.8%.
Other news: MDS +33.6% (announces decision to review strategic alternatives), MNKD +21.1% (announced that it has confirmed with the U.S. FDA the design of two clinical studies that evaluate the efficacy and safety of AFREZZA, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities), SODA +5.4% (modestly rebounding), LOGI +5.2% (still checking), SNY +2.3% (and EOG +1.5% (Cramer made positive comments on MadMoney), T +1.4% (Hearing the co is considering selling assets and hired financial advisor).
Analyst comments: BUD +4.5% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), FFIV +3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), E +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Collins Stewart), AGNC +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), WY +1.3% (upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts), PII +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BYI -20.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), AMCF -17.7% (thinly traded), FRF -17.4% (thinly traded), CDTI -16.2%, QPSA -15.5%, TFCO -14.5% (thinly traded), MOBI -10.4% (light volume), DV -8.8%, RENN -7.5%, ELX -6.9%, DDS -5.4% (ticking lower), TGB -3.1% (light volume).
Select gold related names trading lower: GFI -4.0%, AU -3.9%, HMY -2.5%, AUY -1.6%.
Other news: PAA -3.5% (announced commencement of 7.5 mln common unit secondary public offering owned by Vulcan Energy Corporation), TTM -2.3% (still checking).
Analyst comments: HST -2.7% and GET -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), LYB -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman), BP -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), HOT -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ADBE -1% (downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), EMN -0.6% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman). -
Juuli jaemüük oli ilma autodeta märksa parem võrreldes ootustega ning lisaks revideeriti varasemat näitu üles. USA furuurid hetkel 0,6% plussis.
July Retail Sales ex-auto +0.5% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.2% from 0.0%
July Retail Sales +0.5% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus -
Evolve or Perish
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/12/2011 8:59 AM EDT
"The short-sale ban really smacks of desperation. That's their plan for solving the euro debt crisis? I mean, this isn't going to buy them much time."
--Kenneth S. Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University
For the first time since the 1987 crash, the market has swung more than 4% on four successive days. You have to go back to the 1930s for another bout of such volatility. This sort of action has only occurred a handful of times in history, so I don't need to belabor the point that we are dealing with truly unusual market conditions, which means we had better adapt if we want to survive and prosper.
The big jump Thursday is being helped this morning by a short-selling ban in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium. The obvious goal here is to try to stabilize markets and restore confidence while the European Central Bank deals with the euro-debt crisis. It may sound good in theory, but you have to wonder how effective that course of action will be.
In 2008, the U.S. imposed a similar ban on short selling. The announcement had a positive effect initially, but once it went into effect, the financial sector continued to trend down. The use of options and exchange-traded funds undermined the effectiveness of the action and, historically, short-selling bans have not worked well.
In 2008, a SentimenTrader.com study of short-selling bans found that after initial positive reaction to governmental intervention, the issues that prompted the action didn't go away and eventually weighed on the market again. Market players are a creative group, and they always find ways to put on the trades they desire. The politicians might slow them down a little, but seldom stop them.
I'll let others debate the wisdom of these policies but for trading purposes, all we really need to know is that short-selling bans usually have a short-term positive impact before the inciting conditions assert themselves again. Market players are not stupid, and they will be very quick to fade strength caused by this action, so we need to be very careful about trusting the upside created by this news.
Developing a strategy for dealing with this market is extremely difficult. Stocks are highly correlated, so there isn't much benefit to individual stock picking. As I mentioned yesterday, I've nibbled at a few stocks with strong fundamentals. While that may provide some support, I don't expect that to be enough to avoid pullbacks should the market continue to struggle.
Eventually, macro concerns will ease and we'll return to a market where stock picking matters. But today is not likely to be that day. We need to stay ready and make sure we have identified the stocks we will favor when the market returns to normal action. It is important to stay vigilant. And there is great potential for intraday trading with moves of this magnitude. Using your favorite long-term stocks as trading vehicles is a particularly good strategy as they will hopefully have some natural underlying support.
If you want to participate in this market, you have to focus on trading market direction rather than stock picking. If the recent pattern of action holds, this slightly positive open is a good time to put on some shorts. What has been happening lately is that as soon as some intraday direction is established, it is accentuated as computerized and high-frequency trading kick in and short-term momentum traders go along for the ride.
We'll see if any pockets of momentum develop that allow individual stock picking, but I'm not optimistic. Stay focused on the big picture and manage individual trades tightly. The easiest thing to do is let gains slip away when the market reverses sharply.
I'm inclined to look for some index shorts as market players debate the effectiveness of short-selling bans. The evidence is clear that they do not work well and that will eventually result in renewed market pressure. -
August Michigan Sentiment- prelim 54.9 vs 62.5 Briefing.com consensus; July 63.7
August Michigan Sentiment of 54.9 is reported to be the lowest since 1980
June Business Inventories +0.3% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus -
Oodatust parem USA jaemüük ning varasema statistika ülespoole korrigeerimine on Morgan Stanley hinnangul viitamas hetkel kolmanda kvartali varasemalt prognoositud 2,0%lise tarbijakulutuste kasvu asemel 2,3%list kasvu ning hetkel tunneb analüüsimaja end Q3 3,0%-lise SKT ootuse juures kindlalt.
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Kuigi USA turg on täna peale pettumust valmistanud augustikuu tarbijasentimenti kenasti rohelisel territooriumil kauplemas, siis sellegipoolest kuuleb siit-sealt spekulatsioone uue majanduslanguse teemal. Deutsche Banki analüütikud on Business Insideri vahendusel toonud välja viis lihtsat majandusnäitajat, millede jälgimine annab aimu sellest, kuhu majandus teel on.
Analüütikud soovitavad silma peal hoida töötute arvul, tarbijasentimentil, tarbijate kulutustel, inflastioonil ja Fedi sõnavõttudel. Analüütikute kommentaare koos graafikutega saab näha siin.
