Börsipäev 22. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Olgugi, et reedel olulisi uudiseid polnud, siis leviv hirm Euroopa ja USA uue majanduslanguse pärast viis Stoxx 600 indeksi -1,7% madalamale (nädalaga -6% ning ühtlasi saavutati reedel uus selle aasta põhi) ja S&P 500 indeksi -1,5% punasesse (siiski 4% kõrgemal 8. augusti põhjast). Aasia näitas täna avanemisel rohelist, kuid nüüdseks on valdav osa indeksitest tõusu ära andnud. Kuld seevastu on teinud taas uue tipu 1884 dollari peal.
Selle nädala oodatuimaks sündmuseks on Jackson Hole’i majanduskonverents, kus reedel on USA väljavaadetest rääkimas Ben Bernanke. Palju on tõmmatud paralleele eelmise aastaga, mil Bernanke avalikustas QE2 ning paljude arvates võime sama kuulda ka tänavu. Kuid hetkel näib konsensus siiski uskuvat, et ehkki USA keskpanga juht võib stimuleerimisvõimalustest rääkida, siis hetkel neid rakendama ei hakata.
Kuigi täna olulist makrot oodata ei ole, siis nädal toob hulgaliselt infot, mis võib sentimenti kallutama hakata. Teisipäeval avalikustatakse Hiina augusti PMI ja kolmapäeval eurotsooni oma. Lisaks saame homme, ülehomme teada Saksamaa finantsanalüütikute, tarbijate ja ettevõtete sentimendiindeksid. USA poole pealt on üsna olulised kolmapäevane kestvuskaupade tellimused, neljapäevane töötuabiraha taotluste number ja reedene teise kvartali SKT revideeritud näit.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% punases, Euroopa on avanemas -1,1 madalamal. -
FT kirjutab, et Kreeka neli suuremat panka on pidanud ühendama jõu ning päästma 50 miljoni euroga ühe väiksema laenuandja. Kuigi tegu on suhteliselt väikse summaga, siis teatud likviidsusriske peegeldab see terves Kreeka finantssektoris. Link
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Davenport&Company tõstab täna Alcoa (AA) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 18 hinnasihiga.
Upgrading to Buy. We are upgrading AA to Buy (from Neutral). We had been Neutral since last November solely on our view that aluminum prices would move sideways and so too would AA. Aluminum prices have certainly had their ups and downs. The recent pullback to $2,310/mt ($1.05/lb) puts the price enough below our ’12 forecast of $2,575/mt ($1.17/lb) that we now see more upside than downside for aluminum prices (even with all the negative sentiment in the financial markets). A turnaround in aluminum prices would serve as a tailwind for AA, given the company’s EPS sensitivity is 3-4¢/share for a 1¢/lb. change in aluminum prices.
Daveport on olnud AA suhtes äraootavalseisukoha alates möödunud novembrist ja kui alumiiniumihinnad on olnud üsna volatiivsed, siis hiljutine hinnalangus on loonud analüütikute sõnul olukorra, kus allapoole kukkumine limiteeritud isegi siis, kui arvestata üleüldist negatiivset sentimenti finantsturgudel.
Alcoa—More Than Just Aluminum Prices. Aside from the obvious benefit to the Primary Metals segment from an expected rebound in aluminum prices, Alcoa’s other three segments have been improving and changing for the better. We think the upside from its other segments is under-appreciated by investors.
The downstream segments, Flat Rolled Products and Engineering Products & Solutions, have reached record margins in ’11. The improvement is due to many reasons: strong growth in the aerospace market, a long-awaited turnaround of the company’s Russian mills acquired in ’04, divesting underperforming assets such as soft-alloy extrusions, not renewing in early ’10 a money-losing (in our view) can sheet contract with a major customer, ongoing cost cutting, and a cyclical improvement in the economy.
Lisaks sellele ei seisne AA äri ainult alumiiniumis ja teised segmendid nagu lehtvaltstooted ja inseneriteave ja teenused, mis on viimasel ajal näidanud rekordmarginaale ning analüütikute arvates on see osa ärist investorite poolt alahinnatud.
For Alcoa’s other upstream business, Alumina, the changes are as much structural as they are cyclical, which we think should lead to significantly better profitability through 2015. Beginning in ’11, Alcoa changed the way it prices its alumina. No longer did it price alumina as a percent of aluminum, as the industry had done for decades. Rather, it began pricing alumina on its own merits—delinking it from aluminum—and instead pricing based on the spot market. It will take five years for Alcoa to re-price its entire alumina portfolio under the new pricing system because of multi-year contracts. Alcoa stated that 20% of its portfolio in ’11 is now priced on the spot market. We assume that another 20% rolls off each year through ’15. We estimate Alcoa should get $25/mt more for its alumina longer term by changing the price structure, which increases EPS by $0.16/sh in ’15.[/i]
Lisaks on AA võtnud kasutusele uue süsteemi, kuidas hinnata alimiiniumoksiidi ja analüütikute arvates peaks see aja jooksul viima ka suurema kasumlikkuseni. Firma ei hinnasta alumiiniumoksiidi enam protsendina alumiiniumist nagu seda on sektoris tehtud juba aastakümneid, vaid võtab aluseks hetketuru hinnad. Ümberhinnastamine võtab küll viis aastat aega (pikaajaliste lepingute tõttu), aga kokkuvõtteks peaks see EPS-i tõstma $ 0,16 võrra 2015. aastaks.
Nii nagu kogu toorainete sektor on ka AA aktsia saanud viimasel ajal müüki näha. Davenport pole väga suure mõjujõuga analüüsimaja ja nende upgrade on täna sisuliselt turu-call ehk teisisõnu peaks Davenporti positiivne reitingumuutus andma turuosalistele põhjuse osta kuna eelturg viitab, et täna võib vahelduseks tõusupäeva oodata. Aga kuna antud call on turu armul, siis aktsia võib ka kohe suuna muuta, kui turg peaks siiski plussi käest ära andma. Olgu lisaks veel öeldud, et AA väga maruline liikuja ei ole.
Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $ 11,63 kandis, 3,7% plusspoolel. -
Gapping up
With futures +1.5% this morning, many stocks are gapping up; we have highlighted the following:
M&A news: NDN +8.5% (strength attributed to NY Post report suggesting Apollo is preparing a bid for co); CLWR +7.6% (continued strength from Friday's 30% gain on M&A speculation)
Select financial related names showing strength: HBC +1.8%, BAC +1.7%.
Select metals/mining/material stocks trading higher with continued strength in the underlying commodities:: HMY +4.7%, BHP +2.2%, RIO +1.8%, EGO +0.8%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength (WTI Crude is +1.7% and Brent Crude is -1.4%): RDS.A +4.4%, HAL +3.6%, BP +3%, XOM +1.3% .
Other news: GTSI +15.3% (sells ownership interest in Eyak Technology for $20 mln), NDN +8.5% (strength attributed to NY Post report suggesting Apollo is preparing a bid for co), PEIX +7.3% (CEO & CFO disclose purchase of 40K shares at 0.35-0.37, worth ~$15K), SGEN +6.4% (continued strength following Friday's approval Adcetris approved ahead of 8/30 PDUFA), CEL +4.2% ( debenture offering in Israel), UN +2.7% (strength in European Mkts), CSCO +1.7% (acquire AXIOSS Software Assets), .
Analyst comments: YGE +8.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray, from Neutral from Underweight at HSBC), AA +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Davenport), HPQ +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga), UA +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Capstone), SLM +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse) -
Gapping Down
With futures trading up 1.7%, there are few stocks gapping down today
Other news: PMI -19.5% (issuance of supervisory order by the Arizona Department of Insurance ), RBS -2.5% (still checking), UEC -1.6% (files $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering, light vol).
Analyst comments: YCZ -4.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC). -
Three Things to Know About Bear Markets
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Aug 22, 2011 | 8:43 AM EDT
You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.
-- Peter Lynch
The market is set to open strongly this morning, but after the weak action over the last few weeks we are hovering close to bear-market territory. A bear market is generally defined as a downturn of 20% or more in multiple market indices. Presently the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are about 18% off their highs so it won't take much more to push us into the technical definition of a bear market.
While it certainly is possible that the market will find some support here and turn back up, we need to be mentally prepared to deal with a bear market should we not see the quick recovery that so many are hoping for. While we might want to be optimistic that the worst is over, we also need to be practical and be prepared in case it isn't.
There are three things about bear markets that we should keep in mind:
1. Bear markets are not just the inverse of bull markets. Stocks go down differently than they go up.
Even if you are adept at shorting, one of the most challenging aspects of a bear market is that you can't just do the opposite of what you do in bull markets. Stocks don't go down in a bear market in the same manner that they go up in a bull market. Typically there is a higher level of volatility in downtrends, with sharper downside moves and bigger and faster bounces.
In a bull market you can usually be patient with positions and give them some time to work. In bear markets, your holding periods generally need to be shorter and your profit-taking more aggressive. The gains can occur much faster on shorts, but they can slip way extremely fast. The open this morning after the action last week is a good example of standard bear-market action.
Effective shorting generally requires a more anticipatory approach than good long trading. Chasing strong momentum tends to work better with longs, as the moves are usually more sustained and drawn out. With shorts the gains tend to come much quickly and don't last as long. If you aren't already in a short position, it is much more difficult to find entry points.
2. The sharpest rallies occur in bear markets.
If you look back at the history of the market, almost all of the biggest one-day moves have occurred during bear markets. The reason for that is because people simply aren't ready for them. The bulls are underinvested, the bears have profits to protect, and they suddenly rush back into the market thinking that maybe the bottom is finally in.
One of the things you often hear from traditional Wall Street is that if you miss out on the 10 biggest days in the market, you will underperform. What they never seem to mention is how these days tend to occur in bear markets and how you would have fared if you missed the 10 worst days and didn't hold when the market started to downtrend.
From a trading standpoint, these very vicious rallies can provide some great opportunities, but the key is to stay short term and to not be sucked into the inevitable proclamations that the worst is over. Folks understandably become hopeful very quickly when we have a big bounce, but the failure of those bounces is what produces the real pain of a bear market. Play the bounces if you are so inclined, but don't be too quick to trust them.
3. Bear markets are more likely to end with a whimper rather than a bang.
A third thing to keep in mind about bear markets is that the bottom is usually only obvious in retrospect. Many market players look for huge panic and selling capitulation to signal a bottom. This has occurred at times like during the 1987 when we had the one-day crash and the huge bounce the next day, but typically the lows occur without much fanfare.
In March 2009 we had dripped lower for several weeks after a month of waterfall declines and finally found a bottom on an unremarkable day. The bottom in 2003 was similar. We drifted down on lower volume and finally reversed up and volume surged. There was no panic or final washout.
I've often written that bad markets tend to wear you out rather than scare you out. What makes bear markets so dispiriting is when it feels like we'll never go up again. It is important to keep in mind the goal of the market beast is to always make us uncomfortable as possible. It wants us to give up out of disgust and despair. If you know that, it can easier to deal with.
Rather than fight the fact that we are in a bear market, embrace it -- you will deal with it much more effectively. Bear markets are never easy but they are inevitable, and if we can keep the damage limited we will profit greatly when times improve.
We have a decent bounce brewing this morning, but you sure can't be too trusting of an open like this on Monday morning. There are lots of "stuck holders" out there and they will be happy to sell. Gold at the highest price since 1898 is not a cause for great optimism. -
Travelzoo authorized the repurchase of up to 500,000 of its outstanding common shares
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The Fed purchased $820 mln worth of 2015-2017 maturities through POMO
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Täna otsustas turg paraku oma suuna peale avanemist taas allapoole võtta ning hetkeks on kogu hommikune pluss ära müüdud. Nii nagu hommikul oli arvata, siis täpselt turu jälgedes on käinud ka AA ning täna jäi AA ainult eelturu mänguks, kus aktsia käis ära ka $ 11,80 peal. AA avanes $ 11,78 peal ning on alates avanemisest koos turuga alla tiksunud, kaubeldes hetkel $ 11,25 kandis, 0,4% plusspoolel.
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Universal Display Corp. (PANL)
OLED technology name PANL is trading up nearly 23% today at intraday highs. The move follows the announcement earlier today that LG Electronics will launch an OLED screen featured phone in Europe this fall. The phone, called the Optimus Sol, will run on the Android platform. For background on the co, PANL holds many of the OLED patents and supplies OLED materials to large manufacturers including LG. Overall, the OLED market is still in its early stages and has yet to gain significant adoption. Samsung, which also has a relationship with PANL, is the only other handset major maker selling large OLED based screen smartphones in the market. It's also worth noting that the wake of GOOG's deal to buy MMI for its intellectual property, many of the smaller patent holding tech companies have seen strenght recently. PANL's patent portfolio is large license revenue generator for the co.
