Börsipäev 25. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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USA aktsiaturud lõpetasid eile kolmandat päeva kõrgemal, kui S&P 500 indeks kerkis 1,3% eesotsas finantssektori ralliga. Kulla odavnemine üle 100 dollari võrra ja valitsuse võlakirjade tulususte tõus rääkis samuti risk-on sentimendist, kuid teisalt püsis VIX sisuliselt muutumatuna ning ka toorained ei läinud kaasa. Segaseid signaale tingib tõenäoliselt Bernanke reedene esinemine, sest ehkki laiem seltskond arvab, et QE3 veel ei tule, siis teatud risk tingib tõenäoliselt ka lühikeste positsioonide katmisi.
Möödunud nädala esmakordsed töötuabiraha taotluste number (kl 15.30) on makro, mida täna kõige hoolsamalt jälgitakse. Viimased andmed näitasid kerget tõusu, kuid arvestades seda, et tegu on juhtiva indikaatoriga, siis mitmete teiste halvenenud näitajate kõrval on töötuabiraha taotluste number suhteliselt stabiilsena püsinud. Sestap võib tänane data anda aimu, kas trend on taas ülespoole.
Dow ja S&P500 futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,3% punases, Nasdaq aga Apple’i tegevjuhi Steve Jobsi errumineku tõttu -0,9% madalamal. Euroopa turud on aga avanemas 0,2% kõrgemal. -
Kui eile tegi Kreeka 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus euroaja rekordi 40,47% juures, siis täna on ka 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus teinud uue euroaja tipu 18,46% juures. EURUSD hetkel +0,35% ja kaupleb 1,4465 tasemel.
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CME tõstis eile kulla tagatisnõuet 27%, olles alles kaks nädalat tagasi kergitanud seda 22%. Paratamatult tuleb meelde hetk kevadel, kus CME tõstis 26. aprilli ja 5. mai vahel hõbeda tagatist kokku 84%, tingides sellega hõbeda 27%lise hinnalanguse, kuna ebapiisava tagatiseta investorid ja spekulandid sunniti turult lahkuma. Kuld tegi eile läbi 5,6%lise kukkumise ning täna on langust kogunenud juba ligi 3%, mis toonud hinna tagasi 1700 dollari lähedale.
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Kui jälgida kevadist hõbeda liikumist, siis peale 5 maid oli ``kassi põrge`` ja PEALE SEDA oli ostukoht.
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Jah, kes see ütleb nüüd, kas CME tõstab edasi tagatisnõuet või mitte. Marc Faberi ning mitmete teiste jaoks on 200 taalane allatulek juba paraegu heaks võimaluseks positsiooni suurendada.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PSS +33.3%, SIG +11.6%, TIVO +10.8%, DEO +5.8%, RGS +3.6% (light volume), Z +2.6% (light volume).
M&A news: OCNF +6.9% (DryShips and OceanFreight announce that Dryships acquires majority of Oceanfreight shares), RLRN +5.0% (Renaissance Learning receives unsolicited non-binding proposal from Plato Learning for $15.50 per share in cash).
Select financial related names showing strength: BCS +5.6%, BAC +3.3%, RBS +3%, DB +2.1%, ING +1.8%, STD +0.9%, UBS +0.7%.
Select mining stocks trading higher: MT +1.7%, BBL +1.6%, BHP +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale).
A few mortgage related names seeing continued strength on light volume: PMI +9.1%, RDN +7.5%, MTG +2.4%.
Other news: PSTI +4.8% (PLX Cells Receive Orphan Drug Status for Treatment of Buerger's Disease), ORIT +3.4% (will replace optionsXpress Holdings in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), CLR +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: GAME +7.4% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), STEM +6.6% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital), RA +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), FFIV +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), PEI +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette). -
Futuurid liikusid data peale sammukese ülespoole. Järjekordne koht, kus otsitakse kinnitust QE vajadusele?
Continuing Claims falls to 3.641 mln from 3.721 mln
Initial Claims 417K vs 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 412K from 408K -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BWS -13.2%, RUE -11%, SIGM -8.8%, AMAT -5.4%, GES -5.1%, SDRL -2.7%, SMTC -2%.
Select metals stocks trading lower: AUQ -4.6%, EGO -3.2%, UXG -3.1%, CDE -3.0%, AUY -2.9%, GOLD -2.8%, ABX -1.9%, IAG -1.6%, GLD -1.6%, RGLD -1.6%, GDX -1.2%.
A few European drug names are trading lower: NVS -2.1%, SNY -1.9%, AZN -1.8%
Other news: OXBT -13.6% (announces dismissal of Chris J. Stern as CEO), AAPL -2.2% (Apple CEO Steve Jobs resigns), RCL -1.6% (informed by Cruise Associates and A Wilhelmsen AS, its two largest shareholders, that they have terminated the Shareholders' Agreement between themselves), GTAT -1.4% (acquires Confluence Solar developer of innovative continuous Czochralski growth process for $60 mln in cash).
Analyst comments: GGG -2.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), HPQ -0.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital). -
Savoring the Bounce
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Aug 25, 2011 | 8:22 AM
"The degree of one's emotions varies inversely with one's knowledge of the facts."
-- Bertrand Russell
Although volume has been light and buying enthusiasm muted, the market has put together a decent two-day bounce. Steve Jobs' resignation is causing a slight hiccup for Nasdaq this morning, but the senior indices are shrugging it off. The almost universal belief that Apple (AAPL) is a buy on weakness is keeping the downside contained.
Gold is down sharply again, overseas markets were up and it looks like our bounce is set to continue into the weekly unemployment numbers. Overall, the mood is sanguine but confidence is building that this second oversold bounce in two weeks is going to mark a lasting low.
Maybe that will turn out to be the case, but it is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech tomorrow and the reaction to it that is going to set the market's near-term course. Bernanke has a history of being market friendly in his comments, and the market is obviously anticipating hearing something that the bulls will like.
The bears are shaking their heads and saying, "It isn’t going to be so easy this time."
We don’t have the same conditions in place that made QE2 such a big market driver and there really isn’t all that much that the Fed can do at this point.
The bears paint a bleak picture. The economy has obviously slowed, the European sovereign debt issues remain largely unresolved and the market has broken down technically. Throw in the fact that we are entering the weakest time of the year seasonally and it is easy to see the bearish view.
The bulls response is, "Aren’t these the same folks who claimed this market was dead last August, just when we embarked on a massive, straight up rally?"
The ability of this market to come back from pullbacks has been legion the last few years and the bears are asking for trouble if they think that this time it is different.
What it boils down to is that logic favors the bears but emotion favors the bulls. That doesn’t make for easy trading, but it defines the battle lines. There isn’t any great reason to believe that we are making a lasting low and are going to see a major uptrend develop. On the other hand, that is exactly what this market has done under similar circumstances.
I’m waiting for the bulls to convince me they have the juice to turn this market back up again. Technically, charts are a mess and I see very little I want to own. But if we continue to hold up, that is going to change and I’ll put more capital to work. All we have going right now is a decent countertrend bounce, and I see no reason to treat it as anything more than that.
Today is likely to be choppy as market players position for Bernanke tomorrow, so it will be hard to draw any major conclusions. But the bulls are pushing and the bears are thinking sell the news.
Let’s see how the weekly unemployment claims come in and we will go from there. -
Berkshire Hathaway to Invest $5 Billion in Bank of America
Futuurid hoobilt üleval +0,6% -
BAC reached an agreement to sell 50,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share to Berkshire Hathaway in a private offering. The preferred stock has a dividend of 6% per annum, payable in equal quarterly installments, and is redeemable by the company at any time at a 5% premium. In conjunction with this agreement, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase 700,000,000 shares of BAC common stock at an exercise price of $7.142857 per share. The warrants may be exercised in whole or in part at any time, and from time to time, during the 10-year period following the closing date of the transaction. The aggregate purchase price to be received by Bank of America for the preferred stock and warrants is $5 billion in cash. BAC CEO Brian Moynihan says: "I remain confident that we have the capital and liquidity we need to run our business. At the same time, I also recognize that a large investment by Warren Buffett is a strong endorsement in our vision and our strategy."
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Tänased tööturunumbrid siis Verizoni streigi mõjusid arvestamata suhteliselt nagu oodatud, recessionist suurt märki ei ole - no on häda selle majandusega, mitte ei taha auku kukkuda, et onu Ben saaks kõiki rahaga üle valada. Siin oleks õige müüa :-)
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Nonii, müük käibki täie hooga. Hakkab vist kohale jõudma, et maailma ikka ei ole kohe lõppemas ja onu Ben-i käest vist ikka homme raha ei saa... Kus on küll vanad head ajad, kui turge liigutas majandus mitte poliitika?
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Fed purchases $439 mln worth of 2013-2041 TIPS through its Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $3.55 bln worth
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Prantsusmaa ja Hispaania pikendasid finantssektori aktsiate lühikeseks müügi keeldu 11. novembrini.
