Börsipäev 29. august
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Ehkki Bernanke ei avalikustanud oma reedeses kõnes järjekordset kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise programmi ega puudutanud pikemalt võimalusi, kuidas USA majandust stimuleerida, siis need vahendid on keskpangal olemas ning septembri FOMC kohtumine kujuneb tõenäoliselt sündmuseks, mil neid arutatakse.
USA indeksite futuurid on 0,8%-lise tõusuga inidkeerimas jätku reedesele rallile ning ka Euroopa on avanenud tublisti kõrgemal. Tänase makro kohalt võiks huvitavama infona välja tuua USA isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste juulikuu muutuse (kell 15.30) ja pooleliolnud kinnisvaratehingute arvu (17.00). -
Seoses Bernanke reedese kõnega on WSJ võtnud graafiliselt kokku eelmise nädala liikumised Dow Jones'i tööstuskeskmises:
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Dow Jones Newswires andmetel teatas Hiina Keskpank reedel, et pangad peavad reservinõude juures hakkama arvestama ka klientide tagatistega. Analüütikute andmetel eemaldab see samm süsteemist 21.5%-lise reservimäära korral ca $125 miljardit järgmise aasta veebruariks, mil uus reegel täielikult jõustub ning on võrdväärne reservimäära 1.2-1.3 protsendipunktilise tõstmisega.
Hiina pangad reageerisid uudisele langusega: Bank of China -1%, Bank of Communications -2.3%, China Merchants Bank -2.9%. -
Gapping up
M&A news: NXG +43.2% (AuRico will acquire all common shares of Northgate on the basis of 0.365 AuRico common shares), VQ +30.3% (announces receipt of 'going private' proposal from CEO at $12.50/share).
Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +28.6% (lifting on Greek bank merger news), BAC +3.1% (continued strength on reports that the co is nearing sale of Construction Bank stake), C +2.2%, DB +1.9%, UBS +1.9%, MS +1.7%, CS +1.6%, GS +1.1%, HBC +0.6%, .
A few mortgage names seeing continued strength: PMI +10.4%, MTG +5.3%, AGO +1.0%.
A few insurance related names lifting on less-than-feared Hurricane Irene damage: HIG +3.0%, ALL +2.5%, TRV +2.8%.
Select oil/gas related names showing modest strength: E +1.6%, TOT +1.6%, BP +1.1%, RDS.A +0.4%.
Other news: HRZ +42.9% (light volume; enters into modified and committed agreement with convertible note holders for complete refinancing), LPHI +20.6% (light volume, still checking), SCEI +12% (announces cooperation MOU with Nathalin Welstar Energy), YOKU +9.4% (Youku and DreamWorks Animation Enter online distribution agreement for KungFu Panda Films in China), CIGX +8.8% (modestly rebounding), JNY +3.7% (ticking higher following positive mention in financial newspaper), TTM +3.2% (still checking), MOS +2% (ticking higher; early strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper), BMY +1.8% and PFE +1.0% (Bristol-Myers and Pfizer announce ELIQUIS was Superior to Warfarin for the reduction of stroke or systemic embolism with significantly less major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation in Phase 3 ARISTOTLE Trial), PAAS +1.3% (announces normal course issuer bid; co to repurchase up to 5% of issued and outstanding common shares), AAPL +0.9% (strength attributed to positive mention in financial newspaper), TIF +0.8% (continued strength; positive mention in financial newspaper).
Analyst comments: B +2.1% (ticking higher upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), GVA +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), AMR +2.1% (AMR upgraded to Neutral at Ticonderoga on valuation). -
Macquarie tõstab täna Research In Motion (RIMM)-i hinnasihi $ 40 pealt $ 42 peale ja kinnitab oma Osta soovitust.
We are becoming increasingly comfortable with our contrarian Buy thesis on RIM following several attractive product and apps launches, some visibility into QNX Android compatibility and shifting industry dynamics. We continue to view RIM’s ~70mm recurring revenue subs, strong int’l. franchise, popular BBM service, and its 11,000 patents and Nortel license as vastly undervalued and underappreciated by the Street. Despite the recent move, US institutional interest in RIM is extremely low and solid upside remains as guidance risk diminishes.
Analüütikute sõnul kinnitavad ettevõtte uued tooted ja aplikatsioonid nende Osta soovituse teesi veelgi, sest turg alahindab hetkel nii RIM-i tugevust rahvusvahelisel turul ning ettevõtte 11 000 patenti. Institustioonide huvi aktsia vastu on hetkel äärmiselt madal, kuigi ülepoole liikumise võimalus on hetkel üsna korralik.
Strong int’l. growth should drive higher Aug. qtr. units, but at lower ASPs. We raise FQ2 unit forecasts by 5.6% to 12.4mm units and now expect $256 ASPs as price cuts on legacy products impact mix ahead of a major product launch.
New devices are better than most expected and should drive a meaningful enterprise refresh. While not revolutionary, the new Bold and Curve devices are a big improvement and should sell well based on our carrier checks. We have also factored in a roughly 10% opex cut over FQ2 and FQ3 due to cost cuts.
Analüütikute andmetel on käesoleval kvartalil müük läinud oodatust paremini ja seda eriti rahvusvahelistel turgudel, kuigi selle juures on ka keskmine hind vähenenud. Kuigi uued telefonid pole just revolutsioonilised, siis on need igal juhul läbi teinud korraliku uuenduskuuri ja edasimüüjate info põhjal peaksid ka hästi müüma.
New music service is a social platform leveraging BBM not another store.
GOOG is likely to keep MMI’s hardware business, weakening Samsung and HTC and creating an opportunity for RIM as a GOOG partner, in our view.
CEOs Mike and Jim now looking smart with hybrid QNX/Android OS as Samsung and HTC could be scrambling to build up internal patent and OS capabilities. We believe that Samsung, HTC and other OHA members will likely evolve into hybrid OS’s like QNX is with its Android apps. These players will likely have to build up their own IP and improve upon Bada and other organic OS’s to keep up with vertically integrated GOOG and AAPL long term.
Tegemist ei ole väga tugeva calliga (ei ole upgrade) ja ka antud analüüsimaja ei kuulu kõige mõjukamate hulka. Kuid RIMM võib täna ostuhuvi leida, kui turu toetus püsib, sest RIMM-i kohalt on hakanud tasapisi nö surmavari lahkuma ning nii mõnedki analüütikud on viimasel ajal RIMM-i positiivses kontekstis kommenteerinud.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia eelturul $ 29,80 kandis, 2,3% plusspoolel. -
July Personal Income +0.3% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
July Personal Spending +0.8% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LDK -3.1%.
Select metals related names trading lower: SLW -1.1%, SLV -1%, GLD -0.5%.
M&A news: AUQ -5.5% (AuRico will acquire all common shares of Northgate on the basis of 0.365 AuRico common shares).
Analyst comments: RHI -0.4% (ticking lower; downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
July Pending Home Sales M/M Change -1.3% vs -1.4% Briefing.com consensus
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Erko Rebane
June Pending Home Sales M/M Change -1.3% vs -1.4% Briefing.com consensus
mõnede allikate andmetel July Pending Home Sales -
õigus. Bloombergis näitab juulit. Parandasin ära
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Bank of America (BAC) tõstis taas kapitali, müües maha 13,1 miljardit CCB (China Construction Bank) aktsiat kogusummas $8,3 miljardit. Firma juhtkond väidab, et viimasel ajal aset leidnud varade müük on tehtud eesmärgiga rahustada investoreid, kes kardavad, et pank ei suuda täita Basel III kapitalinõudeid 2013. aastaks.
Zerohedge on kommenteerinud temale omase sarkasmiga:
Bank Of America Sells 13.1 Billion Shares In China Construction Bank, Raises Another $8.3 Billion "It Does Not Need" -
Dallas Fedi töötleva tööstuse indeks -11,4 vs oodatud -9,0 (juulis -2)
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The Fed purchased a total of $3.15 bn worth of 2018-2021 maturities through POMO as dealers looked to put back $10.02 bln worth
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Tudou: SINA Corporation discloses 9.05% stake in 13D filing
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Täna läks mu eeldus, et RIMM koos turuga samuti üles ostetakse täiesti vett vedama. Tugevust jagus ainult eelturule ning alates avanemisest on aktsia võrreldes ülejäänud turuga ikkagi väga nõrgalt käitunud. Aktsia avanes $ 29,94 pealt ja hetkel kaupleb $ 29,75 kandis, 1,9 % plusspoolel.
