Börsipäev 8. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turgudel hingati eile vahelduseks taas kergemalt, kui Saksamaa riigikohtu arvates on eurotsooni riikide päästepaketid olnud seaduslikud ning Itaalia senat kiitis heaks üle 50 miljardi euro ulatuses kärpeid ja maksutõususid, mis nüüd liigub parlamendi alamkotta hääletamisele. Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirjaintressid tulid selle peale pisut madalamale, kuid oma käsi oli seal mängus ka EKP-l, kes oli sunnitud suurema ostmise läbi taas tuge pakkuma.
Fedi Beige Book ei avaldanud turgudele suurt muljet, kui maalitud pilt sai kuuga pisut nukrama alatooni. Mitmetes ringkondades oli aktsiaturgude kasvanud volatiilsus ja suurenenud majanduslik ebamäärasus tinginud lähituleviku ootuste allapoole toomise või ettevaatlikuma suhtumise. Raporti kohaselt oli tarbijate ex-auto kulutused mitmetest ringkondades jäänud samaks või veidi kahanenud, nõudlus laenude järele ja tööturg püsinud stabiilsena. Chicago Fedi president Charles Evans ütles eile, et praegused olud kirjeldavad üha rohkem majandust, mis on retsessioonis ning tema kohaselt peaks FED kaaluma agressiivsemaid meetmeid. Täna peab kõne Ben Bernanke, ent raske uskuda, et see avaldaks veidi rohkem infot võrreldes Jackson Hole’i esinemisega. Kui mingi samm tehakse, siis tõenäoliselt kuuleme sellest alles pärast 20-21 septembri FOMC kohtumist.
Suuremat tähelepanu võiks aga saada täna Euroopa Keskpanga miiting, kus ühtlasi avalikustatakse värsked majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooniprognoosid. Trichet vihjas hiljutises kõnes, et risk hinnatõusu kiirenemise osas võib olla leevenenud ja pressikonverentsil võidakse seega anda märk intresside tõstmise peatamisest mõneks ajaks. Kuigi paljude arvates peaks EKP langetama intressi, siis selline samm tuleks praegu pigem üllatusena. Intresside samaks jätmist oodatakse ka Inglise keskpangalt. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste suurusjärk ja mingi hetk peab kõne president Obama, kellelt oodatakse mitmete tööturu elavdamiseks kasutatavate meetmete pikendamist.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas 0,2-0,3% kõrgemal. -
WSJ tänane artikkel lahkab taas pikemalt kolme alternatiivi, mida FOMC 20-21. septembri kohtumisel tõenäoliselt kaalutakse.
One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank's portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.The move—known to some in markets as "Operation Twist" and to some inside the Fed as "maturity extension"—is meant to further push down long-term interest rates and thus encourage economic activity. The program draws its name from a similar 1960s effort by the U.S. Treasury and the Fed, in which they tried to "twist" interest rates so that long-term rates were lower relative to short-term rates.
A second step under consideration at the Fed, one getting mixed reviews internally, would reduce or eliminate a 0.25% interest rate the Fed currently is paying banks that keep cash on reserve with the central bank.
A third step Fed officials are debating would involve using their words to make their economic objectives and plans for interest rates more clear.Some officials felt the Fed's August pledge to keep rates low until 2013 wasn't specific enough about what was driving its thinking. They want the Fed to say what unemployment rate or inflation rate would trigger it to boost rates. -
David Tepper, kes aasta tagasi tõdes, QE2 loob turgudel win-win olukorra, on tänavu jäämas ettevaatlikumaks ning eelistanud suurendada raha osakaalu. Via Institutional Investor
Word is he will remain cautious until there is improvement in the European bank crisis. Of course, if the markets tank, you can be sure he’ll be aggressively scouring for bargains. -
Kas septembris pidi Itaalia suurema koguse võlakirju lunastama? Kui jah, siis kuidas see Euroopat olukorda võib mõjutada? Kui suur see summa on?
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Kuigi Austraalia majandusel läks teises kvartalis oodatus paremini, siis globaalsete turgude närvilisus on peegeldumas hästi sealsel tööturul, kus juulis vähendati töökohtade arvu 9700 võrra, samal ajal kui konsensus ootas 10 000 töökohta loomist. See on tõstnud töötusemäära ühe kuuga 5,1% pealt 5,3% peale (kõrgeim alates 2010.a oktoobrist) ning kindlasti annab mõtlemisainet keskpangale, kes eile otsustas jätta intressimäära muutmata (4,75%).
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Marek9
Kas septembris pidi Itaalia suurema koguse võlakirju lunastama? Kui jah, siis kuidas see Euroopat olukorda võib mõjutada? Kui suur see summa on?
Itaalia peab BNP Paribase kohaselt sel aastal veel müüma ligi 90 miljardi euro jagu võlakirju ning september saab tõesti olema tõsine proovikivi, kui 46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta. Ma arvan, et enne EFSFi uute tingimuste ratifitseerimist eurotsooni valitsuste poolt peab EKP nii palju enda poolt toetama, et võlakirja emissioonidest ei kujuneks erilist mõju finantsturgudele. -
Erko kirjutab Itaalia kohta, et "46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta", kas nad tõesti on kunagi midagi tagasi maksnud??? Või annavad hoopis eelmiste aegunud võlakirjade eest vastavalt intressile rohkem uusi, mille eest saab tulevikus veel rohkem uusi võlakirju ja nii aegade lõpuni?
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kurnjau
Erko kirjutab Itaalia kohta, et "46 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga tuleb tagasi maksta", kas nad tõesti on kunagi midagi tagasi maksnud??? Või annavad hoopis eelmiste aegunud võlakirjade eest vastavalt intressile rohkem uusi, mille eest saab tulevikus veel rohkem uusi võlakirju ja nii aegade lõpuni?
Et Itaalia võlakoorem mingi hetk vähenema hakkaks, peaks kaduma eelarvedefitsiit, mis praegu oleks tegelikult ülejäägis, kui puuduksid tohutud intressikohustused. Seni aga tuleb vanasid võlgasid tõepoolest finantseerida uutega. -
04.09.11: Italy must redeem €14.6bn of debt this week and €62bn by the end of September, the highest ever in a single month. It must roll over €170bn by December.
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Bloombergist võetud info näitab samuti, et septembris tuleb tagasi maksta 46 miljardit (intress+põhiosamakse) ning sel aastal kokku veel 113 miljardit. Võta siis kinni, keda uskuda :)
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Nojah see "this week" @04.09.11 võib tähendada kas nädalat 35 või 36 ja 62 - 14,6 = 47,4 niiet sept. peaaegu klapib.
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Vaatamata sellele, et inflatsioon Suurbritannias küündis juulis juba 4,4%ni ning Inglise keskpanga president oli sunnitud kirjutama rahandusministrile juba seitsmenda järjestikuse kirja põhjustest, miks inflatsioon on kõrgem keskpanga poolt eesmärgiks saavutatud 2%st, siis ka UK puhul on üha häälekamalt hakatud nõudma uut rahatrükki. Täna kirjutab Telegraph, et Institute of Directors pooldaks võlakirjade ostuprogrammi suurendamist 50 miljardi naela võrra.
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BOE jättis intressimäära 0,5% peale, ega muutnud 200 miljardi naela suurust võlakirjade ostuprogrammi.
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Nael on dollar vastu saanud veidi tuge sellest, et uut rahatrükki ei tulnud, kaubeldes 0,35% kõrgemal @ 1,6035 USD
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European Central Bank holds its benchmark interest rate at 1.50%
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Continuing Claims 3.717 mln vs. 3.7 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior 3.735 mln
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 414K vs. 400K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 412K from 409K -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HOV +9.1%, SFD +2.2%, HWD +2%, (light volume).
M&A news: CALP +35.3% (Caliper Life Sciences to be acquired by PerkinElmer for $10.50/share valued at ~600 mln in cash), PMIC (Penn Millers Hldg to be acquired by ACE for 20.50 per share in cash).
A few financial related names are modestly higher: CS +1.8%, RBS +1.2%, DB +0.6%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +2.7%, GOLD +2.3%, AUY +2.1%, GLD +1.7%, SLV +1.6%, EGO +1.6%, RGLD +1.3%.
Other news: LUNA +17.8% (thinly traded, still checking), NEOP +4% (announced that it received positive scientific advice late last week from the European Medicines Agency on the development of RIGScanTM CR), PAY +3.1% (will replace TBL in the S&P MidCap 400 index), PLX +1.9% (ticking higher, Protalix BioTherapeutics Taliglucerase Alfa Phase III results published in Blood, the Journal of the American Society of Hematology), PCX +1.5% (provides investor update in 8K slides; Co disclosed that it expects $150 mln in incremental EBITDA from roll out of legacy contracts), NOK +0.9% (still checking for anything specific), DECK +0.8% (mentioned positively on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: AVII +6.9% (initiated with a Buy at Lazard), ACI +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities), RVBD +1.2% (initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James), JNPR +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga ), FTE +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), CSCO +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Auriga). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIII -12.1%, PLL -7.3%, SEAC -6.5%, TZOO -3.3% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), MW -2.4%, TITN -1% (light volume).
Select mining stocks trading lower: BHP -1.9%, MT -1.7%, BBL -1.6%, YZC -1.5%.
Other news: GNC -5.3% (files to sell 20.0 mln shares by selling stockholders), CLMT -4.3% (announces an 11 mln common unit offering), DG -2.9% (files for 25 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders), RPTP -2.3% (announces proposed public offering of common stock).
Analyst comments: NEE -1.5% (ticking lower, downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich). -
Trichet says inflation to stay clearly above 2.0% over coming months, should fall below 2.0% in 2012
Trichet says real GDP forecasts revised downwards to 1.4%-1.8% vs +1.5% - 2.3% in 2011; +0.4% - 2.4% vs +0.6% -2.8% in 2012 -
pärast oodatust paremat juuli personal spending numbrit rääkisid mõned optimistid Q3 GDP ootuste üles revideerimisest, nüüd veel veidi datat sellest, et vähemalt juulis ei olnud asjad Q3 GDP seisukohast halvad
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed much more than expected in July as strong Latin American demand helped push exports to a new record and imports fell slightly, a government report showed on Thursday.
The trade gap totaled $44.8 billion, 13.1 percent less than in June and well below a consensus forecast of $51.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed before the report. It was the biggest month-to-month percentage drop in the deficit since February 2009.
U.S. exports rose 3.6 percent to a record $178.0 billion, driven by record shipments to countries in South and Central America and higher demand from China and major oil producers. Records were also set for two large categories, goods and services, as well as for capital goods and autos -
Saksamaa 10 a võlakirja yield vajunud Tricheti kõne peale rekordmadalale tasemele
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We Can’t Change the Seasons
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
| Sep 08, 2011
Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in. -- Andrew Jackson quoting Napoleon Bonaparte
One of the most important skills that a trader can cultivate is the ability to shift quickly from patience to aggressive action and then back again. Great traders have the ability to do little for long periods of time and then suddenly act with great vigor when conditions shift to favor their approach.
Too often traders make the mistake of thinking that they have to always be in constant motion. They want to trade just as aggressively in a poor market, even when they don’t have any real advantage. At the other end of the spectrum are traders who become so frozen by the inertia of poor markets that they are unable to move when conditions change and they finally do have better opportunities.
Recently, I’ve been hearing from a great number of traders who are feeling quite frustrated because the market simply doesn’t favor their approach at this time. A big part of that is a function of the fact that we broke down in early August and have been struggling with a downtrend and a choppy trading range subsequently. The market has not favored the building of positions that can be held for days or weeks. There is no leadership other than precious metals and that is tough for the hot-money, momentum traders.
Like so many other things in the market, it is just the nature of the beast at times. The market has its seasons and there isn’t anything we can do to change them. We have to wait for things to shift, but the good news is that, ultimately, they always do. The one thing we can always count on from the market is change.
If you recognize that not all conditions are going to favor your approach to the market then it makes it easier to deal with those periods where there isn’t as much opportunity. The important thing is to not give up and to be lulled into complacency. You have to maintain your mental edge and be ready to shift into action completely and aggressively when things change. It might be a news headline or an intraday market turn, but at some point the conditions will favor your approach again and you have to be ready to seize the opportunities quickly.
Market players who take a more anticipatory approach to the market may see things differently. In fact, there are many traders who cultivate a style of not waiting for conditions to change. They want to constant want to guess when there will be a sudden turn and, hopefully, be in position to benefit when it does happen.
My view is that trying to time the market in that manner is just too much of a wild guess in most cases and that we are better off if we focus on being mentally prepared to react quickly. The difference between anticipating and reacting quickly can be quite minimal if you pay attention. In addition, the big benefit of a reactionary approach is that carries far less risk than an anticipatory one.
Right now this market just doesn’t favor a very aggressive approach for those who use my style of momentum trading. We don’t have any upside momentum right now, which means we are relegated to knocking out smaller, faster trades in order to stay active.
I’m sure there are other traders who find this market to be quite hospitable to their approach. If that is the case then now is the time they need to capitalize on that aggressively. If you feel you have an edge then seize it and make the most of it. If you don’t feel you have an advantage then don’t force it. Learn to shift from great patience to aggressive action and then back again.
With Ben Bernanke and President Obama on deck with speeches today the focus is very likely to be on the likelihood of another round of quantitative easing or some variation thereof. I don’t believe the market is expecting anything surprising from the president, but it will be hanging on every word from Chairman Bernanke.
We have very mild action in the early going as market players contemplate yesterday’s low volume bounce and the risk of more bad news out of Europe. It is not an easy trading environment for most but it helps if you simply acknowledge that fact. -
Molycorp (MCP) jumps to highs on volume; strength attributed to speculation that stock could be added to S&P 500, and reports that Hitachi is in talks to work with co on rare earth supplies
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Renren (RENN) jumps $0.30 on increased volume
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The Street veebilehel on artikkel terasetootjatest, mis logiseva majanduse taustal on üks rängemini pihta saanud sektoreid üldse. Kuna terasetootjate edu sõltub enamalt jaolt makromajandusest, siis ei ole ka üllatav, et investorid just neist aktsiatest esimeses järjekorras on soovinud vabaneda.
Artiklis kirjutatakse, et vaatamata endiselt nõrkadele makronäitajatele võiks terasetootjate aktsiad uuesti radarile võtta, sest Obama töökohtade loomisplaan lubab suurendada kulutusi infrastruktuurile, mis suurendab nõudlust ka tearsele. Samas tuleb arvestada, et terasesektor on üsna killustunud ja sõltub palju ka näiteks autotööstusest ja ehitusturust.
Artklis mainitud aktsiad on NUE,AKS,X,STLD jja RS. -
OpenTable (OPEN) drops over 4 pts on news that GOOG has acquired restaurant/travel review co Zagat
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Business Insider kirjutab, et Yahoo! (YHOO) kaasasutaja Jerry Yang uurib väidetavalt võimalusi firma ära ostmiseks. Yang on ka pidanud ettevõttes CEO ametit ja hetkel kuulub talle 3,63% firmast. Yahoo ise kommentaare andma ei soostunud.
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Dendreon (DNDN) announced restructuring plans, overall cost reductions, and an update on PROVENGE; reported August gross revenues of approximately $22 million.
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VeriSign (VRSN) CFO Leaving Company to Pursue New Opportunities
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DNDN COO lahkub firmast ja koondatakse 500 töökohta, mis on ca 25% nende tööjõust.
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DNDN kohta ka Goldman kommentaare andmas:
We were encouraged by:
1) the uptick in August (+$3 mn over July), which if it continues could generate Provenge revenues of $237 mn for 2011 (vs. us and consensus of $219 mn) and $500 mn+ for 2012;
2) expenses are being managed and reduced downwards though several questions on margins and fixed costs remain; and
3) the commentary on reimbursement and number of accounts infusing Provenge was positive. We are adjusting our estimates to reflect these updates.
Upside remains contingent on execution and Provenge demand
generation: Over the next 12 months, management has to meaningfully accelerate Provenge sales (with expenses being in line with today’s update). We believe only this will address the key investor concerns of demand and profitability, and the secondary concern of any need to raise capital.
Valuation: Our Buy rating and 12-month, DCF & M&A-derived PT of $19 are unchanged.
Key risks: Risk to the downside remains disappointing Provenge sales. -
DNDN varasem PT oli Goldmanil $20. Nüüd siis $19, mis tuleneb nende biopharma sektori M&A väärtusmudeli ümberarvestusest. Eraldi note eile:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=971&mn=417748&pt=msg&mid=10925892
