Börsipäev 12. september
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Ei Hiina aeglustunud inflatsioon ega ka president Obama avalikustatud plaan vähendada tööpuudust Ühendriikides pakkunud reedel turgudele erilist lohutust, kui kulutulena hakkas levima spekulatsioon Kreeka võimalikust maksejõuetuse väljakuulutamisest nädalavahetusel. Peaminister Papandreou lubas laupäeval defaulti vältimiseks teha kõik, kuid näib, et turud on seisukohal, et küsimus on pigem ajas, mitte enam ärahoidmise võimalikkuses. Sel nädalal on troika taas Ateenasse suundumas ning pärast hiljuti lõppenud rahulomatut visiiti on Kreeka nädalavahetusel juurutanud täiendavad kaks fiskaalmeedet: koheselt rakenduv kinnisvaramaks ning ametnike töötasu kärpimine ühe kuupalga jagu, millega üritatakse täita selle aasta eelarves 2 miljardi eurost auku. Järgmise aasta eelarvet tutvustatakse 1. oktoobril.
Olulisi makrouudiseid täna tulemas ei ole ning turgudel jätkatakse seedimist sündmusi Kreeka osas. Finantssektori pea kohal hoiab kirvest sel nädalal Moody’s, kes on lubanud avalikustada Prantsuse pankade võimaliku krediidireitingu muudatuse, olles juunis määranud neile negatiivse väljavaate. Berliinis kohtuvad täna Merkel ja Barroso ning Obama esitab oma plaani Kongressile.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel veidi üle 1% jagu miinuses ning Euroopa on avanemas ca -1,5%-lise kaotusega. -
Prantsuse pangad on täna jällegi müügisurve all – BNP Paribas -11%, Societe Generale ja Credit Agricole -10%. Prantsusmaa turuväärtuselt teine pank Societe Generale, mille aktsia hind on alates augustist kaotanud pea poole oma väärtusest proovis küll investoreid teadaandega varade müügi kiirendamise ja kulude kärpimise kohta rahustada, kuid sellest oli vähe kasu.
Societe Generale teatas, et kavatseb läbi eeltoodud tegevuste tõsta €4 miljardit kapitali aastaks 2013. Samuti öeldi, et PIIGS riikide võla exposure on madal ja kahanev ning 9. septembri seisuga oli pangal €4.3 miljardi väärtuses Kreeka, Iirimaa, Itaalia, Portugali ja Hispaania võlga. Samuti ei vaja pank täiendavat kapitali, sest varade müügi ja kulude kärpimise tulemusel peaks panga Tier 1 kapitalisuhe 2013. aastal olema märkimisväärselt kõrgemal nõutud 9% tasemest. (link) -
Tänane WSJ kirjutab, et RIMM-l võib olla veel lootust kaotuseisust nutitelefonideturul välja tulla, kuna Indoneesias BlackBerryde populaarsus aina kasvab. Indoneesia telekomid ütlevad, et BlackBerry kasutajate hulk on ainuüksi viimase aastaga kolmekordistunud ja viiest enimmüüdud nutitelefonist seal on neli BlackBerry mudelid.
Põhja-Ameerikas on RIMM drastiliselt turgu kaotanud ja käesoleva aasta esimeses pooles langenud 13%-ni, aga Indoneenias on seevastu turuosa kasvanud 9%-lt 47%-ni.
Üsna edukalt läheb RIM-l ka Tais ja Filipiinidel, kus RIM-i mudelid on enimmüüdud nutitelefonide seas ja Nigeerias on BlackBerryst saanud lausa staatuse sümbol, sest seal jookseb väga populaarne film nimega "BlackBerry Babes".
Artiklis kirjutatakse, et paljudes arenevates riikides ei täida BlackBerry mitte ainult telefoni rolli vaid on kasutajate jaoks ka parim ja tihtipeale ainuke vahend internetti pääsemiseks. Väga vähesed inimesed saavad neis riikides lubada endale arvutit ja seetõttu on telefon nende ainus võimalus saada ligipääs populaarsetele sotsiaalvõrgustiku veebilehtedele nagu Twitter ja Facebook. Prognoositakse, et järgmise nelja aasta jooksul saab Aasia - Vaikse ookeani regioon Põhja-Ameerika asemel RIM-i suurimaks turuks. -
Prantsusmaal tuumajaamas plahvatus.
BBC: There is a risk of a radioactive leak after a blast at the southern French nuclear plant of Marcoule, media reports say.
Tuumajaama operaator Électricité de France (EDF) aktsia ca 6.5% languses hetkel. -
DAX Index Value juba alla 5 000 punkti! Raju andmine!
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Erki Kert
Prantsusmaal tuumajaamas plahvatus.
BBC: There is a risk of a radioactive leak after a blast at the southern French nuclear plant of Marcoule, media reports say.
Tuumajaama operaator Électricité de France (EDF) aktsia ca 6.5% languses hetkel.
Marcoule is a nuclear waste management site that does not include any reactors. -
10 aasta graafiku pealt võiks DAX toetust saada 4500-4600 kandis,nüüd tuleb ka tuumatalve võimalus hindadesse sisse kanda ,võime sinna jõuda juba sellel nädalal.
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OPEC kärpis käesoleva aasta ja järgmise aasta maailma naftatarbimise prognoosi, viidates nõrgale majanduslikule olukorrale arenenud tööstusriikides ja nõrgale USA suvisele sõiduhooajale. 2011. aasta päevast tarbimisprognoosi vähendati 150 000 barreli võrra ehk 87.99 miljoni barrelini ning 2012. aasta vastavat näitajat toodi 40 000 barreli võrra allapoole ehk 89.26 miljoni barrelini. OPECi septembrikuu naftaturu raportiga saab tutvuda siin (PDF). Nafta kaupleb -1.7% madalamal $85.8 tasemel.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CCE +1.4% (ticking higher).
M&A news: GLBL +52.6% (signs merger agreement with Technip for $8.00 per share), NETL +50.6% (to be acquired by Broadcom for $50/share), IDCC +1.6% (experienced some volatility in late trade on Friday; attributed to reports on continued speculation related to interest in the co's patents).
Other news: RXII +38% (provides positive Neuvax Phase 3 clinical trial update- Co satisfied all requirements specified by the FDA and has initiated a clinical trial), CAVM +8.1% (up 8% following peer NETL news), BPAX +5.5% (successfully completes LibiGel pharmacokinetic study), NKTR +4.7% (reports positive results from Phase 2 clinical study of NKTR-102 in metastatic breast cancer), MHP +2.2% (to split into two public cos; McGraw-Hill Markets and McGraw-Hill Education; accelerates share repurchase program), NVDA +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), WYNN +1.8% (moves forward with new Macau resort plans, according to reports), SCCO +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney). -
IMF teatas, et Kreeka abipaketi järgmise osamakse väljastamine kiidetakse ilmselt heaks.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VSH -7.2%, THC -4.4% (light volume).
Financial related names under pressure: ING -7.4%, BBVA -6.8%, DB -6.6%, STD -6.6%, NBG -6%, C -3.7%, BAC -3.2%, UBS -2.9%, MS -2.5%, JPM -2.4%, HBC -1.9%, GS -1.7%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -3%, BHP -2.8%, AA -2.7%, BBL -2.2%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -4.1%, RDS.A -3.2%, HAL -2.9%, RIG -2.9%, BP -2.2%.
Analyst comments: DNDN -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital), DAR -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), NVS -3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill ), FDX -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), AJG -2.7%and WSH -2.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), SU -2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital). -
Take Punditry With a Grain of Salt
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 12, 2011
Objectivity requires taking subjectivity into account.
--Lorraine Code
The European sovereign debt crisis has the market under severe pressure once again as worries grow that Greece will default any day now. The market has been anticipating this to some degree, but the ramifications of this are not fully discounted. There is plenty of uncertainty and a good dose of fear as well.
Despite the poor action last week, it was quite fascinating to see how bullish many of the folks on television were. On Friday there were several "experts" stating that it was a good time to buy aggressively.
Some bargain-hunting in a poor market would not be at all unreasonable, especially for folks who are value buyers, but is it really a good time to load up when there are so many negatives out there and the market is acting so poorly?
The problem is that much of the advice we see in the financial media is not objective. Anyone who is active in the market is going to have a certain amount of subjectivity. If you making decisions, you have to believe in them -- and you are going to be inclined to justify those decisions even if you are losing money.
In downtrending markets like we have right now, the problem is generally worse because so many fund managers tend to be highly invested at all times. For many mutual fund managers, a cash position of 10% is considered to be high. If you are 90% long, of course you are going to be inclined to defend the market and suggest that others should be buying. No one wants to publically admit that they are wrong to be positioned the way that they are.
When I see money managers on television recommending that market players buy stocks aggressively, I always wonder how long they are already and how long they have been that way. I bet the folks who were talking about buying on Friday have been heavily long for a while and are sitting on some pretty good-sized unrealized losses. Can we really expect someone in that position to be objective about whether it is a good time to buy or not? If you knew that the person who is saying it is time to buy is 90% long and sitting on 10% unrealized losses, would you view the advice in the same manner as you would someone who is just buying for the first time?
Pundits who are holding big cash positions also can be guilty of a lack of objectivity. They obviously would be happy if stocks go lower, and they can outperform just by sitting on the sidelines.
Total objectivity just isn't possible, but if we take into account the likelihood of subjectivity, it can help us to make decisions. This is particularly important when we have a parade of bulls on television as the market is acting very poorly. We have to recognize that most of these money managers have already made up their minds and acted. They are going to be looking for reasons to justify what they have already done and, in many cases, they are not going to see the true condition of the market with much clarity.
I'm holding a very high level of cash, so my viewpoint is definitely not very bullish right now. As far as I'm concerned the market is acting very poorly and I see no reason to think it is going to hit a bottom very quickly. In fact, I expect that we won't see a good low until we take out the August lows first. We need to breach that level to shake out the folks who thought the lows were in and to cause some capitulation.
It is very rough out there, and if you are a trend follower at all, it's painfully obvious which way things are headed. I'm sure there will be the usual bottom-callers out there once again, but you can bet that most of them have already made up their minds and were buying last week. They have been wrong, and they are anxious to justify themselves.
Stay defensive; if you are buying, play it short term with tight stops. We are in a bear market and we need to appreciate that fact. -
WSJ kirjutab, et Wells Fargo (WFC) näeb jätkuvat kasvu laenunõudluses.
Panga CFO Timothy Sloan kinnitas täna, et vaatamata halvale majanduskliimale, on nõudlus laenude järele endiselt üsna hea. CFO rõhutas eraldi äriklientide kasvavat nõudlust laenude järele ning lisas veel et kuigi põhjuseid muretsemiseks oleks küllaga, siis nemad olulist nõudluse vähenemist oma klientide poolt ei prognoosi. -
Euroopa keskpank rahastas Kreeka pankasid juulikuus 96,3 miljardi euro ulatuses.
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Kuskilt jooksis läbi, et augustis oli see summa juba kusagil 103 mld juures, kui õigesti mäletan.
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Kuna turud hindavad Kreeka maksejõuetust täna reaalsemaks kui kunagi varem, siis on Business Insider välja toonud riigid, millede pangad on suurimad Kreeka võlausaldajad ja kannataks seeläbi ka kõige enam. Näiteks Prantsumaa pangad on laenanud Kreekale $ 14,96, Saksamaa pangad $ 22,65 ja UK pangad $ 3,4 miljardit. Kreeka maksejõuetus puudutaks ka paljusid teisi EU riike, rääkimata Euroopa Keskpangast.
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Kreeka 1-aastase võlakirja tulusus käis täna 139% juures. Hetkel veidi "normaalsemal" tasemel 117% juures:
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Kas tava inimene saab käsitleda seda võlakirja "loterii piletina"? St, kas ma õieti saan aru, et võib praegu osta, ja kui vedab ja defaulti ei tule, siis saad topelt kätte? :)
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Sellist teenimisvõimalust ei tohiks Jürgen küll käest lasta! Kogu valitsuse vaba raha pluss veel pisut laenuraha tuleks sellesse rahamasinasse investeerida :) Teiste kiitus veel peale kauba
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$32 bln 3-yr Note Auction Results: 0.334%; Bid/Cover 3.15x (Prior 3.29x, 12-auction avg 3.16x); Indirect Bidders 35.7% (Prior 47.9%, 12-auction avg 35.7%)
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Jätkates veel Kreeka teemal, siis DailyFX vahendusel graafik riigi võlakirjade tulususte kõverast täna vs üks kuu tagasi:
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FT kirjutab, et Itaalia pöördub abi saamiseks Hiina poole:
Italy’s centre-right government is turning to cash-rich China in the hope that Beijing will help rescue it from financial crisis by making “significant” purchases of Italian bonds and investments in strategic companies.
According to Italian officials, Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, led a delegation to Rome last week for talks with Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, and Italy’s Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, a state-controlled entity that has established an Italian Strategic Fund open to foreign investors.
