Börsipäev 16. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Riskantsemad varad olid eile taas investorite huviorbiidis pärast seda, kui keskpangad otsustasid koordineeritult toetada Euroopa finantsasutusi dollarlaenudega. Eelkõige peaks see kinnitama, et likviidsusprobleemide ulatus finantsturgudel on sarnanemas üha rohkem 2008-2009.a perioodile, ning puudutatud pole enam Euroopa, vaid kuna siinsete pankade käest saavad oma laenud ka Ameerika ja Aasia ettevõtted, siis olukorra halvenedes oleks mõju tuntav ka globaalselt. Ühtlasi võib keskpankade samm olla indikatsioon sellest, et olukord võib eelseisvatel kuudel veelgi karmimaks kujuneda.
Makrot jätkub tänasesse päeva vähe, kui USA poolelt kuuleme vaid Michigani tarbijasentimendi septembri muutuse kohta (kell 16.55). Lisaks kohtuvad täna Euroopa rahandusministrid ja keskpankade juhid, et arutada majanduskasvu allikaid ja finantsteenuseid. Kuigi võlakriis pole ametlikus kavas, siis tõenäoliselt diskuteeritakse siiski ka Soome tagatisnõuet, Kreeka astutud sammude vastavust järgmise laenueraldise saamiseks ja EFSF-i reformide heakskiitmise arengut.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel nulli lähedal, Euroopa on aga avanemas protsendi jagu kõrgemal. -
Matt Taibbi toob eilse UBSi või ükskõik millise eelneva sarnase juhtumi kohta üsna hea pointi välja
In the financial press you're called a "rogue trader" if you're some overperspired 28 year-old newbie who bypasses internal audits and quality control to make a disastrous trade that could sink the company. But if you're a well-groomed 60 year-old CEO who uses his authority to ignore quality control and internal audits in order to make disastrous trades that could sink the company, you get a bailout, a bonus, and heroic treatment in an Andrew Ross Sorkin book. -
Eilne kommentaar:
Nelli Janson
Time for a Ludicrus Forecast (again!)...Gun to my head - at some point we will be down on the day.
Doug Kassi kommentaar (9 minutit tagasi)
Ma pole nõnda ilusat tõusupäeva näinudki! Loodetavasti polnud Dougil kuule sees, tahaks temalt veel üht-teist kuulda... -
Erko, sa võiks panna siia LIBOR/OIS graafiku 2008-2009 ja siis praeguse... Koledast likviidsuskriisist on asi veel kaugel...
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Tõsi, päris Lehmani hetkega võrrelda ei anna aga siiski arvestatav närvilisus võrreldes sellelel eelnenud tasemetega
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HPQ-d on ootamas kohtutee, kuna investorid on firma kohtusse kaevanud. Peamiselt süüdistatakse firma juhtkonda ebatõese info jagamises, mis on investoreid eksitanud.
Esimene istung peaks aset leidma novembris ja kohus peab välja selgitama, kas firma juhtkond eesotsas Leò Apothekeriga valetas teadlikult, kui andis kommentaare ettevõtte strateegiliste plaanide osas. -
Citigroupi andmetel voolas arenevate turgude aktsiafondidest nädalaga välja $1.3 miljardit, mis märgib seitsmendat järjestikust nädalat, mil investorid antud fondidest raha välja tõmbavad. Citigroupi analüütiku Markus Rosgeni sõnul on põhjuseks Euroopa võlakriis, mille tõttu kardetakse arenevate turgude ekspordi vähenemist piirkonda ja üleüldine ebakindlus maailmamajanduse tuleviku osas. Põhiliselt voolas raha välja Hiina, Lõuna-Korea, India ja Taiwani turgudelt. (link)
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RIMM -20.3% (also downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), CBE -6.7%.
M&A news: TRH -2.3% (Transatlantic and Allied World mutually terminate merger agreement; TRH has agreed to pay AWH a termination fee in the amount of $35 mln; Transatlantic Board authorizes $600 million share repurchase), KCI -0.9% (lower cautious overseas newspaper report related to takeover bid).
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -1.2%, SD -1.2%, WFT -1.0%, BP -0.8% (New US government findings may cause BP to pay up to $30 bln to settle legal disputes).
Other news: BWEN -19.8% (commences public offering of common stock), PCX -7.8% (Patriot Coal updates 2011 3Q production; production is expected to be down ~450K tons, due primarily to geological issues impacting the co's two longwall mines), NOK -1.8% (lower following RIMM results), BAC -0.8% (keeping Countrywide bankruptcy on the table as option, according to report).
Analyst comments: WSO -2.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), ADBE -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities), DNDN -1.1% (initiated with an Underperform at William Blair). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PLUG +7.6% (thinly traded), DMND +6.9%, AIR +1.5% (ticking higher).
M&A news: NDN +15.6% (higher following NYPost story suggesting takeover potential), YHOO +1.7% (modestly higher on continued M&A speculation).
Select financial related names showing strength: BCS +3.1%, RBS +3.1% (upgraded to Add from Neutral at WestLB ), ING +2.9%, CS +2.6%, UBS +1.4%, DB +1.1%, HBC +0.7%.
Other news: MCP +3.9% (to break off discussions over Sumitomo's potential investment in Molycorp; capital investment needs have been filled), WMGI +3.6% (ticking higher, reaches agreements with U.S. Attorney's Office and OIG), TTM +3.1% (still checking), RPXC +1.9% (prices follow-on offering of common stock of 3 mln shares at $20.49), TXN +1.1% (raises dividend to $0.17/share from $0.13/share).
Analyst comments: AMTD +3.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), GILD +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman). -
You Can't Fight the Fed
ByJames "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 16, 2011
"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce."
--President James A. Garfield
Since the lows in March 2009, one of the easiest mistakes to make about the market is to be too pessimistic over concerns about the economy. We are undoubtedly suffering through the worst economy that most of us have ever seen. But even though the mood on Main Street has been tremendously gloomy for several years, the market has not acted poorly overall.
The primary reason the market has held up so well while the economic picture has remained so gloomy is central bank intervention. Cheap money provided by the Fed has had few places to go other than equities. Banks aren't lending money and interest rates are near zero, so there has been little choice but to buy stocks if you want to put capital to work.
Yesterday we had another dose of central bank intervention, but this time it was in Europe. We even have talk now of some sort of TARP program modeled after what was done in the U.S. a few years ago. While the central bank action hasn't changed many minds about the health of the European economy, it has provided a prop for the stock market. We have seen the results the last four days as we have gone successively higher.
Not only are central banks helping Europe, but next week we have a very important Fed meeting, and Chairman Ben Bernanke has already signaled that some sort of quantitative easing program is going to be announced. Economists are widely anticipating Operation Twist, which is intended to flatten the yield curve by lowering long-term interest rates. Since short-term rates are already near zero, this is the only way the Fed can make funds any cheaper.
We'll have plenty of chatter about the Fed next week, but the important point is that if you can't fight the central banks. Nothing much else matters to the stock market when cheap cash is sloshing around as the world's banks throw money at our problems.
The challenge for market players is that there is a laundry of list of negatives out there and it is hard to ignore them when they are so obvious. How can you be wildly bullish when our economy continues to sputter, unemployment is staying stubbornly high, the European sovereign debt crisis remains unresolved and market strategists have been aggressively cutting targets?
Making a bearish case has never been easier, and pessimism is extremely high, which is probably a big reason that this market has been moving straight up the last four days as the central banks ride to the rescue once again. Market players simply aren't prepared for it and too many doubt the power of the bankers.
The technical picture also presents a problem for market players looking to be more positive. We have had a four-day rally on mediocre volume and are now running into resistance at the August highs and the 50-day simple moving average. We are somewhat extended, and finding new entries after this run is not easy. Many thought we should have pulled back already, and they are being squeezed, as underinvested bulls aren't waiting for dips before they buy.
The central banks are calling the shots, and that is what's helping this market to levitate, despite the many negatives out there. It may not seem logical when you look at economic conditions, but cheap money drives the market better than anything else does.
We have a little weakness in the early going, but Europe is green and market players will be looking ahead to next week's Fed meeting, which limit the downside. If you are trying to fade this recent bounce, don't hesitate to take gains when you have them. -
September Michigan Sentiment 57.8 vs 56.3 Briefing.com consensus; August 55.7
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WSJ kirjutab, et järgmine aasta võib USA aktsiaturg näha ajalooliselt suurimat interneti IPO-t.
Tegemist on muule maailmale üsna tundmatu Hiina internetifirmaga Jingdong Century Trading omab veebilehte 360buy.com, mis on kiirelt kasvav internetipood, mille vahendusel saavad inimesed osta mitmesugust kaupa. Firma ärimudel sarnaneb Amazonile ja analüütikute arvates kasvab Hiina internetikaubandus kolme aasta jooksul viis korda ehk $ 100 miljardini.
Jingdong loodab IPO-ga saada $4-5 miljardit ja turule tulekut plaanitakse järgmise aasta esimeses pooles. Kui IPO ka tegelikkuses aset peaks leidma, siis ületab see oma suuruselt 2004. aastal toimunud Google (GOOG)-i IPO.
Jingdong annab tööd rohkem kui 12 000 inimesele, kuid ei ole veel kasumis. Möödunud aastal kasvas ettevõtte käive $ 1,6 miljardini $626 miljonilt (2009).
