Börsipäev 27. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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CNBC vahendusel jõudis eile USA sessiooni ajal kinnitav uudis, et EFSFi võimendamise plaan on tõepoolest käigus ning see andis turgudel taas suurema optimismisüsti. Idee kohaselt kavatsetakse kapitaliseerida Euroopa Investeerimispanga (EIB) poolt loodavat eriotstarbelist juriidilist keha, mis hakkaks väljastama võlakirjasid ning sellest saadud rahaga kokku ostma abi vajavate valitsuste võlakirjasid. Pankadele antakse aga võimalus vahetada oma perifeeriariikide võlakirjapositsioonid EIBi poolt loodava juriidilise keha emiteeritud kõrgema reitinguga võlakirjade vastu, et nende tagatisel EKPst laenu saada. Plaan avalikustatakse ametlikult alles siis, kui kõik euroala valitsused on EFSFi uued tingimused ratifitseerinud, seniks aga tuleb EKPl pakkuda turgudele vajalikku likviidsust. Bloombergi artikli kohaselt on järgmisel EKP kohtumisel laual mitmete vanade kriisiaegsete likviidsusmeetmete taastamine ning turg hindab praeguseks 90%lise tõenäosusega ka 50 baaspunktilist intresside langetamist.
Turuosaliste fookus püsib rohkem poliitikute ja keskpankurite sõnavõttudele, eriti päeva esimeses pooles, kui erilisi makrouudiseid oodata pole. Õhtupoole aga kuuleme, milline oli USA tarbijausalduse indeks septembris (kell 17.00) ja kuidas muutus Richmond Fedi küsitluse järgi töötleva tööstuse ettevõtete arvamus ärikeskkonna osas.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,6% kõrgemal ja Euroopa on avanemas ligi 2%lise tõusuga. -
Mul oleks LHV team-ile palve, et need hommikul välja toodud oodatavad makrouudised siis vastavalt nende avalikuks tulekule ka päevateema all ära toodaks. Üldjuhul on seda ka tehtud, kuid eile näiteks Dallase FED indeksit ei toodud. Tänan.
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AGM, üldjuhul üritame olulist makrot ka siin kajastada aga eile jäi tõepoolest see välja toomata. Aga nagu eilses börsipäevas juba tagantjärgi märgiti, siis mitmed Dallas Fedi subindeksid andsid positiivseid signaale, kuid üsna oluline väljavaate indeks muutus negatiivseks ja vajus sellega madalaimale tasemele alates 2009.a aprillist.
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GE sheff Immelt rääkis just Bloombergis, et nemad näevad "robust demand-i" oma toodetele ja eriti infrastruktuuritoodete osas.
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Obama rääkis töökohtade loomisest infrastruktuuri valdkonnas.
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Doug Kass: I am taking a small short rental in Spy now at 118.25 to offset a portion of my long book - after a 65 pt rise from monday morning lows.
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Citi tõstab täna Bunge Limited (BG) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale ja hinnasihi $ 80 pealt $ 88 peale.
Upgrading Bunge Shares to Buy — We are upgrading Bunge shares from a Hold, Speculative (2S) rating to a Buy, Speculative (1S) rating, as we see significant value following the 24% decline in the stock over the past two months, which we view as being overdone, and has left the stock trading below book value at 0.6x.
Key Takeaway — While Bunge’s current price to book valuation has corrected to 2008 levels, we see the circumstances as strikingly different on several levels, beginning with the composition of the Bunge portfolio, which included Brazilian wholesale fertilizer operations in 2008 that were eventually sold in 2010. These operations represented a significant drag on Bunge’s earnings in 2009, due to significant declines in global fertilizer prices, and it is our belief that a weakening outlook for this portion of the business represented a major contributor to the significant decline in Bunge’s share price during late 2008. Moreover, 2008 featured a decline in global oilseed consumption, which contrasts the current environment in which the USDA is projecting +3.4% growth for global oilseed consumption over the next 12 months.
Analüütikud juhivad tähelepanu sellele, et samal ajal kui aktsia valuatsioon on langenud 2008. aasta tasemete juurde, siis täna on olukord märksa erinevam võrreldes toonasega. Tookord mõjutasid firma kasumit mitmed asjaolud, millest üheks oli väetisehinna järsk langus. Lisaks eelnevale langes 2008. aastal ka globaalne nõudlus õliseemnete järele, aga täna prognoositakse järgmise aasta aasta jooksul õliseemnete nõudluse kasvu 3,4%.
Recent Brazilian Devaluation a Significant Catalyst — We see the recent devaluation in the Brazilian Real as favorable to Bunge given its position as a major agricultural exporter out of Brazil, where its local costs in US dollars are declining, but its revenues are unchanged as global ag. products trade in US dollars. At current spot rates, we believe this could represent a 40c benefit to 2012 EPS and is likely to serve as a catalyst in unlocking the considerable value we see in BG shares.
Veel mängib firma kasuks viimase aja Brasiilia reaali odavnemine USA dollari vastu ning võttes arvesse praeguse hetketuru hindu võib see analüütikute hinnangul lisada 2012. aasta EPS-le $ 0,40.
Tegu pole küll väga tugeva calliga, aga samas võiks/peaks täna turg antud upgrade`i soosima, sest nii nagu paljud teised aktsiad on ka BG hiljuti tugeva müügisurve all olnud ning arvestades sellega, et Citi analüütikud annavad aktsiale ka ilusa hinnasihi, võiks ostjates huvi tekkida küll. Arvestada tuleks ka sellega, et BG aktsia näol pole tegemist väga suure liikujaga. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FTK +7.1%, OKS +4%, WAG +2.3%, OKE +2.3% (light volume).
M&A news: IDCC +3.3% (announces strategic alternatives process is ongoing), FDO +0.7% (ticking higher on M&A speculation), RLRN (halted, enters into amendment to merger agreement with Permira Funds; public shareholders to receive $16.60 per share in cash; co-founders will receive $15/share in cash).
Financial related names showing strength: DB +6.8%, ING +6.1%, CS +5.4%, NBG +4%, BCS +3.2%, LYG +3.2%, MS +2.7%, C +2.7%, RBS +2.5%, STD +2.3%, HBC +2.1%, GS +1.9%, BAC +1.5%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLW +8.5%, PAAS +7.6%, SLV +7.3%, MCP +6.1%, EGO +5.6%, KGC +4.8%, TCK +4.2%, EXK +4%, AU +3.9%, AUY +3.8%, HL +3.1%, MT +3%, GDX +2.9%, BHP +2.9%, BBL +2.9%, RIO +2.3%.
Other news: CLSN +7.1% (ticking higher, Mangrove Partners Fund discloses 6.3% stake in 13D filing; expressed its desire for the Company to provide a meaningful update on the Thermodox trial), SQNS +7.1% (the co and Huawei jointly announced that they would begin a large scale trial in Shenzhen), EK +5.2% (modestly rebounding on light volume), THTI +5.1% (thinly traded, announces publication of 'encouraging' ELND005 Phase 2 clinical study data in Alzheimer's disease), GEO +3.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MEAS +3.1% (will replace MedCath in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), EQY +2.6% (announces the strategic sale of 36 shopping centers for $473 million, upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), RENN +2.6% (announces acquisition of Online Video Site 56.com), IMGN +1.7% and CLR +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CLF +1.7% (Cliffs Natural Resources to explore strategic options for renewaFUEL), BA +0.5% (positive mention in Barron's article), .
Analyst comments: AFFY +4.5% (upgraded to Strong Buy at WBB Securities), POT +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities), GEL +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), BG +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), SYK +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ACW -3% (light volume), IDTI -2.5% (ticking lower).
M&A related: NDN -3.4% (M&A speculation related to potential lost bidder).
Other news: KEYW -21% (informed that the systems integration contract has been awarded to a competitor), BIOD -15.4% (reports top-line results from pump study of experimental insulins; the two Biodel formulations did not meet the company's target product profile and, therefore, will not be advanced into Phase 2 clinical testing), GSVC -1.1% (thinly traded, priced follow-on offering of 1.9 mln shares of its common stock at $14.15/share). -
BG koos oleks SZYM, kes sellega võiks minna. Koostöö omavahel, see ka pihta saanud nagu kogu turg. Üsna kaugelt võetud, aga ehk mingi viivitusega?
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huvitav, et EIB ise ei tea asjast midagi :)
The European Investment Bank says it maintains “no bailout” stance; has not been approached and has no plans to be involved in special purpose vehicle in connection with the EFSF
According to the EIB, "there have been media reports about a potential involvement of the EIB in a special purpose vehicle in connection with the EFSF, for the purpose of bailouts. The EIB has not been approached and has no plans to be involved in this. The EIB will continue to focus on its mission which is financing viable investment projects." -
September Consumer Confidence 45.4 vs 46.6 Briefing.com consensus; August 45.2
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Richmond Fedi töötleva tööstuse indeks -6 vs oodatud -11 (august -10).
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Research In Motion (RIMM) pops on increased volume; strength attributed to chatter that Icahn could take a stake
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Kuna täna on selline päev, mil oleks võinud enam-vähem kõigile aktsiatele upgrade`i sildi kaela riputada, siis ei erinenud ka BG kuidagi teistest ning aktsia on teinud kena ralli.
BG avanes $ 58,95 pealt ja peale esimest kiiret hüpet $ 59,70 kanti, tuli aktsia punkti võrra alla tagasi ning jätkas sealt oma tõusu. hetkel kaupleb BG $ 61,30 kandis, 7,4% plusspoolel. -
Goldman Sachs (GS): Meredith Whitney cuts GS Q3 estimate to $0.31 from $3.39 (vs $1.13 consensus)
Cuts FY12 est to $7.85 from $15.30 (vs $15.09 consensus). -
FT artikkel on turud tagasi maapeale toonud, kajastades erimeelsusi selles osas, kui suure mahakirjutamise peaks Kreeka võlakirjade pealt tegema erasektor ning teiseks seda, et veel alles üsna hiljuti järgmiste aastate laenuvajaduseks hinnatud 109 miljardit on ühtäkki kasvanud 172 miljardile eurole ja potentsiaalselt isegi üle selle.
Via Zeohedge:
Because of the recent economic downturn and Greece’s slow implementation of austerity measures, officials estimate Athens’ funding needs over the next three years have grown beyond the €172bn forecast this summer. The scale of the shortfall will be determined by international lenders over the next few weeks. -
JBL
Jabil Circuit Inc
Reports Q4 $0.62 v $0.56e, R$4.28B v $4.2Be
• Guides Q1 $0.62-0.70 v $0.61e, R$4.3-4.5B v $4.4Be
• - Q4 Gross Margin 7.7% v 7.4% y/y
• - CEO: Demand for our expertise in managing global supply chain networks remains robust, especially now as customers increasingly focus on growth in developing economies.
Öelge nüüd, kas on halvad numbrid? -
Eks see on jälle üks näide, kus mikro ja makro näitavad eri pilti.
