Börsipäev 30. september
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Tänase makrokalendri olulisemad uudised jäävad teisele poole Atlandit, kui kell 15.30 raporteeritakse USA augustikuu isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutus. Chicago PMI aitab analüütikutel järgmise nädala ISM ootustes vajaduse korral muutusi teha (kell 16.45) ja päevale paneb punkti Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi septembri lõplik näit (16.55).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,6% punases, Euroopa on aga avanemas umbes samasuguse kaotusega. -
Täna avalikustatud Hiina HSBC töötleva tööstuse septembri lõplik näit kujunes pisut paremaks võrreldes esialgse hinnanguga, kerkides 49,4 punkti pealt 49,9 punktile. Kuigi tegemist on positiivse arenguga, siis näitaja jääb siiski kolmandat kuud järjest alla 50 punkti (pikim periood alates 2009. aastast). Homme avalikustatakse ametlik PMI indeks ning konsensus ootab kerget paranemist tasemelt 50,9 augustis tasemele 51,1 septembris.
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Arenenud riikide olukorra kõrval tuleks tähelepanelikult jälgida ka seda, mis toimub arenevates riikides, mille kasv globaalset majandust veepeal hoiab. Nagu allolevatelt joonistelt näha, siis ka seal on toimunud töötlevas tööstuses tugev jahenemine, seda eriti Brasiilias. Sestap on ka toorained viimasel ajal allapoole tulnud ning juba mõnda aega surve all olnud ka luksuskaupade tootjad.
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Eurotsooni CPI septembris üllatavalt kõrge 3,0% YoY vs 2,5% augustis (konsensuse prognoos püsis 2,5% peal). Ja kui turg ootab järgmise nädala EKP kohtumiselt juba 50 baaspunktist kärbet, siis tänane statistika peaks seda ootust veidi jahutama.
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Viimasel ajal palju kõneainet pakkunud Netflix (NFLX) aktsial on head võimalused saada endale Wall Streeti kõige vihatuma aktsia tiitel. Aktsia on oma tippudest kukkunud juba üle 60% ja eile lisas müügisurvele veel vunki juurde Amazon (AMZN)-i ja Microsoft (MSFT) teadaanne uutest konkureerivatest tootearendustest.
Samas hellitavad paljud turuosalised lootust, et NFLX-i laienemine Ladina-Ameerikasse päästab päeva, sest just seal oodatakse kasutajate arvu kiiret kasvu.
Tänane Bloomberg kirjutab aga, et ka Ladina-Ameerika ei pruugi ettevõtet uuesti tippu tagasi upitada, sest lisaks kohalikule konkurentsile esinevad seal ka mitmed kultuurilised eripärad. Esiteks on inimestel väiksemad sissetulekud ning väga paljudel Ladina-Ameerika inimestel pole krediitkaarti, mis on NFLX-i peamine maksevahend.
Janney Montgomery Scotti analüütik Tony Wible ütleb, et tõenäoliselt on firma sunnitud oma hindu Ladina-Ameerikas alandama, sest ta ei näe ühtegi põhjust, miks peaks inimesed oma odavamast kaabeltelevisoonist kallima NFLX-i teenuste vastu loobuma. Teiseks pole Wible sõnul Netflix seal regioonis nii tuntud kui firma oli Kanadas ja seetõttu saab turule sisenemine olema vägagi keeruline, sest osades riikides on ees ootamas konkurendid, mis omavad monopoli staatust. -
Societe Generale analüütik Albert Edwards ütleb, et vaatamata juba aset leidnud müügile on turul kukkumisruumi veel küllaga. Nimelt väidab ta, et SP500 võib siit veel 65% langeda.
Tema sõnul kuuleme me aina rohkem jutte sellest, kuidas aktsiate valuatsioon on muutunud väga odavaks, aga keegi ei tundu arvestavat sellega, et firmade kasumid on oluliselt vähenemas ning see teeb USA aktsiate valuatsiooni hetkel üsna kõrgeks. Edwardsi negatiivset nägemust USA aktsiate suhtes väljendab ehk kõige paremini tema SP500 $ 40 hinnasiht. -
Edwards'i track record pole muide kiita. Tema 2009. aasta arusaamade järgi oleks me praeguseks pidanud elama teist aastat deflatsioonilises tuumatalves. Ta ei taha arvestada sellega, et deflatsioon ei ole objektiivne paratamatus ning selle vältimiseks tehakse kõik, et pinge eemalduks süsteemist teisiti.
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Nelli Janson
Societe Generale analüütik Albert Edwards ütleb, et vaatamata juba aset leidnud müügile on turul kukkumisruumi veel küllaga. Nimelt väidab ta, et SP500 võib siit veel 65% langeda.
Tema sõnul kuuleme me aina rohkem jutte sellest, kuidas aktsiate valuatsioon on muutunud väga odavaks, aga keegi ei tundu arvestavat sellega, et firmade kasumid on oluliselt vähenemas ning see teeb USA aktsiate valuatsiooni hetkel üsna kõrgeks. Edwardsi negatiivset nägemust USA aktsiate suhtes väljendab ehk kõige paremini tema SP500 $ 40 hinnasiht.
SPY $40 ? -
ta vast pakub S&P500 EPSi 40USD, praegu kusagil 90 USD kandis?
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Samas peab ütlema, et sellised ülimalt negatiivsed prognoosid on praegu turul valitsevaid meeleolusid arvesse võttes ülimalt tõhusad ning oma eesmärki (paanikat külvata) täidavad ka väga hästi.
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Kuna ta ütleb, et SP500 võib siit veel 65% kukkuda, siis ma eeldaksin küll, et sel juhul nende SPY hinnasihiks ongi $ 40.
Despite the big selloff, he's still convinced that everyone is too optimistic. Ultimately, he sees the market losing about 65% of its value from here.
In phase 3 of the Ice Age we would apply a 7-8x forward multiple to recession-depressed forward earnings of say $70-75/sh. That gets us pretty close our 400 S&P target. -
Ei, ta pakub S&P 400 bottomit siiski.
S&P at 400 is almost inevitable.
Zerohedge lemmikanalüütik ju :) -
Zerost saab Rosenbergi ja Edwards'i track'i hästi kätte. Ei, kahtlemata geniaalsed mehed mõlemad, kuid skepsis on track'i arvestades teretulnud.
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Karum6mm
Zerost saab Rosenbergi ja Edwards'i track'i hästi kätte. Ei, kahtlemata geniaalsed mehed mõlemad, kuid skepsis on track'i arvestades teretulnud.
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-is-dow-5000-really-possible-2010-6
stiilinäide ka Rosenbergilt, 2010 suvel kindlas kõneviisis languse ennustamine tollase Dow põhjades, täna on Dow endiselt ca 10% kõrgemal -
ECRI juht Lakshman Achutan oli täna CNBC eetris ning tuginedes paljudele juhtivatele indikaatoritele, on nüüd üsna veendunud, et USA tabab peagi uus majandussurutis. Link videole
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August PCE Prices- Core M/M +0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to % from +0.2%
Core Y/Y +1.6%; Headline Y/Y +2.9%
August Personal Spending +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
August Personal Income -0.1% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +0.3% -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ORN -12.8%, IR -9.9%, MU -7.7%, XRTX -5.4%, BCDS -2.9%, (light volume), .
Financial related names showing weakness: DB -7% (reports it may lower its expectations for generating EUR 10 bln), CS -5.4%, ING -4.9%, BCS -4.6%, UBS -4.5%, HBC -4.4%, STD -2.3%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -3.3%, RIO -2.7%, GFI -2.5%, AU -2.3%, BBL -2%, BHP -1.4%, SLV -1.1%.
China internet related names under continued pressure: BIDU -5.6%, DANG -4.6%, YOKU -3%, SINA -2.7%, SOHU -2.2%, QIHU -1.6%,
Other news: ARRY -9.2% (announced topline results of a randomized phase 2 study of Selumetinib in patients with KRAS-mutant non-small cell lung cancer), IOC -5% (light volume, to seek internationally recognized LNG operating and equity partner for Papua New Guinea project), TEX -5% and CAT -0.9% (trading lower following IR guidance), HPQ -1.3% (waiting until year-end to complete spin off, according to reports).
Analyst comments: SDRL -3.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CAMP +10.5% (light volume).
M&A news: LVLT +2.6% and GLBC +0.7% (Level 3 and Global Crossing receive regulatory approvals).
Other news: HRBN +8.3% (files amended 10-K, commences mailing of definitive proxy materials for special meeting of shareholders to vote on $24 per share cash "going private" transaction), GERN +5.1% (appoints John A. Scarlett as CEO and Director), YGE +4% (announces $100 mln share repurchase program), SQNS +2.3% (ticking higher, reports lock-up agreements extended), MHP +1.4% (McGraw-Hill and CME Group in advances talks to combine index businesses), KGC +1% (announces investment in White Bear Resources), PANL +0.7% (signs OLED technology license agreement with Pioneer Corporation for lighting), BAYRY +0.2% (Phase III study of Bayer's Rivaroxaban in patients with acute coronary syndrome meets primary efficacy endpoint). -
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) announces $100 mln share repurchase program. Emiteeritud aktsiate arv 157.639 mln
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Always Look on the Bright Side of the Market
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 30, 2011 | 9:10 AM
"If you don't like something change it; if you can't change it, change the way you think about it." --Mary Engelbreit
After an unusual day of trading Thursday, the indices are set to gap down to start the final day of the third quarter. It has been the worst quarter for the market in a while, but what made it much worse for many traders was the randomness of the action. Stock picking has become largely irrelevant; the only thing that matters lately is the latest headline about Europe.
The action yesterday was a particularly good example of the challenges this market has presented recently. We gapped up initially on news of a German vote dealing with a potential TARP-like plan in Europe. We had a little extra upside generated by a better-than-expected weekly unemployment report, but there were questions about seasonal adjustments.
After yesterday's strong open, we trended down most of the day, but it was unusual that big-cap technology names like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Priceline (PCLN) were sold aggressively while the rest market mostly remained in positive territory. These stocks have been the best leadership we've had lately, and they tend to be the most likely to benefit from end-of-the-quarter window dressing, so it was particularly unusual to see them under so much pressure.
There was talk that the pressure was due to a large momentum hedge fund closing its doors and liquidating positions. That makes sense and explains the action, but the selling was severe enough to suggest that this fund may not be alone and that there are others raising cash as they anticipate redemptions after they report what is going to be a lousy third quarter.
I'm sure there are traders who are navigating this market environment well, but those I hear from are struggling. The primary problem is the only style that works right now is short-term trading of indices in response to the news headlines. If you are a stock picker, momentum trader, value buyer or just about anything else, this market is simply not offering many opportunities. Even if you are a short-term market timer, the whipsaws have been so severe lately that the chances of waking up on the wrong side of the market are extremely high.
Traders like the idea of making money on a consistent basis but, unfortunately, it just doesn't work that way. For many traders the 80-20 rule applies. They will see 80% of their profits in 20% of the time, and they will make little progress the other 80% of the time. Even if you accept that as fact, it can still be frustrating if you aren't making any progress, especially when you worry that it is not going to improve any time soon.
The one thing that always makes me optimistic when dealing with a difficult market is that I know, without a doubt, that conditions will eventually change. That is the one great certainty about the stock market. So if you just stick with it and navigate through the rough times without losing your capital, you'll be in good shape to make good money again.
Even though the market looks poor, I am optimistic that this is going to lead to a good trading setup for the end of the year. Hopefully the situation in Europe will clarify, one way or the other, and the negativity will give way to a healthy purge of the poison in the system. Corporate earnings have remained quite good overall, and there are good values out there, so when the mood does change, the conditions will be in place for upside momentum.
Meanwhile, keep slogging away. We have little choice but to stay focused on defense and maybe knocking out some shorter-term trades if we want to gamble on the headlines.
If the market was easy, it wouldn't be so potentially profitable. -
September Chicago PMI 60.4 vs 54.0 Briefing.com consensus; July 56.5
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Erko Rebane
September Chicago PMI 60.4 vs 54.0 Briefing.com consensus; July 56.5
NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Thomson Reuters/University of
Michigan Surveys of Consumers' final index of September
consumer sentiment rose to 59.4 from 57.8 in the preliminary
September report, according to a report released on Friday.
Economists in a Reuters survey expected a final September
sentiment reading of 57.8. -
numbrid on huvitavad, siin foorumis käib väike diskussioon hard data ja soft data lõhest ja sellest kas reaalne makro peaks pöörduma põhjades kolistavate ootuste suunas või äkki ootused tulevad üles ja reaalne makro ei ole üldse nii kehv
hetkel +2 viimase seisukoha pooldajatele -
Ma olen ka olnud see teise seisukoha mees, kuid turud panid selle data peale veel nõksu alla :-)
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Suurem osa on ikka ülekaalukalt veel sellel lainel, kus bad news on terrible news ja good news on bad news.
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Fed's Bullard out saying the fed 'is not now, or ever, out of ammunition'; says Fed has 'potent tools'
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By Langi Chiang | Reuters – Fri, Sep 30, 2011
China's factory activity picked up in September for a second month in a row and export orders strengthened, offering some reassurance that the world's second-largest economy can weather the global economic turmoil.
The official purchasing managers' index showed inflation pressures eased slightly, but probably not enough for Beijing to relax in its battle against soaring prices.
China's PMI inched up to 51.2 from August's 50.9, largely in line with a median forecast of 51.3 in a Reuters poll.
The new export orders index rebounded to 50.9 from 48.3 in August, which was a 28-month low. The 50-point mark is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. -
Praegune "20 aastat hiljem" oli kihtsalt kuld - Lennart Meri jutt saate lõpus, lihtsalt pisar tuli silma... Oli ikka mees.
